Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A 9 4  ♥ K 9 2  ♦ Q 8  ♣ A Q 8 6 3

Partner passes. RHO opens with one notrump, 15 to 17 HCP. Normally I would not double with only 15 HCP. But this is a "best-hand" tournament, so RHO is limited to 15 HCP as well. Should I double under these conditions? 

If my club suit were better, say AQ109x, I might double. But with such weak spots, I'm hesitant. If we can't run clubs, it may be hard to come to seven tricks. There is also the factor that my robot partner is no help on defense. Even if we can beat this, I'll have to figure out how all by myself. And even if I figure out how, I may have trouble getting partner to cooperate. Passing seems the wiser course. I pass, ending the auction, and lead the six of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ J 7 5 ♦ 10 6 3 ♣ K J 9 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A 9 4 ♥ K 9 2 ♦ Q 8 ♣ A Q 8 6 3

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
		Pass	1 NT
(All pass)

Dummy has 5 HCP. Declarer is known to have 15. So partner must have exactly 5.

Declarer plays the jack of clubs from dummy--seven--four. Declarer would have ducked with the ten, so partner obviously began with ten doubleton. That makes it difficult to run the club suit. When I continue clubs, declarer can insert the nine, knowing that if this loses to partner's stiff ten, he will be unable to continue the suit. 

Declarer plays a heart from dummy. Partner plays the three; declarer, the queen. I have nothing urgent to do, so I see no reason to win this trick. Winning makes things easy for declarer. It not only establishes his suit, it also gives him a dummy entry with the heart jack. Ducking may be especially effective if declarer has the heart ten. He may then waste an entry repeating the finesse. There is, in fact, an excellent chance declarer does have the heart ten. Without it, he might just as well start hearts from his hand. So he might have found something better to do while in dummy. I play the heart deuce.

Declarer leads the deuce of diamonds from his hand. It could be right to duck. If declarer has ace-jack, hopping lets him hook partner for the king. If I duck, he may play partner for king-queen and lose a later finesse to my stiff queen. But it's not clear declarer has the flexibility to do that. After partner wins the king, I'm two to one to have the queen by restricted choice. Given his communication problems, declarer may elect not to take a finesse that's apt to fail. He might end up dropping my queen for lack of viable options. I may have a better chance at taking two diamond tricks if I hop and hope declarer uses his dummy entry to repeat the heart finesse.

Further, there is no guarantee declarer has ace-jack of diamonds. He might have king-jack and just be trying to set up tricks as best he can. If I duck and dummy's ten forces partner's ace, I'll certainly wish I had hopped.

I hop up with queen. Partner plays the seven. Can I place partner's high cards now? I assume he has the ace or king of diamonds. If he has the ace, he must hold exactly one jack to come to 5 HCP. If he has the king, he must hold either both missing jacks or the spade queen.

I might as well continue clubs. If I lead the club three, revealing my five-card suit, declarer will surely play the nine, as I noted previously. Perhaps if I lead the club eight, retaining the possibility that I began I with four clubs, declarer will play the king. If he plays the nine, he risks never taking a second club trick.

I lead the club eight. Declarer does rise with the king, and partner follows with the ten as expected. Declarer now, as I hoped, repeats the heart finesse. Five of hearts--eight--ten--king.

Can I deduce declarer's heart length? With AQ10 tight, he would have led the heart jack at trick two, so he must have four or five. Leading low twice make sense with AQ10x, since it guards against a doubleton king onside. If the finesse works, he can afford the jack on the first round only if the suit is three-three. What about AQ10xx? Low the first time, guarding against a stiff king onside, is the right play in isolation. But a stiff king is unlikely, and, given declarer's shortage of dummy entries, catering to it might be a luxury he can't afford. I suspect he would have led the jack with five hearts, enabling him to repeat the finesse. So I'll tentatively assume he has four.

