Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 9 6  ♥ K J 9 8 7 6  ♦ A J  ♣ J 5

Two passes to me. I open with one heart, LHO passes, and partner bids one spade.

If RHO passes, my correct rebid is two spades. The spade support is more important than the sixth heart. Why tell partner about one card in my hand when I can tell him about three?

It's true that if partner is four-two in the majors with a weak hand, we will play the wrong partscore. But if partner is five-one in the majors with a weak hand, it's the two heart rebid that will land us in the wrong partscore. If my bid is going to end the auction, it's a tossup which rebid works better. So I should worry about the times my bid doesn't end the auction. In those cases, it will probably work out better if I show my spade support. 

Unfortunately, the robots play that two spades promises four trumps. If I bid two spades, partner will assume spades are agreed and won't look for another strain. So a two-heart rebid is foisted upon me.

Thankfully, RHO comes to the rescue with a two-diamond overcall. Now I can show my three spades with a support double. It's a weird system where you pray for your opponents to interfere so you can bid your hand intelligently. Incidentally, the support double solves both of the problem scenarios above. With five spades and a bad hand, partner bids two spades. With four-two in the majors and a bad hand, he bids two hearts. The double leaves room to play either major at the two level.

I double. Partner bids two spades, and everyone passes. RHO leads the four of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 9 6 ♥ K J 9 8 7 6 ♦ A J ♣ J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 8 7 4 ♥ 5 ♦ Q 7 5 3 ♣ Q 9 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 ♠
2 ♦	Double	Pass	2 ♠
(All pass)

West probably has a singleton heart to be leading dummy's suit. And he probably has six diamonds to be overcalling at the two level with such a bad suit. Since this is a best-hand tournament, East is limited to 13 HCP, which means West has at least eight. And he shouldn't have more than ten--at least if I'm right he has six diamonds--since he didn't open with one diamond.

Is there anything to conclude from the fact that he chose not to open with two diamonds? Some opponents might be dissuaded by a four-card spade suit. But the robots like to have good suits for weak two-bids, so the fact that the diamond suit has only one high honor is probably enough of a deterrent for a robot.

I'm off two clubs, a heart, and a spade off the top. Even if I can avoid losing to the jack of spades and can avoid a third club loser, I still must hold my diamond losses to one trick, which means I need to ruff one diamond in dummy. That won't be easy.

I play a low heart from dummy. East wins with the ten and shifts to his presumed singleton diamond, the eight. I play low, and West continues to show his Christmas spirit by playing the king. I win with dummy's ace.

Where do I stand now? I'm losing a heart, a spade, two clubs, and a diamond ruff as soon as the opponents get in. I have to take the rest, so I must assume I can avoid a third club loser. I must also assume the spade jack is on my right. If West has it, East can lead a heart for a trump promotion at some point. My problem, then, boils down to ruffing my fourth diamond in dummy without getting overruffed.

Suppose I lead the spade king from dummy. Say West wins and gives his partner a diamond ruff. East might now be able to play ace of clubs and a club to the king to score a diamond overruff with the spade jack. Since I must assume East has the spade jack anyway, I might as well take a first-round finesse against it. Then dummy's spade king will be available for a ruff if necessary.

I lead the spade six from dummy--five--four--ace. West leads the four of diamonds, and East ruffs with the deuce.

West exits with the jack of spades. I play the queen from my hand, East follows, and I play low from dummy. We are down to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K ♥ K J 9 8 7 ♦ -- ♣ J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ -- ♦ Q 7 ♣ Q 9 7

I can now ruff a diamond in dummy and lead a club to my nine. But trumps are drawn, so there is no hurry to do that. I might as well lead a club toward dummy to give West a chance to hop with the king.

I lead the seven of clubs--four--jack--king. King? West can't have the ace of clubs.

♠ A x  ♥ x  ♦ K 10 9 x x x  ♣ A x x x

is a clear an opening bid. So East must have both club honors and has made a careless play, winning with the king instead of the ace.

East now leads the club deuce. This makes no sense. If East were looking at my hand, he would know he could afford to underlead the club ace. He can't lose it, because I need dummy's trump to ruff my diamond loser. But he's not looking at my hand. For all he knows I have queen ten of diamonds and he's conceding the rest of the tricks. The robots don't think about giving declarer a guess. They worry about what works under the assumption that declarer is double dummy. Under that assumption, underleading the club ace can cost but can never gain. So, as hard as it is to believe, West must have the club ace.

I play the nine. West wins with the ten and exits with the club ace. I ruff in dummy and concede one trick. Down one.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 9 6 ♥ K J 9 8 7 6 ♦ A J ♣ J 5
WEST Robot ♠ A 3 ♥ 4 3 ♦ K 10 9 6 4 2 ♣ A 10 3		EAST Robot ♠ J 5 2 ♥ A Q 10 2 ♦ 8 ♣ K 8 6 4 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 8 7 4 ♥ 5 ♦ Q 7 5 3 ♣ Q 9 7

West had a doubleton heart, not a singleton. That makes his failure to open a tad more understandable, but only a tad.

After the gift of the diamond king, can I make this if I play West for a doubleton heart? At the point I floated the six of spades, suppose I lead the king of hearts to ruff out East's ace? Then I lead a spade to dummy's king, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 9 6 ♥ J 9 8 7  ♦ J ♣ J 5
WEST Robot ♠ A ♥ -- ♦ 10 9 6 4 2 ♣ A 10 3		EAST Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ Q 2 ♦ -- ♣ K 8 6 4 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 8 ♥ -- ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ Q 9 7

I lead the jack of hearts. East plays low, letting his partner ruff with the ace. The defense can then score two clubs and two diamond ruffs. No, I can't make it by setting up a heart trick. I can make it by leading the nine of clubs out of my hand. But that's not a sensible line.

Not that I need to make it. Down one is worth 96%. That's surprising. The auction and the first few tricks should be the same at every table. Not every declarer will float the six of spades. But that turns out not to matter. If you start spades by leading the king, the defense can't exploit your error without breaking the club suit. So you're still down only one.

The reason this is such a good result is that most players are bidding two hearts over two diamonds. Even given the opportunity to clarify that their support is only three cards, they still elect to show that all-important six of hearts instead. West of course doubles two hearts. Some stood their ground; others ran to two spades. But now the opponents have enough information to double that contract as well.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 9 5 2  ♥ 4 2  ♦ A 9 8 7  ♣ A 3

Partner opens with one heart in second seat. I bid one spade, and partner rebids one notrump. I have a king more than I need to bid game. That extra king means it's possible I should just raise to three notrump and not bother checking for a spade fit.

