Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 14 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

Watch Alex figure out this deal on "Deduce Early, Deduce Often."

♠ A K Q 5  ♥ A J 8 7 4  ♦ Q 2  ♣ 6 5

A 4-5-2-2 minimum is awkward for playing forcing notrump responses. After one heart--one notrump, I have no suitable rebid. Fortunately I don't have a minimum. I have 16 HCP, so I can sidestep the problem by opening a strong notrump. One notrump is the new Flannery.

I open one notrump, and everyone passes. West leads the three of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 4 2 ♥ 6 5 2 ♦ J 10 8 ♣ K Q 9 7 4
	♦ 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K Q 5 ♥ A J 8 7 4 ♦ Q 2 ♣ 6 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 NT
(All pass)

West led his lowest diamond, so diamonds are probably four-four. But the robots do like three-card-suit leads against notrump, so I can't rule out a three-five break.

I have four tricks off the top. If hearts break, I can set up two tricks in hearts to come to six. Then a trick in either clubs or diamonds will give me a seventh for plus 90. Is that good enough? What will happen at the tables where South opens one heart?

North will raise to two hearts. If hearts break, those who pass will score 110. I'm going to lose to those tables unless I score 120. But I suspect some will make a game try and go minus. Plus 90 will beat those pairs. So, while I would like to score 120, I'm not going to risk my contract to do it.

I play low from dummy. East wins with the ace, and I play the deuce. East shifts to the jack of spades.

What's that about? Why didn't he continue diamonds? Perhaps he decided diamonds can just as easily be played from partner's side, but if he needs to put a spade through, now's his chance.

One conclusion I can draw with some confidence is that diamonds are four-four. If East has five diamonds and the club ace, he would continue diamonds to set up his suit. And if he had five diamonds without the club ace, he might duck to preserve communication, playing his partner for king third.

Which spade honor should I win with? If I want to fool West, the best play is the queen, the card I'm known to hold. If I want to fool East, the best play is the king. If I win with the queen, East will know I have ace-king-queen. 

I'm not sure which hand I want to fool. But fooling East might be difficult, since West can simply give attitude to deny an honor. So it looks better to play the queen.

I play the queen, and West discourages with the three.

Now I duck a heart. Four--nine--deuce--queen. East continues spades, leading the ten. That's annoying. That kills my side entry to the heart suit, so now I can't afford to try to drop king-queen doubleton of hearts in East's hand. I have to duck a heart to keep communication.

I win with the spade ace; West plays the six. I duck another heart. West wins with the ten, and East follows with the three. Good. No king-queen doubleton.

West cashes the diamond king; East plays the five. He continues a diamond to dummy's jack; East plays the nine. The diamond jack is my seventh trick. We've reached this position, with dummy on play:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 6 ♦ -- ♣ K Q 9 7 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K ♥ A J 8 ♦ -- ♣ 6 5

Can I find an eighth trick to score 120? My only chance is to drive the club ace and hope they can't cash a diamond.

I decided at trick two that diamonds were four-four, so that's not a likely scenario. But I also decided that if East did have five diamonds, he couldn't have the club ace. So playing a club can't hurt. While I'm technically risking my contract by driving the club ace (which I said I wasn't going to do), the risk is an illusion. East simply can't have five diamonds and the club ace and have shifted to a spade at trick two.

I lead the club king. West takes his ace and cashes a diamond. I have the rest. Making one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 4 2 ♥ 6 5 2 ♦ J 10 8 ♣ K Q 9 7 4
WEST Robot ♠ 8 6 3 ♥ K 10 9 ♦ K 7 4 3 ♣ A 10 8		EAST Robot ♠ J 10 9 7 ♥ Q 3 ♦ A 9 6 5 ♣ J 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K Q 5 ♥ A J 8 7 4 ♦ Q 2 ♣ 6 5

So what happened at the tables where South opened one heart? North raised to two. Six players passed; seven made a game try and got too high. Plus 90 scored 56%.

What should you do over two hearts? Is your hand worth a game try or not? 

A six-loser hand is often worth a game try. But if no doubleton in partner's hand is useful, you should treat a six-loser hand as seven losers. Here, a doubleton minor is of no value to you, and a doubleton spade duplicates your queen. So the hand is not worth an invitation.

Another approach is to apply Culbertson's Rule: Give partner a perfect minimum. If you're cold on normal breaks, then invite. A perfect minimum for a single raise is two kings (or an ace and a queen) and a useful doubleton. Partner can't have a useful doubleton, so we'll give him two kings. Opposite the diamond king and the heart king, you aren't cold, so you aren't worth an invitation. You need the heart queen instead of the jack.

Culbertson's Rule was devised for slam bidding. But it also works for game bidding at matchpoints and for non-vulnerable game bidding at IMPs. Don't over-apply it, however. It's not aggressive enough for vulnerable game bidding at IMPs. 

One of the recurring themes of Gargoyle Chronicles is that you should spend most of your energy during the play asking yourself "What is going on?" So whenever someone does something unexpected, that's the time you should stop and think. Don't wait until you have a critical decision.

This deal is a good example. The spade shift at trick two should set off an alarm. If you stop and ask yourself "What is going on?" it's easy to conclude that East can't have five diamonds and the club ace. If you wait until you're wondering "Who has the club ace?" it's much harder.