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ J ♦ 10 6 ♣ 9 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A 9 4 ♥ 9 ♦ 8 ♣ A Q 3

Three clubs, a diamond, a heart, and the spade ace bring us up to six tricks. If partner has the diamond ace, declarer is down. So I'll assume partner has the king. When I run clubs, declarer must come down to five cards. What will they be?

If partner has the spade queen, declarer will come down to

♠ K J  ♥ A x  ♦ A  ♣ --

I'll exit with a heart. Declarer will win in dummy and must guess the spades to make his contract. He should guess right. If partner had the spade ace, I would exit with a diamond, setting up a diamond trick for partner while he still had an entry.

If partner has both jacks, declarer will come down to

♠ K Q  ♥ A x  ♦ A  ♣ --

Now we have no defense. So it appears I must hope partner has the diamond ace or that he has the diamond king and spade queen and declarer misplays.

I cash the ace of clubs. Partner discards the heart six, confirming my assumption that declarer has four hearts. Declarer pitches the spade deuce.

On the club queen, partner discards the spade six; declarer, the diamond five. Since this is partner's first spade, it is probably count, given the robots' proclivities. That means partner has four spades, giving declarer 3-4-4-2. Declarer is now down to two spades, two hearts, and ace-jack or king-jack of diamonds.

On the last club, partner discards the spade three; declarer, the king of diamonds. So declarer had king-jack of diamonds, which leaves him with king-queen of spades. This must be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 ♥ J ♦ 10 6 ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ A 9 4 ♥ 9 ♦ 8 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ J x ♥ -- ♦ A x x ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q ♥ A x ♦ J  ♣ --

Dummy's diamond ten saved declarer from being squeezed. There is no way to take anything other than our two aces. I exit with a heart to dummy's jack. Declarer leads a spade to the king and my ace. I play a diamond to partner's ace. Down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ J 7 5 ♦ 10 6 3 ♣ K J 9 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A 9 4 ♥ K 9 2 ♦ Q 8 ♣ A Q 8 6 3		EAST Robot ♠ J 6 5 3 ♥ 8 6 3 ♦ A 9 7 4 ♣ 10 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 2 ♥ A Q 10 4 ♦ K J 5 2 ♣ 5 4

Plus 50 is worth 86%. Continuing with the eight of clubs rather than the three proved to be critical. Everyone who continued with the three saw declarer insert the nine. The defense is much better placed if declarer rises with the club king, and he has no reason to do that if he knows you began with five clubs. 

Although it turned out not to matter, I might have defended a little better. Let's consider again the case where partner has the diamond king and the spade queen. As I said earlier, if I run clubs, declarer comes down to:

♠ K J  ♥ A x  ♦ A  ♣ --

When I exit with a heart, he wins in dummy and must the guess the spades, which he should "guess" correctly.

But what if the jack of hearts wasn't in dummy? If my heart exit tosses declarer back in his hand, he's down. So I would like declarer to lead the heart jack from dummy when he takes the second finesse. Let's back up to that point. Here is the imagined position, with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ J 7 ♦ 10 6 ♣ 9 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A 9 4 ♥ K 9 ♦ 8 ♣ A Q 3		EAST Robot ♠ Q 6 5 3 ♥ 8 6 ♦ K 9 4 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K J 2 ♥ A 10 4 ♦ A J 5 ♣ --

As the play went, a low heart now, guarding against king doubleton onside, is the correct play. And declarer should then make his contract. But what if  I had played the nine rather than the deuce when I ducked? Now it's reasonable for declarer to lead the jack for the second finesse, playing me for nine-eight doubleton. If he does lead the jack, then I can win with the king, run my clubs, and exit with a heart, forcing declarer to lead spades from his hand for down one.

Obviously at the time I ducked the heart king, I didn't know enough about the layout to see how playing the nine might gain. But I think I should have found the play anyway on general principles. The falsecard of the nine frequently gives declarer extra options. So long as these aren't winning options, gratuitously playing the nine is often a good idea. All I had to do was follow Michael Rosenberg's rule: "Always play the nine unless you have to."