ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A 9 8 3 2  ♥ A Q J  ♦ A 7 5 2  ♣ 3

Two passes. I open one spade in third seat. LHO bids two spades (hearts and a minor)--pass--two notrump to me. I pass, anticipating doubling three clubs for take-out on the next round. 

The auction proceeds as planned. Three clubs--pass--pass. I double, and partner bids three spades. RHO bids four clubs. Had partner bid three diamonds, I might have something to think about. But when he has spade support, he's limited by his failure to raise on the first round. So I pass. LHO passes also, and partner continues on to four spades. 

It's conceivable partner has a hand that wasn't worth a raise initially but was improved by the auction and merits a four-spade bid after my double. But if that's the case, he should have bid it on the previous round. This auction should not exist. Not only does bidding this way announce that you expect four spades to go down, it also gives the opponents an extra round of bidding to investigate their own potential.

The opponents, thankfully, choose not to double. West leads the king of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 7 5 ♥ K 10 9 6 ♦ J 10 9 ♣ 10 6 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 3 2 ♥ A Q J ♦ A 7 5 2 ♣ 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 ♠
2 ♠	Pass	2 NT	Pass
3 ♣	Pass	Pass	Double
Pass	3 ♠	4 ♣	Pass
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

Partner was right the first time. Three spades is quite enough. He doesn't expect to make four spades, and his heart stack gives him some hope of defeating four clubs.

So what is West's shape? Had he led a low club, I would assume he didn't have a singleton diamond. But he would tend to lead a club with virtually any hand containing ace-king of clubs, so a singleton diamond is certainly possible. In fact, it's likely. The lack of a double suggests spades are splitting, so he is probably two-one in spades and diamonds. If so, I will lose two spades and one club. If I manage to lose only one diamond, I'm down one. That result will at least beat anyone who is going minus defending a club partscore.

Will I be able to lose only one diamond? How is the play going to go? West will continue clubs at trick two. I ruff and duck a spade, and they tap me again. I cash the spade ace and they split. East is left with a high trump, and I have only one trump left in each hand. I've lost two tricks. So, to hold it to down one, I can afford to lose only two more: the high trump and one diamond.

I now play four rounds of hearts, reaching the following position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ J ♥ -- ♦ J 10 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 9 ♥ -- ♦ A 7 5 ♣ --

East gains nothing by ruffing in as I cash hearts, since he will then have to give me a ruff-sluff or play a diamond for me.

What are East's last four cards in the above position? If he has the high spade, a club, and the king-queen of diamonds, I'm in trouble. I will play ace and a diamond, East will win, draw my trumps, then cash a club trick for down two. But if West has a singleton diamond honor, I can escape for down one. I finesse the diamond, losing to the stiff honor. Now West must give me a ruff-sluff, enabling me to pitch my last diamond.

None of this comes to pass however. At trick one, East plays the club deuce, and West shifts to the queen of diamonds. That's good to see. No more problems in the diamond suit. And now I'm even more confident trumps are splitting. West would certainly be tapping me if they weren't.

East plays the diamond three, and I take my ace. I can no longer duck a trump, since West will get a diamond ruff if I do. So I play ace and another. They split as expected. East wins with the king and returns the five of clubs. I ruff, run the hearts, then concede a diamond and a trump for down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 7 5 ♥ K 10 9 6 ♦ J 10 9 ♣ 10 6 4
WEST Robot ♠ 10 4 ♥ 8 7 5 4 2 ♦ Q ♣ A K J 9 7		EAST Robot ♠ K Q 6 ♥ 3 ♦ K 8 6 4 3 ♣ Q 8 5 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 3 2 ♥ A Q J ♦ A 7 5 2 ♣ 3

89%! I can't fault East too much for not doubling, though it was a very costly decision. His hand produced three tricks when it might have produced only one. West's spade ten and diamond queen proved critical, and he wasn't a favorite to hold either one. True, North's auction announced that he didn't expect four spades to make, but there is no reason he had to be right about that. 

Should West have doubled? He knows his partner wouldn't be bidding this way without some defense. His singleton diamond is a plus, and the fact that it's the queen is another plus. On the other hand, his high cards are in the suit his partner supported twice, where they aren't much use on defense. If his hearts and clubs were reversed, he would have a clear double.

Why was this result so good? For starters, 40 out of 62 Souths sold to three clubs. I didn't comment on my decision to compete at the time, because it looked routine. Apparently most of the field didn't think so. Yes, doubling three clubs entails some risk. But if partner fits one of your suits, you have quite a good hand. The fact that you can take nine tricks opposite a hand that wouldn't have responded to your opening bid attests to that. If partner is, say, 2-4-3-4, you may regret acting. But the opponents didn't try for game, so partner rates to have a little something. He'll pass with that pattern, and, with your three cashing tricks and fillers in declarer's second suit, you should have a fair chance to beat this.

The other reason this is such a good board is that the majority of the Souths who did reach four spades managed to go down two, usually by ducking a spade rather than playing ace and another, thereby losing a diamond ruff. Perhaps they were trying to retain control if trumps were four-one. If so, they missed the inference that West would have persisted with club taps if trumps weren't splitting.