At IMPs I would do that. The fact that my spades are headed by ace-king is a plus for notrump. If spades break poorly, then, thanks to my extra high cards, I may be able to take nine tricks without needing to set up spades.

But this is matchpoints. If spades takes more tricks than notrump, three notrump will score poorly. And that's likely if spades break normally. In essence, choosing three notrump is a safety play against a bad trump break. At matchpoints, it's better to go with the odds and forgo the safety play.

I bid two clubs, artificial and forcing. Partner bids two spades and I raise to four. LHO leads the six of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ K Q 9 7 6 ♦ K J 6 ♣ K J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 9 5 2 ♥ 4 2 ♦ A 9 8 7 ♣ A 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♣
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

If I can set up hearts for diamond pitches, I may be able to avoid the diamond finesse. But I need to preserve entries to dummy, so I play the club jack and, when East plays the eight, I overtake with the ace. East would have covered if he had the queen, so West must hold it.

Should I start hearts right away, or should I cash a high trump to see if LHO drops an honor? If I lead a heart to dummy and it holds, I'd like to return to my hand with a trump to lead another heart. If I've already cashed one high spade, I'm returning to my hand with the other one. Opening up the spade suit doesn't look like a good idea. It allows the opponents to draw dummy's last trump and lead a club to tap me when they gain the lead. If I retain control of the trump suit, they can't do that. It's not clear I can manage a safety play in trumps anyway, so seeing an honor drop on my left may gain nothing. It looks better to start hearts right away.

I lead the four of hearts (better than the deuce, since if someone plays the three, his partner won't know that's his lowest heart). West hops with the ace and East follows with the eight. West shifts to the deuce of clubs (revealing he started with at least five clubs)--king--ten--three. 

If spades break and no one has a stiff heart, I can make an overtrick: cash two spades, heart to dummy, ruff a heart, concede a trump, and claim.

I play a spade. East plays the queen, and West drops the three under my ace. I cash the king of spades. West plays the six, and East discards the five of diamonds. This is the current position, with West holding two high trumps:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ K Q 9 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 9 5 2 ♥ 2 ♦ A 9 8 7 ♣ --

West started with at least nine black cards, so he is probably short in hearts. If he started with two, I can play a heart to dummy and ruff a heart, setting up the suit. If West overruffs, draws dummy's last trump, then leads a club to tap me, I have the rest. He does better not to overruff. If he pitches a club, I can lead a diamond to dummy and take one pitch. But West ruffs, draws dummy's trump, and taps me. I can't get back to dummy to pitch my last diamond.

What happens if I don't bother setting up the hearts? If I play a heart to dummy's king, then cash the queen, pitching a diamond?  If West follows, I can play another heart and pitch my last diamond. If he ruffs and draws dummy's trump, this will be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 9 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 9 5 ♥ -- ♦ A 9 8 ♣ --

If West taps me with a club, I have the rest, since, when I cash my last trump, East is squeezed in the red suits. To break up the squeeze, West must shift to a diamond. As long he has either the queen or the ten, this will give me a diamond trick and, again, I have the rest.

This looks like the right plan. All I need is three-three hearts or for West to have one diamond honor. I play a heart to dummy's king and cash the queen, pitching the seven of diamonds. West ruffs, cashes his last trump, and taps me. East shows out on the club lead, so the squeeze is no longer inferential. East is marked with all red cards. I ruff in my hand and claim.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ K Q 9 7 6 ♦ K J 6 ♣ K J
WEST Robot ♠ J 10 6 3 ♥ A J ♦ -- ♣ Q 9 7 6 5 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q ♥ 10 8 5 3 ♦ Q 10 5 4 3 2 ♣ 10 8
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 9 5 2 ♥ 4 2 ♦ A 9 8 7 ♣ A 3

Plus 620 is worth 82%. I was wrong that I needed West to have a diamond honor. Having a void worked as well. 

Raising one notrump to three would have turned out better, as one would expect when spades break poorly. After the normal diamond lead, it's easy to make four, which is worth 96%. You can actually make five by endplaying East in hearts to force another diamond play. But if you ever duck a spade, you can't do that. You can't execute a throw-in for eleven tricks if you've already lost two. Since it's hard to imagine a sensible line that doesn't involve ducking a spade at some point, making five notrump is unlikely.

Another interesting feature of this deal: Against certain declarers in four spades, East has an opportunity to place North in his debt by executing an anti-cervisial coup. At the point I pitched the seven of diamonds, such declarers would pitch the eight. Now, when South executes the squeeze, East must pitch his heart stopper--not a diamond--to prevent declarer from scoring the beer card at the end.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q 3 2  ♥ 9 3 2  ♦ A 6  ♣ A K Q 8 4

I open with one notrump. LHO and partner pass, and RHO balances with two hearts, showing hearts and a minor.

It's tempting to bid three clubs. But as a general rule it is the responsibility of the player short in the opponent's suit to act. If partner has a doubleton heart, he should balance unless he is broke. If he has three hearts, we will probably do better on defense than on offense. So I pass. LHO and partner pass also, and RHO buys it for two hearts.

I lead the king of clubs and see the following dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ Q 8 2 ♣ 9 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ A 6 ♣ A K Q 8 4

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

North had a tough problem. If his partner has five hearts, he wants to pass. But if his partner has four hearts and a five-card minor, he wants to bid two notrump to play the minor. It's a complete guess.

I don't understand why Astro, which solves such problems, isn't more popular. Playing Astro, partner bids two clubs to show hearts and a minor. With this hand, you bid two diamonds, denying three-card heart support. If partner has five hearts, he bids two hearts and you pass. If he has four hearts and a longer minor, he passes two diamonds or bids three clubs. Why play guessing games with Cappelletti when there is a convention that let's you find out what you need to know?

Declarer plays the five of clubs from dummy for whatever reason. Partner plays the six; declarer, the seven.

My proper continuation is the club queen, but I don't trust my robot partner to work out I have the ace. I don't want him ruffing this if clubs was declarer's second suit. So I lead the ace. Declarer continues his MUD convention by playing dummy's nine. Partner plays the jack; declarer, the three.

