Sunday, August 27, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - August 25 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ 8 3 2   K 4 3   A Q 6 4 3  ♣ A 9  

I open with one diamond, LHO bids two spades, weak, and partner makes a negative double.

This is the nightmare hand for rebidding after a negative double: no second suit, no stopper in the opponent's suit, and no rebiddable suit. My options are: pass, two notrump, three diamonds, and three hearts. 

If partner is short in diamonds, has at least two spades, and isn't minimum in high cards, pass might be the winner. But we have no reason to believe any of those three things is true. So passing is a shot in the dark. It would be a safer shot after a one-heart opening (with the red suits reversed, of course), since partner won't have support for our suit. But after one diamond--two spades, partner might double, for example, with a 1-4-5-3 pattern.

Two notrump might also work out. Partner might have a spade stopper, or spades might be blocked. But again, it's a shot in the dark. And holding three small spades makes the gamble that partner has a stopper a poor one. It would be a better gamble with a void.

Three hearts will be an excellent choice if we are lucky enough to catch partner with five hearts. But why should we be so lucky? Three hearts would be more attractive if we held a doubleton space, since at least we would be taking ruffs in the short hand if we have a four-three fit. 

Another problem with three hearts is that it's not 100% partner has four hearts. I know people say a negative double of one major promises at least four in the other. But what is responder supposed to do with, say,

♠ x x   A Q x   K x x  ♣ Q x x x x ?  

If pressed, most say they would "lie" and double anyway. Personally, I don't think double is a lie. It's a lie only because of the way many define the double.

If you define double as "a replacement for a one-heart response (excluding game forces with five or more hearts)," then, yes, it's a lie. But the fact most would double with the above hand suggests that's not an accurate definition. If it were, you wouldn't even consider doubling.

I prefer to define double as "take-out of spades (probably with four or five hearts)." That definition is more in keeping with the intent of the double and allows you to double with the above hand without feeling guilty. It also means that, as opener, you should be loathe to rebid in a three-card heart suit.

That brings us to three diamonds. If partner is savvy enough to avoid negative doubles with three cards in the opponent's suit, then there is a good chance partner has diamond support, so three diamonds will probably be best.  Even if partner is, say, 2-4-2-5, diamonds may be our best strain, since we are ruffing spades with the short hand (and probably being overruffed with a natural trump trick).

While any one of these four calls could work out, three diamonds will probably work out most often. Three diamonds will be a decent spot any time partner has three or more diamonds and will be a playable spot even if he has a doubleton.

I bid three diamonds. Everyone passes and LHO leads the king of spades.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 9 6
A J 9 6 2
8 5
♣ K 6 3






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ 8 3 2
K 4 3
A Q 6 4 3
♣ A 9


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
1
2 ♠ Double Pass 3
(All pass)

To my mind, a negative double is a gross error with partner's hand. More on this in the post mortem.

East drops the queen of spades on this trick. West cashes the spade ace, and East discards the heart ten. East ruffs the next spade with the diamond ten and shifts to the club queen.

Assuming hearts are coming home and the diamond king is onside, all I need is four-two diamonds to make this. Although the pitch of the heart ten makes that looks unlikely. If the pitch was a singleton (and it would be a strange choice if it wasn't), I will need East to be 1-1-4-7.

I win the club in dummy and lead a diamond--seven--queen--nine. West shows out on the diamond ace, so I'm down one.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 9 6
A J 9 6 2
8 5
♣ K 6 3


WEST
Robot
♠ A K 10 7 5 4
Q 8 7 5
9
♣ 8 2


EAST
Robot
♠ Q
10
K J 10 7 2
♣ Q J 10 7 5 4


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ 8 3 2
K 4 3
A Q 6 4 3
♣ A 9


Minus 110 is worth 50%.

Passing works out best, since we collect 500 (although the one player who chose pass somehow allowed them to make it).

Next best is two notrump. With the blockage in spades, we can make three for plus 150.

