Challenge Match - Jazlene vs. Phillip - Board 4

My match against Jazlene Ong continues. Board three was another push, so I'm still up the five imps I gained on board one. Now on to

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A Q  ♥ A K Q 5 4 2  ♦ A 10  ♣ Q 4 2

LHO and partner pass, and RHO opens with three spades.

My choices are four hearts and three notrump. If they lead a spade and hearts break, I have nine tricks in notrump. If they don't lead a spade, maybe dummy will have an entry in hearts. In any event, nine tricks rates to be easy in notrump. I might not have a tenth trick in hearts.

I know some would double with this hand, considering it too good for either three notrump or four hearts. Whether double makes sense or not depends on how you play this auction:

You	LHO	Partner	RHO
			3 ♠
Double	Pass	4 ♣/♦	Pass
4 ♥

If this auction shows a strong hand with an independent heart suit--a hand too good to overcall with four hearts, then double is the right call. But I don't believe that's what it should show. On the contrary, I believe this auction should deny an independent heart suit. It shows doubt about strain, not doubt about level. Typical hands would be:

♠ x x  ♥ A K x x x  ♦ A x x  ♣ A K x

or

♠ x x  ♥ A J 10 x x  ♦ A x  ♣ A K Q x

Obviously those of us who double and bid four hearts with these hands don't expect partner to pass four hearts with a bad hand and a singleton heart. Those who double with the hand I'm currently holding presumably do.

You can agree to play either way. But if you don't play that double shows doubt about strain, I think you are making a serious mistake. With an independent suit, there is always something you can bid, namely, your suit. While you may have to guess how high to bid it, you're never stuck for a bid. But what exactly are you supposed to do with my example hands if you can't double and follow with four hearts? You have no sensible call with a hand type that's quite common.

I'm not sure how the robots play. But I can't get into too much trouble if I bid three notrump, so that's what I do. LHO bids four spades, and partner doubles.

If partner has a little something, I can probably manage ten tricks in notrump. So at matchpoints, I would consider bidding four notrump. At IMPs that doesn't make much sense. It's unlikely we're beating four spades less than two, so if I pull to four notrump, I'm trying for a measly four-imp pickup. And the downside is huge. If they can run clubs or if hearts don't break and four notrump goes down, I'm losing 12 imps. Those aren't good odds. There is no vig in pulling a double to a game at IMPs when you can collect a game bonus by passing.

Pulling the double to six hearts, however, is another matter. Now at least I have some upside. What do I need for slam to be cold? King of diamonds, king of clubs isn't quite enough. I need the club jack or the queen of diamonds in addition. Even king of diamonds, ace of clubs isn't enough. I still need a slow trick in one of the minors. I also have no guarantee that hearts are solid, although partner's presumed spade singleton increases the odds that they are. Finally, there is the possibility that the defense can start with ace of clubs and a ruff.

In short, there are three ways bidding slam can be wrong: Partner has the wrong cards, hearts don't break, or the defense gets a ruff. While any one of those chances may be small, they add up. And, because of the pre-empt, bad breaks are more likely than they would be a priori. It's close. Add the jack of clubs to my hand and I would certainly bid six hearts. But with this hand I decide to defend.

I pass, LHO passes, and I lead the king of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 7 4 ♥ 9 8 ♦ K J 9 8 7 ♣ 8 7 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A Q ♥ A K Q 5 4 2 ♦ A 10 ♣ Q 4 2

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	Pass	Pass	3 ♠
3 NT	4 ♠	Double	(All pass)

Partner plays the three and declarer follows with the seven. I don't see any reason not to try to cash another heart. But before I do, I must decide what I'm going to do if declarer ruffs and plays a low diamond. If I intend to duck, I need to do so in tempo. I know my robot declarer won't pay any attention to my tempo, but it's good practice to pretend I'm playing against a human. Should I duck or not?

Hopping saves a trick if declarer is 7-1-1-4. But ducking won't cost the contract, and declarer is more likely to have a doubleton diamond than a singleton. So I intend to duck.

I continue with the queen of hearts. Partner plays the jack, and declarer ruffs with the spade three. One of these days, I'll figure out how to formulate a rule that partner's play on this trick is surrogate count--that is, count in diamonds--so I'll know for sure whether to duck or not. It's clearly the most important piece of information for me. But I'm not sure how to make an unambiguous rule for when it applies.

