Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 26 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q 6 2  ♥ K 8 6  ♦ Q 2  ♣ A K J 9 7

RHO passes. I open with one notrump and partner raises to three. LHO leads the ten of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 7 5 ♥ A 9 2 ♦ A J 10 8 5 ♣ 6 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q 6 2 ♥ K 8 6 ♦ Q 2 ♣ A K J 9 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

My most promising source of tricks is the diamond suit. If I take the diamond finesse and it loses (and diamonds break), I have four diamonds, a spade, two hearts, and two clubs for nine tricks--unless the opponents can take five first. If the diamond finesse wins, I have eight top tricks. I can't decide on the best way to go after a ninth until I know more about the layout.

I play low from dummy and RHO wins with the king. The deuce and six are both lower than the ten, so I don't see that it matters which one I play. I choose the deuce. East cashes the spade ace. I want to win the next spade in my hand to take the diamond finesse, so I play the six. West follows with the four. East continues with the spade three to my queen, and West follows with the eight. He should have played the nine, the card he was known to hold. I now know he holds the thirteenth spade. That means if the diamond finesse loses, the opponents have no trick to cash, giving me a shot at ten tricks.

I play the diamond queen--nine--five--six. Now another diamond--seven--eight--three. The opponents aren't necessarily giving honest count. But if they are, diamonds are four-two. I see no reason for East to duck the second diamond, so West probably has king fourth. If so, how will I continue after cashing the diamond ace?

I could just concede a diamond and let West cash the long spade to make my contract. But it's tempting to take the club finesse instead. If it wins, I've made my contract and I have a chance to make five. Of course, if it loses, I'm down. West takes the club queen, the diamond king, and the long spade. Still, this is a contract everyone should be in. Since West has eight pointed-suit cards to East's five, the club queen is a favorite to be onside. So the matchpoint odds favor a club finesse.

But if I'm going to take the club finesse, why not take it now, while it's safer to do so? If I lose to the club queen now, I'm not necessarily down. I have nine tricks if the club ten drops. And if it doesn't, perhaps I have a double squeeze.

This will be the position after West wins the club queen and cashes the last spade.

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ A 9 ♦ A J 10 ♣ 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ K 8 6 ♦ -- ♣ A K 9

If I were on lead in my hand, I could cash the ace and king of clubs, hoping to drop the ten. If West shows out, I can lead a heart to dummy's ace. This would then be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 9 ♦ A J ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ K 8 ♦ -- ♣ 9

To hold two diamonds, West must come down to a singleton heart, leaving East with the sole heart guard. The diamond ace now squeezes East in hearts and clubs.

Unfortunately, I'm not on lead when we reach the above position. West is. And a heart lead by him destroys the squeeze. For the double squeeze to work, I must cash the clubs first, squeezing West, then cash the diamond ace, squeezing East. A heart shift makes that sequence impossible. If I win in the dummy, I have no way to get back to the diamond ace. And if I win in my hand, I have no hand entry for the final squeeze against East.

Of course, West might not find a heart shift. If he leads a club, I don't even need a squeeze. If he does find a heart shift, I'll cash my winners then guess whether to try to drop the club ten or to finesse against it.

While taking the club finesse now isn't riskless, I would be quite unlucky to go down, and it gives me good chances for at least one overtrick. It is quite risky to take it later. So an immediate club finesse looks like the right play--provided I'm right that West has king doubleton of diamonds remaining. If I'm wrong and diamonds are three-three, then a losing finesse would hold me to three when I'm entitled to make four. 

How confident am I that West has king doubleton of diamonds? While the robots do sometimes falsecard when following suit, it's unlikely they are both falsecarding. And, even if they are, the club queen might be onside anyway. So I decide to take the club finesse. 

The finesses loses. West takes takes the queen and cashes the long spade. I pitch a heart from dummy and a club from my hand. East pitches the three of hearts. West doesn't find the heart shift. He leads a club into my ace-king-nine, and I claim. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 7 5 ♥ A 9 2 ♦ A J 10 8 5 ♣ 6 2
WEST Robot ♠ 10 9 8 4 ♥ 7 5 ♦ K 9 7 4 ♣ Q 10 3		EAST Robot ♠ A K 3 ♥ Q J 10 4 3 ♦ 6 3 ♣ 8 5 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q 6 2 ♥ K 8 6 ♦ Q 2 ♣ A K J 9 7

Plus 400 is worth 86%. The reason this is such a good result is a number of declarers cashed the diamond ace at the critical juncture. Then, when the king failed to drop, they took the club finesse and went down. 

Once they had made the decision to cash the diamond ace, were they right to risk their contract with the club finesse? I had briefly considered the same play. I even said the finesse was odds-on.

The finesse is indeed odds on before you cash the diamond ace. But the odds change after you cash it, because East pitches the three of hearts. The robots sometimes falsecard when following suit. But they give count pretty reliably when discarding. So you can now be fairly sure East has five hearts, making clubs three-three. That makes the club finesse even money. And if you consider that East is a passed hand, it's actually worse than even money. East can't have the club queen and the queen-jack of hearts. So we must throw out some of the hands where he holds the club queen, making it a favorite to be held by West. So, once you have reached that position, the percentage play is to drive the diamond king and ensure nine tricks.

At my table, East might have dropped the heart queen instead of the three when West cashed the long spade. This would help West find the heart shift. Unfortunately for the defense, exposing that East has queen-jack-ten of hearts simply allows me to execute a different double-squeeze, with clubs as the double threat. I cash the hearts, ending in dummy, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ A J 10 ♣ 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ 8 ♦ -- ♣ A K 9

West can hold at most two clubs, so when I cash the diamond ace, East is caught in a show-up squeeze. If he keeps a heart honor, I throw the heart eight and my clubs must be good. The only way for the defense to put me to a club guess is for West to find the heart shift on his own, retaining the possibility that he holds a heart guard.