Sunday, March 17, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither side vulnerable

♠ --   A K Q 8   A J 10 8 7 3  ♣ A J 6  

The auction begins one spade--pass--two spades to me.

I have two options. I can double, intending to follow with some number of diamonds if partner can't bid hearts. Or I can bid three diamonds, intending to double on the next round. As a general rule, you should time your auctions so that they end with double. That way, you aren't committed to offense. If you bid then double, partner can pass if the hand is a misfit. If you double then bid, partner doesn't have the option of defending. 

With this hand, however, there are problems with the bid-then-double approach. For one thing, if I bid three diamonds, I can't be sure of getting another chance to act. I may buy it in three diamonds cold for four hearts. For another, even if I do get a chance to double on the next round, we may still miss a heart fit. Partner may be worried I have only three hearts and may elect to support diamonds rather than bid a weak four-card heart suit.

I do have quite a good hand for offense: four losers and a good suit, so I'm not too worried about taking away partner's option to defend. I'll go for the double-then-bid approach.

I double, LHO passes, partner bids three clubs, and RHO bids three spades. I bid four diamonds as planned. To my surprise, LHO doubles. Everyone passes. and LHO leads the ten of hearts.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q J 8 4
9 4
6 5 2
♣ 10 9 3 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
A K Q 8
A J 10 8 7 3
♣ A J 6


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
1 ♠ Pass 2 ♠ Double
Pass 3 ♣ 3 ♠ 4
Double (All pass)

LHO probably has all the outstanding diamonds for his double. And RHO has four spades for his three-spade bid. So LHO is either 5-2-4-2 or 5-1-4-3. He probably would have led a spade from ace-king, so I'll assume East has a spade honor. With his diamond void, East doesn't need any other high cards. So West could have one or both club honors.

With the bad trump break, I have five losers, not four: three diamonds and two clubs. So I can't see making this. But if I can get West to break clubs for me, I'll avoid one of those losers and get out for down one.

I unblock the nine of hearts from dummy. East plays the deuce, and I win with the queen.

I need to ruff a heart in dummy, so I cash the heart ace. If West ruffs, I don't mind. It's with a natural trump trick. He doesn't ruff. He follows with the heart seven; East, with the five. So West is 5-2-4-2.

Now a low heart. West declines to ruff in front of dummy. He pitches the spade deuce instead. I ruff in dummy and lead a diamond. East shows out as expected, pitching the spade seven. I play the ten, losing the the queen. Here is the presumed position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q J 8 4
--
6
♣ 10 9 3 2


WEST
Robot
♠ H x x x
--
K 9 4
♣ ? ?


EAST
Robot
♠ H x x
x x
--
♣ ? ? ? ?


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
 K
A J 8 7 3
♣ A J 6

West can't afford to play a diamond or a club. So he perforce switches to a small spade, the three. I play the jack from dummy. East covers with the king, and I ruff. Now the seven of diamonds endplays West again. He wins with the nine as East discards the eight of clubs. We've reached this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q 8 4
--
 --
♣ 10 9 3 2


WEST
Robot
♠ A x x
--
K 4
♣ ? ?


EAST
Robot
♠  x x
x x
--
♣ ? ? ?


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
 K
A J 8
♣ A J 6

Again, West can't afford a trump or a club, so he exits with the ace of spades. I ruff. Now ace and jack of diamonds endplays him a third time:


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q 8
--
 --
♣ 10 9


WEST
Robot
♠ x x
--
--
♣ ? ?


EAST
Robot
♠  x
--
--
♣ ? ? ?


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
 K
--
♣ A J 6

West must lead either a club, giving me a club trick, or a spade, giving me dummy's spade queen. He chooses a spade. I pitch one of my club losers on the spade queen and finish down one.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q J 8 4
9 4
6 5 2
♣ 10 9 3 2


WEST
Robot
♠ A 9 5 3 2
10 7
K Q 9 4
♣ K 7


EAST
Robot
♠ K 10 7 6
J 6 5 3 2
--
♣ Q 8 5 4


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
A K Q 8
A J 10 8 7 3
♣ A J 6

Most players in four diamonds doubled went down two. Some got higher. Minus 100 is worth 68%.

The reason this result isn't better is that some doubled two spades, then doubled again over three spades and played it there. That worked out fine this time, but it strikes me as an awfully dangerous way to live. We can argue about whether it's right to bid diamonds now or later, but not bidding them at all makes no sense to me. How can you expect partner to make an intelligent play-or-defend decision when you have good six-card suit you haven't told him about?

Be sure to play this week's Free Weekly Instant Tournament by Thursday. We can start comparing results next week.

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A Q 4   9 6 3   10 8 6 3  ♣ A Q 5  

I open with one diamond in first seat. Partner bids one heart and I rebid one notrump. Partner raises to two. Even though I have only 12 HCP, I do have three honor tricks, which is a maximum by some standards. Still, 4-3-3-3 is a minus, and I have no fitting card in partner's suit. So I suppose I should decline the invitation. I pass, and LHO leads the spade eight.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 9 5 3
K Q J 2
A 5
♣ J 10 9 8






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q 4
9 6 3
10 8 6 3
♣ A Q 5


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
1
Pass 1 Pass 1 NT
Pass 2 NT (All pass)

I can take three clubs, two spades, two hearts, and a diamond. Eight tricks unless the opponents can take six first. The spade eight looks like top of a doubleton. So I must duck the first spade to maximize the chance that I can keep the opponents from establishing and running the suit. The diamond suit does represent a danger. But that's the suit I opened, so it may be hard for the opponents to attack that suit.

