Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 13 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ K Q 6 3  ♥ A 8 7  ♦ K 10 4  ♣ A K 8

RHO passes. I bid one club and partner responds with one heart. I rebid two notrump, showing 18 to 19 HCP balanced, and partner raises to three. LHO leads the deuce of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 7 ♥ J 10 6 3 ♦ A Q J 6 5 ♣ 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 6 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ K 10 4 ♣ A K 8

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♣
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

West appears to have three or four spades. What should I play from dummy at trick one? 

A lead from ace-jack third would be unusual, so I'll assume West doesn't have that. I'll also assume East will play the ace if he has it, rendering my choice at trick one immaterial. (If I decide to play the seven and East finds the eight from ace-eight third, I'll start holding my cards back.)

Under those assumptions, these are the only layouts I can think of where my play matters:

(A) ♠ AJxx	♠ 8x
(B) ♠ A8xx	♠ Jx
(C) ♠ Axxx	♠ J8
(D) ♠ Axx	♠ J8x

In (A), playing the ten gives me two spade tricks. I can take two spade tricks by playing the seven also, but I would have to lose a trick to the spade jack, and I would prefer not to do that.

In the remaining cases, I can take three spade tricks if I do the right thing. In (B), playing the ten works provided I finesse the seven on the next round, whereas playing the seven always works. In (C) and (D), playing the ten works provided I don't finesse the seven on the next round. Playing the seven again always works.

In summary: (1) playing the ten, intending to finesse the seven, works for (A) and (B) (six cases); (2) playing the ten and not finessing the seven works for (A) and (C) (four cases); and (3) playing the seven immediately works for (B), (C), and (D) (seven cases). A priori, then, the seven is the percentage play.

This assumes, however, that all these cases are equally likely, that West is just as likely to lead a spade from ace-jack fourth as from ace third. For a human, that's hardly true. He is more likely to lead from ace-jack fourth. So against a human, the ten might be a better choice.

Against that, the gain in playing the ten is uncertain. Against (A), I can always take two and only spade tricks. Playing the ten gains a tempo, not a trick. It's not clear at this point whether that tempo is meaningful.

Against a human, I'm not sure what I would do. But against a robot, who likes short-suit leads, I think the seven is probably better.

I play the seven, and East wins with the ace. So all this analysis was moot. I now have five diamond tricks, a heart, two clubs, and two spades. Ten tricks ready to cash. If I have three spade tricks, I have eleven.

At trick two, West shifts to the club queen. If the shift is from queen-jack-nine, I might be able to catch East in a club-heart squeeze for an eleventh trick. To set up the squeeze, I will have to duck a trick to correct the count, and I will have to isolate the heart guard in East's hand. If the heart honors are split, I can do both of these things by crossing to dummy and leading the heart jack. East can't afford to cover, so I will duck the trick to West. If West defends passively, I can run my winners, coming down to this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 6 ♦ 5 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A 8 ♦ -- ♣ 8

The last diamond squeezes East in hearts and clubs. West can break up the squeeze by continuing hearts. But if he has the heart nine, he can't do that.

I win the club shift with the ace; (The king clarifies the position for East.) West follows with the three. I might as well cash a spade to see if the jack drops. If it doesn't, testing for three-three spades will have to wait until after I duck the heart.

Actually, there is another reason to cash a spade. If West has jack-eight fourth, cashing a spade allows him to return the spade jack after winning his heart trick. The prospect of setting up his spade eight may make a spade continuation appealing and may prevent him from finding the heart continuation to break up the squeeze.

I cash the spade king. East follows with the eight. Too bad. Now West doesn't have a safe spade exit.

To lead the heart jack from dummy, I'll need to take the slight risk that diamonds are five-zero. I lead a low diamond to dummy's jack. Fortunately, both opponents follow. Now the heart jack--four--seven--queen.

West doesn't find a heart continuation. In fact, he leads away from his spade jack, giving my my eleventh trick in the spade suit. I claim the balance. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 7 ♥ J 10 6 3 ♦ A Q J 6 5 ♣ 10
WEST Robot ♠ J 5 4 2 ♥ Q 9 2 ♦ 9 3 2 ♣ 5 4 3		EAST Robot ♠ A 8 ♥ K 5 4 ♦ 8 7 ♣ Q J 9 7 6 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 6 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ K 10 4 ♣ A K 8

Plus 660 is worth 96%. The spade shift at the end made it easy, but there was nothing the opponents could do. East was going to be squeezed anyway.

Most declarers ran diamonds right away, destroying the possibility of a squeeze. Sometimes it's a good idea to run your winners early, forcing  the opponents to discard before they know what's going on. Sometimes that's true even it means giving up on a legitimate chance, provided that chance is small. 

I don't think that's the case here, however. The squeeze isn't all that unlikely. And it's hard to see what mistake the opponents will make if you run diamonds early.