Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 27 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ 8 5  ♥ 10 8 5  ♦ A 8 4 3 2  ♣ A K J

Three passes to me. I have 14 casino points (high-card points plus spade length). A widely accepted guideline is you need 15 casino points to open in fourth seat. I think this guideline is wrong. In my experience, passing with 14 casino tends to work out badly. And, with three-plus honor tricks, 12 HCP is an under-evaluation anyway. So I open with one diamond. 

LHO passes, partner bids two clubs, and RHO passes. Since partner is a passed hand, game is remote. I see no reason to disturb two clubs. I pass, as does LHO. RHO leads the queen of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 8 5 ♥ 10 8 5 ♦ A 8 4 3 2 ♣ A K J
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ A 7 3 ♦ Q J ♣ Q 8 7 6 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	2 ♣
(All pass)

I have six clubs, a heart, and a diamond. Eight tricks. If the diamond king is onside I have nine and a possibility of more if I can set up the diamonds. If the diamond king is offside, I might still make nine tricks if I can take a pitch on the diamond ace after losing the finesse.

Unfortunately, the opponents can cash all their major-suit tricks before I get a chance to pitch. The only way I can take a pitch is if I duck the opening lead and West switches. Is that possible? Maybe. He might switch to a trump, trying to stop me from ruffing the third round of spades. It's unlikely, but I don't see how ducking can cost.

I play a low heart from dummy. East plays the nine, and I discourage with the three. West continues with the deuce of hearts--eight--king--ace.

The opponents have their major-suit winners established, and there is no way they can mistime the cash-out. I'm going to need the diamond king onside to make an overtrick. 

Can I do better? Suppose I lead a diamond and West covers. I win, play a diamond back to my hand, lead a club to dummy, ruff a diamond (with the queen if East follows), and lead a second club to dummy. If diamonds were three-three, I get two pitches to make five. If not, I may (depending on how the minor suits split) be able to ruff another diamond and return to dummy with a third club for one pitch, making four. Since I may need three club entries for this to work, I can't afford to play any trumps before embarking on this plan. So I am taking a risk that diamond are five-one. But I'm willing to take that risk.

I'd prefer West didn't cover, so I lead the diamond jack. He covers anyway. That probably means he has king doubleton. I take dummy's ace as East follows with the seven.

I play a diamond to my queen. East follows with the six; West, with the nine.

Now a club--ten--ace--five, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 8 5 ♥ 10 ♦ 8 4 3 ♣ K J
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ 7 ♦ -- ♣ Q 8 7 6 3

I play a third diamond and ruff with the queen. West pitches the six of spades. Now another club to dummy. West pitches the spade three. So this is going to work. East has both the long diamond and the last club. I claim making four.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 8 5 ♥ 10 8 5 ♦ A 8 4 3 2 ♣ A K J
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 6 4 3 2 ♥ Q J 6 2 ♦ K 9 ♣ 10		EAST Robot ♠ A J 7 ♥ K 9 4 ♦ 10 7 6 5 ♣ 9 5 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ A 7 3 ♦ Q J ♣ Q 8 7 6 3 2

Plus 130 is worth 82%. I'm not surprised. As I've observed before, any time you must delay drawing trump, you get a good board in this field.

I did make a mistake, however. After I ducked the heart, West can hold me to nine tricks by switching to a trump, forcing me to use one of my trump entries before I'm ready. It's ironic that I ducked hoping he would switch to a trump when in fact that's the winning defense. I was so focused on trying to make an overtrick if the diamond finesse was off that I didn't consider what would happen if the finesse worked.

It's not clear whether I made the wrong play or not. But I certainly made a mistake in not recognizing the danger of ducking trick one. So let's reconsider my decision.

Ducking the heart ace is right if the diamond king is offside and the opponents misdefend. Winning the heart ace is right if I the diamond king is onside and I can use three dummy entries and West is up to finding the club switch. Both of those are parlays and both parlays depend on the caliber of the opponents. So it's a hard question to answer.

Perhaps we can make the question easier by reframing it. If West is going to continue hearts, it makes no difference whether I duck or not. So let's assume I duck and West shifts to a club. Am I happy?

If the diamond king is offside, I'm happy. If it's onside, I don't know yet. If diamonds are three-three, my duck didn't cost. If diamonds are four-two and I can't manage a second ruff, my duck didn't cost. So I'll be happy half the time and unhappy something less than half. That suggests I was right to duck.

That assumes, of course, that there is little correlation between the fact that West chooses to shift to a club and the fact that it's the right play. In other words, I'm assuming that the club shift itself doesn't significantly change the odds of who has the diamond king. 

Is that a valid assumption? It's not clear. There are few defenders who would find a club shift for the right reason. But there are probably few defenders who would find a club shift for any reason, even a bad one. So perhaps it's a mistake to give West the chance.

I'm just as happy none of this occurred to me at the time. I might still be sitting here deciding what to do.