Sunday, September 18, 2022

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 16 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ A K 8 4   5   A Q 8 4 3  ♣ A J 6  

Partner opens with one spade in second seat, and RHO passes.

We are probably reaching at least a small slam, and I need to consider a grand slam. With normal breaks, I can take all the tricks opposite as little as,

♠ Q x x x x   A x x   K x x  ♣ x x, 

which isn't even worth an opening bid. 

What is the best way to investigate? Four hearts would be a splinter, showing heart shortness and at least four-card spade support. But it would be a poor choice with this hand. Splinters should surrender captaincy. They are for describing your hand, then bowing out and leaving further moves to partner. This is hand is obviously too good for that.

Since a grand slam may depend on our diamond fit, it might make sense to start with two diamonds. Again, that start is more attractive when I wish to surrender captaincy. There are some hands where you want to describe your own hand and leave the final decision to partner, and there are others where you wish to inquire about partner's hand and make the final decision yourself. This hand falls into the latter category, so the best approach is to start with Jacoby two notrump. This approach allows you to find out about partner's hand and keep control of the auction.

I bid two notrump, and partner bids three diamonds, showing a singleton or void in diamonds. That's bad news. Our grand slam prospects go down when we don't have a diamond fit. I continue with four clubs, showing the club ace and denying the heart ace. Partner bids four hearts, showing the heart ace.

Now what? Let's give partner queen fifth of spades and the heart ace. An opening bid rarely has fewer than three controls, so he probably has either the heart king or club king. That gives us four cashing tricks. If we bid a grand slam, they will probably lead a trump, holding us to eight trump tricks on a crossruff. That's only twelve tricks. Of course there are a variety of ways to take another. Partner might have a sixth spade. He might have both the heart and club kings. He might have the queen to go with whichever king he has. I'm not going to be able to find out if partner has the right hand. But if I bid Blackwood, the auction may time out to enable me to invite a grand. Over four notrump, he will bid five diamonds. Then I will bid five hearts. If he bids six clubs to show the spade queen and club king, I can invite a grand with a cue-bid. Partner should have a fair idea whether he has an extra trick or not.

I bid four notrump, and partner bids six diamonds, showing an odd number of keycards and a diamond void. If I bid six spades now, partner is not allowed to bid again. While I still can't count thirteen tricks, I'm hardly content to sign off. If I let partner know I'm interested in a grand, perhaps he can bid it. The only forward-going bid available to me is six hearts, so that's what I bid. Partner isn't interested. He bids six spades, and I pass. RHO leads the king of hearts.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A K 8 4
5
A Q 8 4 3
♣ A J 6






SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q J 10 9 2
A J 8 4 3
--
♣ K 10 4


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot


Pass 1 ♠
Pass 2 NT Pass 3
Pass 4 ♣ Pass 4
Pass 4 NT Pass 6
Pass 6 Pass 6 ♠
(All pass)


We have the four side tricks I anticipated. Since they didn't lead a trump, and since partner has excellent spots in the trump suit, we can probably crossruff nine tricks to bring us to thirteen.

Since I expect the field to be in this contract, I have to try to make seven even if I risk going down. The risk is small to begin with, and if I manage the play carefully, I can make it even smaller. One way I might go down is to have an opponent overruff a small trump and lead another trump. Now I score only seven trump tricks instead of nine. To avoid going down, I will then need to take three club tricks. Normally one cashes one's side winners before embarking on a crossruff. But in this case I'm not sure yet how many club tricks I need, so I must postpone cashing my club winners.

Hearts are more likely to be six-one than diamonds are to be seven-one, so I should start by ruffing a heart with dummy's four. I play a low heart from dummy. East play the deuce, and I take my ace. I play the heart three. West plays the six, I ruff with the four, and East follows with the seven. So far so good.

I could play ace and ruff a diamond now, continuing my plan of  testing whether two club tricks suffice. But the risk that someone has a stiff club is greater than the risk of a diamond overruff. Is there any way to guard against a stiff club? I may be able to survive a club ruff if I can cash an honor, then lead through the hand with the singleton, so that at least he isn't ruffing my winner. Since West might have led a singleton club, if anyone has a singleton club, it's more apt to be East, so I want to cash the club ace and lead toward the king. But if I cash the diamond ace and pitch a club, I won't be able to that, so I must play clubs first.

