Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 27 - Board 7

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A 7 6  ♥ J 10 9 2  ♦ A 8 5  ♣ Q 9 4

I pass in first seat, LHO opens with one club, partner bids one heart, and RHO doubles.

My choices are two clubs, showing a limit raise, or three clubs, showing a "mixed raise," that is, a good pre-emptive raise. Is this hand worth a  limit raise? I have 11 HCP, but the club queen may be worthless and I'm "4333." I also have nine losers. A typical limit raise has only eight. Still, I do have four good trumps, and my two aces mean loser count will undervalue my hand. So I'm going to value this hand as a limit raise and bid two clubs.

LHO passes, and partner bids two hearts. With four trumps, I will compete to three hearts if pushed. But they don't push. Partner buys it at two hearts, and RHO leads the club three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 7 6 ♥ J 10 9 2 ♦ A 8 5 ♣ Q 9 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 10 4 ♥ K Q 8 6 5 ♦ K 7 6 4 ♣ 10

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
	Pass	1 ♣	1 ♥
Double	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

I have five losers: one in each suit plus a second loser in spades. Four losers are unavoidable. Is there any way to avoid the second spade loser? If diamonds are three-three, I can pitch one of dummy's spades on a diamond, then ruff a spade. If they aren't, perhaps I can strip the hand and endplay someone. I'll need both spade honors in the same hand for that to work. If someone has both spade honors, it's probably East, since West might have led a spade from king-queen.

What are the opponents' shapes? I know spades are four-three. What about clubs? West might have competed to three clubs with four-card support. On the other hand, East might have competed--or at least have doubled two clubs--with six. One of the opponents seems to have one more club than he should.

I play a low club from dummy. East takes the ace, and I follow with the ten. I haven't seen the robots falsecard at trick one, so West should have the king. What about the jack? If East had the jack, he would normally play it unless he was afraid I had a stiff king.

When might he worry about that? If East expects his partner to compete with four-card club support, then the only time he would worry was if he had six clubs. But even then it's not clear letting me score a stiff king would cost. If I have a useful discard on the club queen, losing the club ace wouldn't matter. All in all, it's highly likely that the club jack is on my left.

At trick two, East shifts to the spade three. I play the jack, West plays the queen, and I take the ace. If East has the spade king, I have avoided my second spade loser.

If East does have the spade king, as seems likely, that was a dangerous shift. It suggests East has ace fifth of clubs and was afraid I could set up my club queen for a spade pitch. So I suspect clubs are four-five and it was West who under-competed.

I lead the heart jack--three--five--ace. Ace? I'm surprised that card is on my left. That gives West the spade queen, the heart ace, and the king-jack of clubs, leaving East with the spade king, queen-jack of diamonds, and the club ace. Would he have opened with that hand? The robots don't typically open with ten high-card points unless they have a fair amount of shape. Maybe I'm wrong about the club jack.

West shifts to the diamond deuce. I'm making one overtrick already. Is there any way to take a second one? Maybe if West is 4-2-4-3, I can squeeze him in the minors. For that to work, I'll need to keep the diamond ace as an entry to the club threat. So I play low from dummy. East plays the jack, and I win with the king. I play a heart to dummy. East pitches the club deuce. 

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 7 6 ♥ 9 2 ♦ A 8 ♣ Q 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 10 4 ♥ K Q 8 ♦ 7 6 4 ♣ --

West has four spades, three hearts, and at least three clubs, so he can't have four diamonds. There is nothing to do but draw the last trump and concede a spade and a diamond. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 7 6 ♥ J 10 9 2 ♦ A 8 5 ♣ Q 9 4
WEST Robot ♠ Q 9 8 5 ♥ A 7 4 ♦ 10 9 2 ♣ K 8 6		EAST Robot ♠ K 3 2 ♥ 3 ♦ Q J 3 ♣ A J 7 5 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 10 4 ♥ K Q 8 6 5 ♦ K 7 6 4 ♣ 10

As you may have noticed, there was no squeeze even if West held four diamonds. To come to nine tricks, I need to concede a spade and a diamond. And once I concede two tricks, I can't possibly take ten.

But the point of this blog is to discuss what goes through my mind as I'm playing, and retaining an entry to the club threat did pass through my mind, even though on closer examination it makes no sense. Should my lack of rigorous thinking worry me? I don't believe so. Retaining the right matrix to facilitate a squeeze is the bridge equivalent of putting your rooks on open files. You don't necessarily need to see an immediate benefit. It's just a good idea.

