Weekly Free Instant Tournament - Feb. 11, 2022 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A J 10 8  ♥ A J 9 7  ♦ 8 4  ♣ J 8 4

I don’t open balanced 11-point hands. But is this hand really worth only 11 points? It would be a clear opening bid if the jack-ten of spades were the queen. And if partner doesn't have the spade king, this is actually a better hand. (Ace-jack-ten of spades will be worth two tricks 75% of the time, whereas ace-queen will be worth two tricks only half the time.) That fact plus the good heart spots persuades me to evaluate this hand as 12 points and open with one club. 

As in the past, I'm studiously avoiding the term "upgrade." To me, "upgrade" implies you are, for one reason or another, elevating something to a higher category than the one to which it actually belongs. You might, for example, upgrade an airline ticket to first class as a reward. Or you might upgrade a 14-point hand to a strong notrump to avoid rebid problems. That's not what's happening here. I'm not upgrading this hand to 12 points. Nor am I treating it as 12 points. I'm judging 12 points to be an accurate evaluation.

Partner bids one diamond. I would like to rebid one notrump rather than one heart, since I don't want to hear a preference to two cubs. But the tooltip tells me that denies a four-card major. I wish I knew under what circumstances partner would respond one diamond with a four-card major. I know the robots sometimes bypass a longer diamond suit to bid a four-card major, because I've seen them do it. If I knew they did so whenever they had less than a game force, I would rebid one notrump even though it's non-systemic. But I don't know enough about the robots' tendencies to risk it. If we have an eight-card major-suit fit, it rates to play better than one notrump. So I bid one heart. Partner bids one notrump, which I pass. West leads the nine of spades.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A J 10 8 ♥ A J 9 7 ♦ 8 4 ♣ J 8 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ Q 8 6 ♦ A K J 9 6 ♣ 5 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♦
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 NT
(All pass)

The lead is presumably from a doubleton or singleton. I have only four tricks off the top. I’ll need to develop three more before they can take seven. Since both spade honors are offside, I'm not off to a good start. There is a variety of possible approaches, but I need to know more about the layout before I can evaluate them.

I play the spade jack. East wins with the queen, and I play the deuce. East shifts to the club three. West wins with the queen and cashes the king. East follows with the nine. West continues with the ace. Now I know enough to do some planning.

Since this is a best-hand tournament, West has at most 11 HCP. He has shown up with nine already, so he can’t have the heart king. He might hold the diamond queen, but I have to hope he doesn’t, since I don’t have much of a chance if the diamond finesse is losing. I will assume, out of necessity, that the diamond queen is onside.

Under that assumption, I have five tricks and will need two more. And if West began with five clubs and cashes them, I will need to avoid losing any more tricks to the defense. My prospects are actually pretty good as long as East has at least three diamonds. If he has exactly three, my diamonds are good. If he has four, perhaps I can gain two tricks via a triple squeeze. 

There are two ways a triple squeeze can yield two tricks: by means of an extended threat (if your opponent abandons a suit, it gives you two tricks instead of just one) or by having the squeeze repeat (he gives you a trick in one suit, then you cash that trick, squeezing him in the remaining two).

Let's see if that works here. Suppose I come down to this position after East cashes his fourth club.

(A)

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 10 8 ♥ A J 9 ♦ 8 4 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ Q 8 ♦ A K J 9 6 ♣ --

East must hold four diamonds, and king doubleton in both majors. If West cashes his fifth club, I pitch a spade from dummy. A diamond pitch by East gives me two tricks, since I have an extended threat in diamonds, so he must stiff a major-suit king instead, giving me one trick. When he does, I don't need the fifth diamond any more, so I pitch it. Whichever suit West shifts to, I win and cash two tricks in the major East stiffed the king of, squeezing him in diamonds and the other major. The squeeze trick is played from the North hand, and I have a diamond entry to the South hand. So, yes, the squeeze repeats, and I gain two tricks.

Note I need to keep all five diamonds for this to work. If I have only four diamonds in the above position, East can afford to pitch a diamond. This gives me one trick, but West simply plays a spade, killing the entry for the spade-heart squeeze, and the squeeze doesn't repeat. I can gain one trick but not two.

Sometimes the best defense in these situations is to avoid correcting the count by refusing to cash the last winner. What happens if West doesn't cash the fifth club? Since the opponents have taken only five tricks,  I can now afford to concede a trick to one of East's kings. That gives me my sixth trick. Then perhaps I can execute a simple squeeze to get one more.

Let's say in the above position West shifts to a heart instead of cashing his fifth club. I duck, establishing a heart as my sixth trick. Eat wins and returns a red suit. I win and cash my heart tricks, squeezing East in spades and diamonds. If West shifts to a spade in the above position, the result is similar. I duck and eventually squeeze East in hearts and diamonds. 

