Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K Q 7 5 3  ♥ K J  ♦ A K 10  ♣ A K 9

Two clubs followed by 2NT shows 22-24 HCP in the robots' methods. With 23 HCP, I'm in the middle of that range.

I open with two clubs, partner bids two diamonds, and I bid two notrump. Partner bids three clubs, Stayman. I bid three spades, and partner raises to four. West leads the spade nine.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 10 4 2 ♥ 10 7 6 5 ♦ Q J ♣ 6 5 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 5 3 ♥ K J ♦ A K 10 ♣ A K 9

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			2 ♣
Pass	2 ♦	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 ♠
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

I can draw trumps, pitch a club from dummy on a diamond, and ruff a club. Then I need to guess hearts. If I guess right, I make five. Sometimes I say I would rather have king-deuce in this position than king-jack. With king-deuce, I have a 50% of taking a trick. With king-jack, I have only a 25% chance. Perhaps we can put that theory to the test on this deal.

I play a low spade from dummy. East plays the eight and I win with the queen. I play the spade three, and West pitches the four of diamonds. I play the spade jack, and East ducks with the six.

Ducking this trick is strange. One would expect East to win and try to find a useful shift, perhaps attempting to score a ruff with his remaining trump. Is there any suit East might try to ruff? A doubleton where he might hope to find his partner with ace-queen? If so, the fact that he didn't try for a ruff means he thinks it unlikely his partner has the ace-queen, which, in turn, suggests he has the heart ace.

Given West's diamond discard, if East does have a doubleton, it's probably in diamonds, where it does him no good. A doubleton heart or club is unlikely, since that would give West five cards in the suit, and he might have pitched one. That's unfortunate. East's failure to try for a ruff offers no clue.

Perhaps East could have tried to give his partner a ruff. At trick one, he didn't know his partner had a stiff spade. If was looking at ace fourth of hearts, he might have won the first trick and underled the heart ace, playing his partner for king doubleton.

A human might shift to a heart from queen fourth as well, playing his partner for ace doubleton and for declarer to misguess. But a robot wouldn't even bother to try that. He assumes you play double dummy, so he looks for defenses that work by force. Since a heart shift from ace fourth does work by force if West has king doubleton and another trump, there is a strong inference East does not have ace fourth of hearts. If we eliminate hands with ace fourth of hearts from consideration, East is better than 50% to hold the heart queen rather than the ace.

I might as well lead a heart now. I'm not going to discover anything more if I continue playing, but East might. And the less he knows about my hand the better. If he does have the heart ace, he might think of some reason to hop if I play a heart now.

I play the heart five from dummy. East plays the four. I play the jack and West wins with the queen. He shifts to the diamond six. I win with dummy's queen, and East plays the seven. I play the six of hearts from dummy, and East hops with the ace. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 10 4 2 ♥ 10 7 6 5 ♦ Q J ♣ 6 5 2
WEST Robot ♠ 9 ♥ Q 9 2 ♦ 9 8 6 4 3 2 ♣ Q 10 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 8 6 ♥ A 8 4 3 ♦ 7 5 ♣ J 8 7 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 5 3 ♥ K J ♦ A K 10 ♣ A K 9

So East did have ace fourth of hearts but didn't try to give his partner a ruff. I find that surprising. It's hard to see how ducking two rounds of trumps offers better prospects.

This result is a mere 31%. Other declarers were not better guessers than I was. Some of them were just better bidders. After two clubs--two diamonds, they rebid two spades, effectively forcing to game. Now East, fearful declarer has a stiff king of hearts, hops up with the ace when they lead a heart from dummy.

Apparently I'm supposed to rebid two spades with king-jack of hearts and two notrump with a stiff king. Maybe some day I'll be that good.