I play low from dummy, East plays the king, and I duck. East continues with the six of spades. I win with the queen (the card West knows I hold) and West drops the jack. The jack? Apparently West led low from jack-ten-eight rather than top of his sequence.

I play the six of hearts, concealing the three, to dummy's king. West plays the four; East, the seven. If the club king is onside, I've made this. I can take three clubs and establish another heart for my eighth trick. What if the club king is offside?

Let's say I ride the jack of clubs and it loses to the king. West switches to a diamond. I duck one round and win the second round. Since clubs are blocked, I can cash only two club tricks, reaching this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 9
 Q J 2
 --
♣ 8






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A
9 3
10 8
♣ --

I need three of the last five tricks. I lead a heart. The opponents win the heart ace, cash whatever diamonds they can, and I have the rest. If they can take only one more diamond trick, I've made my contract. If they can take two, I'm down one. If they can take three, I'm down two.

If I don't block the clubs, I can cash three club tricks, ensuring I can't go down more than one. Maybe floating the jack of clubs is a bad idea.

What happens if I lead a club to the queen? If the king is onside, it makes no difference. I can repeat the finesse later. If the queen loses to the king, I'm in good shape. The clubs are no longer blocked. I either make or go down one depending on what happens in diamonds. 

The problem comes if the king is offside and they duck. If I assume the king is onside, then I might find myself in some precarious predicament later on. But I don't think my robot opponent is up to ducking. If the club queen holds, I think I can safely assume East has the king. 

I wouldn't do this against opponents I trust. But I decide to play a club to the queen. East plays the deuce; West, the king. See? I told you he wouldn't duck.

West shifts to the four of diamonds. I duck in dummy. East takes the king, and I play the six to disguise whether West's four is low or high. East continues with the nine of diamonds--three--seven--ace. It appears West had QJ74 and East had K92.

If so I'm down. The defense has taken three tricks and can take three more when they get in. Maybe West started with five diamonds, QJ742, and East has the heart ace. That seems unlikely. Why would the defense set up the suit in the hand that has no entry? East probably has the long spade. If he had the heart ace and only one more diamond, he would have shifted back to spades after winning the diamond king.

Still, it doesn't hurt to try. If that's the layout, I don't need to knock out the heart ace early. I can cash all my tricks, reaching this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ --
 Q J 2
--
♣ --






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
9
10 8
♣ --

I need one more trick. If East has the heart ace and is out of diamonds, I can play a heart to the queen. East can win and cash a long spade, but he will have to concede a heart trick to dummy at the end.

I play a club to the ace and a club back to dummy. Both opponents follow. I cash the club ten, and East pitches the spade seven. That confirms my suspicion that the heart ace is on my left. East wouldn't be pitching his spade winner if he held the heart ace.

The ten-eight of diamonds may prove useful if I've misread the position. But my hearts are worthless. So I pitch the three of hearts. West pitches the heart eight.

I play a spade to my ace, reaching the above position. Both opponents follow. I exit with a heart. To my surprise, it's East, not West, who wins the trick. East then cashes the diamond jack and concedes a heart to dummy. Making two.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 9 5 3
K Q J 2
A 5
♣ J 10 9 8


WEST
Robot
♠ J 10 8
10 8 4
Q 7 4 2
♣ K 7 6


EAST
Robot
♠ K 7 6 2
A 7 5
K J 9
♣ 4 3 2


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q 4
9 6 3
10 8 6 3
♣ A Q 5

Plus 120 is worth 75%. The median result was passing it out. I briefly considered accepting partner's game try, and some thought this hand wasn't worth opening?

West played four, then seven from Q742 and the diamonds were blocked all along. It turns out I gave the defense a chance to beat me. Here was the position when I cashed the last club:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 9
 Q J 2
--
♣ 10


WEST
Robot
♠ 10
10 8
Q 2
♣ --


EAST
Robot
♠ 7 2
A 5
 J 
♣ --


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A
9 3
10 8
♣ --

If I knock out the heart ace at this point, I take eight tricks thanks to the diamond blockage. When, instead, I cashed the last club, all East had to do to beat me was to pitch a loser instead of a winner. If he pitches a heart, my hand is squeezed. To hold my diamond stopper, I have to let go of a heart and now have no way to cash the heart once I establish it.

I didn't visualize the diamond blockage. I was mesmerized by the defense's carding and assumed West had the queen-jack or queen-jack-deuce of diamonds left. I should have gotten the end position right. I lucked out that East defended poorly.

This deal is a good example of how humans and robots make different kinds of mistakes. My mistake was making an assumption about the layout and forgetting that my assumption might be wrong. That's a very human mistake and a difficult one to avoid.

