Weekly Free Instant Tournament - Feb. 11, 2022 - Board 6

Board 6
 Opponents vulnerable

♠ K Q  ♥ 7 6 5  ♦ A K Q 9 8  ♣ A 10 9

RHO passes. I open with one diamond, intending to rebid two notrump. LHO spoils my plan by overcalling with one spade, which is passed around to me. I could balance with one notrump, showing 18-19 HCP, or I could double for take-out. With shortness in your opponent's suit, a take-out double is usually preferable to bidding notrump, so I double.

LHO bids two hearts. Partner passes, and RHO raises to three hearts. I have nothing further to say. I pass, and the opponents buy it for three hearts. Partner leads the heart jack.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 2 ♥ K 10 4 3 ♦ J 4 ♣ Q 7 6 5 2
		EAST Phillip ♠ K Q ♥ 7 6 5 ♦ A K Q 9 8 ♣ A 10 9

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
	Pass	1 ♦	1 ♠
Pass	Pass	Double	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♥	(All pass)

Since South didn't use Michaels, he is probably five-four in his suits. Even if he's of the school that avoids Michaels with intermediate-range two-suiters, he would probably have accepted the game invitation with any five-five that he thought was too good for Michaels.

Declarer plays the heart three from dummy, I play the five, and declarer wins with the queen. 

As I've mentioned before, it's a good idea to try to predict how the play will go, so it will raise a red flag if declarer does something unexpected. My expectation here is that declarer will duck a spade to begin establishing his suit. But he doesn't. He plays the jack of clubs. Partner plays the king, declarer plays the five from dummy, and I follow with the nine. 

It appears declarer has a stiff club and is preparing for a crossruff. But if partner plays another trump and I play a third when declarer ducks a spade, he's not going to get a lot of crossruffing done. So maybe a crossruff isn't his objective. Could he be trying to establish clubs? If so—if clubs offer a better prospect for tricks than spades, his spades can't be very good. Partner would need jack-ten fourth or jack-nine fourth of spades to induce declarer to go after clubs instead of spades for tricks.

Partner shifts to the deuce of hearts. Declarer wins in his hand with the eight and leads the club four—three—queen—ace. So declarer is indeed trying to establish clubs. I cash the diamond king—three—seven—four, then the diamond ace—ten—five—jack. Here is the current position. Declarer presumably has ace fifth of spades and ace doubleton of trumps left.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 2 ♥ K 10 ♦ — ♣ 7 6 2
		EAST Phillip ♠ K Q ♥ 7 ♦ Q 9 8 ♣ 10

If I play a trump, declarer will win in dummy and ruff a club to his hand. Then dummy is good except for a spade. So he's down one.

Is there any way I can do better?  What happens if I play a third round of diamonds? Let's switch to declarer's point of view:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 2 ♥ K 10 ♦ — ♣ 7 6 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A x x x x ♥ A 9 ♦ — ♣ —

If the defense continues diamonds, it's tempting to ruff in your hand and pitch the spade loser from dummy. In fact, allowing you to pitch your spade loser looks like a defensive error. But if you do that, you're down two. You can cash the spade ace and crossruff, but that yields only five tricks. You lose the last two.

You do better by refusing the "gift." Take the ruff in dummy, ruff a club with trump ace, establishing the suit, then play a trump to dummy and cash your two club tricks. You lose a spade at the end for down one.

But is it clear to do that? You don't know clubs are three-three after all. If you ruff the diamond in dummy, ruff a club, and they don't split, you are in trouble. If you concede a spade, the defense plays another trump and you wind up with the spade ace and three trump tricks for down three. Taking the sure line for down two might be the right decision.

Can it hurt to give declarer this option? Say I play a diamond. Declarer ruffs in his hand, pitching a spade from dummy, plays ace and ruffs a spade, then leads a trump to his hand and claims. Now I've just let him make a contract we were supposed to beat. But that means he has ace-jack-ten fifth of spades, and I decided at trick two that his spades can't be that good. So offering him the option to play safe for down two can't cost.

I play the diamond queen. He doesn't fall for it. He pitches a spade from his hand, ruffs in dummy, then ruffs a club with the ace. Down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 2 ♥ K 10 4 3 ♦ J 4 ♣ Q 7 6 5 2
WEST Robot ♠ J 9 6 4 ♥ J 2 ♦ 7 6 5 2 ♣ K 8 3		EAST Phillip ♠ K Q ♥ 7 6 5 ♦ A K Q 9 8 ♣ A 10 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 7 5 3 ♥ A Q 9 8 ♦ 10 3 ♣ J 4

Plus 100 is worth only 29%. At over half the tables, the final contract was three spades by South. How do they get there? To begin with, East balances with two diamonds rather than double. That should show six diamonds, and there is no reason to distort your hand when you have two better options available. This time, however, the call works for a strange reason. It seems to convince North that his hearts are spades and vice versa. 

First, after South bids two hearts, North takes a false preference to two spades. Then, when West competes to three diamonds, he bids three spades. Why the two-diamond bid causes North to lose his mind is a mystery. This is the second board in a row where one's choice of actions had an effect on the result that was apparently related more to the vagaries of the robots' programming than to the merits of the choice itself. The first time I benefited; this time I lost.

While balancing with two diamonds is a mistake, I'm inclined to think my double was a mistake as well. I should have bid one notrump. I avoided one notrump because of my doubleton spade. But when RHO doesn't raise spades, there is a fair chance partner has some spade length, so my shortness is less of a liability than it would be in a different auction. And doubling could give me headache on the next round. What do I do, for example, if partner bids two clubs? We could still have a game, but it's dangerous to bid again when partner could have nothing. Balancing with one notrump gets my values across and allows me to leave further bidding to partner. Fortunately, this time my choice probably made no difference--unless, like two diamonds, one notrump would have had some voodoo-like effect on the opponents' auction.

Despite this result, I am still in first place, with 71%.