I still don't know much about declarer's hand other than that he has at least nine cards in the red suits. But I see no reason not to persist in clubs. I play the club queen. Partner follows with the ten, and declarer ruffs with the heart five.

If declarer is five-five in the red suits, it probably doesn't matter much what we do. Let's assume he's five-four one way or the other. If he is 4-5, he will probably play on spades, hoping to scramble some ruffs in his hand.

Declarer plays the four of diamonds. Since he seems to be playing for control rather than scrambling, it's likely he has five hearts, so I'll assume he's 2-5-4-2.

I duck, declarer wins with dummy's queen, and partner plays the seven. Declarer continues with the deuce of diamonds from dummy--three--king--ace.

Declarer would have ducked this trick without the diamond jack, and he wouldn't have started diamonds early with king-jack-ten fourth. So his long diamond is a loser.

If partner has the spade ace, I can lead a spade to him and get a diamond ruff. That brings us up to five tricks. Declarer will probably have the king-queen of hearts if partner has the spade ace. So we will need to score our long diamond trick to beat it. Can we?

If declarer has the spade jack, he has a guess when I lead a spade. But he should guess correctly, since I can hardly have the spade ace. Even though that gives me only 17 HCP, the prime values and good five-card suit make that hand too good for a one-notrump opening. So declarer should play low on my spade shift and unblock the jack under partner's ace. Then he can pitch his diamond loser on dummy's spade ten.

What if partner has the jack of spades? Declarer ducks the spade shift. Partner wins with his jack and gives me a ruff. I play a spade to partner's ace for the setting trick. Partner can now play his last diamond and I can ruff with the nine, uppercutting the dummy and possibly promoting a trick for down two.

What is the danger in shifting to a spade? If declarer has ace-nine, a spade shift will give him a spade trick to pitch his diamond loser on. That's a very specific layout, however. A priori, partner is three times as likely to have ace-jack third of spades as declarer is to have ace-nine doubleton, so switching to spades is the percentage play.

I lead the spade deuce. Declarer rises with the king. Partner wins with the ace, and declarer follows with the five.  Declarer must be missing the jack. He decided rising with the king was his only chance. Partner shifts to the diamond ten, declarer covers with the jack and I ruff.

That's five tricks, and the spade queen makes down one. How confident am I that partner has the spade jack? If he does, I can underlead my queen to put him on play for the uppercut, possibly yielding down two.

Wait. What am I thinking? I don't need partner to lead diamonds. Declarer has to lead them himself or concede a diamond trick at the end. So there is no reason to underlead. Queen and a spade, tapping declarer, works just as well.

I cash the spade queen. Partner follows with the six; declarer, with the jack. Wow! So declarer did misguess! I'm insulted. But now dummy has a spade trick he can pitch his diamond on. Can we stop  that? Maybe. If partner has the jack-ten of hearts, this is the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ A 6 ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ 3 ♥ 9 3 ♦ -- ♣ 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ 9 ♥ J 10 x ♦ 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K Q x x ♦ 5 ♣ --

If I play a heart or a spade, declarer has the rest. So I might as well play a club. What happens then? If declarer pitches from dummy and ruffs in his hand, partner can pitch his spade. preventing the diamond discard. So declarer must ruff the club in dummy. Partner overruffs with the ten, and declarer overruffs with the queen. He can now lead a heart to the ace and take his discard. But then he can't get off dummy. My nine of hearts promotes for the second undertrick.

I lead a club. Declarer ruffs in dummy. Partner overruffs with the ten, and declarer overruffs with the queen. It looks as if this is going to work.

It does. Partner has the jack of hearts, so declarer finishes down two,

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ Q 8 2 ♣ 9 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ A 6 ♣ A K Q 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 9 6 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ 10 9 7 3 ♣ J 10 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ K Q 7 5 4 ♦ K J 5 4 ♣ 7 3

Plus 200 is worth 100%. 

I was feeling pretty good about my defense until, stepping through the play with the double-dummy solver, I got to the point where I shifted to a low spade:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ 8 ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 9 6 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ 10 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ K Q 7 4 ♦ J 5 ♣ --

The solver said that leading the spade queen beats the contract by force.

Really? How does that work? I see. If I lead the queen, declarer covers and partner wins with the ace. Declarer can't afford to play the jack. If he does, he has only one spade winner and can't get a diamond pitch. So he must play low, blocking the suit. Partner gives me a ruff for our fifth trick. Now a ruff-sluff in clubs works the same magic it did in my line, yielding the setting trick.

Annoying. Even though I wound up beating it two on my defense, I was just lucky. Declarer should have guessed the spades and made it. The spade queen is a pretty play. It would be nice to be able to brag that I had found it.

Admittedly, the spade queen isn't 100%. If partner doesn't have jack-ten of trumps, leading low and hoping declarer misguesses is your only shot. But I think the chance that a decent declarer will misguess is pretty slim, so shifting to the spade queen looks right.

A word about using double-dummy solvers. Initially, I was wary of them. I was afraid if I used them, my brain would atrophy. I still believe that's a danger if you use them as a substitute for thinking. But when used as I did here--to see if you missed something on a deal you have already played--they can be a useful tool.

Without a double-dummy solver, I never would have realized that shifting to the spade queen beats the contract by force. Having discovered that, perhaps the next time I encounter a similar position I'll do the right thing.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ Q 4 3  ♥ 6 5  ♦ A Q 7 6  ♣ A Q 7 5

RHO passes, and I bid one diamond. LHO overcalls with one heart, partner bids one spade, and RHO raises to two hearts. I double, showing three-card spade support, and partner goes on to four spades. RHO leads the heart ten.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 3 ♥ 6 5 ♦ A Q 7 6 ♣ A Q 7 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A K 10 9 7 6 ♥ 2 ♦ 9 5 ♣ J 10 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 ♦	1 ♥	1 ♠
2 ♥	Double	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

I have one heart loser and a potential loser in each minor. I should be making this, so it's a question of overtricks.

East wins trick one with the heart king. He then lays down the heart ace. I ruff, and West follows with the eight. It appears West began with queen-ten-nine-eight; West, with ace-king-jack sixth.

What is the best play in the club suit? I suspect some declarers will lead low, guarding against a stiff king onside. That's an error. While this does pick up a stiff king onside, it loses to a stiff eight or nine offside, which is twice as likely. Leading the jack is correct.