East's spade shift didn't cost and was arguably the right play. I rated to be 3-5-4-1. So with diamonds three-three, he was never going to enjoy a third-round spade trick on a passive defense. If his partner had held the spade ten instead of me, a spade shift would stop the overtrick. Of course, if that were the case, he would be wishing he had pushed us to the three level.

I'm not sure what the best use is for a double of two clubs, but I know from past experience that the robots play it as showing rebiddable clubs. I don't know why East didn't take advantage of that agreement here. If he had, his partner would have competed to three clubs.

This result is worth 82%, which seems generous. Apparently most declarers got a different defense, prompted by a different auction, and didn't see how to take nine tricks. It's true that one generally pitches losers from one's hand, not from dummy. Pitching a loser from dummy to enable a ruff isn't a theme one sees every day, so it's easy to have a blind spot.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 20 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q J  ♥ K Q 10 2  ♦ A 8 7 5 2  ♣ A J

RHO passes. I could open with an offshape one notrump. In general, the reason one does that is to avoid a rebid problem. A "5422" pattern with 17 HCP does not usually create a rebid problem, since you have enough strength to reverse. But with four honors in my doubletons, this hand looks more like notrump than like diamonds and hearts. Besides, the robots play unplayable methods after reverses. Responder should be able to rebid his suit without creating a game force. Since the robots don't play that way, I try to avoid reversing with robots.

Accordingly, I open with one notrump. Everyone passes, and West leads the diamond queen.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 7 3 ♥ 6 3 ♦ K 10 9 ♣ 10 6 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ K Q 10 2 ♦ A 8 7 5 2 ♣ A J

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 NT
(All pass)

Since West is missing the ten and nine, this lead is presumably from shortness. It is probably from either a singleton queen or queen-jack doubleton. It is possible, though unlikely, that the lead is from queen-small doubleton or queen-jack third.

If I think West has queen-jack, I should win this trick in my hand. I will then have two dummy entries with which to lead up to my king-queen of hearts. Queen-jack doubleton is slightly more likely than a singleton queen, so that seems like an attractive plan.

But I'm not convinced. Often the way to resolve a guess is to ask what will happen if you guess wrong. In this case, I don't mind so much if I lose to West's stiff jack, since any return he makes will be helpful. If I win this trick in my hand, lead another diamond, and West shows out, the position is awkward. East will have a productive club shift available when he gains the lead. And the blockage in diamonds may cause problems for me.

For these reasons, I decide to play West for a stiff queen. I take the diamond king. West plays the three; I play the deuce. I lead the nine, East plays the four, and I duck. I guessed wrong. West wins with the jack.

West now shifts to the five of clubs. This gives me a club trick, which I hope compensates for the misguess in diamonds. I have four diamonds and two clubs. If I can develop a heart trick in time, I will have seven.

I play low from dummy, East plays the eight, and I win with the jack. It's not clear how the clubs lie. It's possible West shifted from king-queen. It is also possible East has one or both honors and is finessing against dummy's ten.

I can now set up one heart trick to make my contract. Can I make an overtrick? I don't have the tempo to go after a spade trick, but I have ways to try for two heart tricks. One way is to finesse against the jack, either before or after driving the ace. If the finesse loses, the opponents will take two spades, two hearts, a diamond, and at least two clubs, so I will go down.

A safer approach is to lead a diamond to dummy and a heart to the queen. If East has the ace and West, the jack, neither opponent can afford to come down to a singleton heart when I run diamonds. With each opponent holding two hearts, I may be able to cash the club ace and exit with a spade, forcing them to give me a second heart trick.

This offers at best a 25% chance rather than a 50% chance. But it's safer. And the opponents may misdiscard in the end position even if the heart honors don't lie favorably. Besides, it's not clear how important the overtrick is. Some declarers will be in diamonds. Unless they manage to make three, which seems unlikely, the gain of an overtrick may not be worth the risk of going down.

I lead a diamond to the ten. West pitches the five of spades. He's probably echoing from a four-card suit.

I lead the three of hearts from dummy, and East plays the eight. The queen is the right play, since it makes it harder for West to duck the ace. West takes my queen with the ace and continues with the jack of hearts.

That's surely ace-jack doubleton. The robots assume declarer is double-dummy, so West thinks he has no chance to score his jack if I have king-ten left. He might as well lead it and hope to set up heart tricks for his partner. So it appears West is 4-2-2-5.