I cash the club ace--five--four--seven and lead the club jack. East plays the deuce, I rise with the king, and West follows with the eight. We're almost home.

I ruff another heart, and East pitches the five of diamonds. Everyone follows to the diamond ace and follows again when I ruff a diamond with the deuce. Now I can claim.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A K 8 4
5
A Q 8 4 3
♣ A J 6


WEST
Robot
♠ 7 3
K Q 10 9 6
J 10 2
♣ Q 8 7


EAST
Robot
♠ 6 5
7 2
K 9 7 6 5
♣ 9 5 3 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q J 10 9 2
A J 8 4 3
--
♣ K 10 4

Plus 1460 is worth 82%. The overtrick was important; 1430 would have been below average. Too bad my careful play wasn't necessary. It can be hard to put in the necessary effort to play a hand like this correctly. Seven looks cold once they don't lead a trump, and most of the time it will be, so you will probably get away with not working too hard. Still, if you make the extra effort, you will have some edge over those who don't--even if it's only a small edge.

One person did bid and make seven. He bid Blackwood directly over one spade, then bid seven over six diamonds. Given you get 82% for bidding six and not butchering the play, I don't think odds were in his favor with that decision--especially if West had led a trump and forced declarer to guess the club queen.

I don't care for the immediate Blackwood bid. If you are afraid LHO may pre-empt and deprive you of a chance to bid Blackwood, bidding it immediately may be a good idea. But that's not the case here. It probably can't hurt to bid two notrump first. You may find out something useful.

And there is another consideration that this hand illustrates. Even if you have an agreement that an immediate four notrump asks for keycards rather than just aces (an agreement not everyone has), an immediate four notrump should still allow you to select a different trump suit. After one spade--four notrump--six diamonds, it's not clear that six hearts is an invitation to seven spades. It might be construed as to play. An immediate two notrump bid, however, agrees spades unambiguously.

Sunday, September 11, 2022

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 9 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

If the September 9 Free Weekly Instant Tournament is still available, give it a try before reading on.

I pick up this hand in first seat:

♠ A 10 4 3   K J 6   Q 5  ♣ A Q 7 3  

I open with one notrump and buy it. West leads the six of spades.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q 8 5
10 5
A J 9 8 6
♣ 10 9 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 4 3
K J 6
Q 5
♣ A Q 7 3


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip



1 NT
(All pass)


The deuce is missing, so the lead could be from a five-card suit. It might also be from a doubleton. The robots like short-suit leads against notrump.

I have or can easily develop two spade tricks, one club, one heart, and two diamonds. Six tricks. I need one more to make this contract. I might find a second club trick if I guess which honor to finesse against. Or I might find several extra tricks in diamonds.

There is a problem with going after diamonds, however. If the spade lead was from shortness, I might have no dummy entry. I can try to keep communications by leading the queen and ducking if it's covered. Now if the ten drops, I have four diamond tricks. But if the queen isn't covered and holds, it's not clear how to proceed. Still, I see no better approach than riding the diamond queen, so I'll worry about that if it happens.

I play a low spade from dummy and East plays the jack. The fact that East played the jack increases the likelihood that the lead was from shortness. If West has led a doubleton spade, then East will always play the jack. But if West has led fourth best, then, by the Rule of Eleven, East has only one card higher than the six. So there is a good chance East doesn't have the jack to play. This is essentially a restricted choice argument. Of course it holds only because West is at least as likely to lead a short suit as not. Against an opponent who almost always chooses his longest suit, this argument would not be valid.

I win with the spade ace and lead the diamond queen. West plays the seven. Against a human, I might assume that either the seven is an honest count card or West has the king. It's dangerous for West to give false count without the king, since his partner needs to know how long to hold up. A robot, however, could play the seven from any holding. Sometimes they give accurate count when declarer attacks a suit; sometimes they don't.

I play low from dummy, and East takes the king. He would probably duck with king third, so I suspect he has either king doubleton or king-ten fourth. If I am right that West is short in spades, the former is more likely. It is tempting, therefore, to lead a diamond to the nine when I get in. Although that is a bit scary. I may wind up taking no diamond tricks at all if I try that.

