Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ 3  ♥ A J 4 2  ♦ A 9 8 4 3  ♣ K 3 2

I open with one diamond in first seat. LHO overcalls with two clubs. Partner and RHO pass. One tries to avoid defending low-level contracts at matchpoints. But when you have shortness in an unbid suit, it's often right to make an exception. Either the opponents are in the wrong strain, or partner has the suit and the hand is a misfit. As Lowenthal liked to put it, "If you balance with this hand, two bad things can happen: (1) Partner has spades. (2) Partner doesn't have spades." 

I pass, and partner leads the diamond seven.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A Q 8 ♥ 9 8 7 6 ♦ Q J 6 5 2 ♣ 8
		EAST Phillip ♠ 3 ♥ A J 4 2 ♦ A 9 8 4 3 ♣ K 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
		1 ♦	2 ♣
(All pass)

Declarer plays a sneaky five from dummy, perhaps hoping we'll forget what spots were played and get our signals mixed up. The robots love to lead low from doubletons in the middle of a hand, but I haven't seen them do that on opening lead, so I'll assume declarer has king-ten doubleton. How will the play go? I'll win with the ace and return a low diamond (suit preference) for partner to ruff. Partner will play a heart to my ace, and I'll play a third diamond for a possible uppercut.

But what if declarer has a heart loser to pitch? If partner has the heart king, we need to cash however many hearts we can before playing the third diamond. If we try to cash too many hearts, however, we lose the second diamond ruff. If partner has king third of hearts, that's not a problem. Partner knows declarer can't have singleton heart, since that would give me five of them. So, after taking his diamond ruff, he will play king and another heart. But what if partner has king fourth of hearts? Now he doesn't know whether declarer has two hearts, in which case he must play king and another, or a singleton, in which case he must play low to my ace.

I know it's right for partner to return a low heart from king fourth. Is there any way I can get him to do that? I don't have a lot of options. I must return a low diamond; my only choice is whether to return the three or the four. Will my choice make a difference to partner? (I realize this question is rhetorical. My robot partner doesn't play suit preference period, so my card will make no difference. But I might as well try to solve the problem anyway, just for practice.)

I should point out that if I do return the four, it's a falsecard--not a nuanced signal. Partner should always assume I am signaling as loudly as possible. The four in principle denies the three, so partner should assume that declarer has it. But that actually solves his problem, doesn't it? If he thinks declarer has another diamond, there is no immediate uppercut. So there is no reason for him to lead the king from king fourth. The falsecard tricks partner into doing the right thing.

But hold on. It also tricks him into doing the wrong thing with king third. If declarer has a third diamond, there is no reason for him to lead the king from king third either. If I knew partner had four hearts, returning the diamond four would be a good play, and it is worth remembering for a different occasion. But I don't want to take control when I'm not sure about the layout. If I play an honest card, maybe partner can work out the position himself from whatever clues he has available.

I win with the ace, and declarer drops the king. I return the diamond three. Partner ruffs declarer's ten with the club six and returns the heart three to my ace. Declarer plays the queen. Is there any chance that's a foolish falsecard from queen doubleton and I can cash the jack now? No. I already decided partner would lead the king from king third. This is either a stiff queen or king-queen tight. 

I return diamond eight. Declarer ruffs with the seven, and partner overruffs with the ten. Partner tries to cash the heart king, and declarer ruffs with the four. We can't take any more tricks beyond my club king. Making two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A Q 8 ♥ 9 8 7 6 ♦ Q J 6 5 2 ♣ 8
WEST Robot ♠ 10 7 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 5 3 ♦ 7 ♣ J 10 6		EAST Phillip ♠ 3 ♥ A J 4 2 ♦ A 9 8 4 3 ♣ K 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K J 9 6 ♥ Q ♦ K 10 ♣ A Q 9 7 5 4

Minus 90 is worth 70%. A surprising number of defenders shifted to a spade trick two, allowing declarer to make two overtricks. That's so narcissistic! Going after your own spade ruffs instead of giving partner his diamond ruffs.

Partner did have king fourth of hearts and solved his problem. How might he have solved it? Let's look at the problem from his perspective.

It seems unlikely I have more than one natural trump trick. One trump trick, the diamond ace, and two ruffs makes four tricks. We need two hearts to cash in order to beat it. So returning a low heart gives up on defeating the contract; it's playing to stop an overtrick. At IMPs, therefore, you should play the king. But at matchpoints, it's not so clear. Since we are vulnerable, some pairs may be buying the contract our way and going minus 100. So the difference between minus 90 and minus 110 may be greater than the difference between minus 90 and plus 50. If it's a 50-50 guess, playing to stop the overtrick is probably the percentage play.

Is it a 50-50 guess? Or is there some reason to think either a singleton or a doubleton heart is more likely? I can't think of a reason. But there is anoher argument for leading low. If declarer has a singleton heart and you lead the king, you have dropped a trick. But if declarer has a doubleton and you lead low, you still have a chance to survive. If partner happens to have ace-queen third, he can cash the ace and queen before leading the third diamond. 

Should he? I believe he should. If you were sure returning a diamond was correct, you would lead a high spot (attitude), not a low one. Leading low shows the heart king and shows that you are not so sure about that immediate diamond return. So if partner trusts you, he should do the right thing. He should cash two hearts with ace-queen third (but not with ace-queen fourth, since he knows you would have led the king with only three hearts).

What if you have king fifth of hearts? I believe you should lead a high spot to prevent partner from trying to cash the queen. Leading low is right only if partner has specifically ace-queen tight. You simply have to give up on that layout.

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