Weekly Free Instant Tournament - Feb. 11, 2022 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ A 10  ♥ A K Q 8 7 3  ♦ 8  ♣ K 10 9 4

Three passes to me. I bid one heart and LHO passes. Partner responds one spade, and RHO doubles.

Had RHO passed, I would bid two clubs, intending to bid three hearts next. I could bid three hearts immediately, but there are a number of ways two clubs can work out better. For one, if I get a chance to follow through with my plan, I will have painted a better picture of my hand, enabling partner to evaluate the fit more accurately. For another, it's possible clubs is the right strain. We might even make a slam in clubs that isn't available in hearts. The downside of bidding two clubs is I may be dropped there. But even that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes, I will be happy we didn't get any higher.

Once the auction gets competitive, however, our priorities change. I want to get as much information across as possible quickly. I no longer have the luxury of taking the auction slowly.

After the double, an immediate three-heart bid has two advantages: (1) It may make things harder for the opponents. If I bid two clubs, allowing the opponents a round of bidding to exchange information, then bid three hearts, they are better placed to make the right decision. (2) It may make things easier for us. Say, for example, I bid two clubs, LHO bids two diamonds, partner passes, and RHO bids four diamonds. Now what? Four hearts is an overbid. But I'm practically forced into it. Partner has no idea my hand is this good or that I have a self-sufficient heart suit. But if I bid three hearts now, I'm done. Partner knows I have six good hearts and seven and a half to eight playing tricks. I can comfortably sit back and leave further decisions to him.

I bid three hearts, LHO passes, and partner bids three notrump. I see no reason to disturb this contract, nor do my opponents. West leads the club five.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 10 ♥ A K Q 8 7 3 ♦ 8 ♣ K 10 9 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 9 8 4 3 ♥ -- ♦ K 10 9 6 ♣ A 8 6 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 ♠
Double	3 ♥	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

That's an aggressive three notrump call, given the heart void. Perhaps partner thought I wasn't making three hearts anyway. If we rate to go down in whatever contract we play, we might as well play a contract that has some upside.

The lead appears to be from QJ75 or QJ753, so I have three club tricks. Three hearts tricks and the spade ace brings me up to seven. I need two more.

Last week, someone questioned my tendency to start my analysis by asking how I'm going to make my contract. Since this is matchpoints, he pointed out, my concern even from the start should be maximizing my expected number of tricks--unless I have reason to believe I'm not in the field contract. That may be true, but my mind just doesn't work that way. I can't even think about how to maximize tricks until I have a starting point, and the best line to make my contract is a useful starting point. Once I've determined that line, I might then decide to give up on a slim chance in order to hold undertricks or to risk my contact for overtricks. So when I say "I need two more," understand I am simply setting my reference point. That goal is subject to revision.

If hearts are four-three, I can set up two heart tricks, but that's unlikely after West's double. My best shot is to find West with honor doubleton of spades. Actually king-queen third should work as well. If I win the club lead in my hand and play a spade, he can't split, or I will set up my spades. So he ducks and I win with dummy's ten. That's eight tricks. Now I cash my winners and toss him in with a club. He can cash two clubs, one spade, and the diamond ace, but must give me the diamond king.

I need to win this in my hand to start spades, so I play low from dummy. East discards the heart deuce. Whoa! East would not discard a heart from four or five. And on the auction it's unlikely he has three. Could he have six hearts? It's not clear he can afford a heart pitch from six. More likely, he has all seven. That means West is not apt to have a doubleton spade. My prospects of making this just went way down. But at least I'm not in hearts. Any North playing in hearts won't be happy. 

I win with the club six in my hand and play the spade three--six--ten--king. East shifts to the diamond queen. He might do this without the jack in an attempt to run the suit, so I can't be sure where the jack is. I cover with the king and West takes his ace. Dummy follows with the eight. The seven is the only high spot remaining, so if West returns a low diamond into my ten-nine-six, I will have two diamond tricks. There is a good chance he will do that. There is no future in clubs, and spades is the suit I'm going after.

No such luck. He shifts to the spade deuce. The fact that he didn't continue diamonds strongly suggests he holds the spade queen. If he didn't have that card, then I could conceivably be taking the rest of the tricks after a passive return. So he would likely try to cash whatever diamonds he could. 

East plays the spade five. If I'm right that hearts are seven-zero, then West is either 4-0-4-5 or 3-0-5-5. This is the current position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A K Q 8 7 3 ♦ -- ♣ K 10 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 9 8 ♥ -- ♦ 10 9 6 ♣ A 8 2

I haven't made much progress in finding those two extra tricks. Do I have any chances left? The opponents have taken two tricks, and they have the spade queen and diamond jack ready to cash. So if I give up a heart trick, I'm down. Or maybe not. If East has the diamond jack and is out of spades, West's spade queen is stranded. So I will assume that's the case. If so, is there anything I can do? 

Perhaps I'm wrong about the seven-zero split. Suppose West is 4-1-3-5 with a stiff jack, ten, or nine of hearts. If I cash the heart ace, then exit with the seven, East can't return a heart without giving me two heart tricks. So he must play a diamond. If he has the seven, I can finesse the six, and I have two diamond tricks.

I doubt West would have doubled one spade with 4-1-3-5. But I don't see how it hurts to cash the heart ace to make sure. I cash it, and East follows with the six. I pitch the spade eight, and West pitches the diamond deuce. Too bad. Hearts are seven-zero, as I suspected.

Can I execute the same endplay for down one? If I exit with the heart seven, East will win with the nine and lead the jack. I duck, presenting the defense with their fourth trick. But now East can't lead hearts. If he is out of spades, the best he can do is cash the diamond jack for down one. If he has another spade or if West has the diamond jack, they can cash two tricks for down two. But I was always going down two, so it doesn't hurt to try this.

I lead the seven of hearts, East wins with the nine, and I pitch the club deuce. West pitches the club seven. East now cashes the diamond jack. He must have another spade and is cashing out for down one. He could have beat me two by leading the heart jack first. So I'm happy to accept down one.

West follows with the diamond three, and I pitch the heart three from dummy. Surprisingly, East continues with the diamond seven, and I claim. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 10 ♥ A K Q 8 7 3 ♦ 8 ♣ K 10 9 4
WEST Robot ♠ Q 7 6 2 ♥ -- ♦ A 4 3 2 ♣ Q J 7 5 3		EAST Robot ♠ K 5 ♥ J 10 9 6 5 4 2 ♦ Q J 7 5 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 9 8 4 3 ♥ -- ♦ K 10 9 6 ♣ A 8 6 2

All he had to do to beat me was to lead the heart jack before cashing the diamond. Why didn't he? Can it ever cost? It can cost if his partner has the diamond ten and I have enough tricks ready to cash to make my contract. But that's impossible. If that were the case, I wouldn't be ducking a heart. The robots' inability to draw inferences from their opponent's line of play is their biggest weakness, and here it proved fatal.

Plus 600 is a top. Making this was almost overkill. Even down one would have been worth 79%. The board was won when I bid three hearts over West's double. Most of the field bid slowly to three hearts and were doubled, going down anywhere from one to five tricks. East might have doubled three hearts even on my auction, but it's dangerous to double when the auction is still live, especially when you haven't had a chance to show your fit. Whether he should have doubled or not, it is clear he had a tougher decision than his counterparts at the other tables. So the three-heart bid did its job.

My score is now 72%, and I am back in first place.