If I lead the jack and West plays low, how confident will I be that the club king is offside? Fairly confident, I think. The robots cover any time it might gain and can't cost double dummy. From West's point of view I might have jack-empty third, so he must cover. Of course, I wouldn't lead the jack with jack-empty third, but the robots don't know that.

If West plays low, then, I can rise with the ace and draw trumps. If trumps are two-two, I can play a club, endplaying East if he began with king doubleton. Should I try endplaying East if he follows only to one trump? This works if East is 1-6-4-2. But I will suffer a club ruff if he began with 1-6-3-3. No need to worry about that now. I'll decide when the time comes.

First I need to make sure trumps aren't four-zero. I cash the ace of spades--eight--three--deuce. 

No four-zero trump break. I lead the jack of clubs, and West covers with the king. I take the ace, and East follows with the four. The diamond king is surely offside. West would have bid two hearts, not one, with ace-king-jack sixth of hearts and nothing on the side. So my only problem now is how to avoid a club loser if clubs are four-one.

Is there anything I can do? Suppose East is 2-6-4-1. I can draw one more round of trumps, then test clubs. If they don't break, I can lead the diamond nine and pass it, hoping East has king-jack-ten fourth. He will then be endplayed and will have to allow me to dispose of my club loser.

I cash the spade queen. East pitches the heart seven. East doesn't rate to have two black singletons, so clubs are probably splitting. Too bad. I hate it when you are in a normal contract and suits break. Its hard to get a good board when careless play suffices.

I draw the last trump, run clubs, and take a losing diamond finesse. Making five. This should be flat.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 3 ♥ 6 5 ♦ A Q 7 6 ♣ A Q 7 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 8 5 ♥ Q 10 9 8 ♦ 8 4 2 ♣ K 9 6		EAST Robot ♠ 2 ♥ A K J 7 4 3 ♦ K J 10 3 ♣ 8 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A K 10 9 7 6 ♥ 2 ♦ 9 5 ♣ J 10 3 2

It's not flat. Plus 650 is worth 79%!

The reason this is a good result is that quite a few players bid two spades over two hearts, which is supposed to show four-card support. 

Why does this matter? because the opponents have a good save in five hearts. Apparently East is disinclined to save after a support double for fear we are in an eight-card fit and trumps are breaking four-one. When he expects dummy to have four spades, he is happy to save. 

This suggests an interesting tactic. Could it sometimes be right to psyche a support double--to double with four trumps (when you know partner has five), hoping to entice the opponents into under-competing? I can hardly wait to try this out. If one of you beats me to it, be sure to let me know how it works out. 

I suspect the two-spade bidders didn't even realize that support doubles were on in this auction. Since partner's one spade bid promises five, they reasoned, why do I need a support double?

While there is some logic to this argument, I prefer support doubles here for several reasons:

(1) I dislike making exceptions. Double is support in most auctions after a one-heart or one-spade response. If you don't play them here, it would be easy to forget.

(2) Even when partner has five spades, it can helpful for him to know whether you have three-card or four-card support. If the opponents bid on, it might help him decide whether to compete. And it can help him in a constructive auction as well. The difference between three- and four-card support can be important if partner is contemplating a slam.

(3) I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't think responder's one spade bid promises five. There are hands with only four spades where a negative double can prove awkward. Such hands may be rare after a one diamond opening, since you can make a negative double and correct clubs to diamonds. But they are fairly common after a one club opening. If you double without diamond support after one club--one heart, you need to be prepared to correct diamonds to clubs a level higher.

Originally, negative doubles were conceived of as take-out doubles. Somewhere along the way, players started treating them as replacements for bidding the unbid major. So one of a minor--one heart--double, we were told, showed four spades and said nothing about the unbid minor.

I never bought into that idea. One diamond--pass--one spade can be a four-card suit after all. Why should the one heart overcall change anything? To my mind, negative doubles show support for both unbid suits or the ability to handle the auction. If that means you must sometimes bid one spade over a one-heart overcall with only four spades, so be it. I don't see what the problem is.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 1

Sorry for the hiatus. I've found the schedule I set for myself too tight. Covering one board from each week's Weekly Free Instant Tournament means I have from Friday to Sunday to play in the event and write up a board. If I have a busy weekend, it's difficult to do that.

So I've decided to go back to what I was doing previously: writing up all eight boards from a given Weekly Free Instant Tournament, one at a time. This gives me a week to write up each board. 

If you want to compare results, be sure to play all the boards in this week's tournament. Here is board one. I'll post board two on Sunday.

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ 9 8 4  ♥ A Q 3 2  ♦ K 6 4 3  ♣ K 9

Two passes to me. I open with one diamond. LHO bids one spades, partner makes a negative double, and RHO bids two clubs.

I bid two hearts, promising four-card support. LHO bids two spades, and partner doubles.

I'm allowed to pull, since we are known to have an eight-card heart fit. But, with three spades, I know partner's spade tricks are getting ruffed, This hand will not play well for us, so it looks right to defend. 

Admittedly, I don't have a particularly good hand for defense either. I have only two tricks on defense (one and two halves). So partner, as a passed hand, will need to contribute four. Still, I don't expect to go plus on offense. Partner thinks we can beat this, so why shouldn't I trust him?

I pass. Partner leads the nine of diamonds, and RHO tables the dummy.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 3 ♥ 10 7 6 4 ♦ A 10 2 ♣ Q J 8 7 3
		EAST Phillip ♠ 9 8 4 ♥ A Q 3 2 ♦ K 6 4 3 ♣ K 9

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
Pass	Pass	1 ♦	1 ♠
Double	2 ♣	2 ♥	2 ♠
Double	(All pass)

Declarer plays low from dummy. I win with the king and declarer follows with the five.

Partner will normally have four spades for this double. But it appears he has doubled with only three. Declarer surely has six spades. He has no reason to rebid a five-card suit freely in this auction.

How do hearts split? Partner should have only four. With five hearts and enough high cards to be doubling this, he would have bid two hearts over one spade.

What about diamonds? Is the nine a singleton or a doubleton? Clearly a doubleton. With five diamonds, declarer has no reason to finesse. He would have hopped with the ace. With four diamonds, he might finesse to cut our communications. So I know declarer's shape. He must be 6-1-4-2.

If I return a diamond, partner can put me in with the heart ace when he wins a trump trick and I can give him a diamond ruff. That brings us up to four tricks. If partner has the club ace, we have two more for down one. In fact, he doesn't need the club ace, does he? One more trump trick suffices, since declarer has no dummy entry with which to take a club finesse.