Declarer doesn't play a diamond, however. He leads the king of spades. That suggests declarer does have a singleton diamond. If he had a doubleton, why not try to reach dummy to finesse against the spade queen?

I win with the ace of spades as partner follows with the deuce. I shift to the deuce of clubs. Partner takes the ace, and declarer follows with the six. Partner continues with the club jack, and declarer takes the king. We've reached this position with declarer on lead:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 4 ♥ -- ♦ K J 9 8 7 ♣ 7
WEST Phillip ♠ Q ♥ A 5 4 2 ♦ A 10 ♣ Q

Declarer continues with the eight of spades to my queen, and partner pitches the three of diamonds.

That card is count--even from a robot. And it should show five, making declarer 7-1-1-4 with a stiff deuce of diamonds. If partner has four diamonds, he must have a spot higher than the three, and he should play it.

I know, however, that the robots are fond of bloodless count. With four, he would pitch his next-to-lowest diamond. Some unenlightened humans do that, too. It makes no sense. If you're going to signal, signal loudly. Either play your lowest card or play the highest one you can afford. What do you have to gain by playing a card partner might be unable to read?

Since the robots stubbornly refuse to listen to me on this matter, partner could easily have four diamonds. So I'm on my own. If declarer is 7-1-2-3, I should cash my club queen and lead a low diamond, making declarer guess. If he guesses right, he's down three and we collect 800. If he guesses wrong, we collect 1100. If he's 7-1-1-4, however, I must cash the diamond ace. If I underlead, he will hop with the king and get out for 500.

If I underlead, how likely is he to get it right? I would certainly bid three notrump with the diamond queen instead of the ace. And partner's auction would be the same. So I see no reason declarer shouldn't guess wrong. On the other hand, as I noted at trick two, declarer's failure to try to get to dummy for a trump finesse suggests he has a singleton diamond rather than a doubleton.

Another consideration is the risk vs. the reward. The difference between 500 and 800 could be worth more imps than the difference between 800 and 1100. If Jazlene is in game at the other table, trading plus 800 for plus 500 converts a four-imp win into a four-imp loss, for a net loss of eight imps. Converting 800 to 1100 converts a four-imp win to a ten-imp win for a net gain of only six imps. You don't need to know the IMP table off the top of your head to reach this conclusion. It's sufficient to know that, the way the IMP table is constructed, converting a gain into a loss is costly. If that's a possibility, trying to convert a gain into a larger gain is generally not worth the risk.

I cash the ace of diamonds, settling for plus 800.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 7 4 ♥ 9 8 ♦ K J 9 8 7 ♣ 8 7 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A Q ♥ A K Q 5 4 2 ♦ A 10 ♣ Q 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ 2 ♥ J 10 6 3 ♦ Q 6 3 2 ♣ A J 10 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K J 10 8 6 5 3 ♥ 7 ♦ 5 4 ♣ K 9 6

Declarer did have a doubleton diamond. Who knows if he would have guessed right or not had I underled?

We're making six hearts. Partner didn't have much, and it's a fine contract, so perhaps I was too conservative in passing the double. To check, I did a simulation using DealMaster Pro. If I give partner 8-10 HCP and specify spades are three-seven, six hearts makes 74% of the time. I'm not surprised it's a favorite, but I wasn't expecting it to be that much of a favorite. I clearly made an error in passing the double. How long will it be before DealMaster Pro comes out with a version that can be installed in your head? DealMaster Pro 7.0 - for Windows, Mac, or cerebrum.

I also made an error in the play in forgetting that slam was a possibility at the other table. If Jazlene is in six hearts, the odds on underleading the diamond ace change dramatically.

If declarer is 7-1-1-4, then six hearts is going down. Collecting 500 instead of 800 means I win 12 imps instead of 14, so the underlead risks practically nothing. But if declarer is 7-1-2-3, six hearts is making. Now I'm losing 12 imps if I collect 800. But if I underlead and declarer misguesses, I hold my loss to eight imps. In short, I'm risking two imps for a chance to collect six. Clearly the odds favor the underlead.

Again, you don't need to memorize the IMP table to reach this conclusion. It suffices to know that converting a win to a larger win or converting a loss to a larger loss generally makes little difference. Your primary goal at IMPs is to beat the other result or, if you can't, to get as close to the other result as possible. Even without knowing the actual imps at stake, we know that getting closer to 1430 will gain more imps than moving away from 1430 will lose.

So how did I do? Will Jazlene bid slam and obliterate my five-imp lead? Check out Jaz Plays Bridge to find out.