East shifts to the four of hearts. I play low. West wins with the queen and cashes the ace. East follows with the nine, and I play the jack. West now shifts to the deuce of spades.

What? Why didn't West continue hearts? Could he have king fifth of spades after all and be attempting to establish his suit? Hardly. If that were his plan, he wouldn't have cashed the heart ace. So he must have a different reason for shifting to spades.

He would surely continue hearts if he had ace-queen fourth or fifth and the club king,  Even with ace-queen third of hearts and the club king, setting up heart tricks for his partner would look like a better idea than knocking out his partner's entry. The only way this play makes sense is if West is afraid the defense might lose the spade king if he doesn't cash it. Perhaps he has something like,

♠ 6 2   A Q x x   10 x x x  ♣ x x x.  

Since the robots assume I'm double-dummy, he would expect me to finesse against his diamond ten and run the suit. So if I have four club tricks, he will lose his partner's spade king if he doesn't cash it. One of dummy's spades will go on my heart king; the other, on my long club. While this construction might not be exactly right, I can be fairly certain the club king is onside--and probably the jack as well. Abandoning the heart suit makes no sense if West has a club trick.

There is no reason to play the spade queen from dummy. If I play low, East may take the king, giving me two spade tricks. I play low, and East plays the king. He, like his partner, must be afraid the defense will lose the spade king if he doesn't take it. This is further confirmation that the club king is onside. The defense, however, gives me more credit than I deserve in assuming I'm going to pick up the diamond suit. Despite their fears to the contrary, I can't see their cards. While I'm inclined to finesse West for the diamond ten, I haven't made up my mind yet.

East continues with the spade nine, and West discards the heart eight. I win with dummy's queen and lead the club ten. East covers with the jack, I play the queen, and West follows with the deuce.

Which major should I cash first? I already know how spades split. I might as well test the hearts. I cash the heart king, and West follows with the seven. I don't need dummy's fifth diamond. Nine doubleton of clubs in dummy might prove useful. It's hard to see how, but it doesn't hurt to hold onto it for one more round. I pitch a diamond, and East discards his last spade.

Wow! I wasn't expecting that. So West began with six hearts? I've changed my mind about finessing him for the diamond ten. East is 4-2 in the majors and probably 4-3 in the minors (on the assumption that he would have ducked the diamond with king third). This is the current position, with East presumably holding king-ten third of diamonds and king doubleton of clubs.


NORTH
Robot
♠ --
--
A J 9
♣ 9 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ 10
--
5
♣ A 7 3

I suspect I'm going to lose the last trick. Or maybe not. If East has  king-eight of clubs, the spade ten will squeeze him, and I'll take the rest.

I cash the spade ten. West discards the heart three, I discard a club from dummy, and East discards the club five. Oh, well. As expected, the diamond ten doesn't drop. I lose trick thirteen to West's club eight.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q 8 5
10 5
A J 9 8 6
♣ 10 9 6


WEST
Robot
♠ 6 2
A Q 8 7 3 2
7 2
♣ 8 4 2


EAST
Robot
♠ K J 9 7
9 4
K 10 4 3
♣ K J 5


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 4 3
K J 6
Q 5
♣ A Q 7 3

Plus 120 is worth 79%.

Most declarers took only seven tricks for a variety of reasons. One particularly interesting error: When West cashed his hearts and shifted to the spade deuce, one declarer went up with the queen, allowing East the take the king and continue the suit. Declarer can still manage an overtrick, but it requires accurate card-reading. Playing low from dummy gives East the opportunity to make things easy for you by taking his king.

If West had king fifth of spades, rising the the king would be a sensible tactical move, preventing West from establishing his suit. But, as we saw, that's impossible. Declarer missed the inference that West would not cash the heart ace if he had a spade suit to establish.

Sunday, September 4, 2022

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 2 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

This is board two from this week's Free Instant Tournament on BBO. If you haven't played it yet, give it a try before reading on.