I return the six of diamonds (suit preference for hearts, even though robots don't play suit preference). Declarer follows with the seven and partner unexpectedly ruffs with the spade six. Declarer plays the ten from dummy.

So declarer is 6-1-5-1? Why didn't he go up with the diamond ace at trick one?

Partner leads the five of hearts to my ace, and declarer drops the jack. We need three more tricks. Where can we find them? If partner has the club ace and the spade king, we can manage. I can lead another diamond for partner to ruff. Then he can underlead his club ace to my king and I can play another diamond for a trump promotion.

I play the diamond three (suit preference again, suggesting a club underlead). Partner ruffs with the spade seven and leads the club ace. Oh well, unless partner's last spade is the ace, we aren't beating this.

Partner continues a club to to my king and, to my surprise, declarer follows. Really? Declarer is 5-1-5-2? He rebid a five-card spade suit?

I play another diamond. Partner ruffs with the spade jack. His last spade, the king, is now singleton, so declarer takes the rest. Down two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 3 ♥ 10 7 6 4 ♦ A 10 2 ♣ Q J 8 7 3
WEST Robot ♠ K J 7 6 ♥ K 9 8 5 ♦ 9 ♣ A 6 5 2		EAST Phillip ♠ 9 8 4 ♥ A Q 3 2 ♦ K 6 4 3 ♣ K 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A Q 10 5 2 ♥ J ♦ Q J 8 7 5 ♣ 10 4

Plus 300 is worth 71%.

Can we do better? It never crossed my mind not to give partner his second diamond ruff when I was in with the heart ace. But, since partner has two natural trump tricks, giving him ruffs doesn't accomplish anything. What happens if I continue hearts?

Say declarer ruffs and plays ace and queen of spades. Partner wins and taps him again. This will be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 ♦ A ♣ Q J 8 7
WEST Robot ♠ J ♥ K ♦ -- ♣ A 6 5 2		EAST Phillip ♠ 9 ♥ Q ♦ 4 3 ♣ K 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 10 ♥ -- ♦ Q J 8 ♣ 10 4

If declarer plays another trump, partner has a heart to cash. If he doesn't, we score our trump tricks separately. Either way he is down three.

Should I have figured that out? While it's true partner should have four spades for his double, he might have decided to make an aggressive double because of his stiff diamond. Frankly, that seems more likely than that declarer decided to rebid a five-card spade suit looking at a good hand for defense (a diamond stack and probably a four-one heart break).

Further, partner might have chosen a heart lead at trick one with this hand. With king-jack fourth of spades, going for the tap makes more sense to me than going after diamond ruffs. An initial heart lead would make the defense easy.

Still, I might have worked it out. I did wonder why declarer didn't rise with the diamond ace at trick one, but I didn't take the time to answer that question. Taking the diamond finesse with 6-1-5-1 makes no sense at all. With 5-1-5-2, ducking is more attractive. The diamond ruffs don't hurt declarer, since he is danger of being tapped out anyway. So he might as well duck and save the tempo.

So I should have realized declarer had only five spades. Even so, the right defense isn't clear. Note if declarer has the spade jack instead of partner in the above position, he gets out for down one by cashing it and pitching dummy's diamond ace. Still, I should have at least considered a heart continuation. Partner seemed to want diamond ruffs, so I complied without thinking too hard. It was a lazy defense.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 10 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K Q J  ♥ K Q 5 3 2  ♦ Q 7 6  ♣ K J

RHO opens with one heart. I could overcall with one notrump. But since the opponents are vulnerable and we aren't, it's tempting to pass, hoping to collect a penalty.

There are two problems with the approach. The first is that my defensive prospects aren't as good as my point count suggests. While I have five hearts, my spots are bad, so my heart stack may not be all that troublesome for declarer. And I have no aces; my values are all soft.

A more serious problem, however, is that if I pass, I may have no good follow-up. If the auction happens to proceed one spade--pass--one notrump, I'm in great shape. I can double, and partner will have a pretty good picture of my hand.

Other auctions, however, are more awkward. If opener rebids two hearts, my spots aren't good enough to double, so I will have to pass. If he rebids two of a minor over a one spade or one notrump response, I will have to pass then as well. 

So passing one heart will likely lead to defending something undoubled. Since this could easily be our hand for a notrump game, I'm not willing to do that. It looks better to overcall one notrump. That will not only make it easier to bid game if we have one, it will also keep the auction uncomplicated--always a good idea when playing with a robot.

I bid one notrump, LHO passes, and partner bids two notrump, a transfer to clubs. RHO passes, and I dutifully bid three clubs. LHO now comes to life with three diamonds. What's that all about? With long diamonds and a hand not good enough to double, why not bid two diamonds on the previous round? I can't imagine a hand where I would take this auction.

I have nothing further to say. I pass, and partner leads the deuce of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 6 3 ♥ A J 8 7 6 ♦ A 8 2 ♣ A 5
		EAST Phillip ♠ K Q J ♥ K Q 5 3 2 ♦ Q 7 6 ♣ K J

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
	1 ♥	1 NT	Pass
2 NT	Pass	3 ♣	3 ♦
(All pass)

Declarer apparently has ace third or fourth of spades and probably a stiff heart, since partner would have led a heart if he held the singleton. He must have six diamonds to trot out the suit unilaterally at the three-level. Perhaps he has something like

♠ A x x  ♥ x  ♦ K J 10 x x x  ♣ x x x

This would give some semblance of sense to his auction. With six good diamonds, he is happy to defend one notrump, but less happy to defend three clubs. He might have chosen to double one notrump with this hand, but perhaps not.

The next step after forming a provisional construction is to predict how the play will go. Then, if your prediction is wrong, you will know to revise your construction. If my construction on this deal is correct, declarer will probably win and play ace and a club, intending to ruff a club with the diamond ace and hook me out of the diamond queen.

My best chance for another trick is to find partner with a stiff jack of diamonds. Then declarer can't afford to ruff with the diamond ace. Even a stiff ten will force declarer to guess the diamond suit. Either the jack or ten in partner's hand makes South's decision not to double one notrump more believable. So this is a likely layout.

