Sunday, August 20, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - August 18 - Board 2

Board 2
Our sides vulnerable

♠ A 4   K 3   A K 9 7 4 3  ♣ Q J 7  

RHO opens with one heart. With 17 HCP and a good six-card suit, I'm a bit overstrength for a one-trump overcall. But one-notrump overcalls are frequently overstrength after one of a major, since if you double, the chance of the auction's staying at the one level is slim, and a two notrump rebid shows a better hand than this.

I bid one trump, LHO passes, and partner bids two clubs, Stayman. I bid two diamonds and partner rebids two notrump. I have a clear acceptance. I raise to three,] ending the auction. LHO leads the deuce of hearts.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9 7
9 6
J 10 8
♣ A 10 9 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 4
K 3
A K 9 7 4 3
♣ Q J 7


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
1 1 NT
Pass 2 ♣ Pass 2
Pass 2 NT Pass 3 NT
(All pass)

If diamonds come home, I have ten tricks. If not, I'll need the club finesse. Is it possible for West to hold the club king? There are 15 HCP outstanding, so yes, it's possible.

I play low from dummy, and East takes the heart ace. That's unusual. Ducking the heart to preserve communication would be a more normal play. Winning the ace gives me the opportunity to duck the next heart when I have king third. I can then afford to lose the lead to West. That fact that East isn't worried about that possibility suggests he has the club king and isn't afraid his partner has the defense's only entry. 

In fact, holding the club king actually makes taking the ace attractive. If East ducks, I may be able to endplay him later. When I hold king doubleton, playing ace and a heart puts a stop to any possibility of my throwing him in with a heart.

East continues with the queen of hearts. West drops the four under my king. I cash the diamond ace and unblock the jack from dummy. West plays the five; East, the deuce.

I'm pretty confident East's defense marks him with the club king. So if someone shows out on the next diamond, I'm not taking the club finesse. I'll just give up a diamond and concede down one or down two, depending on how hearts break. I cash the diamond king. West follows with the six. I unblock the ten from dummy, and East drops the queen.

Good. I have ten tricks. Can I find an eleventh?. If East has the club king and both spade honors, he could be under some pressure. Suppose I come down to this ending:


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9
 --
 --
♣ A 10






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 4
 --
--
♣ Q J 7

If East has both spade honors, he must hold three spades and king doubleton of clubs, so he has had to discard all his hearts. I can now play ace and a club and make five. If East has only one spade honor, the squeeze doesn't work. He can hold me to four by coming down to two spades, two clubs, and a heart.

Maybe I can improve on that line. I don't need the club ace in the above position. The squeeze works just as well if the club ace has already been cashed. Perhaps I should lead the club queen to the ace now. This gives West a chance to cover if he has the king. I don't believe he does. But if it doesn't hurt to cater to the possibility, why not?

Or maybe it does hurt to cater to the possibility. East doesn't know my high cards. He won't be happy about discarding all his hearts. Maybe he'll play his partner for the club queen and stiff his king of clubs, letting me make six. Or, if he has just the spade jack, maybe he'll play his partner for the spade ace instead of the queen and stiff his jack.

I might improve the chances of East's going wrong by coming down to this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9 7
 --
 --
♣ A






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 4
 --
 --
♣ Q J 7

Stiffing the club ace makes it appear I have no interest in the club suit, so it might make East more likely to stiff his king. If East does have everything and comes down to three spades and two clubs, I can still make five by setting up a spade instead of a club.

All in all, playing for East to misread the position looks like a better chance than playing West for the club king. I cash the nine of diamonds. West plays the club three; East, the club five. If they are giving count, clubs are three-three, making East 3-5-2-3 or 2-6-2-3.

I cash three more diamonds, pitching clubs from dummy. On the first diamond, West pitches the six of spades; East, the jack of hearts. West appears to be giving count with four spades, so East is 3-5-2-3. If he has both spade honors, he has 15 HCP and probably would have opened with one notrump. So I suspect West has one of the spade honors, and the legitimate squeeze isn't going to work.

On the second diamond, West pitches the heart seven; East, the heart ten. If my reading is correct, East's last five cards are three spades, a heart, and king doubleton of clubs. On the final diamond, West pitches the eight of clubs. I pitch the ten of clubs from dummy, coming down to a stiff ace. East pitches the club six.

So this worked? East actually did stiff the club king? I play a club to the ace, dropping East's king, and claim the balance. Making six.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9 7
9 6
J 10 8
♣ A 10 9 2


WEST
Robot
♠ J 6 3 2
7 5 4 2
6 5
♣ 8 4 3


EAST
Robot
♠ Q 8 5
A Q J 10 8
Q 2
♣ K 6 5


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 4
K 3
A K 9 7 4 3
♣ Q J 7

100%! The extra tricks were overkill. Even making a measly four notrump would have been worth 82%. A fair number of players overcalled one heart with two diamonds, either reaching five diamonds or missing game altogether. 

Whatever you think of offshape one-notrump openings, you can't afford to be too picky with one-notrump overcalls. Frequently they make the auction run smoothly and make it easy to reach games that would be difficult to reach otherwise. This applies in sandwich position as well in direct seat. 

2 comments:

  1. Did you deem it more likely that diamonds were 2-2 than that East held the diamond Queen? I'm curious why you didn't at least discuss finessing in diamonds, given that West held at most three points.

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    Replies
    1. I don't recall if I ever considered finessing the diamond. If it did, I probably rejected it quickly, because my instincts tell me that, with hearts splitting 5.5 / 3.5, to play East for three diamonds would require a stronger inference that East holds the diamond queen than I have.

      Calculating the best play in a suit given distributional constraints is straightforward if sometimes tedious. Factoring in high-card constraints make the problem unwieldy in a hurry. Here, we aren't sure whether West has three or hearts or four. And we aren't sure what his maximum high-card holding is. It's three if East is balanced and four if he's unbalanced. (It could even be five. But in that case East is highly likely have have a singleton or void in diamonds, so we can ignore that possibility.) I made a rough calculation using those constraints, and it appears my instincts are wrong. Finessing the diamond does seem like the best play for the contract.

      I can't imagine doing this calculation at the table. I wish we had some sort of rule of thumb, like the Majority Rule, but I have no idea what that rule would be or even what form it would take.

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