Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 19 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K J 10 9 3  ♥ A K Q 5  ♦ 9 2  ♣ 5 2

Partner opens with two diamonds and RHO passes. I frequently miss games opposite robot weak two bids, partly because they often have a hand that I would open with a one-bid. Could I have a game here? Possibly. Ace-king of diamonds and the spade queen may be enough for four spades if I can find some way to dispose of my fourth heart. But, if so, this will simply be another deal to add to my long list of missed games opposite robot weak two bids. I'm not going to go fishing for game when I need a maximum, a fit, and the right high cards. I pass.

LHO doubles and RHO bids two notrump, a puppet to three clubs. I pass and LHO bids three clubs, which is passed around to me.

At IMPs, passing is clear. If three clubs makes and three diamonds doesn't, or vice versa, it matters little what you do. Whether you are right or wrong, the IMPs swung will be small. The critical cases, where the stake are high, are: (1) both contracts make, in which case you must bid, or (2) both contracts go down, in which case you must pass. All you need to do is decide which of these two scenarios is more likely, which is usually an easy assessment to make. Here, it's fairly clear that (2) is more likely than (1), so it's right to pass. In general, simply competing to the three level when you have nine trumps and selling out when you have eight will achieve your objective without your having to think too hard.

At matchpoints, the decision is harder. If neither side is vulnerable (so that going down is unlikely to lose more than 100), it is right to bid even if only one of the two contracts is making. So you must judge the relative likelihood of these two scenarios: (1) At least one contract makes or (2) both contracts go down. Since this is a narrower distinction, the assessment is harder.

Partscore battles are my least favorite part of matchpoints. It feels to me as if much of the time you are simply guessing and there are a lot of matchpoints at stake. Since my judgment is geared toward IMPs, I know my instinct is to pass more than often than I should. But when I try to compensate for that fact, I sometimes overshoot. When I do compete and it turns out wrong, I feel stupid. Why didn't I just follow my instincts? I broke the "Law" and got what I deserved.

But there is no sense fretting. I have to make a decision, so I must do the best I can. Since we are vulnerable, I need to be a bit more conservative about competing. I must worry about going down two or down one doubled. But, since partner usually has quite good suits for his weak two-bids, neither seems likely. We rate to have five diamond tricks and three heart tricks, so we aren't apt to go down two. And I have enough high cards that I doubt the opponents will find a double.

So which of the two critical scenarios is more likely? It's certainly possible three diamonds is making. The queen of spades onside may be all I need. Or I might have six diamond tricks. It's also possible three clubs is making. It's not hard to see being unable to take more than one diamond and three tricks in the majors. So the parlay that both contracts go down seems like a poor bet. It's probably right to compete.

I bid three diamonds and buy it. RHO leads the four of spades.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K J 10 9 3 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ 9 2 ♣ 5 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 7 2 ♥ 3 2 ♦ A K 10 8 7 3 ♣ K 9 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			2 ♦
Pass	Pass	Double	Pass
2 NT	Pass	3 ♣	Pass
Pass	3 ♦	(All pass)

Partner again has a hand I would have opened with one diamond. Twelve total points (10 HCP plus two for the six-card suit). Two and a half honor tricks. Five and a half playing tricks. However you choose to evaluate, this looks like an opening bid to me.

The spade four is the lowest outstanding spade. So spades are apparently three-three. West would have bid two hearts with four hearts, so East must have at least four of them. That means East is probably 3-4-2-4, 3-5-2-3, or 3-5-1-4.

I play the spade jack, East takes the queen. I know the four of spades is low, but East doesn't. So I play the seven to leave open the possibility the lead is from four-deuce.

East cashes the ace of clubs. That's good news. I'm off two spades and a club, and I have a variety of ways to dispose of the third club. If I can avoid two diamond losers, I've made this. My only problem is when West holds queen-jack fourth of diamonds.

I play the club three. West plays the eight. East cashes the spade ace, and West follows with the five. Now the club jack--king--four--five. We've reached this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 10 9 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ 9 2 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 3 2 ♦ A K 10 8 7 3 ♣ 9

Can I endplay West if he has queen-jack fourth of diamonds? I might as well start by cashing a high diamond. If East drops an honor, I have nothing to think about. I cash the diamond ace--six--deuce--four.

No honor dropped. Is an endplay possible? I will need to take two ruffs in my hand and come down to a three-card end position. Say I play heart to dummy, ruff a spade, heart to dummy, ruff a heart, then ruff a club in dummy, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 10 ♥ Q ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ Q J 5 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ K 10 8 ♣ --

Now I ruff something to my hand. West overruffs and is endplayed. To reach this ending, West must have three hearts, else he can simply overruff the third heart, exit, and wait for his second trump trick. Can he have three hearts and four diamonds? That would make him 3-3-4-3. But with that pattern, he would have bid two hearts over the double. So an endplay isn't possible.

I suppose I could have reached that same conclusion more quickly simply by noting that the endplay requires me to strip him of all his non-trump cards. There is no conceivable way to strip him of his fourth club, so even thinking about an endplay was a waste of time. I need diamonds to break.

I cash the diamond king. Everyone follows. Now I play a heart to the ace, pitch my last club on a spade, and claim nine tricks.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K J 10 9 3 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ 9 2 ♣ 5 2
WEST Robot ♠ 6 5 4 ♥ 10 7 6 ♦ Q J 6 ♣ Q 10 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ A Q 8 ♥ J 9 8 4 ♦ 5 4 ♣ A J 7 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 7 2 ♥ 3 2 ♦ A K 10 8 7 3 ♣ K 9 3

Plus 110 is worth 64%.

Once again I was wrong to go against my IMP-oriented instincts. If I pass, we go plus 150 for 86%. Admittedly that seems like a lot to hope for. My hearts all cash, I get a third-round spade trick, and partner has three tricks in top cards for his pre-empt. But if I take away one of West's major-suit losers, it could easily still be right to defend. If I make one of those losers a diamond, both three clubs and three diamonds go down. In fact, three diamonds goes down even if I make his spade loser a fifth club. The defense gets two spades, a club, and two spade ruffs.

Maybe it was against the odds to compete. Matchpoints is hard.