Most of what we think about when we play a deal is reconstructing the opponents' hands from clues. Sometimes our deductions are virtually certain; sometimes they are more speculative. It's easy to forget which ones are speculative and back off those assumptions when necessary. But robots don't have that problem. They don't play detective in the first place. So a robot would not have a blind spot in the above position and would easily find the heart play.

East's mistake was assuming I knew what I was doing. That's a very robot mistake. He could see that, if I played correctly, it made no difference whether he pitched a spade or a heart, so he chose one at random. Giving your opponent a losing option when he has a choice is something a robot doesn't even "think" about. A human, on the other hand, would see that the long spade might come in handy but the low heart could not and would be unlikely to make this mistake. 

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q 9 2   8 7 2   A K J 9  ♣ K 5 4  

RHO passes. I open with one diamond. Partner responds one spade, and I rebid one notrump. LHO chimes in with two clubs.

The tooltip confirms what I suspect: LHO has no idea what this auction means. He thinks it shows five or more clubs and ten or more HCP. He probably has a hand where he wanted to overcall on the previous round but he considered his hand flawed in some way. Possibly the suit quality is below standard.

This kind of bidding makes no sense at all. If you're going to make an overcall you consider unsound, why let the opponents exchange information first? Not only is it more dangerous to bid now than it was on the first round, it is also less productive. An immediate two club overcall would have taken the one level away from us. Passing allowed responder to get his suit into the auction cheaply and allowed me to limit my hand with a one-notrump rebid.

That's not to say this auction doesn't exist. But it should show at least a sound opening bid with primary diamonds and secondary clubs. Clubs might even be a four-card suit. Just because your opponent opened with one diamond doesn't mean diamonds isn't your side's best strain. And it can be hard to get there without the agreement that unsolicited belated actions show primary length in opener's suit. It is certainly a more useful agreement than playing that such actions announce to the opponents that you are making a questionable call.

Over two clubs, partner bids two spades and buys it. RHO leads the club queen.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 9 2
8 7 2
A K J 9
♣ K 5 4






SOUTH
Robot
♠ K J 10 7 4
10 4 3
Q 10 7 5
♣ A


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot
Pass 1 Pass 1 ♠
Pass 1 NT 2 ♣ 2 ♠
(All pass)

Note that an immediate two club overcall would have worked much better. Partner would bid two spades, which I would raise to three. With his diamond fit, partner would probably decide to bid on and we would reach a hopeless game.

East plays the club three at trick one, and I win with the ace. I could play a diamond to dummy and take a heart pitch on the the club king. But the opening lead suggests East has seven clubs, and West's silence suggests East has at least two hearts as well. So the chance East has a singleton diamond is quite high. If he does, breaking diamonds may enable him to get two diamond ruffs when the defense takes the spade ace. I'll be trading one heart loser for two diamonds losers, which is not a good trade. On a bad day, East might even be void in diamonds. Then I could go down trying to take my pitch.

What if I play a spade instead? If West has the ace and ducks, I'm in dummy to take my pitch. Will he duck? Almost surely. He's not looking at my hand and doesn't know my problem. From his point of view, I might be intending to insert the spade nine, losing to East's jack. Or hopping might drop his partner's stiff king.

And even if the spade ace is offside, a spade lead doesn't necessarily cost. East may ask himself why I seemed uninterested in taking a pitch on the club king. He might conclude that his partner is the one with the singleton and might try to give West a club ruff rather than cash hearts. 

Since a spade will surely work if West has the spade ace and might work even if he doesn't, it looks like a better play than opening myself up to diamond ruffs.

I play a spade--eight--nine--ace. Will East play a club now? No. He cashes the heart king, then plays the queen. West overtakes with the ace to cash to jack. East doesn't let him cash it, however. He makes the good play of ruffing his partner's trick to lead a club. I ruff with the ten and claim. Making three.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 9 2
8 7 2
A K J 9
♣ K 5 4


WEST
Robot
♠ 8 6 3
A J 9 6 5
8 6 4
♣ Q 2


EAST
Robot
♠ A 5
K Q
3 2
♣ J 10 9 8 7 6 3


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K J 10 7 4
10 4 3
Q 10 7 5
♣ A

Plus 140 is worth 46%. My first below average board in this set. East has a doubleton diamond, so I could have made four by crossing with a diamond to take my pitch, as some did. I stand by my choice, however. I think a spade at trick two is the better play, even though it was wrong this time.

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A 9 4   K 9 2   Q 8  ♣ A Q 8 6 3  

Partner passes. RHO opens with one notrump, 15 to 17 HCP. Normally I would not double with only 15 HCP. But this is a "best-hand" tournament, so RHO is limited to 15 HCP as well. Should I double under these conditions? 

If my club suit were better, say AQ109x, I might double. But with such weak spots, I'm hesitant. If we can't run clubs, it may be hard to come to seven tricks. There is also the factor that my robot partner is no help on defense. Even if we can beat this, I'll have to figure out how all by myself. And even if I figure out how, I may have trouble getting partner to cooperate. Passing seems the wiser course. I pass, ending the auction, and lead the six of clubs.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 8 7
J 7 5
10 6 3
♣ K J 9 2


WEST
Phillip
♠ A 9 4
K 9 2
Q 8
♣ A Q 8 6 3






West North East South
Phillip Robot Robot Robot
Pass 1 NT
(All pass)

Dummy has 5 HCP. Declarer is known to have 15. So partner must have exactly 5.

