Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 16 (Beethoven's Birthday) - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ A K 10 8 7 2  ♥ K 7  ♦ A J  ♣ K J 5

Partner opens with two hearts. The robots tend to have good suits for their weak two-bids, so it's likely partner has ace-queen sixth. We could have a slam if we have a spade fit, so I'll start with two spades to find out. If partner raises, I'll bid Blackwood. If he bids three hearts, I'll settle for four hearts or three notrump. I'm not sure which, but there's no reason to worry about that yet.

Over two spades, partner bids two notrump. Since we don't have a spade fit, I'll give up on slam. As far as which game to play, I was contemplating three notrump even before partner suggested it. So I'll accept his suggestion.

I bid three notrump. Everyone passes and RHO leads the three of diamonds.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 8 7 2 ♥ K 7 ♦ A J ♣ K J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ A Q J 9 5 3 ♦ K 10 8 ♣ 10 8 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			2 ♥
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

That looks more like a one-heart opening to me. But it wasn't my decision to make.

Assuming hearts come home, I have eleven tricks after this lead. If I can take a club trick, I have twelve. Some pairs will be in four hearts, and it's not clear how many tricks they will take. If they can set up spades, they might make seven. But I can't beat that result, so it's not a concern. There may, however, be some plus 480s, which I can beat if I guess the clubs.

I play the diamond jack from dummy. East covers with the queen and I win with the king. The diamond deuce is still out.

I can't run hearts before guessing clubs, since I would have to cash my diamonds as well, setting up diamonds tricks for them. And it's not clear that would give me any useful information anyway. I might as well play clubs now. Perhaps I can exploit the robots' tendency to cover an honor with an honor anytime it might gain. If I lead the club ten, will West cover with the queen? If he knew I had the diamond ten, he might not, since he would know a second club trick is of no use to me. But with the information he has, not covering may cost a trick. So I'm fairly sure he will cover.

I lead the club ten. West plays the six, so I go up with the king. No luck. East takes the ace. I assume it didn't matter. East presumably has the queen as well.

East shifts to the six of diamonds. West plays the five and I win in dummy. I still haven't seen the deuce.

Is there any chance to make six? I might have a black-suit squeeze against East. Unfortunately both the club jack and spade ten are in front of him. The only possible threat behind him is the club eight, so I would need to find East with the only spade guard and with queen-nine of clubs. If I hadn't led the ten, it would work as a threat, so I wouldn't need East to hold the nine. Too late now.

I cash the heart king, and East discards the spade four. Whoa! I'm down to four heart tricks. I have two spades and three diamonds, so I'm still making this. Is it possible to make an overtrick?

I have four hearts and three diamonds to cash and I've lost a club trick. So I'll be down to five cards in the end position. Dummy will have three spades and a doubleton club. Here's what the position will look like:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ 9 5 ♦ -- ♣ 8 4

If East has the only spade guard, he is in trouble. If he holds three spades and two clubs, I can endplay him in spades. If he stiffs the queen of clubs, I can duck it out. He may have a diamond to cash, but then I'll take the last three tricks. If he has a small diamond to lead to his partner, the endplay won't work. So I need to hope that's not the case. 

I need to guess his shape so I know if he stiffs the club queen. The robots give count on their first discard, so the spade four is either lowest from three or five or third best from four. It's hard to believe he doesn't have a more attractive discard than a spade from a four-card suit, so it's probably three or five. Given his heart void, it's more likely five. I still don't know how diamonds split. West could have three or four--conceivably even five, since the deuce is still missing.

On the next heart, East discards the diamond deuce. So I now know West began with three or four diamonds. On the next two hearts, East discards the club three, then the deuce. The robots don't always give accurate count after the first play in a suit, so I can't read too much into the echo. But I doubt he would stiff the club queen without knowing I have a third diamond winner. So my best guess is East is 5-0-3-5, which is good news, since that means he won't have a diamond exit in the end position. If my construction is correct, East has four spades and queen doubleton of clubs remaining.

I cash the diamond ten. West plays the nine; East, the seven. So my construction is wrong. East started with at least four diamonds. I can still endplay him if he's 4-0-4-5. But is that possible? I said earlier I didn't think he would pitch a spade from four, and I see no reason to change my mind. Most likely he's 3-0-5-5, probably with three small spades, since I doubt he would have pitched from honor third.

If that's the layout, I can't endplay East. Can I endplay West? West should be down to

♠ Q J 3  ♥10  ♦ --  ♣ x

When I lead a spade, he will split, and I will take the ace. Now I can lead a low club from dummy. If West's club spot is the nine, I have him. If East hops with the queen, he gives me the club jack. If he ducks, West wins with the nine. He can cash the ten of hearts but must then lead a spade into dummy's king ten.

That seems like my best chance at this point. I play a spade. Will I have the courage of my convictions and play the ten if West plays low? West doesn't put me to the test. He inserts the jack. I take the ace and lead a low club. Unfortunately, it is East who wins with the nine. He has a club and a diamond to cash. I take the spade king at the end. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 8 7 2 ♥ K 7 ♦ A J ♣ K J 5
WEST Robot ♠ Q J 3 ♥ 10 8 6 4 2 ♦ 9 5 3 ♣ 7 6		EAST Robot ♠ 9 6 4 ♥ -- ♦ Q 7 6 4 2 ♣ A Q 9 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ A Q J 9 5 3 ♦ K 10 8 ♣ 10 8 4

Almost the entire field is in four hearts, which I find surprising. I expected some pairs to play four hearts, but this seemed like a pretty routine auction. (At least from my side of the table. And we are all playing with the same partner.) 

Four hearts made four, so plus 400 is worth 11%. Had I led a small club at trick two instead of the ten, I would have scored 430 for 100%. Little did I know I had won the whole board in the auction.

Did I make a mistake? I don't think so. Against these opponents, the club ten gives me a 75% chance to take a club trick instead of a 50% chance. The only time it costs is when both club honors are offside and hearts are five-zero offside. It's wrong to forgo the vig in leading the club ten for fear of a layout as unlikely as this one.