I'm up to eight tricks. I don't see much chance of a ninth, but who knows? I'll run the diamonds and see what happens.

I win the heart king as East follows with the four. On the diamond ace, West plays the club seven. I discard a spade from dummy, and East discards the spade six.

If I have read the position correctly, West has three spades and three clubs remaining. East has two spades, two hearts, and a singleton club. West has shown up with eight high-card points already. With eight more, he might have doubled one notrump, so he is limited to two of the four black-suit honors. Most likely, the spade honors are split and East's club singleton is an honor. So the position probably looks something like this:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 7 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 10 6 3
WEST Robot ♠ H x x ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ H x x		EAST Robot ♠ H x ♥ 9 7 5 ♦ -- ♣ H
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ 10 2 ♦ 8 ♣ A

I cash the last diamond, and West pitches the spade four, completing his echo. If I'm right that the opponents' spades are two-two, dummy's long spade isn't useful any more. Ten third of clubs might prove useful, however, especially if I'm right that East has a singleton club honor. Should I pitch a spade and hold ten third of clubs?

No, the benefit of holding ten third of clubs is an illusion. My goal is to hold the opponents to two tricks. They can certainly take two spade tricks, so I can't afford to lose a club trick as well. I might as well keep three spades in dummy in case I'm wrong that spades are two-two.

I pitch a club from dummy, and East pitches the five of hearts, confirming that hearts were two-five. Is there any way to hold the opponents to two tricks? Not that I can see, but maybe the opponents can think of something. It can't hurt to exit with a spade.

I lead the spade queen. West takes the ace, and East follows with the eight. West exits with the club nine. East plays the queen, and I take the ace. I'm out of ideas. There is nothing left to do but cash out.

I cash the heart ten. Surprisingly, both opponents follow, so my heart deuce is good. West started with ace-jack third of hearts, not ace-jack tight, and East erred with his heart pitch. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 7 3 ♥ 6 3 ♦ K 10 9 ♣ 10 6 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 5 4 2 ♥ A J 7 ♦ Q J ♣ K 9 7 5		EAST Robot ♠ K 8 6 ♥ 9 8 5 4 ♦ 6 4 3 ♣ Q 8 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ K Q 10 2 ♦ A 8 7 5 2 ♣ A J

Plus 150 is worth 86%. Those who opened with one diamond typically reached two diamonds after a take-out double by West. Some made two diamonds; some went down.

Rules For Scrambling the Opponents' Count Signals

This is a reprint of a post from twelve years ago. The discussion in this week's deal of whether to lead the seven or deuce from your hand with J72 reminded me of it.

In the ensuing discussion, I will use the name 'Fred' to refer to the defender from whom you wish to conceal information. I will use the name 'Ethel' to refer to his partner, that is, the defender whose holding you are trying to obscure. Sometimes you know ahead of time which defender is which; sometimes you don't. Sometimes Fred may be, for example, whichever defender holds the ace.

Rule 1 - If you wish to represent a particular holding for Ethel, signal as if you held that holding.

Most players know this rule when it comes to attitude signals. Declarer should play high to encourage and low to discourage (or the opposite if the opponents signal upside down). Many players do not know, however, that the rule works with count signals also.

	NORTH ♣ Q J 10 9
	SOUTH ♣ 7 6 2

Fred leads the king of clubs against a heart contract; Ethel plays the four. If Ethel has four-three doubleton, you want Fred to think that it is possible she has three clubs. So you signal as if you had three clubs (which, by sheer coincidence, you do). Since the opponents play standard count, you play low. ("Low" means any card lower than the card Ethel played. If you have choices, you should choose among them at random.)

Suppose, however, you want Fred to continue clubs. Perhaps you know--for whatever reason--that Ethel has three clubs (presumably eight-five-four), and you want Fred to waste a tempo cashing his club ace. You want to represent a doubleton in Ethel's hand, so you signal as if you had a doubleton. Since the opponents play standard count, you play high. Any card higher than Ethel's will do. By concealing the deuce, you leave open the possiblity that Ethel has four-deuce.

Rule 1 is fine if you have a specific objective in mind. But what if you don't? What if you just want to play the card that has the greatest chance of scrambling the opponents' signals? In that case, you need Rules 2 and 3.

Rule 2 - With three or more cards, play your lowest or second lowest card, choosing whichever is closest to middle in rank. If the opponents signal upside down, choose similarly between your highest or second highest spot card. 

