Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K 10 7 6 2  ♥ J  ♦ Q  ♣ K 9 8 7 3

RHO opens with one heart. I could bid two hearts, a Michaels cue-bid, showing spades and a minor, but that could make it hard to get the sixth spade into the auction. So I bid one spade instead. LHO raises to two hearts, passed around to me. When I chose not to use Michaels, I judged that the sixth spade was more important than the club suit, so I might as well follow through. I bid two spades. Everyone passes, and West leads the heart king.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 9 ♥ Q 8 5 3 ♦ K 9 7 4 ♣ Q 6 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 7 6 2 ♥ J ♦ Q ♣ K 9 8 7 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		1 ♥	1 ♠
2 ♥	Pass	Pass	2 ♠
(All pass)

A human West, anticipating a critical shift at trick two, might lead the heart king from king third to retain the lead. But I'll assume this West has ace-king third. That leaves twelve HCP unaccounted for, and East should have most of them.

East plays the heart seven at trick one, and West shifts to the diamond eight. I play low from dummy, East plays the deuce, and I win with the queen. I suppose East wasn't expecting me to have two singletons. That's one reason not to show my two-suiter.

East presumably has ace-jack-ten fourth or fifth of diamonds. Since he has at least nine red cards, there is a good chance he has a doubleton spade queen. But if I cash the ace and king of spades trying to drop it and he shows out, I will have two spade losers. 

I could lead a low spade from my hand. If East does have a small singleton spade, I avoid two spade losers that way. And if he has queen doubleton, failing to drop it might not cost. If he is 2-5-4-2, I now have a dummy entry to lead through his club ace. My safety play in spades loses a spade trick, but I get it back in the club suit.

What if he is 2-5-5-1? If I start clubs from my hand, my correct play is to duck in dummy. If clubs are three-two, ducking doesn't cost, since I have to lose two club tricks anyway. So I might as well guard against a stiff ace. That means I don't gain anything starting clubs from dummy, so the safety play costs a trick in this case.

The safety play gains only if East has a small singleton spade. That leaves him with only ten HCP. He probably wouldn't open with only ten HCP unless he was five-five. So a low spade gains only when he has specifically,

♠ x  ♥ x x x x x  ♦ A J 10 x x  ♣ A J.

With bad hearts and ace-jack tight of clubs, I probably wouldn't open that hand myself, but a robot might, since robots aren't big on exercising judgment. Even if he has that hand, however, cashing the top spades still doesn't cost if the singleton spade is the eight. So leading a low spade caters to a very small set of hands--possibly even none, depending on East's opening bid tendencies.

I cash the spade ace. West plays the eight. I play the nine from dummy, and East follows with the four. Now king of spades--five--jack--three. East seems to have begun with queen third of spades. That means his club ace is singleton. This, I assume, is the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ Q 8 5 ♦ K 9 7 ♣ Q 6 2
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ A x ♦ x x x ♣ J 10 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ Q ♥ x x x x ♦ A J 10 ♣ A
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 10 7 6 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ K 9 8 7 3

I'm going to lead a club and duck in dummy. But I might as well lead the club nine to tempt West to do something foolish. He does. He covers with the ten. Great! Now, when I duck, East will take his stiff ace. I can then play a club to dummy's six, picking up the suit for one loser. Even if I've somehow misread the position and West has jack-ten third, ducking won't cost. So I play low from dummy.

East surprises me by winning with the jack. He shifts to the four of hearts. I ruff and drive the club ace. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 9 ♥ Q 8 5 3 ♦ K 9 7 4 ♣ Q 6 2
WEST Robot ♠ 8 5 ♥ A K 6 ♦ 10 8 6 5 3 ♣ 10 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ Q 4 3 ♥ 10 9 7 4 2 ♦ A J 2 ♣ A J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 7 6 2 ♥ J ♦ Q ♣ K 9 8 7 3

It turns out a low spade at trick three was the right idea, since it allows me to make four. I didn't consider this layout, because I was assuming East had at least four diamonds. It didn't occur to me that West might lead the eight from ten-eight fifth and that East might duck with ace-jack-deuce. Perhaps it should have.

I could also have made four by playing the club queen when West covered my nine with the ten. But that's an impossible play to find. Covering with ten third makes no sense. What I was envisioning was more likely.

Plus 140 is worth 73%, since a fair number of players made only two or scored 110 in clubs. Making four would have been worth 96%.