I have a slight problem in that I have no safe exits. On my construction, I have a safe club exit, but I don't want to commit to my construction unless I have to. While it's unlikely declarer has the club queen, I'd just as soon he didn't get any ideas about endplaying me. That means I don't want him to know I have king-queen-jack tight of spades. I'll play the spade queen at trick one, making it appear I have a spade exit. Partner will think declarer has the jack, but he doesn't have much to do on this deal, so I doubt the lie will do any harm.

I play the queen, and declarer wins with the spade ace. He then, surprisingly, plays the four of hearts to dummy's ace, partner contributing the nine, and leads a spade from dummy.

What's going on? Why isn't declarer trying to ruff a club in dummy? The most likely explanation is he doesn't have one to ruff. Perhaps he's 4-1-6-2 and intends to ruff a spade if they don't break.

But why go to the trouble to play spades from dummy? It's inconvenient to release the heart ace. He must have some reason. 

Maybe he wants me to win the second spade. Perhaps he's afraid if he leads a spade from his hand, partner will hop with the jack and shift to a club. He thinks if I win the trick, a club shift will be harder to find. Yes, that makes sense. He is hoping spades are three-three and trumps two-two. Then, if we don't get clubs going fast enough, he can pitch dummy's club on the long spade and ruff a club in dummy.

Since trumps aren't two-two, he can't do that. Say I cash both spades and play a trump. He can either draw all the trumps and lose a club or cash two trumps and pitch a club as I ruff in. He must lose either a club or a trump. Making four.

What happens if I go after the club trick? I win this spade, play a club, win the next spade and cash the club. Now he has to guess the trumps. If he misguesses, he makes only three. Since I have a notrump overcall without the diamond queen, he might well misguess.

I'm sure I'm wrong about why declarer is determined to play spades from dummy. The robots don't play at that level. But this looks like the right defense anyway. I win with the spade jack--five--eight.  Now the club king--three--six--ace.

Declarer plays another spade--king--ten--four. I lead the club jack and partner overtakes with the queen to lead the ten of hearts. Declarer plays low from dummy and ruffs it.

Now a diamond to the ace and a diamond back to the king. Partner, surprisingly, follows to the second diamond with the jack. So declarer is 4-1-5-3?

He ruffs a club in dummy. I overruff with the queen and declarer takes the rest. Making three. 

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 6 3 ♥ A J 8 7 6 ♦ A 8 2 ♣ A 5
WEST Robot ♠ 8 4 2 ♥ 10 9 ♦ J 3 ♣ Q 10 9 8 6 2		EAST Phillip ♠ K Q J ♥ K Q 5 3 2 ♦ Q 7 6 ♣ K J
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 7 5 ♥ 4 ♦ K 10 9 5 4 ♣ 7 4 3

This is a surprising 100%. The field is passing one heart. The auction then goes one spade--pass--one notrump, and they pass again. I don't get it. Isn't this exactly what you are hoping for if you pass one heart? You get the continuation you were dreaming of and then don't double? One notrump makes two, so my minus 110 beat the minus 120s. If you double, partner will pull to two clubs. Who knows what happens after that, but you will surely do better than minus 120.

There seems to be a reluctance among some players to overcall one notrump. The deal last week was, I thought, a routine one-notrump overcall and almost no one bid it. I even got some weird objections in the comments in the Bridge People group on Facebook. One person, if I understood him correctly, suggested I wouldn't have overcalled one notrump in a real game.

I find the one notrump overcall to be a very useful call. If partner has a decent hand, it makes your auction run smoothly. It can make it easy to bid a game that would be difficult to reach otherwise. Yes, sometimes LHO will double and you will have no place to run. But, so what? You can get in trouble overcalling in a suit as well. You can't bid assuming the worst will happen. If you have a bid that describes your hand perfectly, it's usually a good idea to make it.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 3 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 6  ♥ A 2  ♦ A Q 10 5 3  ♣ Q J 4 2

Partner passes, and RHO opens one spade. I bid one notrump. LHO doubles--pass--pass back to me.

After an opening bid and a one-notrump overcall, the opponents are well placed to judge their defensive prospects. So it's usually wrong to sit. And with only a single spade stopper and two possible trump suits, now is not time to make an exception. The robots play "system on" after a double, with redouble showing a long minor (a method I don't care for). So partner probably has a balanced hand. That means two diamonds rates to be a playable spot.

Still, it's wrong to bid two diamonds right away, since we might have a club fit. It would be a shame to bid two diamonds, get doubled, then see dummy hit with two diamonds and four clubs. I need to bring clubs into the picture somehow. But how?

The obvious solution is to redouble. But the tooltip shows the robots play this as natural. I can't imagine why I would ever want to redouble for play in this auction, but those are the methods I'm stuck with. Given I can't redouble, the next best choice is simply to bid two clubs. If the opponents let me play there undoubled, I'm happy even if it's not our best strain. Any port in a storm. Of course, that probably won't happen. If no one can double two clubs, then they will probably bid something. Either way, I'm off the hook.

If they do double, I'll run to two diamonds. I can't be sure diamonds is a better spot than clubs. Partner still might have four clubs for all I know. But I'm no worse off than if I had bid two diamonds right away. I gave myself an extra chance and it didn't pan out.

This is an important principle to follow in an auction where you may be in trouble: Never bypass a potentially playable spot. If you think you know where you belong and it is higher-ranking than other possible spots, you have plenty of time to get there. It doesn't hurt to try other contracts on the way and see if the opponents let you off the hook.

I have heard some object to this approach by saying it may get the opponents into a "doubling rhythm." Bidding two clubs, then running to diamonds may induce them to double two diamonds with a hand where they would let you escape if you bid it right away.

Hogwash! Competent opponents don't get into "doubling rhythms." They are looking at the same cards whether you bid two diamonds right away or get there after bidding clubs first. If they have a double of two diamonds, they will double. If they don't, they won't.

True, incompetent opponents may base their doubles on emotions rather than on the cards they are looking at. But I'm not worried about such opponents. If they double two diamonds when they don't have a double, there is no particular reason to believe they are making the right decision. There is a clear advantage in bidding clubs en route to two diamonds. I'm not going to give up that advantage for fear the opponents will do something foolish and it will work out in their favor.

Having said that, does the fact that I am playing with a robot change anything? Who knows what partner will think is going on if I bid two clubs, then run to two diamonds? Will he take me back to three clubs with two-three in the minors? Let's hope not.

