Board 86

Board 86
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A J 9 7 6 ♥ Q 10 9 ♦ J 10 7 6 ♣ 3

RHO opens one club, and I overcall one spade. LHO doubles, and partner bids three spades (weak). RHO passes, I pass, and LHO bids four clubs, which his partner raises to five.

I don't generally care for leading the ace of a nine-card fit when you're missing the middle of the suit. Frequently leading the ace simply sets up winners on which declarer can pitch losers in other suits. I'm less worried about that, however, when the opponents have chosen to play five of a minor in preference to three notrump. In that case, there is less chance that they have slow winners in your suit.  So I lead the ace of spades.

	NORTH ♠ K 8 5 ♥ K 8 6 3 ♦ 9 8 ♣ K 8 6 2
WEST ♠ A J 9 7 6 ♥ Q 10 9 ♦ J 10 7 6 ♣ 3

West	North	East	South
			1 ♣
1 ♠	Double	3 ♠	Pass
Pass	4 ♣	Pass	5 ♣
(All pass)

So much for the opponents' not having slow winners in my suit. Dummy plays the five; partner, the four; and declarer, the three. Partner has played the four from queen-ten-four-deuce. The deuce should request the obvious shift, hearts, since that is the suit declarer will discard on dummy's king of spades. The ten should warn me away from switching to hearts. So the four should mean he's not sure: he can stand a heart shift, but he can't be entirely sure it's safe. If East were a partner I could trust, I should think he has the heart ace but not the ace-jack.

I doubt if Jack views this situation the same way. But, just for practice, let's assume he does. Even though a heart shift will give away a heart trick if declarer can see my hand, it still could be the right defense. If declarer has jack doubleton of hearts and no other losers, for example, my only chance is to switch to a heart and hope he misguesses. (He doesn't know that the four isn't partner's lowest, so from his point of view it is conceivable that partner is discouraging to show the heart queen, allowing me to underlead my ace.)

What if declarer has jack third of hearts? If I knew that for sure, I could guarantee beating this by defending passively. But even then a heart shift might work. Declarer might still misguess, in which case we will beat this an extra trick.

To get a handle on this problem, let's make some assumptions: (A) If I lead a heart, declarer will guess right half the time. (B) Declarer is equally likely to have jack doubleton of hearts as he is to have jack third. Under those assumptions, if I lead a heart, I will beat it half the time: whenever declarer misguesses. If I don't lead a heart, I still beat it half the time: whenever declarer has jack third. I see no particular reason to think (A) is wrong, so the right play depends on (B). If I think declarer is more likely to have jack doubleton than to have jack third, I should lead a heart. If not, I shouldn't.

Since declarer passed over partner's three spade bid then raised four clubs to five, there is good reason to believe he has six or seven clubs and that the club support improved his hand. With, say, a 1-3-4-5 pattern and enough values to raise four clubs to five, he might have doubled three spades. If I had to guess, I would place declarer with a 1-2-4-6 pattern.  I think that is likelier than 1-3-3-6 simply because, with the former pattern, he needs fewer high cards to make a five club bid look attractive. Accordingly, I think a heart shift is the percentage play.

All this is predicated on the additional assumption that partner's carding suggests he has the ace of hearts but not the jack. If a heart shift is right on that assumption, it must be right under the current conditions, where I suspect Jack is perfectly capable of having both the ace and the jack.

I shift to the ten of hearts, declarer rises with the king, and partner plays the ace. Partner shifts to a diamond. What? How can that be right? Declarer does have three hearts, so we beat this one trick instead of the two we were entitled to.

	NORTH ♠ K 8 5 ♥ K 8 6 3 ♦ 9 8 ♣ K 8 6 2
WEST ♠ A J 9 7 6 ♥ Q 10 9 ♦ J 10 7 6 ♣ 3		EAST ♠ Q 10 4 2 ♥ A J 7 ♦ 5 3 2 ♣ 9 7 4
	SOUTH ♠ 3 ♥ 5 4 2 ♦ A K Q 4 ♣ A Q J 10 5

I replayed the deal and shifted to the nine of hearts. This time partner got it right. He took the king with the ace and returned a heart. I don't know if Jack plays ten or nine shows zero or two higher in the middle of the hand or if he expects me to lead the nine because it's third best. I should think the ten is the right card without any special agreements. But, even with the misunderstanding, I don't see the point of a diamond shift. If declarer had miraculously worked out to play low on the ten of hearts, I could understand our having an accident. Partner might reasonably rise with the ace for fear declarer has queen doubleton and another loser elsewhere.

At the other table, the auction begins the same way, but East bids two spades instead of three over the negative double. South bids three hearts. Call me crazy, but ace-king-queen-four looks like a better suit to me than five-four-deuce. South might double two spades with this pattern, but with his cards concentrated in his suits, I like bidding three diamonds better. This would probably induce North to bid three notrump. This is why I play that the negative double promises diamonds or a willingness to correct diamonds to clubs. (See yesterday's post.)  I don't want partner to be afraid to bid diamonds with this hand.

North goes on to four hearts, and West leads his singleton club. Declarer wins in his hand, leads a heart, and ducks West's nine. East overtakes with the jack to give West a club ruff. As it happens, the ruff is with a natural trump trick. Declarer finishes down one for a push.

Too bad we had the carding accident. We could use the three imps. As it is, we're still down a hundred and one.  Pounds of fun to look forward to.

Me: +100
Jack: +100

Score on Board 86: 0 IMPs
Total: -101 IMPs