After that comes three hearts. West can hold this to three, for plus 140, by leading his singleton. In practice at the tables that played three hearts, West started with king and ace of spades and gave his partner a ruff. Declarer should now make four, since he can pick up the trumps and squeeze East in the minors. Weirdly, all but one declarer went down after that start.

My choice of three diamonds comes in dead last. Some play fourth best opening leads. I play fourth best in the auction.

But I think this result is partner's fault for making a foolish negative double. The five-card heart suit and the tripleton spade are both flaws.

Sometimes you can't avoid a negative double with five cards in the unbid major. But if you can avoid it, you should, since a double makes it difficult to reach a five-three fit. With this hand, double is easy to avoid. You simply pass. If partner reopens with a double, you bid three hearts, reaching your five-three fit without requiring partner to make a speculative bid in a three-card suit. (This works better if you play lebensohl here, so that three hearts shows some values.)

More importantly, you should avoid a negative double with three cards in the opponent's suit, especially when the opponents are vulnerable. With three opposite three in the opponent's suit, whichever side buys the contract will probably go minus. Why should that be you? Your best choice is to pass. If partner is short in their suit, he will reopen. If he isn't, you will defend and likely go plus. In this case, you will collect 200 for a 100% board.

For a fuller discussion of this principle, see The Cooperative Pass.

Sunday, August 20, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - August 18 - Board 2

Board 2
Our sides vulnerable

♠ A 4   K 3   A K 9 7 4 3  ♣ Q J 7  

RHO opens with one heart. With 17 HCP and a good six-card suit, I'm a bit overstrength for a one-trump overcall. But one-notrump overcalls are frequently overstrength after one of a major, since if you double, the chance of the auction's staying at the one level is slim, and a two notrump rebid shows a better hand than this.

I bid one trump, LHO passes, and partner bids two clubs, Stayman. I bid two diamonds and partner rebids two notrump. I have a clear acceptance. I raise to three,] ending the auction. LHO leads the deuce of hearts.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9 7
9 6
J 10 8
♣ A 10 9 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 4
K 3
A K 9 7 4 3
♣ Q J 7


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
1 1 NT
Pass 2 ♣ Pass 2
Pass 2 NT Pass 3 NT
(All pass)

If diamonds come home, I have ten tricks. If not, I'll need the club finesse. Is it possible for West to hold the club king? There are 15 HCP outstanding, so yes, it's possible.

I play low from dummy, and East takes the heart ace. That's unusual. Ducking the heart to preserve communication would be a more normal play. Winning the ace gives me the opportunity to duck the next heart when I have king third. I can then afford to lose the lead to West. That fact that East isn't worried about that possibility suggests he has the club king and isn't afraid his partner has the defense's only entry. 

In fact, holding the club king actually makes taking the ace attractive. If East ducks, I may be able to endplay him later. When I hold king doubleton, playing ace and a heart puts a stop to any possibility of my throwing him in with a heart.

East continues with the queen of hearts. West drops the four under my king. I cash the diamond ace and unblock the jack from dummy. West plays the five; East, the deuce.

I'm pretty confident East's defense marks him with the club king. So if someone shows out on the next diamond, I'm not taking the club finesse. I'll just give up a diamond and concede down one or down two, depending on how hearts break. I cash the diamond king. West follows with the six. I unblock the ten from dummy, and East drops the queen.

Good. I have ten tricks. Can I find an eleventh?. If East has the club king and both spade honors, he could be under some pressure. Suppose I come down to this ending:


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9
 --
 --
♣ A 10






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 4
 --
--
♣ Q J 7

If East has both spade honors, he must hold three spades and king doubleton of clubs, so he has had to discard all his hearts. I can now play ace and a club and make five. If East has only one spade honor, the squeeze doesn't work. He can hold me to four by coming down to two spades, two clubs, and a heart.

Maybe I can improve on that line. I don't need the club ace in the above position. The squeeze works just as well if the club ace has already been cashed. Perhaps I should lead the club queen to the ace now. This gives West a chance to cover if he has the king. I don't believe he does. But if it doesn't hurt to cater to the possibility, why not?