♠ Q 4   A K Q 10 8 4 3   Q 8 4  ♣ Q  

RHO passes. I have seven heart tricks and a smattering of queens, which should contribute a little more than half a trick. One heart followed by three hearts shows seven and a half to eight tricks, so that is my plan.

You can reach the same conclusion via point count. You have 15 HCP, minus two for the two unprotected queens, plus one for the fifth heart, one for the sixth heart, and two for the seventh. That makes 17, and a three-heart rebid is 17 to 18 total points. Personally, I find counting tricks easier. Counting points and making all the necessary adjustments for good and bad honors is just a way to approximate counting tricks anyway. Why not simply count them?

I open with one heart, and partner responds with one spade. The spade queen is worth a little more now that partner has bid the suit. I can count this hand as a full eight tricks or, if counting points, as 18 points. In either case, my revaluation simply places me at the top of my range for a three-heart bid. I rebid three hearts, and partner bids three spades.

This is an awkward auction in standard methods. Partner usually has six spades, but he doesn't have to. I could easily have three spades, so if partner has five spades and a singleton heart, a three-notrump bid by him risks our missing a five-three spade fit. He must use his judgment and choose the rebid that he expects to work out most of the time. Similarly, while opener often raises with a doubleton honor, he doesn't have to. He must use his judgment as well, choosing among three notrump, four hearts, or four spades.

With this hand, I am not tempted to raise spades, since my hearts are playable opposite a void. The only choice is between four hearts and three notrump. Three notrump is often right when your hearts are solid. But with such soft side values, I’m concerned I will have tempo problems in three notrump. So I bid four hearts.

Partner passes, and West leads the five of clubs.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 8 7 6 5 2
--
A J 9 7
♣ A 6 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ Q 4
A K Q 10 8 4 3
Q 8 4
♣ Q


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip


Pass 1
Pass 1 ♠ Pass 3
Pass 3 ♠ Pass 4
(All pass)


I have a spade loser, possibly one or more heart losers, and possibly one diamond loser. I may be able to pitch one diamond on a spade, avoiding a diamond loser if the king is onside. If the West doesn't manage a diamond shift in time, I may be able to pitch two diamonds and avoid a diamond finesse altogether.

Is there any reason to duck the club? Yes. If West has led from the club king, I could conceivably take all the tricks: two clubs, seven hearts, and four diamonds. That would take quite a bit of luck, however. There are many layouts where I have no useful pitch on the club ace, so the finesse gains nothing even when it works. Even if I thought West was a favorite to hold the club king, it’s not clear that it’s right to finesse. It surely isn’t right when the finesse is 50-50 at best.

I take the club ace, and East follows with the four. The three is still missing. 

I have two choices at this point. I can ruff a club, draw trump, and attack spades. Or I can immediately lead a spade to the queen. The latter offers two advantages: (1) If East has the ace, he may hop, either because he has no choice (i.e., it's singleton) or because he is afraid I have a stiff queen. (2) If West has the ace and East has the diamond king, West may win and try to cash a club instead of shifting to a diamond. If I ruff a club to my hand, he will know the club isn't cashing. Of course, he should know it isn't cashing anyway, since I would have ducked the opening lead with queen doubleton. But the robots are incapable of drawing such inferences.

The disadvantage of playing a spade immediately is that West may have ace fourth of spades and give his partner a ruff. But he doesn't know which of us has the stiff spade, so even if he does have ace fourth, he might not find the continuation. And if he does, it's possible East will be ruffing with a natural trump trick

I play a spade from dummy--jack--queen--ace. East plays the nine of clubs--deuce--king--heart three. I cash three hearts, pitching a card from each suit from dummy, and find hearts three-three. If spades break, I have the rest. If not--if East shows out when I lead a spade to the king--I will have to decide whether to play safe for five by playing on diamonds or to try for six by squeezing West down to a doubleton diamond king. If I play for the squeeze and the diamond king is offside, I will hold myself to four--or conceivably go down if East stiffs the diamond king.

