Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 13 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K J 8 2  ♥ A Q 8  ♦ J 7 2  ♣ A K Q

Two passes to me. I have 20 HCP and a balanced hand, so I open with 2NT, showing 20 to 21. Partner raises to 3NT. West leads the club four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 3 ♥ 10 9 6 ♦ K Q 9 8 6 ♣ 7 5 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 8 2 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ A K Q

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

If the opponents can hold up twice in diamonds, they may be able to prevent me from running the diamond suit. I can reach dummy with the spade queen if the ace is on my left.  But if it's on my right, I can be held to two diamonds, two spades, and three clubs. If that's the case, I'll need to take two heart tricks to make this.

I play a low club from dummy, and East plays the nine. Which card should I win this trick with? East's nine could be from the nine alone, from ten-nine, or from jack-ten-nine. If it's from the nine alone and I win with the king, East will know I have the queen. If I didn't, his partner would have queen-jack-ten and would have led the queen. If I win with the queen, there is a variety of holdings his partner could have. So winning with the queen creates the most ambiguity from East's perspective.

How about from West's perspective? If West has the jack, he will know I have ace-king-queen whichever card I win with. So it looks right to win with the queen, concealing my holding from East.

I win with the queen. How should I start diamonds? The normal play is to lead low, catering to a stiff ace on my left. The problem with that approach is that, if I win the first diamond trick in dummy, I won't know yet whether diamonds are running. If I play jack of diamonds, then a diamond to dummy and it holds, I know there is a 50% chance this is the last time I will be in dummy, and I can plan the play accordingly.

How should I continue if I win the second diamond in dummy? If the spade ace is on my left, I want to continue diamonds. If it's on my right, I want to take a heart finesse, hoping to score two diamonds, two spades, three clubs, and two hearts. The spade ace and heart king are equally likely to be onside, but the heart finesse offers an additional advantage: Even if it loses, I may be able to endplay someone into leading hearts for me, enabling me to finesse against the jack. So the heart finesse offers my best chance to make the contract.

If I play a low diamond now and win the first diamond in dummy, my best continuation is less clear. Continuing diamonds is right if the spade ace is onside or if the diamond ace is doubleton. Still, the heart finesse offers excellent chances. It works if whichever honor I decide to finesse is onside or if I can maneuver an endplay. I suspect it's still right to take the heart finesse. And if I'm going to take the heart finesse however I play diamonds, it must be right to take my best play in the diamond suit and lead a low one now.

Which low card should I lead? If someone has ace third, his partner will echo to show a doubleton. I want to make it appear he is playing his lowest card from three. If West has ace third and I return to my hand for the second diamond play, he will have to make his decision before seeing his partner's second card. So if it appears East has three diamond, West may decide to win the second diamond. Is that possible for East's echo to be ambiguous? Yes. If his doubleton is headed by the five or four, then when he echoes, it will be possible he is playing low from J75 (or J74)--assuming, that is, that I haven't given the show away by playing the seven myself. So I must lead the deuce. Leading the seven would be an error.

I lead the diamond deuce. West plays the four. I play the king from dummy, and West follows with the three. Each opponent has played his lowest diamond. That's encouraging. It means no one has two small. If the suit splits three-two, it's likely that the hand with the doubleton didn't echo because he has the ace.

If I'm wrong about the position and diamonds aren't coming home, this could be the last time I'm in dummy. So it's probably a good idea to follow through with my plan of using this entry to take a heart finesse. If my only goal is to develop a second heart trick, it makes no difference whether I lead the ten and ride it or whether I lead to the queen. The jack and the king are equally likely to be onside. But if I lead to the queen, there is some chance I could wind up with eleven tricks: four diamonds, three clubs, two spades, and two hearts. If I ride the ten, I will probably lose to one honor or the other, and making five will no longer be possible.

I lead the heart ten, East plays the five, and I play the queen, losing to the king. West now shifts to the four of spades. If he has the ace, this was a very good play. It deprives me of my dummy entry prematurely. Now my only chance at running the diamond suit is finding the ace doubleton.

There is no reason to play the queen. If I play low, East may take the ace. If he doesn't, he must play the ten or nine, and my eight may come into play later. I play low, East plays the nine, and I win with the jack.

I have to lead the diamond jack to unblock the suit. If West plays the ten, I can overtake. If East then takes the ace, I'm in good shape. If not, I'm in dummy to finesse against the heart jack.

What will I do if West doesn't play the ten and the jack holds the trick? I can't run diamonds, and I can't take the heart finesse. I'll have only eight tricks after driving the spade ace. But I may be able to find a ninth in the end position.

I lead the diamond jack. West takes the ace. Yay! It appears I was right about the diamond suit. East played low from three small and West had ace doubleton. West cashes the ace of spades, and I have the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 3 ♥ 10 9 6 ♦ K Q 9 8 6 ♣ 7 5 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 10 7 4 ♥ K 4 2 ♦ A 5 4 ♣ J 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ 9 6 5 ♥ J 7 5 3 ♦ 10 3 ♣ 10 9 8 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 8 2 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ A K Q

Plus 630 is worth 64%.

I was wrong about the diamond suit after all. East failed to give count. Perhaps he thought he shouldn't squander the ten, but it's hard to see how that could matter. And failing to give count cost. It tricked his partner into winning the second diamond.

Had West ducked my diamond jack, I would then lead a spade. West must take his ace, else I'm in dummy for my heart finesse. He will then cash the diamond ace and exit with a club. I will take my two club tricks, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 9 6 ♦ K 9 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ 10 7 ♥ 4 2 ♦ -- ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ 6 ♥ J 7 ♦ -- ♣ 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 8 ♥ A 8 ♦ -- ♣ --

This was the potential end position I alluded to above. I cash the spade king, hoping the ten drops. When it doesn't, I lead a spade. If West wins and doesn't hold the last club, I'm home. If East wins and doesn't hold the last club, he must lead a heart, and I can take the finesse.

I make my contract on that line, but I lose the overtrick. In retrospect, maybe taking the heart finesse when I was in dummy was an error. It's the right play at IMPs, because it gives me my best shot at nine tricks. But it's not so clear at matchpoints. As the cards lie, it loses the overtrick against best defense. It could also lose overtricks on a variety of other layouts, even when the finesse wins.

Suppose, for example, the finesse wins and I lead another diamond. It turns out the ace is doubleton. The defense takes the ace and lead another heart. I make my contract, but I can make five if I knock out the diamond ace right away.

Even if the diamond ace is third, taking the finesse could be wrong. I take the heart finesse. It wins. I play the jack of diamonds. It holds. Now I switch to spades and take nine tricks. If he spade ace was on my right, I did well. But if it was on my left, I again made three when I could have made five.

There is fair chance that continuing diamonds will work. The ace could be doubleton. Or the suit could break favorably (three-two or ace-ten fourth on my left) with the spade ace onside. A priori, that adds up to a little more than 50%. It's well over 50% if we consider the fact that neither defender echoed in diamonds. Is it really right to take the heart finesse and give up my best chance for overtricks to guard against something that is less than even money to happen?

Take a look at the first paragraph of my analysis. ("If the opponents can hold up twice in diamonds...") As Barry Crane has said, "IMPs is for pessimists; matchpoints is for optimists." That first paragraph betrays a pessimistic, IMP style of thinking. If Crane were writing this blog, his first sentence would have been more along the lines of, "I'm starting with ten tricks if I can run the diamonds."