For example,

	NORTH ♣ K Q J 10
	SOUTH ♣ 8 5 2

Which card should you lead toward dummy to scramble Ethel's count signal? Assuming standard signals, your choice is between the deuce and the five. The five, being a middle-ranking card, will work more often. Playing the deuce is right only if Ethel has four-three doubleton, since it leaves open the possibility that she has eight-five-four. Playing the five is right anytime Ethel has three clubs, since it leaves open the possibility she has a doubleton.

Note that if dummy had the nine of clubs instead of the ten, the five would work in even more cases. It would work against against any three-card holding and against any even holding that includes the ten (provided Ethel is unwilling to signal with the ten), since it leaves open the possibility she has ten-eight third.

	NORTH ♣ K Q J 10
	SOUTH ♣ 9 8 4

Now the choice is between the four and the eight. Again, the middle-ranking card, the four, is the percentage play. The eight will create an ambiguity only if Ethel has seven-six-five. The four will create an ambiguity any time Ethel has an even number.

Rule 3 - With a doubleton, give correct count with one exception: If Ethel is apt to have a card she doesn't want to part with, give false count. 

Why should you usually signal an even number with a doubleton? Because, in general, it is easier to scramble Ethel's odd signal than it is to scramble her even signal. To scramble her odd signal, all you need to do is to conceal one card lower than the card she plays (or higher if they signal upside down). To scramble her even signal, you must conceal two cards higher than the card she plays (or lower if they signal upside down).

	NORTH ♣ K Q J 10
	SOUTH ♣ 9 2

Signal as the opponents would. Play the nine if the opponents play standard signals; play the deuce if they play upside down. You hope that Ethel has an odd number of clubs, in which case playing the proper card will make it possible that she has a doubleton. It is impossible to create an ambiguity when Ethel has an even number of clubs.

	NORTH ♥ K Q 9 8 3
	SOUTH ♥ 7 2

In this layout, there are two cards outstanding that Ethel might well choose not to signal with: the jack and the ten. Ethel is apt to have one or the other of them, so the exception applies, and you should give false count.

Why does this situation create an exception? Because there are now many three-card holdings from which Ethel's play is automatically ambiguous:

♥ J 6 5

♥ J 6 4

♥ 10 6 5

♥ 10 6 4

Ethel will play low from any of these holdings, but she will also play low from:

♥ J 5

♥ J 4

♥ 10 5

♥ 10 4

(Actually, it doesn't matter whether she will play low from these doubletons or not. All that matters is that, from Fred's point of view, she might play low.)

Normally, against standard carders, you want to retain the deuce when you hold a doubleton. That way, if Ethel plays low from three, it will be possible she holds a doubleton. But if Ethel holds the jack or ten, you don't need to do that. It is already possible that she holds a doubleton. Her signal from three cards is already ambiguous without your having to do anything.

Therefore, you need to shift your attention to scrambling her signal when she holds an even number. And, as we have seen, the way to do that is signal an odd number. If Ethel plays her highest spot card from:

♥ J 6

♥ J 5

♥ J 4

♥ 10 6

♥ 10 5

♥ 10 4

♥ J 6 5 4

♥ 10 6 5 4

then retaining the seven leaves open the possibility that she has three. (If they signal upside down and she plays the lowest spot card, then retaining the deuce leaves open that possibility.)

One addendum: Declarer's choice of equals rarely matters. So, whatever card the above rules instruct you to play, you are free to play any other card of equal rank. Randomizing among equals will help to keep Fred from  exploiting these rules to divine your holding.

Am I being too cautious in saying "rarely" instead of "never"? No. I can't think of a case where declarer's choice among equals matters for an even-odd ambiguity. But it can certainly matter for a two-or-four ambiguity:

	NORTH ♣ K Q J 3
	SOUTH ♣ 9 8 2

You lead the king from dummy, and East plays the seven, presumably from seven doubleton. By Rule 1, if you want to represent three cards in East's hand, you should play low; if you want to represent four cards (so that you might have a singleton), you should play high. But, if you play high, you must play the eight. The nine will not work, since East would play the eight from eight-seven fourth. This falls under the heading of "playing the card you're known to hold."