Declarer plays the jack of clubs from dummy--seven--four. Declarer would have ducked with the ten, so partner obviously began with ten doubleton. That makes it difficult to run the club suit. When I continue clubs, declarer can insert the nine, knowing that if this loses to partner's stiff ten, he will be unable to continue the suit. 

Declarer plays a heart from dummy. Partner plays the three; declarer, the queen. I have nothing urgent to do, so I see no reason to win this trick. Winning makes things easy for declarer. It not only establishes his suit, it also gives him a dummy entry with the heart jack. Ducking may be especially effective if declarer has the heart ten. He may then waste an entry repeating the finesse. There is, in fact, an excellent chance declarer does have the heart ten. Without it, he might just as well start hearts from his hand. So he might have found something better to do while in dummy. I play the heart deuce.

Declarer leads the deuce of diamonds from his hand. It could be right to duck. If declarer has ace-jack, hopping lets him hook partner for the king. If I duck, he may play partner for king-queen and lose a later finesse to my stiff queen. But it's not clear declarer has the flexibility to do that. After partner wins the king, I'm two to one to have the queen by restricted choice. Given his communication problems, declarer may elect not to take a finesse that's apt to fail. He might end up dropping my queen for lack of viable options. I may have a better chance at taking two diamond tricks if I hop and hope declarer uses his dummy entry to repeat the heart finesse.

Further, there is no guarantee declarer has ace-jack of diamonds. He might have king-jack and just be trying to set up tricks as best he can. If I duck and dummy's ten forces partner's ace, I'll certainly wish I had hopped.

I hop up with queen. Partner plays the seven. Can I place partner's high cards now? I assume he has the ace or king of diamonds. If he has the ace, he must hold exactly one jack to come to 5 HCP. If he has the king, he must hold either both missing jacks or the spade queen.

I might as well continue clubs. If I lead the club three, revealing my five-card suit, declarer will surely play the nine, as I noted previously. Perhaps if I lead the club eight, retaining the possibility that I began I with four clubs, declarer will play the king. If he plays the nine, he risks never taking a second club trick.

I lead the club eight. Declarer does rise with the king, and partner follows with the ten as expected. Declarer now, as I hoped, repeats the heart finesse. Five of hearts--eight--ten--king.

Can I deduce declarer's heart length? With AQ10 tight, he would have led the heart jack at trick two, so he must have four or five. Leading low twice make sense with AQ10x, since it guards against a doubleton king onside. If the finesse works, he can afford the jack on the first round only if the suit is three-three. What about AQ10xx? Low the first time, guarding against a stiff king onside, is the right play in isolation. But a stiff king is unlikely, and, given declarer's shortage of dummy entries, catering to it might be a luxury he can't afford. I suspect he would have led the jack with five hearts, enabling him to repeat the finesse. So I'll tentatively assume he has four.

Here is the current position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 8 7
J
10 6
♣ 9 2


WEST
Phillip
♠ A 9 4
 9
 8
♣ A Q 3

Three clubs, a diamond, a heart, and the spade ace bring us up to six tricks. If partner has the diamond ace, declarer is down. So I'll assume partner has the king. When I run clubs, declarer must come down to five cards. What will they be?

If partner has the spade queen, declarer will come down to

♠ K J   A x   A  ♣ --  

I'll exit with a heart. Declarer will win in dummy and must guess the spades to make his contract. He should guess right. If partner had the spade ace, I would exit with a diamond, setting up a diamond trick for partner while he still had an entry.

If partner has both jacks, declarer will come down to

♠ K Q   A x   A  ♣ --  

Now we have no defense. So it appears I must hope partner has the diamond ace or that he has the diamond king and spade queen and declarer misplays.

I cash the ace of clubs. Partner discards the heart six, confirming my assumption that declarer has four hearts. Declarer pitches the spade deuce.

On the club queen, partner discards the spade six; declarer, the diamond five. Since this is partner's first spade, it is probably count, given the robots' proclivities. That means partner has four spades, giving declarer 3-4-4-2. Declarer is now down to two spades, two hearts, and ace-jack or king-jack of diamonds.

On the last club, partner discards the spade three; declarer, the king of diamonds. So declarer had king-jack of diamonds, which leaves him with king-queen of spades. This must be the position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 8
J
10 6
♣ --


WEST
Phillip
♠ A 9 4
 9
 8
♣ --


EAST
Robot
♠ J x
--
A x x
♣ --


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K Q
A x
 J 
♣ --

Dummy's diamond ten saved declarer from being squeezed. There is no way to take anything other than our two aces. I exit with a heart to dummy's jack. Declarer leads a spade to the king and my ace. I play a diamond to partner's ace. Down one.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 8 7
J 7 5
10 6 3
♣ K J 9 2


WEST
Phillip
♠ A 9 4
K 9 2
Q 8
♣ A Q 8 6 3


EAST
Robot
♠ J 6 5 3
8 6 3
A 9 7 4
♣ 10 7


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K Q 2
A Q 10 4
K J 5 2
♣ 5 4

Plus 50 is worth 86%. Continuing with the eight of clubs rather than the three proved to be critical. Everyone who continued with the three saw declarer insert the nine. The defense is much better placed if declarer rises with the club king, and he has no reason to do that if he knows you began with five clubs. 