Or maybe it does hurt to cater to the possibility. East doesn't know my high cards. He won't be happy about discarding all his hearts. Maybe he'll play his partner for the club queen and stiff his king of clubs, letting me make six. Or, if he has just the spade jack, maybe he'll play his partner for the spade ace instead of the queen and stiff his jack.

I might improve the chances of East's going wrong by coming down to this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9 7
 --
 --
♣ A






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 4
 --
 --
♣ Q J 7

Stiffing the club ace makes it appear I have no interest in the club suit, so it might make East more likely to stiff his king. If East does have everything and comes down to three spades and two clubs, I can still make five by setting up a spade instead of a club.

All in all, playing for East to misread the position looks like a better chance than playing West for the club king. I cash the nine of diamonds. West plays the club three; East, the club five. If they are giving count, clubs are three-three, making East 3-5-2-3 or 2-6-2-3.

I cash three more diamonds, pitching clubs from dummy. On the first diamond, West pitches the six of spades; East, the jack of hearts. West appears to be giving count with four spades, so East is 3-5-2-3. If he has both spade honors, he has 15 HCP and probably would have opened with one notrump. So I suspect West has one of the spade honors, and the legitimate squeeze isn't going to work.

On the second diamond, West pitches the heart seven; East, the heart ten. If my reading is correct, East's last five cards are three spades, a heart, and king doubleton of clubs. On the final diamond, West pitches the eight of clubs. I pitch the ten of clubs from dummy, coming down to a stiff ace. East pitches the club six.

So this worked? East actually did stiff the club king? I play a club to the ace, dropping East's king, and claim the balance. Making six.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9 7
9 6
J 10 8
♣ A 10 9 2


WEST
Robot
♠ J 6 3 2
7 5 4 2
6 5
♣ 8 4 3


EAST
Robot
♠ Q 8 5
A Q J 10 8
Q 2
♣ K 6 5


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 4
K 3
A K 9 7 4 3
♣ Q J 7

100%! The extra tricks were overkill. Even making a measly four notrump would have been worth 82%. A fair number of players overcalled one heart with two diamonds, either reaching five diamonds or missing game altogether. 

Whatever you think of offshape one-notrump openings, you can't afford to be too picky with one-notrump overcalls. Frequently they make the auction run smoothly and make it easy to reach games that would be difficult to reach otherwise. This applies in sandwich position as well in direct seat. 

Sunday, August 13, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - August 11 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ A Q J 9   A K J   --  ♣ K 9 8 7 6 2  

Two passes to me. I open with one club. LHO overcalls with one diamond, partner bids one spade, and RHO bids three clubs, showing a mixed raise of diamonds (four diamonds and seven to nine support points).

I don't need much for slam. King fifth of spades and queen doubleton of clubs may be enough. King fifth of spades and ace doubleton of clubs may be enough for a grand slam. The fifth spade is important, however. If partner has only four spades and I need to ruff a club to set up the suit, I won't have a trump left to take care of the third round of hearts. I don't have a slam drive. All I have is a strong invitation.

I could bid four diamonds, a splinter, showing a spade raise with diamond shortness, but I wouldn't feel comfortable respecting a signoff. Splinters should surrender captaincy. If you splinter and want to bid over partner's signoff, you shouldn't have splintered.

Checking the tooltips, I see the robots play that an insult cue-bid (three diamonds)  shows four-card spade support and a game force. I'm not sure that's the most common treatment. I should have thought it showed a game force with doubt about strain. But I'm happy for now that they play this way. I'll bid three diamonds, and if partner shows any sign of life, I'll drive to slam.

I bid three diamonds. LHO passes, and partner bids four notrump, Blackwood.

I'm not happy about this development. It would be better if I were in control of this auction, not partner. If I make my systemic bid of five notrump, showing two keycards and a void, we might miss a grand unless partner can be counted on to bid six diamonds any time we have all the keycards. Can he?

With something like

(A) ♠ K x x x x   x   x x x  ♣ A Q x x  

he should bid six diamonds, but I have no confidence he will. Actually, that's an unlikely hand anyway. It gives the opponents too many hearts. How about something like

(B) ♠ K x x x x   x x x   A x x  ♣ A x? 

