Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 9 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

I started this week's tournament with a zero, going down in a marginal slam that no one else reached. But I've managed to pull my score up to 74% going into the final board:

♠ A K J 7  ♥ Q 9 7 5  ♦ A 3  ♣ A 6 3

Three passes to me. With 18 HCP and a balanced hand, I have a routine two-notrump rebid. I start with one club. Partner responds with one heart. My heart queen has gone up in value, so I can re-evaluate this hand as a game force. I bid four hearts and partner passes. RHO leads the diamond five.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K J 7 ♥ Q 9 7 5 ♦ A 3 ♣ A 6 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 5 ♥ J 10 8 2 ♦ K J 10 ♣ K Q 10 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

The diamond five isn't very informative. It could be from shortness or length. Since the four and deuce are missing, it could even be from a six-card suit. 

While the lead isn't informative, it at least picks up the diamond queen for me. I have ten tricks after knocking out the top hearts. If trumps are three-two, I can score an eleventh trick via a ruff. A ruff may be problematic if trumps are four-one.

Sometimes one can cater to a bad trump break by taking a ruff early. Does that work here? Let's say I play ace, king, and ruff a spade now. Already there are problems with this line. Someone may ruff the second spade, or someone may pitch a club on the third spade, setting up an eventual club ruff.

And those aren't my only problems. After I ruff a spade, say I lead a heart and it holds. Now what? I've exposed a spade loser. So if I play another trump, the defense may be able to draw dummy's trumps and cash a spade. To prevent that, I have to ruff my last spade, giving the opponents another chance to pitch a club and set up a club ruff.

It might be worth taking the risk of an early spade ruff if not for the fact that I have other chances for an eleventh trick. The clubs may come home, I may have a black-suit squeeze, or I may take a spade finesse. Given I have those other chances in reserve, I'll forgo the early ruff.

I play a low diamond from dummy. East plays the queen, and I win with the king. I want to keep all high trumps in dummy in case I do decide to ruff a spade and draw trumps. So I lead the heart jack--three--five--king. East shifts to the club deuce. I could insert the ten, which would be my eleventh trick if it held. But a shift from the jack into dummy's ace third is unattractive. It's more likely West has jack doubleton and inserting the ten would give up my chance to drop it. I can always finesse East for the jack later if I change my mind. So I go up with the king, retaining a club entry to each hand.

I play the heart deuce and West discards the three of spades. I play the seven, and East underplays with the six. So the four-one trump break I was worried about transpired. Should I ruff a spade now? Say I play ace and king of spades (hoping they both cash) and ruff a spade. If East shows out on the third spade, I'm home. I just lead the ten of hearts to the queen. Whether East wins or ducks, nothing bad can happen.

What if East follows to the third spade? Then I'm down to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ J ♥ Q 9 ♦ A ♣ A 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 ♦ J 10 ♣ Q 10 4

If the spade jack isn't high, I have to ruff it. Can I do that safely? Diamond to the ace. Club ace (hoping it cashes), to guard against East's pitching his last club as I ruff the spade. Now I take my ruff. East is down to two trumps and one minor-suit card. I have to guess which minor suit and cash the right winner. Then my only loser is the trump ace.

There are too many ways that line can fail. It seems better just to drive the trump ace now and hope I can score an eleventh trick in the black suits. We're back to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K J 7 ♥ Q 9 ♦ A ♣ A 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 5 ♥ 10 8 ♦ J 10 ♣ Q 10 4

I lead the heart nine. East takes the ace as West discards the seven of diamonds. I haven't seen the four or deuce, so I'm still not sure how diamonds are splitting.

East plays his last trump, and West discards the club nine. Unless West began with five clubs, my clubs are now good. If he did, I have to hope the spade queen drops or West is squeezed.

I win with the heart queen and cash the club ace. East follows, so I claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K J 7 ♥ Q 9 7 5 ♦ A 3 ♣ A 6 3
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 9 4 3 ♥ 3 ♦ 9 8 7 5 ♣ J 9 5		EAST Robot ♠ 8 2 ♥ A K 6 4 ♦ Q 6 4 2 ♣ 8 7 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 5 ♥ J 10 8 2 ♦ K J 10 ♣ K Q 10 4

Plus 450 is worth 61%. The only person to do better opened with one notrump then refused to show a four-card major over Stayman. He reached three notrump, making five.

I don't know why people think you have to do bizarre things to win. I averaged 72% doing nothing more than trying to take the percentage action at every turn. And if I had actually succeeded in taking the percentage action at every turn, I would have done better. Surely that's a more promising approach--and more rewarding even if you don't end up winning.