Although it turned out not to matter, I might have defended a little better. Let's consider again the case where partner has the diamond king and the spade queen. As I said earlier, if I run clubs, declarer comes down to:

♠ K J   A x   A  ♣ --  

When I exit with a heart, he wins in dummy and must the guess the spades, which he should "guess" correctly.

But what if the jack of hearts wasn't in dummy? If my heart exit tosses declarer back in his hand, he's down. So I would like declarer to lead the heart jack from dummy when he takes the second finesse. Let's back up to that point. Here is the imagined position, with the lead in dummy:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 8 7
J 7
10 6
♣ 9 2


WEST
Phillip
♠ A 9 4
K 9
 8
♣ A Q 3


EAST
Robot
♠ Q 6 5 3
8 6
 K 9 4
♣ --


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K J 2
A 10 4
 A J 5
♣ --

As the play went, a low heart now, guarding against king doubleton onside, is the correct play. And declarer should then make his contract. But what if  I had played the nine rather than the deuce when I ducked? Now it's reasonable for declarer to lead the jack for the second finesse, playing me for nine-eight doubleton. If he does lead the jack, then I can win with the king, run my clubs, and exit with a heart, forcing declarer to lead spades from his hand for down one.

Obviously at the time I ducked the heart king, I didn't know enough about the layout to see how playing the nine might gain. But I think I should have found the play anyway on general principles. The falsecard of the nine frequently gives declarer extra options. So long as these aren't winning options, gratuitously playing the nine is often a good idea. All I had to do was follow Michael Rosenberg's rule: "Always play the nine unless you have to."

Sunday, February 18, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ K J   Q 2   A 10 7 4  ♣ K J 10 9 7  

Partner opens with one club in second seat. With my major-suit holdings, it could be right to bid notrump before partner does. Perhaps, if two notrump were forcing, I would choose it. But it isn't. And blasting three notrump is too unilateral for my taste.

I raise to two clubs, showing a limit raise or better. Partner rebids two notrump and I raise to three. RHO leads the four of hearts.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ K J
Q 2
A 10 7 4
♣ K J 10 9 7






SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q 8 5
A 8 5 3
Q 8
♣ A Q 5 4


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot
Pass 1 ♣
Pass 2 ♣ Pass 2 NT
Pass 3 NT (All pass)

I have nine tricks once I knock out the spade ace. The four is the lowest outstanding heart, so hearts are four-three one way or the other. That means the opponents can't cash enough tricks to beat me when they get in. This hand is going to be about overtricks. My first chance for an overtrick is for West to hold the heart king. I rise with the queen. East covers with the king.

It appears blasting three notrump would have worked out well. Those who do that might make four, and it's hard to see anyone's doing worse than plus 600. So unless I can find an overtrick somehow, this will be a below-average result.

No shift by East does any damage, so I see nothing to gain by winning this heart trick. In general, if you can't see any reason to win a trick, you're better off ducking. Accordingly, I play the three.

East continues with the heart seven. If I duck this trick, West may win and switch to a diamond. I will have no choice but to play low. East may then win and switch to back to hearts, setting up a fifth trick for the defense before the spade ace is knocked out. So this heart I can't afford to duck. I rise with the ace. West drops the jack.

That's a good sign. If West started with jack-nine-four, the hearts are blocked and the defense will be able to cash only one heart when they get in with the spade ace.

I lead the spade five. West hops with the ace. I unblock the king to maintain flexibility (although it's hard to see how it will ever matter), and East plays the seven. West cashes the heart nine I pitch the four of diamonds from the dummy, and East follows with the six. West shifts to the spade deuce. I win with dummy's jack, and East follows with the three. This is the position, with the lead in dummy:


NORTH
Phillip
♠ --
--
A 10 7
♣ K J 10 9 7






SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q
 8
Q 8
♣ A Q 5 4

West apparently did start with jack-nine-four of hearts, and East has the ten left. I have all the tricks but one, so the count is right for a squeeze. But I don't have the entries. I have no way to get to my hand after cashing five clubs.

Maybe I can put some pressure on East anyway, though. Suppose I cash four rounds of clubs, ending in my hand. East must come down to four cards. He doesn't know I don't have four spades. So he might decide to keep two spades and a heart and come down to a stiff diamond. I then have to guess whether to play him for a stiff king or a stiff jack.

I start by leading the club seven to my ace, then the four of clubs back to dummy's nine. Both opponents follow. If East has four spades as I hope, then he is 4-4-3-2. I lead the ten of clubs, and East discards the five of diamonds. I play low from my hand, retaining the queen to win the fourth trick. West discards the three of diamonds. 

East, I hope, is now down to a doubleton diamond and a doubleton spade and must decide on the next trick which suit to unguard. I lead the jack of clubs from dummy. East throws the heart ten, and I win in my hand with the club queen.