But no need to worry about that yet. I play a spade--ten--king--three. I can now claim.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 8 7 6 5 2
--
A J 9 7
♣ A 6 2


WEST
Robot
♠ A 10
J 9 6
K 6 5 3 2
♣ 9 7 5


EAST
Robot
♠ J 9 3
7 5 2
10
♣ K J 10 8 4 3


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ Q 4
A K Q 10 8 4 3
Q 8 4
♣ Q

Plus 680 is worth 61%, thanks to a handful of players who chose to raise three spades to four

Nobody tried three notrump over three spades. Perhaps partner would have pulled it. If he doesn't, and if West chooses to lead a diamond, I can go plus 690--assuming I take care to unblock the nine at trick one. Actually, since West has the spade ace, I don't need to unblock, do I? I can win the diamond queen, cash seven hearts, and take a diamond finesse. Now the club ace squeezes West down to a stiff ace of spades, and I can toss him in to lead another diamond.

Sunday, August 28, 2022

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - August 26 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

If you have not yet played this week's Free Instant Tournament, do so--or at least play the first board--before reading on.

♠ 7 4 2   A J 10   A 10 5  ♣ K 8 4 3    

Partner bids one diamond in first seat. I bid two notrump, natural and invitational, and partner bids three hearts.

If partner is semi-balanced, say "5431," he should have spade shortness. Partner would not worry about club shortness, since clubs is usually my best suit when I respond with two notrump. Spade shortness, however, would be a concern. Of course, spade shortness is not a certainty; it is simply an inference. The more freakish partner's shape, the less valid this inference is.

With five controls, no spade wastage, and heart fillers, I have the best hand I could hold on this auction. If partner is interested in slam, I should have what he needs. But he isn't necessarily interested in slam. He could just be trying to avoid three notrump if we have a problem in the spade suit. While I should make as encouraging a noise as possible, I am not allowed to drive to slam without a forwarding-going move from partner.

What encouraging noise can I make? Three spades would show something in spades but not enough to bid three notrump. It is certainly not a slam move. Four clubs would suggest slam interest but should show the club ace. Four diamonds would show an inability to bid three notrump but carries no suggestion of slam interest. I might bid it simply to leave open the possibility of playing in four hearts if partner is six-five. 

Is four diamonds forcing? Technically not. I'm limited, so partner can do what he wants. As a practical matter, however, it's hard to see partner's passing four diamonds. Since it shows weakness in spades, our hands should fit well. It is unlikely that five diamonds will be a terrible spot.

Four hearts would suggest game in a four-three heart fit. So that leaves four spades or higher for slam suggestions. What should these bids mean?

Five diamonds should convey that my primary feature is good diamond support. It should definitely not show a bad hand on the principal of fast arrival. Five diamonds can't show a bad hand unless four diamonds shows a good hand. And, as we have seen, four diamonds isn't available to show a good hand. You must sometimes bid it for no reason other than to give partner a chance to rebid a five-card heart suit. As a general rule, fast arrival should not apply in auctions where there is still uncertainty about strain.

Five clubs and four notrump are available as slam tries, and could be assigned very specific meanings by partnership agreement. Without an agreement, however, it is not clear what those specific meanings should be, so it is best to avoid either bid without prior disucssion.

Four spades, though, is unambiguously a slam try in diamonds. You could think of this as a Bluhmer (bidding partner's short suit to show slam interest), except that partner has only implied spade shortness; he has not promised it. So it is not technically a Bluhmer.

Four spades is the right bid. Unfortunately, my robot partner will not understand it, so there is little point in choosing it. According to the tool tips, neither four clubs nor four spades shows diamond support. The only way to show support is to bid four diamonds or five diamonds. Four diamonds seems like the better choice, since it gives partner room to cue-bid four spades or five clubs. Over either bid, I will bid a slam.

I bid four diamonds, and partner raises to five. I'm not happy about passing this, but it would be a violation of captaincy to bid again. I am a limited hand. Partner could have invited me to bid slam and chose not to. He might have been stretching, in which case my good values may mean that five diamonds is a sound contract rather than the touch-and-go contract it might have been. 

I pass, and RHO leads the spade ace.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ 7 4 2
A J 10
A 10 5
♣ K 8 4 3






SOUTH
Robot
♠ 10
K Q 8 5
K Q J 9 8 7 3 2
♣ --


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot



1
Pass 2 NT Pass 3
Pass 4 Pass 5
(All pass)


Making six, for a 43% board. 

