Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K  ♥ A J 7 3  ♦ A K 5  ♣ K 10 9 7 2

I deal and open with one club. Partner bids one spade.

The obvious rebid is two hearts. But I don't like reversing with robots, since the methods they play after reverses are unplayable. Should I rebid two notrump instead? Two hearts promises at least five clubs, which might make it easier to get to a club slam if that's where we belong. And, unlike two notrump, two hearts doesn't promise a doubleton spade. The nightmare hand in the robot's methods is a minimum reverse with three-card support for responder's suit. Since that's not what I have, perhaps I can survive bidding two hearts.

I bid two hearts and partner raises to three hearts, forcing. Should I cue-bid four diamonds? That should show a little better than a minimum reverse, and this hand certainly qualifies. True, both my suits are weak. I would have a better hand if my diamond king were the club queen. But I do have seven controls and a fitting card in partner's suit. That's too much for a signoff.

Opposite a real partner, I would bid four diamonds. But the tooltip says that call shows 20+ total points. If that's what partner expects, he will be disappointed with this hand. I reluctantly bid four hearts. Partner passes, and LHO leads the diamond queen.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A Q 10 9 4 3 ♥ Q 8 6 2 ♦ 10 9 6 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K ♥ A J 7 3 ♦ A K 5 ♣ K 10 9 7 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♣
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

There are two ways to approach this hand. I could play for control: draw trumps and run the spades. Or I could play for a scramble: cash two spades and two diamonds and try for six trump tricks.

A method I sometimes use for analyzing a hand with lots of options is to look for a line that guarantees the contract on normal breaks. If I can find one, then I can use that as a starting point and try to improve on it. Let's assume that no one has a singleton spade or diamond and that hearts are three-two. Can I guarantee the contract under those conditions?

If I play to run spades, I'll need two dummy entries: one to ruff a spade, establishing the suit, and another to get back to dummy to run it. Let's say I win the diamond, cash the spade king, then play ace and a heart toward the queen. If the king is on my left, I'm home. I have one entry with the heart queen and a second entry with a club ruff. But if a heart to the queen loses to the king on my right, I'm down to one dummy entry. I can still run spades if the jack drops, but I'm not cold.

Can I do better by cashing the spade king and leading the heart jack? If the opponents take the king, I have my two entries. If they duck with king third, however, I have only one. A priori, this is a worse line than playing LHO for the heart king. LHO will have the heart king 50% of the time, but the king will be doubleton only 40% of the time (under my assumption of three-two trumps). It's actually a little better than 40% in practice, since sometimes a defender will make a mistake and win with king third. But neither line is close to a sure thing on normal breaks. And if hearts are four-one, my chances deteriorate quickly with either of these lines.

What happens if I play for a scramble? Say I win the diamond, ruff a club to dummy, play a spade to the king, ruff another club, play a diamond to my hand, ruff a third club, and cash the spade ace, pitching a diamond. That's seven tricks. I need three more. I'm down to this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 9 4 ♥ Q ♦ 10 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A J 7 3 ♦ -- ♣ K 10

I have two natural trump tricks, bringing me up to nine. Unless West led from a doubleton queen of diamonds, I can ruff a diamond for my tenth trick. If East is out of diamonds, he can complicate matters by ruffing in with the ten or nine. But if East has only two diamonds, then, under my assumption of three-two trumps, he must have at least four clubs. So I can overruff with the jack and ruff a club with the heart queen for my tenth trick.

In fact, even if my assumption of three-two trumps is wrong, I'm still OK. If East overruffs the club with the heart king, I know he began with four hearts. So if he exits with a heart, I can just duck it, letting West win his singleton and score my ace-seven at the end.

Playing for the scramble is not a sure thing under my assumptions. I still need West to have a third diamond. But, as compensation, the assumption of three-two trumps proved to be unnecessary. It's clearly a better option than playing for control, so that's the line I'll adopt.

East plays the deuce of diamonds at trick one. I win with the ace, the card I'm known to hold.

I ruff a club. West plays the four; East, the eight. Someone withheld the three. Since the opponents must have the same parity, that means someone gave false count. 

I play a spade--deuce--king--seven. I ruff another club. West plays the five; East plays the missing three.

In my walkthrough, I played a diamond to my king at this point. But I think it's better to cash a spade first, just in case something bad happens and I don't get back to dummy to cash it in time. I cash the spade ace, pitching a diamond. East plays the five; West, the eight.

I play a diamond to my king. East plays the three: West, the four. Now another club ruff. West plays the six; East, the queen.

I've reached the position above. I do have another way to score a tenth trick if I'm worried the diamond is getting overruffed. I can try to cash the spade queen. Both opponents did play up the line in spades, so perhaps spades are three-three. But I can hardly be sure of that. I see no reason to suspect West led a diamond from queen doubleton. So I'll take my chances that a diamond ruff survives.

A play a diamond. East plays the seven. I ruff, and West follows with the jack. I still have two heart tricks coming, so I've made my contract. Let's see what I can do about overtricks.

I ruff a club with the heart queen. West plays the jack: East, the ace. If the spade queen cashes, that gives me eleven tricks. It does. Now I'm down to this position.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 9 4 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A J 7 ♦ -- ♣ --

I lead a spade. East ruffs with the ten. I overruff with the jack. West overruffs with the king and must lead into my ace-seven of hearts. The heart king was was my only loser. Making six.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A Q 10 9 4 3 ♥ Q 8 6 2 ♦ 10 9 6 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ J 8 7 ♥ K 4 ♦ Q J 8 4 ♣ J 6 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ 10 9 5 ♦ 7 3 2 ♣ A Q 8 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K ♥ A J 7 3 ♦ A K 5 ♣ K 10 9 7 2

Plus 480 is worth 79%. Those who rebid two notrump reached four spades, usually making only five. Expecting an eight- or nine-card spade fit, responder didn't bother to look for a four-four heart fit. That's not necessarily the right decision. The six-card suit often serves as source of discards when it's a side suit. This hand is an example of that principle. In hearts, you can discard the diamond loser on the spades. In spades, there is no way to avoid the diamond loser. Still, North's hearts are quite weak. If hearts break badly, it may be better to play in spades. So declining to look for a four-four heart fit might be the percentage decision.

Among those who chose to reverse, no one bid four diamonds over three hearts. Although one person apparently spurned the bid because he thought his hand was too good. He chose Blackwood. His partner decided, reasonably, not to show the club void, so they stopped in five. Declarer did opt for the scramble, but he mistimed the end position and made only five.