So there you have it. A simple set of guidelines for scrambling the opponents' count signals. What's particularly nice about these rules is that the opportunity to apply them typically comes up several times per session. So, if you didn't know these rules already, your expected per session score has just gone up perhaps a couple of matchpoints.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 13 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K J 8 2  ♥ A Q 8  ♦ J 7 2  ♣ A K Q

Two passes to me. I have 20 HCP and a balanced hand, so I open with 2NT, showing 20 to 21. Partner raises to 3NT. West leads the club four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 3 ♥ 10 9 6 ♦ K Q 9 8 6 ♣ 7 5 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 8 2 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ A K Q

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

If the opponents can hold up twice in diamonds, they may be able to prevent me from running the diamond suit. I can reach dummy with the spade queen if the ace is on my left.  But if it's on my right, I can be held to two diamonds, two spades, and three clubs. If that's the case, I'll need to take two heart tricks to make this.

I play a low club from dummy, and East plays the nine. Which card should I win this trick with? East's nine could be from the nine alone, from ten-nine, or from jack-ten-nine. If it's from the nine alone and I win with the king, East will know I have the queen. If I didn't, his partner would have queen-jack-ten and would have led the queen. If I win with the queen, there is a variety of holdings his partner could have. So winning with the queen creates the most ambiguity from East's perspective.

How about from West's perspective? If West has the jack, he will know I have ace-king-queen whichever card I win with. So it looks right to win with the queen, concealing my holding from East.

I win with the queen. How should I start diamonds? The normal play is to lead low, catering to a stiff ace on my left. The problem with that approach is that, if I win the first diamond trick in dummy, I won't know yet whether diamonds are running. If I play jack of diamonds, then a diamond to dummy and it holds, I know there is a 50% chance this is the last time I will be in dummy, and I can plan the play accordingly.

How should I continue if I win the second diamond in dummy? If the spade ace is on my left, I want to continue diamonds. If it's on my right, I want to take a heart finesse, hoping to score two diamonds, two spades, three clubs, and two hearts. The spade ace and heart king are equally likely to be onside, but the heart finesse offers an additional advantage: Even if it loses, I may be able to endplay someone into leading hearts for me, enabling me to finesse against the jack. So the heart finesse offers my best chance to make the contract.

If I play a low diamond now and win the first diamond in dummy, my best continuation is less clear. Continuing diamonds is right if the spade ace is onside or if the diamond ace is doubleton. Still, the heart finesse offers excellent chances. It works if whichever honor I decide to finesse is onside or if I can maneuver an endplay. I suspect it's still right to take the heart finesse. And if I'm going to take the heart finesse however I play diamonds, it must be right to take my best play in the diamond suit and lead a low one now.

Which low card should I lead? If someone has ace third, his partner will echo to show a doubleton. I want to make it appear he is playing his lowest card from three. If West has ace third and I return to my hand for the second diamond play, he will have to make his decision before seeing his partner's second card. So if it appears East has three diamond, West may decide to win the second diamond. Is that possible for East's echo to be ambiguous? Yes. If his doubleton is headed by the five or four, then when he echoes, it will be possible he is playing low from J75 (or J74)--assuming, that is, that I haven't given the show away by playing the seven myself. So I must lead the deuce. Leading the seven would be an error.

I lead the diamond deuce. West plays the four. I play the king from dummy, and West follows with the three. Each opponent has played his lowest diamond. That's encouraging. It means no one has two small. If the suit splits three-two, it's likely that the hand with the doubleton didn't echo because he has the ace.

If I'm wrong about the position and diamonds aren't coming home, this could be the last time I'm in dummy. So it's probably a good idea to follow through with my plan of using this entry to take a heart finesse. If my only goal is to develop a second heart trick, it makes no difference whether I lead the ten and ride it or whether I lead to the queen. The jack and the king are equally likely to be onside. But if I lead to the queen, there is some chance I could wind up with eleven tricks: four diamonds, three clubs, two spades, and two hearts. If I ride the ten, I will probably lose to one honor or the other, and making five will no longer be possible.

I lead the heart ten, East plays the five, and I play the queen, losing to the king. West now shifts to the four of spades. If he has the ace, this was a very good play. It deprives me of my dummy entry prematurely. Now my only chance at running the diamond suit is finding the ace doubleton.

There is no reason to play the queen. If I play low, East may take the ace. If he doesn't, he must play the ten or nine, and my eight may come into play later. I play low, East plays the nine, and I win with the jack.

I have to lead the diamond jack to unblock the suit. If West plays the ten, I can overtake. If East then takes the ace, I'm in good shape. If not, I'm in dummy to finesse against the heart jack.

What will I do if West doesn't play the ten and the jack holds the trick? I can't run diamonds, and I can't take the heart finesse. I'll have only eight tricks after driving the spade ace. But I may be able to find a ninth in the end position.