I bid two clubs, and LHO doubles. Partner bids two hearts. Partner's auction makes no sense. He can't have five hearts, else he would have transferred on the previous round. So why is he running from two clubs doubled to a four-card suit? He must have a stiff club. But with 4-4-4-1, why not run to two diamonds? Or why not take advantage of the fact that we play Stayman after the double and bid that? Maybe he's 5-4-3-1. That's the only pattern I can think of where this sequence makes any sense. If we get doubled here, should I back my judgment and run to two spades?

Fortunately I don't have to make that decision. RHO comes to the rescue and bids two spades himself. Everyone passes and I have to find a lead.

RHO's reluctance to give his partner a chance to double two hearts suggests a singleton heart. So LHO rates to have six of them. That means leading partner's suit is out. Leading partner's presumed shortness, clubs, looks better. Leading an honor is usually wrong when partner is short. so I choose the deuce of clubs..

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 ♥ Q J 8 7 6 5 ♦ K J 7 ♣ K 10 8
WEST Phillip ♠ K 6 ♥ A 2 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ Q J 4 2

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
		Pass	1 ♠
1 NT	Double	Pass	Pass
2 ♣	Double	2 ♥	2 ♠
(All pass)

Dummy has six hearts as expected. Although he also has a spade, so apparently partner has only four of them. Is he actually 4-4-4-1? Or did he run from two clubs with 4-4-3-2? That makes no sense either. With a doubleton club, he should pass. I will run myself if I don't have five clubs.

Declarer plays the club eight from dummy, and partner plays the nine. Declarer wins with the ace and leads the ten of hearts.

It must be right to win this and lead the club queen. Perhaps partner can ruff out the king and lead a diamond to my ace. Then I can cash the club jack and lead another club for partner to overruff dummy.

I play the ace, and partner follows with the four. Now queen of clubs--king--six--four. So partner is 4-4-3-2. I can still give him a club ruff when I get in with the spade king.

Declarer leads the seven of spades from dummy--deuce--five. I win the king and cash the jack of clubs. Partner pitches the diamond deuce. I play another club. Partner doesn't ruff it. He pitches another diamond, allowing declarer to win the trick with the club five. Apparently he has a natural trump trick.

In time we score the spade jack and the diamond ace. Making two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 ♥ Q J 8 7 6 5 ♦ K J 7 ♣ K 10 8
WEST Phillip ♠ K 6 ♥ A 2 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ Q J 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ J 4 3 2 ♥ K 9 4 3 ♦ 6 4 2 ♣ 9 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A Q 10 9 8 5 ♥ 10 ♦ 9 8 ♣ A 7 5 3

Minus 110 is worth 79%.

If we were playing natural advances instead of "system on" after the double, partner should bid two diamonds, ostensibly to play. Then, if doubled, he can redouble to show the next two higher suits. We should escape after that start. I will pass two diamonds, and LHO will, or should, bid two hearts.

I didn't even comment on the one notrump overcall, since it struck me as routine. But it was actually an unpopular choice. Some doubled, a strange decision with a doubleton heart. But the most popular choice was two diamonds. That seems misguided to me. Not only is your diamond suit below par for a vulnerable two-level overcall. But also your likeliest game is three notrump. A one-notrump overcall makes it easier to get there than a two-diamond overcall.

Only three people were faced with the decision I was with how to handle the double of one notrump. Two sat it out and went for 500 and 800.

One ran to two diamonds. North doubled. Again, East ran to two hearts, which makes even less sense after two diamonds than after two clubs. This time, however, South passed. (Perhaps he bid when his partner doubled clubs because he thought the club fit increased their offensive potential.) When two hearts was passed around to North, he passed it out and collected 400. Presumably he was afraid his partner would pull if he doubled, and defending, even undoubled, had to be better than declaring.

So bidding two clubs did turn out to be the best way of handling the double. Although, since neither partner nor the opponents took sensible actions in any scenario, I can't claim this board proves anything. 

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 27 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ 8 5  ♥ 10 8 5  ♦ A 8 4 3 2  ♣ A K J

Three passes to me. I have 14 casino points (high-card points plus spade length). A widely accepted guideline is you need 15 casino points to open in fourth seat. I think this guideline is wrong. In my experience, passing with 14 casino tends to work out badly. And, with three-plus honor tricks, 12 HCP is an under-evaluation anyway. So I open with one diamond. 

LHO passes, partner bids two clubs, and RHO passes. Since partner is a passed hand, game is remote. I see no reason to disturb two clubs. I pass, as does LHO. RHO leads the queen of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 8 5 ♥ 10 8 5 ♦ A 8 4 3 2 ♣ A K J
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ A 7 3 ♦ Q J ♣ Q 8 7 6 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	2 ♣
(All pass)

I have six clubs, a heart, and a diamond. Eight tricks. If the diamond king is onside I have nine and a possibility of more if I can set up the diamonds. If the diamond king is offside, I might still make nine tricks if I can take a pitch on the diamond ace after losing the finesse.

Unfortunately, the opponents can cash all their major-suit tricks before I get a chance to pitch. The only way I can take a pitch is if I duck the opening lead and West switches. Is that possible? Maybe. He might switch to a trump, trying to stop me from ruffing the third round of spades. It's unlikely, but I don't see how ducking can cost.

I play a low heart from dummy. East plays the nine, and I discourage with the three. West continues with the deuce of hearts--eight--king--ace.

The opponents have their major-suit winners established, and there is no way they can mistime the cash-out. I'm going to need the diamond king onside to make an overtrick. 

Can I do better? Suppose I lead a diamond and West covers. I win, play a diamond back to my hand, lead a club to dummy, ruff a diamond (with the queen if East follows), and lead a second club to dummy. If diamonds were three-three, I get two pitches to make five. If not, I may (depending on how the minor suits split) be able to ruff another diamond and return to dummy with a third club for one pitch, making four. Since I may need three club entries for this to work, I can't afford to play any trumps before embarking on this plan. So I am taking a risk that diamond are five-one. But I'm willing to take that risk.

I'd prefer West didn't cover, so I lead the diamond jack. He covers anyway. That probably means he has king doubleton. I take dummy's ace as East follows with the seven.

I play a diamond to my queen. East follows with the six; West, with the nine.

