Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 14 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither side vulnerable

Watch Hope discuss this deal on our YouTube channel:

♠ J 7 6  ♥ A K J 10 6 3  ♦ A 3  ♣ 7 3

Three passes to me. In fourth seat, a weak two-bid typically shows a full opening. Even so, this hand may be a bit too good. If I had the spade suit, I would just open one. But with the heart suit, I want to make it hard for the opponents to come in. And, with seven losers, I'm not too worried about missing a game. So I open two hearts.

Everyone passes, and LHO leads the jack of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 8 ♥ 7 ♦ J 9 2 ♣ K Q 10 8 4 2
	♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 7 6 ♥ A K J 10 6 3 ♦ A 3 ♣ 7 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

I cover, and East takes the ace. It makes no difference which card I play. From East's perspective, the lead could be a singleton or a doubleton whichever card I choose. I choose the three for purely psychological reasons. Declarers typically "falsecard" by playing high in this situation. For no particular reason--that's just what they do. If the lead is indeed a singleton and I play the three, East might wonder where why I didn't falsecard. Of course, such mind games against computers are pointless. But I always pretend I'm playing against humans if it doesn't matter--just to keep in practice.

East returns the five of clubs. West follows with the nine, and I win in dummy. We've reached this position, with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 8 ♥ 7 ♦ J 9 2 ♣ K 8 4 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 7 6 ♥ A K J 10 6 3 ♦ A 3 ♣ --

How should I play hearts. A finesse gains only if East has specifically queen third. If he has queen doubleton, it's dropping anyway. If he has queen fourth, I have an unavoidable trump loser.

When does finessing lose? I might go down two. If West wins the queen, leads a spade to partner, and gets a club back, I'm OK. I can simply pitch a loser. But suppose they cash three spades, then East plays a fourth one. I can pitch a diamond on that trick, but now the last club hurts. I may lose to a trump promotion.

That's quite a parlay, though. West must have the heart queen. East must have long spades. West must find the spade switch rather than a diamond. And even if all that comes to pass, I'm still OK if trumps are three-three.

Queen third of hearts onside is half of the three-three breaks (18%). The parlay requires the heart queen on my left and spade length on my right. That's 25%. If we then eliminate the three-three heart breaks, we're already at less than 18%. And I haven't even taken into account the fact that West might not find the spade switch. So the finesse is considerably better than cashing ace-king.

There is another possible line, however. I can cash the ten of clubs and pitch a spade. If West has queen third of hearts, he's ruffing with a natural trump trick, so I compress my losers. Taking the finesse gains when East has queen third. Taking the pitch gains when West has queen third. Is it simply a toss-up?

Not quite. If West has queen third of hearts and a doubleton spade, he can ruff the club, then play spades to promote his queen of hearts. That tips the odds in favor of the finesse.

I play a heart to the jack. It holds. I cash the ace and king of hearts. They split three-three. That's eight tricks. I've made my contract. Is there any scenario where I can take an overtrick?

I don't see how. But let's cash some hearts and see what happens. West pitches the four of diamonds. That's probably low from five, making West 3-3-5-2. East pitches his last club. Yes, I guess he doesn't need that card.

On the next heart, West pitches the three of spades; East, the five. West has pitched down to a doubleton spade. That's promising.

On the last heart, West pitches the five of diamonds. I've been pitching clubs from dummy, so I'm down to three-three in the pointed suits. Jack-nine third of diamonds may prove useful, so I pitch a spade. East pitches the seven of diamonds. We're down to this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 ♥ -- ♦ J 9 2 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 7 6 ♥ -- ♦ A 3 ♣ --

Is there any way to manufacture a trick here? Maybe. If I've read the the cards correctly, West is down to two spades and three diamonds. If he holds two spade honors and honor-ten third of diamonds, then the layout looks something like this:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 ♥ -- ♦ J 9 2 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ A Q ♥ -- ♦ K 10 x ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ K x x ♥ -- ♦ Q x ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 7 6 ♥ -- ♦ A 3 ♣ --

I can exit a spade. If West cashes two spades and exits with a small diamond, I can insert dummy's nine. East will play his honor and I can take my ace and lead toward dummy's jack. Of course, West can avoid this by cashing two spades and exiting with his diamond honor. But it's worth a shot.

I exit with a spade. West wins with the queen and cashes the ace. He now leads... the six of diamonds. I play the nine from dummy. East plays the queen. I win and play another diamond. West has king-ten left, so I make an overtrick.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 8 ♥ 7 ♦ J 9 2 ♣ K Q 10 8 4 2
WEST Robot ♠ A Q 3 ♥ 9 8 5 ♦ K 10 6 5 4 ♣ J 9		EAST Robot ♠ K 5 4 2 ♥ Q 4 2 ♦ Q 8 7 ♣ A 6 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 7 6 ♥ A K J 10 6 3 ♦ A 3 ♣ 7 3

I'm surprised. Leading the diamond king instead of a low one in the end position should not have been a hard play for the robots to find. 

Plus 140 is worth 100%. It turns out the overtrick was immaterial. Any plus score was worth 100%. If you open one heart, as everyone else did, the auction continues one notrump--two hearts, and your opponent doesn't let you play it. And by opponent, I don't mean LHO or RHO. It's your center-hand opponent who doesn't let you play it. CHO bids three clubs, and you go can no longer go plus.

Opening two hearts works not because it shuts up East-West but because it shuts up partner.

In Gargoyle Chronicles, the rule is that, during the play, we discuss only what I thought about during the play. If I overlooked something, that waits until the post mortem. And I did overlook something.

At the critical juncture above, I said taking the heart finesse works when East has queen third and pitching on the club works when West has queen third. But there's another case where taking the pitch works: when West has queen doubleton of hearts. If I finesse, I go down. If I take the pitch, I later drop the heart queen and take eight tricks. Playing for the drop works, too. But I already rejected that line. 

So the finesse is right when East has queen third of hearts. Taking the pitch is right if West has queen third or queen doubleton (minus some fringe cases where he gets a trump promotion). So I should have taken the pitch and gone down. I fell just terrible saddling the opponents with a bad board by misplaying the hand. But that's life.

Next week, we're doing something a bit different. Jazlene Ong analized one of my sets over on her JazPlaysBridge YouTube channel. So, over the next eight weeks, I'll be returning the favor by analyzing one of her matches from the Asian Mind Games.