Well! That wasn't the mistake I was expecting, but it'll do. I have the rest.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ K J
Q 2
A 10 7 4
♣ K J 10 9 7


WEST
Robot
♠ A 9 6 2
J 9 4
J 9 3 2
♣ 8 6


EAST
Robot
♠ 10 7 4 3
K 10 7 6
K 6 5
♣ 3 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q 8 5
A 8 5 3
Q 8
♣ A Q 5 4

Plus 630 is worth 96%. It turns out even plus 600 is above average, since some managed to go down in three notrump or even to miss game altogether. It's not a good field. 

Did East actually have a guess in the end game? Here was the position when I led the club jack and East had to make his critical discard:


NORTH
Phillip
♠ --
--
A 10 7
♣ K J


WEST
Robot
♠ 9 6
--
J 9 2
♣ --


EAST
Robot
♠ 10 4
 10
K 6
♣ --


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q
 8
Q 8
♣ Q

If I held a low spade instead of a low heart, East indeed had to pitch the heart ten. But that's not possible. If West held the last heart, he would have played it after cashing the nine. It must be tough playing bridge when you are unable to draw the simplest of inferences.

As I looked over the play at other tables, I saw that almost every declarer started clubs by cashing the ace and queen. That's careless. You must arrange to win the fourth round of clubs in your hand to have any chance at an overtrick. Yes, I was lucky that East made an unlikely error. But the opponents' errors do you no good unless you are poised to take advantage of them.

One declarer did find an interesting way to make an overtrick. When West led the heart four, declarer played low from dummy. There was now no way to stop him from establishing his eight of hearts. East played the ten, and declarer ducked. East continued with the king, smothering dummy's queen, and declarer ducked again, as West played the jack. Unluckily, when declarer later won the ace, felling the nine, he didn't realize that his eight was high. So he made only three anyway.

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K   A J 7 3   A K 5  ♣ K 10 9 7 2  

I deal and open with one club. Partner bids one spade.

The obvious rebid is two hearts. But I don't like reversing with robots, since the methods they play after reverses are unplayable. Should I rebid two notrump instead? Two hearts promises at least five clubs, which might make it easier to get to a club slam if that's where we belong. And, unlike two notrump, two hearts doesn't promise a doubleton spade. The nightmare hand in the robot's methods is a minimum reverse with three-card support for responder's suit. Since that's not what I have, perhaps I can survive bidding two hearts.

I bid two hearts and partner raises to three hearts, forcing. Should I cue-bid four diamonds? That should show a little better than a minimum reverse, and this hand certainly qualifies. True, both my suits are weak. I would have a better hand if my diamond king were the club queen. But I do have seven controls and a fitting card in partner's suit. That's too much for a signoff.

Opposite a real partner, I would bid four diamonds. But the tooltip says that call shows 20+ total points. If that's what partner expects, he will be disappointed with this hand. I reluctantly bid four hearts. Partner passes, and LHO leads the diamond queen.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A Q 10 9 4 3
Q 8 6 2
10 9 6
♣ --






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K
A J 7 3
A K 5
♣ K 10 9 7 2


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
1 ♣
Pass 1 ♠ Pass 2
Pass 3 Pass 4
(All pass)

There are two ways to approach this hand. I could play for control: draw trumps and run the spades. Or I could play for a scramble: cash two spades and two diamonds and try for six trump tricks.

A method I sometimes use for analyzing a hand with lots of options is to look for a line that guarantees the contract on normal breaks. If I can find one, then I can use that as a starting point and try to improve on it. Let's assume that no one has a singleton spade or diamond and that hearts are three-two. Can I guarantee the contract under those conditions?

If I play to run spades, I'll need two dummy entries: one to ruff a spade, establishing the suit, and another to get back to dummy to run it. Let's say I win the diamond, cash the spade king, then play ace and a heart toward the queen. If the king is on my left, I'm home. I have one entry with the heart queen and a second entry with a club ruff. But if a heart to the queen loses to the king on my right, I'm down to one dummy entry. I can still run spades if the jack drops, but I'm not cold.

Can I do better by cashing the spade king and leading the heart jack? If the opponents take the king, I have my two entries. If they duck with king third, however, I have only one. A priori, this is a worse line than playing LHO for the heart king. LHO will have the heart king 50% of the time, but the king will be doubleton only 40% of the time (under my assumption of three-two trumps). It's actually a little better than 40% in practice, since sometimes a defender will make a mistake and win with king third. But neither line is close to a sure thing on normal breaks. And if hearts are four-one, my chances deteriorate quickly with either of these lines.

What happens if I play for a scramble? Say I win the diamond, ruff a club to dummy, play a spade to the king, ruff another club, play a diamond to my hand, ruff a third club, and cash the spade ace, pitching a diamond. That's seven tricks. I need three more. I'm down to this position with the lead in dummy:


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q 10 9 4
Q
10
♣ --






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
A J 7 3
 --
♣ K 10

I have two natural trump tricks, bringing me up to nine. Unless West led from a doubleton queen of diamonds, I can ruff a diamond for my tenth trick. If East is out of diamonds, he can complicate matters by ruffing in with the ten or nine. But if East has only two diamonds, then, under my assumption of three-two trumps, he must have at least four clubs. So I can overruff with the jack and ruff a club with the heart queen for my tenth trick.

