| ♠ A 9 8 3
♥ K J 8
♦ Q 6 5
♣ A 6 5 |
Two passes to me. In an attempt to produce random swings without having to work so hard, my team has switched to Acol. Right away this decision is paying off. I get to take a normal action, knowing it won't be reproduced at the other table. I open one notrump, 12 to 14. Everyone passes, and West leads the deuce of clubs.
| NORTH
♠ K Q 10 5 ♥ Q 6 3 ♦ 8 2 ♣ K 10 7 3 |
||
| SOUTH
♠ A 9 8 3 ♥ K J 8 ♦ Q 6 5 ♣ A 6 5 |
| West |
North |
East |
South |
| Pass |
Pass |
1 NT |
|
| (All pass) |
It's unusual to lead a four-card minor on this auction. So my first guess is that West is "4333" or "4432" with both minors. I play low from dummy, East plays the jack, and I win with the ace. I assume West began with queen-nine fourth of clubs.
I play a low heart--deuce--queen--ace. East shifts to the jack of diamonds. The ace-king of diamonds would give him an opening bid, so I duck. West plays the three. East continues with the ten of diamonds to West's king. West cashes the ace as I pitch a heart from dummy and East plays the diamond four. West now shifts to the deuce of spades, which rides around to my eight. It appears West began with
| ♠ J x x
♥ x x x
♦ A K x
♣ Q 9 x x |
If West were a human expert, I would suspect my picture of the deal is wrong and that East has the queen of clubs. If West actually holds the above hand, he would pretty much know what I have (except for the jack of hearts). Specifically, he would know that if he leads a club, I have no choice but to rise with the king, since I risk going down if I finesse. If he doesn't lead a club, I may be able to cash seven tricks, allowing me to take the finesse safely in the end game. So if an expert West leads a spade in this position, either he doesn't have the club queen or he's asleep.
The key to catching inferences like this is always to anticipate your opponent's next play. When West cashes the diamond ace, you should ask yourself what he's going to do next. When he does something else, an alarm should go off, and you should pause to reconsider your assumptions. If you aren't anticipating his next move, the alarm doesn't go off, and you miss the inference.
This is the Mozart effect. When you listen to Mozart, you think you know what's coming next. Then he surprises you. He extends the phrase a couple of measures, or he throws in a deceptive cadence, or he dovetails the cadence with the beginning of the next phrase. You weren't expecting it. But in retrospect it makes perfect sense, and you smile and emit a soft "Ah...." But if you just let the music wash over you and don't try to anticipate what's coming next, the effect is lost.
That being said, this inference is totally invalid playing against Jack. Jack always searches for double-dummy solutions. Making a play for the sole purpose of forcing you to commit yourself before you're ready is not part of Jack's repertoire.
But there's another clue that points to East's having the club queen that is valid playing against Jack. Why did he duck his partner's jack of diamonds, potentially blocking a running suit? Why not overtake with the king and cash the ace, playing me for queen doubleton? Obviously West thought it was possible his partner had an entry, namely the spade ace. If he were looking at the queen of clubs, he would know his partner couldn't have the spade ace.
I think this is a rather strong inference playing against Jack, perhaps less strong against a human. A human West might think his partner would have balanced with six diamonds (an inference I doubt Jack would draw) and might conclude his best chance is to hope I opened light. Or perhaps he just made a mistake. It's an easy oversight for a human, but it's not the kind of mistake Jack makes. So I'm inclined to think East has the queen of clubs.
I don't have to commit myself yet. I can cash my major-suit tricks and come down to a two-card end position. Everyone will have two clubs except East, who will have one club and a red-suit winner. If I change my mind, I can afford to finesse, since I'll still make my contract even if the finesse loses.
On the fourth round of spades, West pitches the four of clubs. He follows to three hearts. Everyone is down to two cards. When I lead a club toward dummy, West plays the eight. If I had any doubt, that card cinches it. He should have played the nine, the card he was known to hold. East would have played the nine at trick one with jack-nine doubleton, so rising with the king is a lock. Making three. Too bad we're not playing board-a-match.
| NORTH
♠ K Q 10 5 ♥ Q 6 3 ♦ 8 2 ♣ K 10 7 3 |
||
| WEST
♠ J 6 2 ♥ 10 5 2 ♦ A K 3 ♣ 9 8 4 2 |
EAST
♠ 7 4 ♥ A 9 7 4 ♦ J 10 9 7 4 ♣ Q J | |
| SOUTH
♠ A 9 8 3 ♥ K J 8 ♦ Q 6 5 ♣ A 6 5 |
At the other table, South opens one club in third seat, North responds one spade, and South raises to two spades. Personally, I would pass two spades with the North hand. For game to be virtually cold, he needs to find partner with something like ace fourth of spades, ace-queen fourth of clubs, and king doubleton of hearts. That's more than a perfect minimum, so the hand is not worth an invitation by Culbertson's rule. Jack disagrees, however. He bids three clubs. South seems to be on the same wavelength. Despite his maximum in high cards and a fourth trump, he refuses the invitation. He bids three spades, ending the auction. I suppose he was discouraged by his 4-3-3-3 pattern. But he would have a clear acceptance if you make any red card a club, and game would still be rather poor.
East leads the jack of diamonds, which holds the trick. The defense plays two more rounds of diamonds, and declarer ruffs with the queen of spades. That's encouraging. North might actually go down in this contract now.
He plays a heart--nine--jack--deuce, then the king of hearts--five--six--ace. East shifts to the queen of clubs. I'm not sure why declarer gets the clubs right, but he does. He rides the club queen around to his king, then plays a low club to ace, dropping the jack. He then cashes the ace and king of spades and, eventually, loses a trick to the spade jack. Making three for a push.
As a test, I switched the queen and four of clubs and replayed the board, again opening a weak notrump and buying it there. The play began as before. East took the heart ace and shifted to the jack of diamonds. I played low, and West indeed overtook with king and cashed the ace, playing his partner for six diamonds. So the inference I drew was valid--at least against Jack.
Me: +150
Jack: +140
Score on Board 81: 0 IMPs
Total: -115
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