I lead the diamond jack. West takes the ace. Yay! It appears I was right about the diamond suit. East played low from three small and West had ace doubleton. West cashes the ace of spades, and I have the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 3 ♥ 10 9 6 ♦ K Q 9 8 6 ♣ 7 5 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 10 7 4 ♥ K 4 2 ♦ A 5 4 ♣ J 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ 9 6 5 ♥ J 7 5 3 ♦ 10 3 ♣ 10 9 8 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 8 2 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ A K Q

Plus 630 is worth 64%.

I was wrong about the diamond suit after all. East failed to give count. Perhaps he thought he shouldn't squander the ten, but it's hard to see how that could matter. And failing to give count cost. It tricked his partner into winning the second diamond.

Had West ducked my diamond jack, I would then lead a spade. West must take his ace, else I'm in dummy for my heart finesse. He will then cash the diamond ace and exit with a club. I will take my two club tricks, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 9 6 ♦ K 9 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ 10 7 ♥ 4 2 ♦ -- ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ 6 ♥ J 7 ♦ -- ♣ 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 8 ♥ A 8 ♦ -- ♣ --

This was the potential end position I alluded to above. I cash the spade king, hoping the ten drops. When it doesn't, I lead a spade. If West wins and doesn't hold the last club, I'm home. If East wins and doesn't hold the last club, he must lead a heart, and I can take the finesse.

I make my contract on that line, but I lose the overtrick. In retrospect, maybe taking the heart finesse when I was in dummy was an error. It's the right play at IMPs, because it gives me my best shot at nine tricks. But it's not so clear at matchpoints. As the cards lie, it loses the overtrick against best defense. It could also lose overtricks on a variety of other layouts, even when the finesse wins.

Suppose, for example, the finesse wins and I lead another diamond. It turns out the ace is doubleton. The defense takes the ace and lead another heart. I make my contract, but I can make five if I knock out the diamond ace right away.

Even if the diamond ace is third, taking the finesse could be wrong. I take the heart finesse. It wins. I play the jack of diamonds. It holds. Now I switch to spades and take nine tricks. If he spade ace was on my right, I did well. But if it was on my left, I again made three when I could have made five.

There is fair chance that continuing diamonds will work. The ace could be doubleton. Or the suit could break favorably (three-two or ace-ten fourth on my left) with the spade ace onside. A priori, that adds up to a little more than 50%. It's well over 50% if we consider the fact that neither defender echoed in diamonds. Is it really right to take the heart finesse and give up my best chance for overtricks to guard against something that is less than even money to happen?

Take a look at the first paragraph of my analysis. ("If the opponents can hold up twice in diamonds...") As Barry Crane has said, "IMPs is for pessimists; matchpoints is for optimists." That first paragraph betrays a pessimistic, IMP style of thinking. If Crane were writing this blog, his first sentence would have been more along the lines of, "I'm starting with ten tricks if I can run the diamonds."

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 6 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ A 8  ♥ A 6 5 2  ♦ K 10 8 7  ♣ Q 7 3

LHO deals and passes. Partner passes, and RHO opens with one diamond. I have an opening bid, but I don't have support for the unbid suits, so I can't double. Besides, they've bid my best suit. When that happens, it's usually right to pass.

I pass, LHO responds one spade, partner passes, and RHO bids one notrump. Again I have no reason to bid. I pass.

LHO corrects to two diamonds, which is passed around to me. Partner has at most one diamond and passed up two opportunities to enter the auction, so he doesn't have much. While I don't in general like to defend at the two level when the opponents have found a fit, I have no reason to believe we can make anything, and we have good chances to beat two diamonds. So I pass once again.

It's not clear what to lead. I'd like to lead declarer's shortness to start an assault on his trump suit. But I don't know what his shortness is. Any of the three side suits could be right. And any is dangerous. I choose a club simply on the principle that's it's usually wrong to lead from an ace. But I have no confidence it's right. Clubs could easily be declarer's best suit.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 6 4 ♥ Q 10 ♦ Q 9 5 4 ♣ 8 6 5
WEST Phillip ♠ A 8 ♥ A 6 5 2 ♦ K 10 8 7 ♣ Q 7 3

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	Pass	Pass	1 ♦
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♦	(All pass)

Dummy and I have 20 HCP combined, leaving 20 for the unseen hands. Declarer has 12 to 14, so that leaves partner with six to eight HCP. Let's hope some of them are in clubs.

Some of them--in fact, most of them--are. Partner takes the club ace, declarer following with the four, and returns the jack. Declarer plays the king.

