Challenge Match - Jazlene vs. Phillip - Board 5

Jazlene bid slam on board four and picked up 12 imps. I'm trailing by seven imps going into

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K 10  ♥ K 8  ♦ A 10 9 8  ♣ K 9 8 7

Two passes to me.

Despite holding only 17 HCP, this hand is too good to open with a strong notrump. My HCP are all in aces and kings, and I hold two tens and no card lower than a seven. K&R point count evaluates the hand as 18.9 points. 

Still, I've never had much success opening one of a minor instead of one notrump with hands that the Work point count undervalues. Yes, sometimes you reach game or slam that you would miss after a one notrump opening. But that's aiming for a narrow target. More often, it seems, you get a poor result by letting the opponents in at the one-level, especially at this vulnerability. Since partner is a passed hand, at least I don't have to worry about missing a slam. So I decide to make the tactical underbid of one notrump and hold my breath.

LHO passes, and partner bids four hearts, a transfer to spades. I can let my breath out now. I bid four spades, and everyone passes. LHO leads the deuce of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 8 7 3 2 ♥ A 7 ♦ Q 5 4 3 ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 ♥ K 8 ♦ A 10 9 8 ♣ K 9 8 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 NT
Pass	4 ♥	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

If the lead is from jack third or fourth, I'm taking four diamond tricks. But the robots don't like leading from honors, so it's likely the lead is a singleton. I play low from dummy, East plays the jack, and I take my ace.

I can pick up four-zero trumps in either hand if I cash the ace first, so I cash it. West plays the five; East, the six. I continue with the spade king and both opponents follow. West held the jack.

It looks as if I'm losing the diamond king and the club ace to make five. If East has the ace of clubs, is there any way to convince him to duck when I lead the club jack from dummy? Maybe. If East thinks I'm missing the heart king, then dummy's heart is a loser. If he hops with the club ace and I have the club king, then the heart loser goes away. So he might duck, hoping I have king-ten and misguess.

At least a human East might. Robots never play for a misguess; they assume you're double dummy. But even if I'm double dummy, it could be right to duck. Say I have queen-ten of clubs. Then hopping allows me to take a ruffing finesse against West and pitch my heart loser.

This means if I want to make it dangerous for East to hop, I must keep the heart ace in dummy. If I lead a heart to the ace and play a club, he has no reason to duck. He can simply hop with the ace and play a heart.

So leading a heart to dummy can't possibly work. What about a spade? The problem with leading a spade to dummy is I now have no fast entry to my hand. If East is worried about losing a heart trick, he can hop with the club ace and shift to a heart. I can't get to my hand in time to take my putative pitch. 

Leading a heart to dummy doesn't work. Leading a spade to dummy is better, since it requires a tad more care on East's part. But it probably won't work either. A diamond is the only option left. Let's give it a try.

I play the eight of diamonds. West pitches the six of hearts, and I play low from dummy. East takes his diamond king and returns the diamond seven. Yes! Perfect! I overtake in dummy with the queen as West pitches the four of clubs. We've reaching the position I was aiming for:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 8 7 ♥ A 7 ♦ 5 ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 10 ♥ K 8 ♦ 10 ♣ K 9 8 7

Now when I lead the jack of clubs, East has a legitimate reason to duck. If I have queen-ten of clubs and no heart king, he must duck to stop the second overtrick.

I lead the club jack. East hops with the ace. Oh, well. I claim the balance. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 8 7 3 2 ♥ A 7 ♦ Q 5 4 3 ♣ J
WEST Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ Q J 10 6 5 4 ♦ 2 ♣ 6 4 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ 6 4 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ K J 7 6 ♣ A Q 10 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 ♥ K 8 ♦ A 10 9 8 ♣ K 9 8 7

East had ace-queen of clubs, so he had no temptation to duck. Still, I don't understand his diamond return after winning the king. Couldn't I have the same hand with the queen of hearts instead of the king, in which case he must shift to a heart?

The only reason I can think of to play a diamond is he thought I had forgotten to draw the last trump and his partner was ruffing. A priori, playing for the ruff is probably percentage. But I can't have that hand. Until we teach robots to draw inferences, their card play is never going to get above a beginner level.

My one notrump opening did keep the opponents out of the auction, although it probably didn't matter. I'm not sure why West didn't bid anyway. Though perhaps there isn't much point playing Cappelletti, where you announce to partner that you have a suit to bid but you aren't going to tell him which one. I would certainly overcall one notrump with two hearts if it were natural.

While my swindle didn't work, this hand is an excellent example of the necessity of looking at a deal through your opponent's eyes. Sneaking a club through has a better chance to work if you sit in your opponent's seat and imagine a scenario where ducking makes sense. 

This has become my favorite type of play problem. When I was a beginner, my favorite hands were winkles. But any fool can execute a winkle. Even a robot. Seeing a deal through your opponent's eyes is hard. And fun. And often more profitable than it was on this deal.

Now take a look at the deal from Jazlene's eyes at Jaz Plays Bridge. I suspect the board is a push and she's still up seven imps. We'll see.