Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 20 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q J  ♥ K Q 10 2  ♦ A 8 7 5 2  ♣ A J

RHO passes. I could open with an offshape one notrump. In general, the reason one does that is to avoid a rebid problem. A "5422" pattern with 17 HCP does not usually create a rebid problem, since you have enough strength to reverse. But with four honors in my doubletons, this hand looks more like notrump than like diamonds and hearts. Besides, the robots play unplayable methods after reverses. Responder should be able to rebid his suit without creating a game force. Since the robots don't play that way, I try to avoid reversing with robots.

Accordingly, I open with one notrump. Everyone passes, and West leads the diamond queen.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 7 3 ♥ 6 3 ♦ K 10 9 ♣ 10 6 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ K Q 10 2 ♦ A 8 7 5 2 ♣ A J

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 NT
(All pass)

Since West is missing the ten and nine, this lead is presumably from shortness. It is probably from either a singleton queen or queen-jack doubleton. It is possible, though unlikely, that the lead is from queen-small doubleton or queen-jack third.

If I think West has queen-jack, I should win this trick in my hand. I will then have two dummy entries with which to lead up to my king-queen of hearts. Queen-jack doubleton is slightly more likely than a singleton queen, so that seems like an attractive plan.

But I'm not convinced. Often the way to resolve a guess is to ask what will happen if you guess wrong. In this case, I don't mind so much if I lose to West's stiff jack, since any return he makes will be helpful. If I win this trick in my hand, lead another diamond, and West shows out, the position is awkward. East will have a productive club shift available when he gains the lead. And the blockage in diamonds may cause problems for me.

For these reasons, I decide to play West for a stiff queen. I take the diamond king. West plays the three; I play the deuce. I lead the nine, East plays the four, and I duck. I guessed wrong. West wins with the jack.

West now shifts to the five of clubs. This gives me a club trick, which I hope compensates for the misguess in diamonds. I have four diamonds and two clubs. If I can develop a heart trick in time, I will have seven.

I play low from dummy, East plays the eight, and I win with the jack. It's not clear how the clubs lie. It's possible West shifted from king-queen. It is also possible East has one or both honors and is finessing against dummy's ten.

I can now set up one heart trick to make my contract. Can I make an overtrick? I don't have the tempo to go after a spade trick, but I have ways to try for two heart tricks. One way is to finesse against the jack, either before or after driving the ace. If the finesse loses, the opponents will take two spades, two hearts, a diamond, and at least two clubs, so I will go down.

A safer approach is to lead a diamond to dummy and a heart to the queen. If East has the ace and West, the jack, neither opponent can afford to come down to a singleton heart when I run diamonds. With each opponent holding two hearts, I may be able to cash the club ace and exit with a spade, forcing them to give me a second heart trick.

This offers at best a 25% chance rather than a 50% chance. But it's safer. And the opponents may misdiscard in the end position even if the heart honors don't lie favorably. Besides, it's not clear how important the overtrick is. Some declarers will be in diamonds. Unless they manage to make three, which seems unlikely, the gain of an overtrick may not be worth the risk of going down.

I lead a diamond to the ten. West pitches the five of spades. He's probably echoing from a four-card suit.

I lead the three of hearts from dummy, and East plays the eight. The queen is the right play, since it makes it harder for West to duck the ace. West takes my queen with the ace and continues with the jack of hearts.

That's surely ace-jack doubleton. The robots assume declarer is double-dummy, so West thinks he has no chance to score his jack if I have king-ten left. He might as well lead it and hope to set up heart tricks for his partner. So it appears West is 4-2-2-5.

I'm up to eight tricks. I don't see much chance of a ninth, but who knows? I'll run the diamonds and see what happens.

I win the heart king as East follows with the four. On the diamond ace, West plays the club seven. I discard a spade from dummy, and East discards the spade six.

If I have read the position correctly, West has three spades and three clubs remaining. East has two spades, two hearts, and a singleton club. West has shown up with eight high-card points already. With eight more, he might have doubled one notrump, so he is limited to two of the four black-suit honors. Most likely, the spade honors are split and East's club singleton is an honor. So the position probably looks something like this:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 7 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 10 6 3
WEST Robot ♠ H x x ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ H x x		EAST Robot ♠ H x ♥ 9 7 5 ♦ -- ♣ H
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ 10 2 ♦ 8 ♣ A

I cash the last diamond, and West pitches the spade four, completing his echo. If I'm right that the opponents' spades are two-two, dummy's long spade isn't useful any more. Ten third of clubs might prove useful, however, especially if I'm right that East has a singleton club honor. Should I pitch a spade and hold ten third of clubs?

No, the benefit of holding ten third of clubs is an illusion. My goal is to hold the opponents to two tricks. They can certainly take two spade tricks, so I can't afford to lose a club trick as well. I might as well keep three spades in dummy in case I'm wrong that spades are two-two.

I pitch a club from dummy, and East pitches the five of hearts, confirming that hearts were two-five. Is there any way to hold the opponents to two tricks? Not that I can see, but maybe the opponents can think of something. It can't hurt to exit with a spade.

I lead the spade queen. West takes the ace, and East follows with the eight. West exits with the club nine. East plays the queen, and I take the ace. I'm out of ideas. There is nothing left to do but cash out.

I cash the heart ten. Surprisingly, both opponents follow, so my heart deuce is good. West started with ace-jack third of hearts, not ace-jack tight, and East erred with his heart pitch. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 7 3 ♥ 6 3 ♦ K 10 9 ♣ 10 6 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 5 4 2 ♥ A J 7 ♦ Q J ♣ K 9 7 5		EAST Robot ♠ K 8 6 ♥ 9 8 5 4 ♦ 6 4 3 ♣ Q 8 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ K Q 10 2 ♦ A 8 7 5 2 ♣ A J

Plus 150 is worth 86%. Those who opened with one diamond typically reached two diamonds after a take-out double by West. Some made two diamonds; some went down.