I'd like to unblock. Could partner be returning the jack without the ten? Might he have ace-jack third? It seems unlikely that he would he be selling to two diamonds with nine cards in the majors. And if declarer loses control, I certainly don't want clubs to be blocked. So I play the queen.

What do I expect declarer to do now? If he has a doubleton spade, he will probably lead a spade, preparing to ruff spades in his hand. If he doesn't play a spade, it's likely he has three.

He doesn't. He plays a heart, presumably trying to reach dummy to take a trump finesse. If he wins in dummy and plays a diamond to the jack, it's probably right to duck. If I win, I have nothing useful to do, and declarer will have an easy time. If I duck and declarer then cashes the trump ace, he will be in trouble. I will be able to draw his trump when I get in.

I play a low heart. Declarer plays the ten, and partner wins with the king. I wasn't expecting that. That's partner's last high-card point. Declarer has everything else.We have five tricks in top cards. We need one more to beat this.

I expect partner to play a club, but he shifts to the three of diamonds and declarer plays the deuce. Surely partner would have tried to cash a club if it were possible one was cashing. That must mean he started with five, making declarer 3-4-4-2. 

I don't care for this diamond shift. Ducking is unlikely to be effective now what declarer knows I have the diamond king. Still, I don't see how ducking can hurt. If I win the diamond and play a club and declarer ruffs, the defense can never score more than my two aces. And if declarer has another club, our club trick isn't going anywhere. I can always cash it when I win the heart ace.

I play the diamond seven. Declarer wins in dummy with the nine and, to my surprise, plays another diamond. Partner discards the club deuce, and declarer takes his ace. Declarer now leads the spade queen. I take the ace, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 6 ♥ Q ♦ Q 4 ♣ 5
WEST Phillip ♠ 8 ♥ A 5 2 ♦ K 10 ♣ 7

If I draw trumps, declarer can't afford to drive my heart ace. He must cash however many spades he can, leaving the rest for us. If he has queen-jack-ten of spades, we'll take the last two tricks for down one. If partner has the spade ten, we'll take the last three tricks for down two.

I play king and a diamond. Partner pitches the eight and three of hearts. That suggests he has the spade suit stopped. Indeed he does. Declarer cashes two spades, and we have the rest. Down two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 6 4 ♥ Q 10 ♦ Q 9 5 4 ♣ 8 6 5
WEST Phillip ♠ A 8 ♥ A 6 5 2 ♦ K 10 8 7 ♣ Q 7 3		EAST Robot ♠ 10 7 3 2 ♥ K 8 3 ♦ 3 ♣ A J 10 9 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 5 ♥ J 9 7 4 ♦ A J 6 2 ♣ K 4

Plus 200 is worth 96%. Five of the ten declarers in two diamonds made their contract. Only one other declarer was down two.

A more astute declarer might have made this by not playing a second round of trumps. I gave him the contract when I ducked my heart ace. If I hop and play ace and a spade, I can get a spade ruff when I'm in with the diamond king. Once I ducked, we could no longer beat this by force.

Should I have hopped with the heart ace? It's not clear. I had no particular reason to think partner had the heart king, but playing him for that card is an easy way to beat this. And, while my plan of ducking when declarer plays a diamond to jack seemed like a strong defense, I didn't have a clear route to six tricks in mind. I was just playing on general principles.

Playing for a layout where you can see a sure beat is often better than playing on general principles and hoping something good happens. Still, hopping and going after a spade ruff is playing for a very specific layout. I'm not sure what the best defense was.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 30 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K Q 7 2  ♥ K Q 8 2  ♦ Q 10  ♣ Q J 3

I have 15 HCP. Before bridge players started counting points, no one would consider opening a strong notrump with this hand. It has two and half honor tricks, and a strong notrump contains three and half to four. For a while I experimenting with avoiding one-notrump openings with hands like this one. It didn't work out well. But not for the reason you might expect. Opening with one of a minor let the opponents get into the auction too easily. I was losing boards not because I was missing games but because I lost the pre-emptive effect of a one-notrump opening. Paradoxically, it was precisely because my hand wasn't actually worth one notrump (at least not defensively) that it was important to open one notrump anyway and keep the opponents out of the auction.

Having learned my lesson, I upgrade and open with one notrump. Everyone passes. See? I silenced the opponents.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 8 4 ♥ A 7 ♦ 9 8 6 ♣ A 10 9 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 2 ♥ K Q 8 2 ♦ Q 10 ♣ Q J 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
(All pass)

West leads the spade five. The three is out, so this could be from length or from shortness.