Can we get to slam intelligently? I could break discipline and simply bid it. That would work this time, but there is no reason partner's eighth diamond couldn't a black loser. I believe partner should make a move over four diamonds. Five clubs, cue-bidding his void, would be dangerous. I have no reason to suspect he is void in clubs, so five clubs will make me think the club king is a useful card. Four spades seems like the right move. Surely I will bid slam with both red aces, and I doubt I would bid slam with anything else. With one red ace and the club ace, I would cooperate with five clubs, then give up when partner bids five diamonds.

Of course, four spades by me over three hearts is the easiest way to get there. A reliable partner should understand this as a general slam move even without prior discussion. If he also understands the bid to deny the club ace, as I believe he should, he has an easy six diamond bid. It's hard to see what would get me so excited other than the two red aces.

The full deal:


NORTH
Phillip
♠ 7 4 2
A J 10
A 10 5
♣ K 8 4 3


WEST
Robot
♠ A Q J 5
9 7 4 3 2
6 4
♣ J 9


EAST
Robot
♠ K 9 8 6 3
6
--
♣ A Q 10 7 6 5 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ 10
K Q 8 5
K Q J 9 8 7 3 2
♣ --

Some pairs did reach six diamonds, but they did so by overbidding on the first round. They bid three notrump over one diamond, and South leapt to six diamonds. I'm not impressed.


Sunday, August 21, 2022

Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 12

Board 12
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K Q 4   A K Q   9 6 5 3 2  ♣ J  

Partner opens with three clubs in second seat and RHO passes. If partner has a stiff diamond and a one-loser club suit, we could make five clubs. If I needed one bit of luck, I might try five clubs. But two bits of luck is too much to hope for.

I pass, as does LHO. West leads the diamond king.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A K Q 4
A K Q
9 6 5 3 2
♣ J






SOUTH
Robot
♠ 6 5 3
--
8 7 4
♣ A K 6 5 4 3 2


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot


Pass 3 ♣
(All pass)


We have three diamond losers and at least one club loser. I'm happy I didn't get too aggressive with this hand.

I play a low diamond from dummy, and East discards the spade deuce. I might actually go down in this contract. If East can pitch three spades and get a spade ruff, I'll need the remaining trumps to be two-two.

West continues with the ace of diamonds. That's an error. He should lead the queen to tell his partner he will be making two more discards. He should lead the ace only if he doesn't have the queen or if I started with a singleton. In the latter case, the queen, suggesting East will be making two more discards, would be misleading.

On this trick, East pitches the spade nine; on the next, the spade jack. West doesn't get the hint. He shifts to the six of hearts. I win and cash the ace and king of clubs. They split. Making three.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A K Q 4
A K Q
9 6 5 3 2
♣ J


WEST
Robot
♠ 10 8 7
10 9 6
A K Q J 10
♣ 10 9


EAST
Robot
♠ J 9 2
J 8 7 5 4 3 2
--
♣ Q 8 7


SOUTH
Robot
♠ 6 5 3
--
8 7 4
♣ A K 6 5 4 3 2

East had a natural club trick, so West's failure to give him a spade ruff didn't cost.

Plus 110 is worth 77%. Some brave souls bid three notrump over three clubs, a bid I didn't even consider. They caught partner with a magic hand: Two cashing tricks, three spades (so the a three-three spade trick gives you a ninth trick), and three diamonds (so East has no diamond to lead).

Despite this good fortune, of the 49 declarers who played 3NT, 36 managed to go down. East always led the club seven. Some declarers continued to display their bravery by ducking the club to their jack. Unfortunately, while the finesse worked, they now had only one club trick instead of two. I'm not sure what to call this kind of finesse. A finesse that gains nothing if it works and loses if it doesn't is commonly called a practice finesse. But what do you call a finesse that must lose tricks whether it works or not? Perhaps a Pyrrhic finesse?

Another declarer overcame the trick one hurdle by rising with the club ace. But he also failed to notice that dummy was entryless. He cashed the club king and played a third club to establish the suit. Since East was void in diamonds, he should have survived this. But he pitched the four of spades on the third round of clubs, so he still found himself a trick short.

My final score was 75%. I finished 46th out of 16,499.

