Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 25 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q 7 6  ♥ K Q 9 3  ♦ A Q 3  ♣ Q 5 4

RHO passes. In the early days of bridge, this hand would not qualify for a strong notrump opening, since it contains only three honor tricks. A one-notrump opening was expected to contain three and a half or four. Possibly this judgment is correct. Queens are overvalued relative to aces in the Work point count. So with four queens and only one ace, 15 HCP overstates the value of the hand. 

Still, such considerations are less important--possibly even wrong--for notrump bidding. So I'm opening with one notrump anyway. If partner steers toward a suit contract, I'll consider this a sub-minimum.

Over one notrump, LHO bids two spades, showing spades and a minor. Partner bids two notrump, a puppet to three clubs. I bid three clubs and LHO doubles. The tooltip says this shows "rebiddable clubs," so I assume LHO has at least five clubs. He might have only four spades.

Partner bids three diamonds, to play, ending the auction. RHO leads the club deuce.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 7 6 ♥ K Q 9 3 ♦ A Q 3 ♣ Q 5 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 10 4 ♥ J 8 7 4 ♦ K J 8 6 2 ♣ 6 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 NT	2 ♠	2 NT
Pass	3 ♣	Double	3 ♦
(All pass)

Partner had quite a problem over two spades. A negative double, intending to correct three clubs to three diamonds, might work out. But if opener passes the double, as he usually will with four spades, you won't be happy. I don't believe the robots play negative doubles here anyway, so pass and two notrump were partner's only options. While I don't like passing with spade shortness, I don't like playing five-two fits at the three level either, so I would have simply passed.

I play a low club from dummy. East wins with the king and I play the three. Presumably West has jack third of clubs and East has ace-king-ten fifth.

East shifts to the heart five. This is probably a singleton. I must conceal the four so West won't be sure about that. I play the heart seven, and West takes the ace.

West cashes the spade ace. East plays the three and I drop the four. I haven't seen the deuce. The robots don't signal. But if they did, East's card should be attitude--low to say his heart shift was a singleton and high to say it wasn't.

On this particular layout, most players would probably agree on that. But some would play East's card as suit preference if dummy had the spade king instead of the queen. They would play high to ask for hearts and low to ask for clubs. I think that is a serious error. Playing low to ask for hearts sometimes and high to ask for hearts at other times is begging to have an accident. This is an attitude situation. Was your heart shift a singleton or not? It makes no difference whether the likely alternative to giving you a heart ruff is continuing spades or shifting to clubs. Sometimes the alternative won't be obvious, so the defenders should have to worry about that in order to determine to what kind of signal East should give. Switching signaling methods based on some irrelevant criterion provides no benefit, so why bother? If you always play attitude here, you can't have an accident.

West continues with the jack of spades. I don't want to give him another chance to find the heart ruff, so I cover with the queen. East wins with the king and cashes the club ace. West plays the eight. That's the fifth trick for the opponents, so I'm already down one.

East now plays the spade five. I can ruff high or low. When does it matter?

Ruffing low costs if West is out of spades, since West can overruff and give his partner a heart ruff. In other words, it costs when East is 6-1-1-5. If that's the case and I ruff high, I promote a trump trick for West and go down two. But if I ruff low, I lose two more tricks and go down three.

Is that construction possible? Personally, with a six-card major I would just treat the hand as a one-suiter and forget the club suit. Taking an auction where you might have only four spades but actually have six is an easy way to miss a game. But the robots may not agree, so that is at best a mild inference.

When does it cost to ruff high? It costs if West has four diamonds but is following to the spade. If I ruff high in that case, I promote a trump trick for West for no reason. So ruffing high costs if East is 5-2-1-5.

Is that construction possible? I was assuming East's heart shift was from a singleton. But perhaps it wasn't. East didn't know his partner had the spade ace, so neither black suit was attractive at trick two. Maybe East shifted to heart simply to be passive. In fact, that seems quite likely, since it would explain West's failure to give him a ruff. West can be pretty sure I don't have five hearts, so if he has ace third of hearts, he knows East's heart wasn't a singleton.

5-2-1-5 is more likely a priori than 6-1-1-5, and it is suggested by both the auction and the play. So I ruff with the eight. East overruffs with the nine and gives his partner a heart ruff. Down three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 7 6 ♥ K Q 9 3 ♦ A Q 3 ♣ Q 5 4
WEST Robot ♠ A J ♥ A 10 6 2 ♦ 10 9 7 5 ♣ J 8 2		EAST Robot ♠ K 9 8 5 3 2 ♥ 5 ♦ 4 ♣ A K 10 9 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 10 4 ♥ J 8 7 4 ♦ K J 8 6 2 ♣ 6 3

Minus 150 is worth 57%. It's above average because the opponents are cold for a spade game and get there if you don't open with one notrump. If I ruff high and go minus 100, I get 86%.