The opponents can take the spade ace and some number of diamonds. If the club king is offside, I need to hope that number is four, else I'm going down.

I play the spade nine from dummy, starting an unblock, since I may want to finesse the seven at some point. I'm not too concerned this will reveal I have good spades. My play could easily be a ruse.

East takes the ace and shifts to the heart jack. The robots never seem to return their partner's suit. And, since their partners seldom lead their best suit, who can blame them? Fortunately, East didn't pick the right suit to shift to. What's the best way to keep him from shifting to diamonds if the club finesse loses?

I could win in dummy, concealing the fact that I have the heart king, then lead a spade to my hand for the club finesse. I'm not sure I care for that line, however. Not only does it give the show away that I have good spades, but it may strip RHO of his last spade, preventing him from shifting back to that suit. Perhaps it's better to win in my hand with the heart king. If West thinks his partner has the queen, he might continue hearts. And the option of returning his partner's suit is still open to him. Winning with the heart king gives him two ways to go wrong instead of one.

I play the heart king, and West plays the nine. I play the club queen--six--five--king. East shifts to the diamond deuce. Oh, well. He found it.

Is the diamond queen or ten more likely to get West to shift to a different suit after winning the diamond? If West doesn't have the jack, the ten is probably better. If he wins with the king, he may think I have ace-jack-ten; if he wins with the ace, he may think I have king-jack ten. Either way there is no future in the suit. If West does have the jack, the queen may work better. If he has ace-jack, for example, he may think I have king-queen-ten and be afraid to return the suit.

I don't have much to go on. It seems like pretty much of a toss-up. But there is one consideration that tips the scales. East may have both the ace and king. Is that possible? This is a best-hand tournament, so he is limited to 15 HCP. Ace of spades, jack of hearts, king of clubs. That's eight HCP. Yes, there is room for the ace-king of diamonds.

I go up with the queen. West plays three. Wow! Did I make the right play for the right reason? Did East really underlead the ace-king?

I have four clubs, three hearts, two spades, and a diamond. Ten tricks. I've lost two, so I have only one loser left. Do I have a squeeze? Since West presumably has the diamond jack, the only possible squeeze is a heart-spade squeeze against East. But it doesn't hurt to play it as a double squeeze anyway in case  I've misread the position. The double threat must be spades, since it's the only suit with an entry

I play a heart to the ace, a club to my jack, and cash the heart queen. West pitches the five of diamonds. I could cash a spade without destroying the squeeze matrix. But there is no reason to. Better to conceal my spade strength.

I play a club to dummy. West pitches the four of diamonds. I've reached this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 4 ♥ -- ♦ 9 ♣ 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 ♥ 8 ♦ 10 ♣ --

On the penultimate club, East pitches the diamond three. I have no use for the diamond ten. Dummy's nine works as the diamond threat, so I pitch my diamond. West pitches the spade six. I have now reached the classic double-squeeze position. East holds the heart guard. If West holds the diamond guard, neither opponent can hold spades. Of course, that's not possible. West can hardly hold ace-king-jack of diamonds.

I cash the last club. East pitches the diamond seven. Presumably he has ace-king of diamonds and the heart ten left, leaving West with the diamond jack and three spades. I pitch the heart eight, and West pitches the diamond jack. To my surprise, both opponents follow when I lead a spade from dummy, so my hand is good. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 8 4 ♥ A 7 ♦ 9 8 6 ♣ A 10 9 8 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 10 6 5 ♥ 9 4 ♦ A J 5 4 3 ♣ 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 3 ♥ J 10 6 5 3 ♦ K 7 2 ♣ K 7 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 2 ♥ K Q 8 2 ♦ Q 10 ♣ Q J 3

Plus 210 is worth 93%.

So West had ace-jack of diamonds and ducked the queen! He thought I had king-queen third and he was hoping his partner had an entry? What entry would that be? I suppose East might have held the club jack. East's diamond deuce was no help, because the robots sometimes lead low from small doubletons.

In the end position, West was still playing me for the diamond king, so he held the wrong suit. East couldn't afford the informative pitch of the diamond king, else West really would be squeezed.

Most declarers who reached the same position I did at trick four chose the diamond ten rather than the queen. West still misread the position. He took the jack and shifted. So either play sufficed to dissuade West from returning the suit. But the queen had the additional merit of winning the trick. There was no way to make five after the ten lost to the jack.