With that hand, I don't think he should bid six diamonds. I think he needs a black-suit filler rather than the wasted diamond ace.

If partner does have the diamond ace, maybe my best move is to ignore my diamond void--to just show my keycards. If we have them all, partner is required to bid five notrump, then I can bid seven spades. No, that's not going to work. I have two keycards and the trump queen, so my Blackwood response is five spades. I can't risk partner's passing that.

Suppose I lie about my keycards and show only one? If partner bids six spades, then he must have three, and I can surprise him by raising to seven. If he signs off in five spades, I can bid six. In theory, that shows that my keycard response was based on four keycards rather than one. Might this induce partner to bid a grand off an ace? I don't see how. Since I'm looking at the spade queen and both round kings, partner can't have enough to go on to seven. This plan won't get us to a grand opposed (A), but at least it will get us there opposite (B), which is the likelier hand anyway.

I bid five diamonds. Partner bids five notrump, promising all the keycards. How is that possible? He presumably has six spades not to ask about the trump queen. But if he thinks we have all the keycards, he must have only one and is assuming I have four for my five-diamond bid. Can partner really be driving to slam with only one keycard and a hand he wasn't willing to open?

One thing for sure, I don't want him to bid a grand. So I must bid six spades, denying either of the kings I actually have. That should stop him from bidding seven. If anyone asks, I'll say I made a mistake when I bid five diamonds, which might be true anyway.

I bid six spades, and everyone passes. West leads the diamond jack.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A Q J 9
A K J
--
♣ K 9 8 7 6 2






SOUTH
Robot
♠ K 7 6 5 4 3
7 5 2
Q 3 2
♣ J


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot
Pass
Pass 1 ♣ 1 1 ♠
3 ♣ 3 Pass 4 NT
Pass 5 Pass 5 NT
Pass 6 ♠ (All pass)

Partner's four-notrump bid seems a bit aggressive to me. Fortunately, I have him covered. I ruff in dummy with the trump nine. East plays the diamond seven.

I might as will get started on the club suit. I play a low club from dummy. East hops with the ace, and West follows with the five. East returns the three of clubs.

He must have ace-ten fourth and think his partner forgot to lead his singleton. I ruff small, and West follows with the queen.

Do I have a claim now? I can draw three rounds of trump and ruff a club to establish the suit. I still have a trump left to take care of dummy's heart. I claim.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A Q J 9
A K J
--
♣ K 9 8 7 6 2


WEST
Robot
♠ 10 8
Q 9 4 3
K J 10 8 4
♣ Q 5


EAST
Robot
♠ 2
10 8 6
A 9 7 6 5
♣ A 10 4 3


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K 7 6 5 4 3
7 5 2
Q 3 2
♣ J

100%!

Since we didn't have a grand, my shenanigans weren't necessary. Simply responding accurately to Blackwood would have worked just fine. So why was no one else in slam?

Almost everyone bid four spades over three clubs and played it there. I don't think they appreciated the value of this hand. As I said earlier, this hand isn't quite worth a slam drive, but it's close. If I weren't allowed to invite--if I had to choose between bidding four or six--I would choose six.

Sunday, August 6, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - August 4 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ A 10 6 5   A 8   A Q 6 5 4  ♣ A 4  

Three passes to me. I open with one diamond. Partner responds one spade, and I raise to four, ending the auction. West leads the diamond ten.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 6 5
A 8
A Q 6 5 4
♣ A 4






SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q J 7 3 2
Q 6 5 2
J 9 8 2
♣ --


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot
Pass Pass
Pass 1 Pass 1 ♠
Pass 4 ♠ (All pass)

The lead is probably a singleton. A lead from ten doubleton in dummy's suit would be unusual. So if I take a spade finesse and it loses, I will run into a ruff. Perhaps I can take advantage of the robots' belief that I am double-dummy.

If I lead the spade queen from my hand, will West cover if he has the king doubleton? If I have queen empty fifth, failing to cover will cost a trick, and the robots avoid plays that might lose and can't gain double-dummy. So yes, he will cover.