Next week I'm going to go back to playing the Weekly Free Instant Tournament, but I'm going to do it a little differently. I'll starting by posting board number one from the August 26th tournament. The following week, I'll post board number two from the September 2nd tournament, and so on for the next eight weeks. That way, if you haven't played the board yet, you will still have an opportunity to play it before you read the post. Of course, since each board will be from a different tournament, there will be no meaningful overall score at the end.

Sunday, August 14, 2022

Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 11

Board 11
Neither vulnerable

♠ 10 4   9 8 4 3   A K Q J 10  ♣ Q J  

I open in first seat with one diamond. LHO bids one heart, and partner responds with one spade. RHO bids three-diamonds, showing four hearts and seven to nine support points. Since diamonds is the prime feature of my hand, I double. LHO and partner pass. East unsportingly runs to three hearts.

I've said all I have to say. I pass, LHO passes, and partner bids four clubs. That's strange. If partner wanted to bid clubs. why didn't he do so on the previous round? The opponents obviously were not going to play in three diamonds doubled. By passing, he took the risk that, at his next turn, the auction would be too high for him to show his club suit.

I know it's pointless to try to figure out what a robot is up to on a complicated auction. But let's imagine that we are playing with a reliable partner. What might we conclude from the fact that partner passed on the previous round?

Normally, one strives to introduce suits as early as possible because it might be right to compete if we find a fit. Since partner risked not finding a club fit, he presumably had no interest in competing even if we found one. In other words, if the opponents had bid four hearts, he was happy to defend. Quite possibly, he was intending to double.

This conclusion is contraindicated by my holding four hearts. But the robots have been known to overcall in chunky four-card suits. So it's possible partner is, say, 5-2-1-5 with top cards and fancied his prospects on defense.

Again, this is all moot playing with robots. And it's probably moot playing with a reliable partner as well, since, whatever partner's auction suggests, the only action that makes sense with this particular hand is to correct to four spades.

I bid four spades. Everyone passes, and RHO leads the heart ace.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ 10 4
9 8 4 3
A K Q J 10
♣ Q J






SOUTH
Robot
♠ A Q J 6 5 3 2
--
7
♣ K 6 5 3 2


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot

1 1 1 ♠
3 Double Pass Pass
3 Pass Pass 4 ♣
Pass 4 ♠ (All pass)

As one might expect, partner does not have the hand he should for this auction. It's not entirely clear what he should have done. Perhaps pulling the double to four spades is the practical call. We might have a club slam if I have the right cards, but it will be hard to diagnose.

I'm off the club ace and possibly the spade king. I also have the fourth and fifth round of clubs to worry about, but I can probably manage to pitch them on diamonds. I have two entries to dummy: one in clubs, and one in diamonds. I need to use one to take the trump finesse and the other to take my discards. Does it matter which one I use first?

If I play a club now, the opponents might take the ace and play another. Now if the trump finesse loses, I might suffer a club ruff. So I need to use the diamond entry first.

I play a diamond to dummy. West plays the six; East, the nine. It appears one of the opponents is giving false count.

I lead the spade ten--seven--three--nine. I repeat the spade finesse and drive the club ace. Making six.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ 10 4
9 8 4 3
A K Q J 10
♣ Q J


WEST
Robot
♠ 9
A 10 5 2
8 6 5 4
♣ A 9 7 4


EAST
Robot
♠ K 8 7
K Q J 7 6
9 3 2
♣ 10 8


SOUTH
Robot
♠ A Q J 6 5 3 2
--
7
♣ K 6 5 3 2

Plus 480 is worth 69%. I'm averaging 75% with one board to go.

Sunday, August 7, 2022

Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 10

Board 10
Both vulnerable

♠ K 5 3   J 8 3   A K 5  ♣ A 9 5 4  

I open with one notrump in second seat. Partner bids four hearts, a transfer to spades. I bid four spades and buy it. West leads the ace of hearts.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A J 9 8 6 2
K 10 5
Q J
♣ Q 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K 5 3
J 8 3
A K 5
♣ A 9 5 4


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip


Pass 1 NT
Pass 4 Pass 4 ♠
(All pass)


It's unlikely West would lead the heart ace holding ace-queen. But I don't know whether he's leading from shortness, trying for his own ruff, or from length, hoping to give his partner one. I play the five. East encourages with the nine and I discourage with the three. West shifts to the seven of diamonds. Dummy's queen wins, as East plays the diamond nine.