In fact, even if my assumption of three-two trumps is wrong, I'm still OK. If East overruffs the club with the heart king, I know he began with four hearts. So if he exits with a heart, I can just duck it, letting West win his singleton and score my ace-seven at the end.

Playing for the scramble is not a sure thing under my assumptions. I still need West to have a third diamond. But, as compensation, the assumption of three-two trumps proved to be unnecessary. It's clearly a better option than playing for control, so that's the line I'll adopt.

East plays the deuce of diamonds at trick one. I win with the ace, the card I'm known to hold.

I ruff a club. West plays the four; East, the eight. Someone withheld the three. Since the opponents must have the same parity, that means someone gave false count. 

I play a spade--deuce--king--seven. I ruff another club. West plays the five; East plays the missing three.

In my walkthrough, I played a diamond to my king at this point. But I think it's better to cash a spade first, just in case something bad happens and I don't get back to dummy to cash it in time. I cash the spade ace, pitching a diamond. East plays the five; West, the eight.

I play a diamond to my king. East plays the three: West, the four. Now another club ruff. West plays the six; East, the queen.

I've reached the position above. I do have another way to score a tenth trick if I'm worried the diamond is getting overruffed. I can try to cash the spade queen. Both opponents did play up the line in spades, so perhaps spades are three-three. But I can hardly be sure of that. I see no reason to suspect West led a diamond from queen doubleton. So I'll take my chances that a diamond ruff survives.

A play a diamond. East plays the seven. I ruff, and West follows with the jack. I still have two heart tricks coming, so I've made my contract. Let's see what I can do about overtricks.

I ruff a club with the heart queen. West plays the jack: East, the ace. If the spade queen cashes, that gives me eleven tricks. It does. Now I'm down to this position.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 9 4
 --
 --
♣ --






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
A J 7
--
♣ --

I lead a spade. East ruffs with the ten. I overruff with the jack. West overruffs with the king and must lead into my ace-seven of hearts. The heart king was was my only loser. Making six.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A Q 10 9 4 3
Q 8 6 2
10 9 6
♣ --


WEST
Robot
♠ J 8 7
K 4
Q J 8 4
♣ J 6 5 4


EAST
Robot
♠ 6 5 2
10 9 5
7 3 2
♣ A Q 8 3


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K
A J 7 3
A K 5
♣ K 10 9 7 2

Plus 480 is worth 79%. Those who rebid two notrump reached four spades, usually making only five. Expecting an eight- or nine-card spade fit, responder didn't bother to look for a four-four heart fit. That's not necessarily the right decision. The six-card suit often serves as source of discards when it's a side suit. This hand is an example of that principle. In hearts, you can discard the diamond loser on the spades. In spades, there is no way to avoid the diamond loser. Still, North's hearts are quite weak. If hearts break badly, it may be better to play in spades. So declining to look for a four-four heart fit might be the percentage decision.

Among those who chose to reverse, no one bid four diamonds over three hearts. Although one person apparently spurned the bid because he thought his hand was too good. He chose Blackwood. His partner decided, reasonably, not to show the club void, so they stopped in five. Declarer did opt for the scramble, but he mistimed the end position and made only five.

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ Q 9 8 2   A K 10 8   9  ♣ K Q 9 6  

RHO passes and I open with one club. Partner bids one diamond, I bid one heart, and partner bids one spade, artificial and forcing to game.

One spade denies four spades in the robots' methods. Partner must bid two spades to show a spade suit. I'm sure some players will rebid one notrump, believing that, since we can't have an eight-card spade fit, that there is no reason to bid your spade suit. That would make sense with a 4-4-2-3 pattern or even with 4-4-1-4 and a stiff diamond honor. But with a small singleton diamond it's better to bid spades so partner knows you are three-suited. If partner's diamonds are weak, we may wish to avoid notrump. In fact, if partner has a good hand with a club fit, showing my diamond shortness may enable us to bid a club slam.

The next question is how many spades to bid. Had partner responded one spade initially, I would have raised to three with my 17 support points. Why not bid three spades now to show the same hand?

Some players have a phobia about jumping in a game forcing auction. Why take up the bidding space when two spades is forcing, they say? One good reason is that the 17-19 range is awkward for opener when responder forces to game. It's strong enough that slam is possible but not strong enough to risk a bid past game. So, when your hand falls in that range, you should show it if possible. Then you can sit back and leave the rest of the auction to partner.

In short, there is nothing wrong with consuming bidding space when you are making a bid that perfectly describes your hand. In that case, the gain in keeping the auction low is illusory. Perhaps if you simply tell partner what you have, he will know what to do.

I bid three spades, and partner bids four diamonds. What's that about? Could partner have self-sufficient diamonds? No. The robots play strong jump shifts at the two level. With self-sufficient diamonds and slam interest, he would have bid two diamonds over one club. And with a minimum game force, he would be bidding three notrump now.

This should be a choice-of-games cue-bid, suggesting two places to play. I doubt the robots are that sophisticated. But one thing for sure: Partner doesn't think three notrump is the right spot. So I bid four hearts to suggest a four-three heart fit. 