Will he cover with king third? If I have queen fifth, he can't take a spade trick whether he covers or not. If I have queen fourth, he always takes a spade trick whether he covers or not. Since it can't gain to cover, he might choose not to.

Wait. I'm wrong about that. If he has king-nine-eight, he does gain a trick by covering if East has the stiff jack. So he will cover with king-nine-eight but might choose not to with other three-card holdings.

How about king fourth? Again, he is entitled to one trick whether he covers or not, so he might not.

Let's assume that the lead is a singleton and that West will cover the spade queen with king doubleton or with king-nine-eight but not with other holdings. Under those assumptions, what is my best play if I lead the queen and West follows small? Overtaking with the ace (A) works if East has king doubleton (3 cases) or stiff king (1 case). Four cases in all. Letting the queen ride (B) works if East has a singleton eight or nine (2 cases) or a void (1 case). Three cases. (A) works more often.

Even if (B) worked more often, I would still have to consider (A). My analysis assumed West would always duck when covering can't gain, which might not be true. If he thinks his play doesn't matter, I'm not sure what he would do. Perhaps he would randomize. So I'm glad (A) is a clear winner and I don't have to worry about that.

I play the diamond ace. East plays the seven. I drop the jack, the card I'm known to hold. 

I play a club off dummy. East hops with the king. I ruff, and West follows with the eight. I lead the spade queen, intending to play the ace if West doesn't cover. He does cover. I take the ace, and East follows with the eight.

I have only a heart loser left. Can I avoid it? I can cash the club ace and draw trump. If I can then sneak a diamond past East, I can throw him in with the diamond king. If he has the heart king, he is endplayed. Is there any chance this will work?

I played the diamond jack at trick one. From East's point of view, his partner could have the nine. So he might well duck. Of course, he should know better. By time I play a diamond off dummy, he will know I began with five spades. That means I have at most five hearts and at least three diamonds. And I wouldn't play the jack at trick one with jack-empty third. Fortunately, the robots don't think that way. They make no assumptions about I would play. So East might think it's possible his partner led from ten-nine doubleton.

I cash the club ace. What should I pitch? If I pitch a diamond, East might worry I started with jack-nine third and hop when I lead a diamond off dummy. I want him to know I have at least two diamonds left, so I can't afford to pitch one. I pitch a heart instead.

I don't know whether I need to draw one round of trumps or two, but I know I want to end up in dummy, so I lead spade to my jack. Both follow. Now I lead a spade back to dummy. West plays the heart three; East, the club six.

I play a low diamond from dummy. East plays the seven. Wow! Did this actually work? I win and exit with a diamond. East wins and shifts to the heart jack--queen--king. Oh, well. It was worth a try. Making five.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 6 5
A 8
A Q 6 5 4
♣ A 4


WEST
Robot
♠ K 4
K 9 7 4 3
10
♣ Q 8 7 5 3


EAST
Robot
♠ 9 8
J 10
K 7 3
♣ K J 10 9 6 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q J 7 3 2
Q 6 5 2
J 9 8 2
♣ --

With jack-ten of hearts, East knew ducking the diamond was safe. Would he have ducked holding the heart king or the jack without the ten? We'll never know.

Plus 450 is worth 75%. Quite a few players won the opening lead and played ace and a spade, not bothering to give West a chance to cover the spade queen.

Not a single player other than me dropped the diamond jack at trick one. I thought at the time that this play was routine. But in retrospect, even though it turned out to give me a miniscule chance for a second overtrick, I think it was an error.

While the jack is "the card I'm known to hold" from East's perspective, it isn't from West's. Once I drop it, West knows the defense can't have two diamond tricks. So I must make a judgement about which opponent I prefer to keep in the dark. Since West has the critical play to make (choosing whether to cover the spade king or not), it's probably better to give West as little information as possible. It's hard to see how knowing where the diamond jack is will affect his decision. But I don't need to see how. Keeping the defender with the critical decision in the dark as much as possible is simply good practice.