The fact that West shifted suggests he was not leading a heart from length. If he were, he would have no reason to believe he had not lucked out and caught his partner with a singleton. So I suspect he has a stiff ace or perhaps ace doubleton and decided, since dummy has the spade ace, that there was no point in going after a ruff.

Does the fact that I suspect West has short hearts mean I should play him for trump length and finesse him for the queen? No. To do so would be falling for the Monty Hall Trap. If West chose to lead a heart because he was short, then that knowledge is not as significant as if I had discovered his heart shortness on my own.

Another way to look at it: If West thought leading a short suit was a good idea, he would lead whichever suit he was short in. The fact that that suit happens to be hearts (like the fact that Monty opens specifically door number two) is immaterial. Of course, he might not have a short suit at all, so we can't ignore the information altogether. But the question to ask is not "How should I play spades given West is short in hearts?" Rather it is "How should I play spades given West has some short side suit?"

If you want to calculate that, go ahead. I'm not going to, however, because there are other factors to consider. For one, I'm not even sure West has short hearts. That's merely an inference. So if I were to calculate the odds West had queen of third of spades, I would then have to discount those odds according my confidence in the inference.

Further, queen third of spades might make a short suit lead less attractive to West. If he had some chance of scoring a trump trick without a ruff, another lead might look more appealing.

Taking all these factors into consideration, I see no reason not to cash the ace and king of spades. And I might as well start with the ace to ensure I don't lose two tricks if the suit is four-zero. I cash the ace--four--three--ten. I lead the spade jack and East plays the seven. I see no reason to change my mind. I go up with the king, and West follows with the queen.

If the heart queen and club king are in the same hand, I have the rest. If I had no clue where the heart queen was, I could play it as a criss-cross squeeze. I could I come down to,


NORTH
Robot
♠ --
K
--
♣ Q 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
J 8
--
♣ A

Now I have to guess whether the club king or the heart queen is singleton. But since I'm pretty sure the heart queen in on my right, I can avoid a guess by coming down to,


NORTH
Robot
♠ 2
--
--
♣ Q 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
J
--
♣ A 9

Now I cash the last trump. If East doesn't pitch the heart queen, I pitch my heart jack and hope he had to stiff the club king. That's the line I'll take, although I'll postpone cashing the heart king as long as possible. I might as well leave the crisscross option open in case I change my mind.

I cash the ace and king of diamonds, pitching a heart from dummy. West plays four--ten; East plays eight--three. I play a spade to dummy. West pitches the club eight; East, the club deuce. The opponents are probably giving count with these club pitches. So West has four clubs and East has three.

On the next spade, East pitches the heart six. I pitch the club four; West, the club three. If anyone has two diamonds left, he probably would have pitched one by now. So the diamonds were probably four-four. That makes East 2-4-4-3 and West 2-3-4-4. I'm down to this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 6 2
K
--
♣ Q 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
J 8
--
♣ A 9 5

If my construction is correct, each opponent is down to two hearts, one diamond, and two clubs. 

I can cash one more spade before cashing the heart king. On this spade, I pitch a club. Both opponents pitch hearts. East, the four; West, the seven. I cash the heart king. East drops the queen and I claim.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A J 9 8 6 2
K 10 5
Q J
♣ Q 6


WEST
Robot
♠ Q 10
A 7 2
10 7 6 4
♣ J 8 7 3


EAST
Robot
♠ 7 4
Q 9 6 4
9 8 3 2
♣ K 10 2


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K 5 3
J 8 3
A K 5
♣ A 9 5 4

This is worth 100%. That's ridiculous. I know this field doesn't do squeezes. But this one plays itself. All you have to do is cash your tricks. Well, maybe that's not exactly true. You do have to cash all your diamonds before finishing the trumps. I suspect that's where most declarers went wrong. 

Incidentally, note that West led the heart ace from neither shortness nor length. So I was right not to place too much confidence in my inference.