What if West shifts to a diamond? Since the squeeze card lies in the North hand, attacking the entry to the South hand might work. Let's play it out. Low diamond--low--queen--king. I pass the heart queen to East's king. This is the position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 10 8 ♥ A J ♦ 8 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ 8 ♦ A J 9 6 ♣ --

A second diamond play by East kills the spade-diamond squeeze. The squeeze card, the heart jack, is in the North hand and I have no entry to the diamond threat.  I can still make my contract by guessing whether to finesse the diamond nine or to play for West's ten to drop. But I no longer have a sure thing.

For the spade-diamond squeeze to operate I need to be able to cash the squeeze trick in my hand. That means I can't afford to pitch a heart. Suppose I come down to this position instead of (A) after the fourth club is cashed.

(B)

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 10 8 ♥ A J 9 ♦ 8 4 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ Q 8 6 ♦ A K J 9 ♣ --

I can still handle either major-suit shift. What if West shifts to a diamond? Then I win and play a heart to the jack. East wins and plays another diamond. I win and cash hearts, ending in my hand. The squeeze card is in the South hand, and North has an entry to the spade threat. So the squeeze now works. East is squeezed in spades and diamonds.

But we have already decided I need to keep all five diamonds for the triple squeeze to yield two tricks. So I can't cater to both scenarios. If I come down to (A), West shifts to a diamond. If I come down to (B), West cashes the fifth club.

If West has five clubs, it seems my best chance is to come down to (A) and hope West woodenly cashes the last club. If, instead, he finds the killing diamond switch, I will simply have to guess who has the diamond ten. But if clubs are four-four, West won't have a fifth club to cash. So I can come down to (B). I need to be flexible. I don't know which position I want to reach until I know how clubs split.

Where were we? West has just cashed the club ace. Dummy follows with the jack, and East follows  with the six. No matter which position I aim for, I can afford a spade pitch.  So I pitch the five of spades. West cashes the club ten. I pitch the heart seven from dummy, and West follows with the club seven.

So clubs are four-four. That means I must come down to position (B). I pitch the diamond six. West shifts to the four of hearts. I play the nine from dummy, East covers with the ten, and I win with the queen. That's a surprise. I wasn't expecting East to duck the heart king.

We have now reached this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 10 8 ♥ A J ♦ 8 4 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ 8 6 ♦ A K J 9 ♣ --

I doubt East would have ducked with king doubleton of hearts, so he is probably 4-3-2-4. I now have six tricks (assuming the diamond queen is onside). All I need to do is concede a trick to the spade king to set up my seventh trick.

Since I'm home if the diamond queen is onside, it's time to revisit that assumption. Especially since the queen is now two to one to be offside. Is there anything I can do if it is? Can I squeeze East in the majors, using the heart eight in my hand as a threat? 

I could try playing East for ten doubleton of diamonds. Say I lead the jack. West takes his queen and plays another heart. I hop with the ace and cash my diamonds, squeezing East in the majors. But all West has to do to break up the squeeze is shift to a spade--or a diamond for that matter, since the squeeze doesn't operate unless I cash the heart ace before running diamonds. If I knew the diamond queen was offside, it would be worth a try, hoping West misdefended. But East is just as likely to have a doubleton queen as a doubleton ten, so there is no reason to adopt that line.

I play a spade--seven--eight--king. East shifts to a diamond. Since I know East has the heart king, the elegant line is to hop and cash dummy's major-suit winners for a show-up squeeze. East will have the heart king and a diamond for his last two cards.

That diamond isn't the queen, so I'm down one.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A J 10 8 ♥ A J 9 7 ♦ 8 4 ♣ J 8 4
WEST Robot ♠ 9 7 ♥ 4 3 2 ♦ Q 10 7 3 ♣ A K Q 10		EAST Robot ♠ K Q 4 3 ♥ K 10 5 ♦ 5 2 ♣ 9 7 6 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ Q 8 6 ♦ A K J 9 6 ♣ 5 2

Minus 50 is worth only 7%. My score is down to 63% and I have dropped to second place.

Almost every table passed the board out. I stand by my decision to open the bidding. I reached a contract that went down only one after four finesses lost. That strikes me as a bit unlucky. Note that if you change my spades to ace-queen forth, one notrump is not as good a contract, but the whole room would be in it.

I misplayed the hand at the very end. Go back to the last diagram before the full deal and see if you can find my error. Recall what I know: East has the spade king and the heart king and at most two diamonds.

By conceding a spade, I make if East has the diamond queen and go down one if he doesn't. But I can achieve those same results another way. I cross to the heart ace, then cash the ace and king of diamonds. If the queen drops, I cash the jack, then toss East in with the heart king to lead into my spade tenace. Making one. If it doesn't drop, I still toss him in with the heart king to lead into my spade tenace. Although now I will lose the last trick for down one.

What do I gain by doing this? I gain if East has queen-ten doubleton of diamonds. Now I have four diamond tricks to cash, and East is squeezed in the majors. Not only do I make an overtrick, but I also get to watch East kick himself for ducking the heart king.