Now a club--ten--ace--five, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 8 5 ♥ 10 ♦ 8 4 3 ♣ K J
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ 7 ♦ -- ♣ Q 8 7 6 3

I play a third diamond and ruff with the queen. West pitches the six of spades. Now another club to dummy. West pitches the spade three. So this is going to work. East has both the long diamond and the last club. I claim making four.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 8 5 ♥ 10 8 5 ♦ A 8 4 3 2 ♣ A K J
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 6 4 3 2 ♥ Q J 6 2 ♦ K 9 ♣ 10		EAST Robot ♠ A J 7 ♥ K 9 4 ♦ 10 7 6 5 ♣ 9 5 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ A 7 3 ♦ Q J ♣ Q 8 7 6 3 2

Plus 130 is worth 82%. I'm not surprised. As I've observed before, any time you must delay drawing trump, you get a good board in this field.

I did make a mistake, however. After I ducked the heart, West can hold me to nine tricks by switching to a trump, forcing me to use one of my trump entries before I'm ready. It's ironic that I ducked hoping he would switch to a trump when in fact that's the winning defense. I was so focused on trying to make an overtrick if the diamond finesse was off that I didn't consider what would happen if the finesse worked.

It's not clear whether I made the wrong play or not. But I certainly made a mistake in not recognizing the danger of ducking trick one. So let's reconsider my decision.

Ducking the heart ace is right if the diamond king is offside and the opponents misdefend. Winning the heart ace is right if I the diamond king is onside and I can use three dummy entries and West is up to finding the club switch. Both of those are parlays and both parlays depend on the caliber of the opponents. So it's a hard question to answer.

Perhaps we can make the question easier by reframing it. If West is going to continue hearts, it makes no difference whether I duck or not. So let's assume I duck and West shifts to a club. Am I happy?

If the diamond king is offside, I'm happy. If it's onside, I don't know yet. If diamonds are three-three, my duck didn't cost. If diamonds are four-two and I can't manage a second ruff, my duck didn't cost. So I'll be happy half the time and unhappy something less than half. That suggests I was right to duck.

That assumes, of course, that there is little correlation between the fact that West chooses to shift to a club and the fact that it's the right play. In other words, I'm assuming that the club shift itself doesn't significantly change the odds of who has the diamond king. 

Is that a valid assumption? It's not clear. There are few defenders who would find a club shift for the right reason. But there are probably few defenders who would find a club shift for any reason, even a bad one. So perhaps it's a mistake to give West the chance.

I'm just as happy none of this occurred to me at the time. I might still be sitting here deciding what to do.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 20 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

I never know what to answer when people ask me if I open light.

Once, I opened a hand where my counterpart at the other table passed, then responded one diamond, negative, to his partner's strong club opening.

On another occasion, playing against Betty Ann Kennedy and Carol Sanders, the auction proceeded one-club (natural)--pass--pass to me. I passed, and, when Carol laid down the dummy, my partner commented that I would have opened one spade with that hand. (For the record, four spades was cold, and we defeated one club.)

One might consider those openings light. Still, if I tell my opponents I open light, then pass with this hand:

♠ K 5  ♥ A Q 5 4 2  ♦ J 6  ♣ J 9 5 2

I suspect they will feel they had been lied to. But flat hands with scattered high cards and little playing strength aren't the ones that tempt me. This isn't a light opening in my view; it's a sub-par opening.

I know most of the field will see 11 HCP and open one heart, especially in a robot tournament, where players are loathe to risk a pass-out. But I have my standards. I pass.

LHO opens with two spades, weak, and partner bids three diamonds.

Normally I would bid three hearts or three notrump. Three hearts is probably better opposite a reliable partner, who will punt with three spades if he can't raise hearts. Three notrump may be a more practical choice with a robot. But these aren't normal circumstances. This is a "best-hand' tournament, which means partner is limited to 11 HCP. Under those conditions, it's unlikely any game is good, so I pass, and we buy it in three diamonds.

RHO leads the ten of spades.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 5 ♥ A Q 5 4 2 ♦ J 6 ♣ J 9 5 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 8 6 3 ♥ K 8 6 ♦ A K 9 4 3 ♣ 10

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
	Pass	2 ♠	3 ♦
(All pass)

I'm not sure if I'm happy with this development or not. Since most will open my hand, the field will be in four hearts. It's not clear whether that will make.

I play a low spade from dummy, East wins with the queen, and I drop the six. East continues with the ace of spades. I play the three, and West pitches the three of hearts. West wouldn't be pitching from four hearts, so that means hearts are breaking, which is disappointing. The robots almost invariably pitch count cards, so West probably has three hearts. 1-3-4-5 is his likeliest shape. If that's what he has, I must lose two diamonds and a club for down one. To make, I need for diamonds to be three-three, giving West 1-3-3-6.

East cashes the club ace. That's an awfully good hand for a weak two-bid. Ace-queen sixth and an ace? That's the kind of "light" opening I like. I would have opened one spade, not two. In any event, West must have all the remaining high cards.

East continues with the four of clubs. I ruff, and West follows with the seven.

If trumps are three-three, I can play three rounds of trumps and claim. If diamonds don't break, however, West will draw my trumps and cash his clubs for down four. That doesn't rate to be a good result.

Should I go all out to make it? I'm not competing with anyone who makes four hearts. The only tables I care about are those going down. If hold three diamonds to down one, I'll tie them. If I try to make three diamonds, I'll gain half a matchpoint against those pairs if I succeed and lose half a matchpoint if I don't. So it's a 50-50 proposition. I should try to make this only if I think I have at least a 50% shot. West is a priori more likely to be 1-3-4-5 than to be 1-3-3-6. And nothing that has happened to change those odds. So my percentage play is to cash my top trumps and run winners, conceding two trump tricks.

I do need to a ruff my spade loser spade first, though. I lead the spade eight. West pitches the nine of hearts, and I ruff in dummy. I cash the ace and king of diamonds. East plays seven-five; West plays deuce-eight. I can still try to make this by playing another diamond, but I see no reason to change my mind. I run winners, conceding down one.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 5 ♥ A Q 5 4 2 ♦ J 6 ♣ J 9 5 2
WEST Robot ♠ 10 ♥ J 9 3 ♦ Q 10 8 2 ♣ K Q 8 7 3		EAST Robot ♠ A Q 9 7 4 2 ♥ 10 7 ♦ 7 5 ♣ A 6 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 8 6 3 ♥ K 8 6 ♦ A K 9 4 3 ♣ 10

Minus 50 is worth 75%. As expected, most of the field was in four hearts. No one made it, and some managed to go down more than one.