Free Weekly Instant Tournament - August 4 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ A 10 6 5  ♥ A 8  ♦ A Q 6 5 4  ♣ A 4

Three passes to me. I open with one diamond. Partner responds one spade, and I raise to four, ending the auction. West leads the diamond ten.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 10 6 5 ♥ A 8 ♦ A Q 6 5 4 ♣ A 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 7 3 2 ♥ Q 6 5 2 ♦ J 9 8 2 ♣ --

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

The lead is probably a singleton. A lead from ten doubleton in dummy's suit would be unusual. So if I take a spade finesse and it loses, I will run into a ruff. Perhaps I can take advantage of the robots' belief that I am double-dummy.

If I lead the spade queen from my hand, will West cover if he has the king doubleton? If I have queen empty fifth, failing to cover will cost a trick, and the robots avoid plays that might lose and can't gain double-dummy. So yes, he will cover.

Will he cover with king third? If I have queen fifth, he can't take a spade trick whether he covers or not. If I have queen fourth, he always takes a spade trick whether he covers or not. Since it can't gain to cover, he might choose not to.

Wait. I'm wrong about that. If he has king-nine-eight, he does gain a trick by covering if East has the stiff jack. So he will cover with king-nine-eight but might choose not to with other three-card holdings.

How about king fourth? Again, he is entitled to one trick whether he covers or not, so he might not.

Let's assume that the lead is a singleton and that West will cover the spade queen with king doubleton or with king-nine-eight but not with other holdings. Under those assumptions, what is my best play if I lead the queen and West follows small? Overtaking with the ace (A) works if East has king doubleton (3 cases) or stiff king (1 case). Four cases in all. Letting the queen ride (B) works if East has a singleton eight or nine (2 cases) or a void (1 case). Three cases. (A) works more often.

Even if (B) worked more often, I would still have to consider (A). My analysis assumed West would always duck when covering can't gain, which might not be true. If he thinks his play doesn't matter, I'm not sure what he would do. Perhaps he would randomize. So I'm glad (A) is a clear winner and I don't have to worry about that.

I play the diamond ace. East plays the seven. I drop the jack, the card I'm known to hold. 

I play a club off dummy. East hops with the king. I ruff, and West follows with the eight. I lead the spade queen, intending to play the ace if West doesn't cover. He does cover. I take the ace, and East follows with the eight.

I have only a heart loser left. Can I avoid it? I can cash the club ace and draw trump. If I can then sneak a diamond past East, I can throw him in with the diamond king. If he has the heart king, he is endplayed. Is there any chance this will work?

I played the diamond jack at trick one. From East's point of view, his partner could have the nine. So he might well duck. Of course, he should know better. By time I play a diamond off dummy, he will know I began with five spades. That means I have at most five hearts and at least three diamonds. And I wouldn't play the jack at trick one with jack-empty third. Fortunately, the robots don't think that way. They make no assumptions about I would play. So East might think it's possible his partner led from ten-nine doubleton.

I cash the club ace. What should I pitch? If I pitch a diamond, East might worry I started with jack-nine third and hop when I lead a diamond off dummy. I want him to know I have at least two diamonds left, so I can't afford to pitch one. I pitch a heart instead.

I don't know whether I need to draw one round of trumps or two, but I know I want to end up in dummy, so I lead spade to my jack. Both follow. Now I lead a spade back to dummy. West plays the heart three; East, the club six.

I play a low diamond from dummy. East plays the seven. Wow! Did this actually work? I win and exit with a diamond. East wins and shifts to the heart jack--queen--king. Oh, well. It was worth a try. Making five.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 10 6 5 ♥ A 8 ♦ A Q 6 5 4 ♣ A 4
WEST Robot ♠ K 4 ♥ K 9 7 4 3 ♦ 10 ♣ Q 8 7 5 3		EAST Robot ♠ 9 8 ♥ J 10 ♦ K 7 3 ♣ K J 10 9 6 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 7 3 2 ♥ Q 6 5 2 ♦ J 9 8 2 ♣ --

With jack-ten of hearts, East knew ducking the diamond was safe. Would he have ducked holding the heart king or the jack without the ten? We'll never know.

Plus 450 is worth 75%. Quite a few players won the opening lead and played ace and a spade, not bothering to give West a chance to cover the spade queen.

Not a single player other than me dropped the diamond jack at trick one. I thought at the time that this play was routine. But in retrospect, even though it turned out to give me a miniscule chance for a second overtrick, I think it was an error.

While the jack is "the card I'm known to hold" from East's perspective, it isn't from West's. Once I drop it, West knows the defense can't have two diamond tricks. So I must make a judgement about which opponent I prefer to keep in the dark. Since West has the critical play to make (choosing whether to cover the spade king or not), it's probably better to give West as little information as possible. It's hard to see how knowing where the diamond jack is will affect his decision. But I don't need to see how. Keeping the defender with the critical decision in the dark as much as possible is simply good practice.