Partner bids four spades. This sequence should imply that I can correct to five clubs if it looks right. I might be 4-4-0-5 after all. My spade suit is a bit weak for a four-three fit, so I'm not too happy about playing four spades.  But playing clubs a level higher doesn't look any better. And, even if it did, I doubt partner and I are on the same wavelength. I just have to pass and hope for the best.

I pass, and RHO leads the club deuce.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 9 8 2
A K 10 8
9
♣ K Q 9 6






SOUTH
Robot
♠ A J 10
J 7 6
A J 8 7 6 5 3
♣ --


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot
Pass 1 ♣ Pass 1
Pass 1 Pass 1 ♠
Pass 3 ♠ Pass 4
Pass 4 Pass 4 ♠
(All pass)

With a club void and the knowledge that his diamond suit is worthless, partner made a good decision to avoid three notrump. I'm still not sure what he had in mind with four diamonds. Why not just raise three spades to four? Or, if four diamonds was intended as choice-of-games, why not respect my choice and pass four hearts?

I happy he didn't pass four hearts. Four spades looks like a better spot. I have two hearts tricks, one diamond trick, and one club trick after I ruff out East's ace. I need six trump tricks to make this. I can score three club ruffs in my hand. As long as I can ruff one diamond with my trump deuce. I can score three trump tricks in dummy. And here I thought my spades weren't good enough for a four-three fit. The nine-eight of spades turn out to be important cards.

Is making four good enough? What happens in three notrump? If you can take four spades and four hearts, a club, and a diamond, you can make four notrump. But that takes a lot of good luck. More likely three notrump makes only three or possibly even goes down. So I needn't worry about overtricks in four spades. I'll pretend I'm playing IMPs and try to maximize my chance of making this.

How might I go down? Given the lead of the club deuce, each defender should have at least three clubs, so I don't have to worry about a club's being overruffed. Someone might have a stiff diamond, but it's hard to see that I can do anything about that. Can I do anything about a stiff heart? 

If I'm lucky enough that the stiff heart is the queen, perhaps I can.  Let's say I ruff out East's club ace, then play a heart to my hand and the queen drops. I'll have four hearts tricks, so perhaps I can switch plans, playing for control. I ruff a club with the spade ace, then lead the jack of spades, overtaking with the queen if East plays low. I should be able to hold the defense to the spade king, one heart ruff, and one club trick at the end.

I play the club king from dummy. East covers with the ace, and I ruff with the spade ten. I lead the six of hearts--deuce--king--four. No stiff queen. I have to hope the second heart holds up.

I could cash the club queen, but I'm not sure what I want to pitch yet. Since I know no one has a doubleton club, cashing the queen can wait. I lead the six of clubs--four--spade jack--club seven. Now another heart. I might as well lead the jack. I don't think West will cover with king-ten in the dummy. But who knows? West plays the three on my jack. I go up with the ace, and East drops the five. I cash the club queen, pitching a heart from my hand. East play the three; West, the eight.

Here is the current position, with the lead in dummy:


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 9 8 2
 10 8
9
♣ 9






SOUTH
Robot
♠ A 
 --
A J 8 7 6 5 3
♣ --

I need to ruff the diamond now. I don't want to ruff something in my hand and give an opponent a chance to pitch a diamond. I play a diamond to the ace, East contributes the king, and West follows with the four. Now another diamond--ten--spade deuce--diamond deuce. I'm home. I ruff a club with the spade ace and have two trump tricks in dummy coming to me. Making four


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 9 8 2
A K 10 8
9
♣ K Q 9 6


WEST
Robot
♠ K 5 4
Q 3 2
Q 10 4
♣ 8 7 5 2


EAST
Robot
♠ 7 6 3
9 5 4
K 2
♣ A J 10 4 3


SOUTH
Robot
♠ A J 10
J 7 6
A J 8 7 6 5 3
♣ --

I could have made five by taking the heart finesse. But that would be dangerous and greedy. Plus 620 is worth 89%. 

No one duplicated my auction. I'm not surprised. In retrospect, I think I should have bid two spades, not three. I stand behind my earlier rant in principle. When you have a descriptive bid available, you shouldn't shy away from it just because it takes up bidding space. But there is a special consideration in this auction that I didn't think about at the time. What if partner was preparing a forcing heart raise? He no longer has a forcing bid in hearts available, so he will have to guess how many hearts to bid. Since partner might have a plan, I shouldn't get in his way. 

Still, I think either two spades or three spades is a better choice than the misdescriptive one notrump that was the most popular call. And much better than the unilateral three notrump, a frequent choice that I don't understand at all. Either of those rebids lands you in three notrump.

What happens after two spades? Partner bids two notrump, then removes your three notrump to four hearts. Two players played four hearts after this sequence. One made it and one went down two.

I understand partner can't bid three hearts over two spades, since that should show a prepared raise with four trumps. So a temporizing two notrump makes sense. But it does seem better to remove three notrump to four diamonds, offering partner a choice of majors. Apparently the robot believed he had to make the choice himself. It's interesting that on my auction partner guessed to play spades but after a two-spade bid he guessed to play hearts.