One thing that didn't occur to me at the time is that West might have assumed I had six diamonds. Perhaps he didn't give his partner a heart ruff because he didn't think his partner had any trumps. Perhaps he thought East was 6-2-0-5. But even if I had thought of that, I doubt I would have changed my mind. East's holding 5-2-1-5 seemed like a pretty likely construction.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 18 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A Q J 10 2  ♥ A 2  ♦ A 10 9 3  ♣ 10 8

Two passes to me. I open with one spade. Partner responds with two clubs (Drury), showing 10 to 12 support points and at least three spades. RHO doubles, showing a good club suit.

I don't need much for game. King fourth of spades and king doubleton of diamonds is enough, and that's not even close to a two-club bid. What do I need for a slam? King fourth of spades, king-queen of hearts, the club ace, and a doubleton diamond? That's not possible, since that's an opening bid. And even if it were possible, it would be too aggressive to make a slam move. You don't want to invite a slam unless it's virtually laydown opposite a perfect minimum.

I bid four spades, which ends the auction. West leads the club queen.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 7 5 3 ♥ K 10 5 4 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 7 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q J 10 2 ♥ A 2 ♦ A 10 9 3 ♣ 10 8

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♣	Double	4 ♠
(All pass)

I have two club losers. If I can find the diamond queen, I can take the rest. Perhaps I can exploit the robots' tendency to assume I'm double-dummy and to cover an honor with an honor any time it might gain a trick.

If I lead the diamond ten out of my hand, can I assume West will cover? No, I can't. Whether he covers or not, I can take three diamond tricks, then ruff the fourth one. There is no reason for West to cover.

How about East? If I lead the jack from the dummy, will he cover? With queen doubleton or third he will, since it might promote his partner's ten. The fact that I'm unlikely to lead the diamond jack unless I hold the ten myself won't occur to him. With queen fourth, however, he might not cover. If he works out I have four diamonds, then covering with queen fourth can't gain unless he has the eight. Still, it appears my best chance at finding the diamond queen is to lead the jack from dummy. If it isn't covered, I'll take the ace and finesse against West.

East plays the club five on his partner's queen, and I drop the eight. West continues with the nine of clubs to his partner's king. There is no reason for East to break a red suit. He will probably shift to a trump. He does. He plays the spade six. I play the ten, and West discards the heart three.

The robots' first discard is usually honest count, so it appears West has five hearts. I know from East's double of two clubs that West has at most four clubs, so West is probably either 0-5-4-4 or 0-5-5-3. East might have shifted to a stiff diamond at trick three, since for all he knows his partner has the ace, so that eliminates the latter possibility. My working assumption is that West is 0-5-4-4.

The fact that I have to draw four rounds of trump changes things. Since I can no longer ruff the fourth diamond in dummy, I can't afford to start the suit by leading the jack. If West has queen fourth, I'll need to take a first-round finesse to pick up the suit. No. I'm wrong. Three diamond tricks are enough, since West gets squeezed in the red suits. This will be the position after I win the third round of diamonds in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K 10 5 4 ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ ? ? x ♦ Q ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ ? x ♦ -- ♣ A x
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 2 ♥ A 2 ♦ 8 ♣ --

I now lead a heart to the ace, cash the last trump, and West is squeezed. This means I can still afford the fishing play of leading the diamond jack.

But first I have to draw trump. Standard technique is to play your cards so that the defender making discards must play first. It's better to force him to play before he sees his partner's card. So I play the spade three from dummy on this trick, then lead the spade jack. West discards the diamond six. This looks like a count card from four, confirming my suspicion that West is 0-5-4-4. It also suggests the diamond queen is on my right, since West might be reluctant to pitch from queen fourth. Although perhaps he sees the squeeze coming and knows it doesn't matter.

I follow to this trick with the spade five from dummy, then lead the spade queen from my hand. West discards the diamond deuce. If my construction is correct, the remaining diamonds are two-two. I play the spade seven from dummy, continuing to leave the lead in my hand. I now lead the spade deuce, West discards the diamond five, and I win in dummy with the king.

There are only three diamonds left. They are probably one-two. But I might as well assume my construction is wrong. Sometimes the hardest problems occur when you are 98% sure you know what is going on and it makes no difference what you do. You should always assume it makes a difference. Even if there is only a 2% chance it matters, it's important to work out how to cater to that 2%.

Leading the diamond jack from dummy isn't going to work anymore, since East no longer has any reason to cover. So if someone has three diamonds, I must decide who it is and cash the right honor first.

Who might it be? If it's East, then West is either 0-7-3-3 or 0-6-3-4. The latter is inconsistent with West's low heart discard. In addition, East would have shifted to a stiff heart at trick three.

Could West be 0-7-3-3? With that, he might have bid something at favorable vulnerability. And holding seven hearts, he might have worked out to give his partner a heart ruff at trick two--or at least have led the club jack to retain the lead.

If West has all the diamonds, then he is 0-5-6-2. Again, he might have bid with that hand. But I see nothing in the defense or carding inconsistent with this layout. It's the least unlikely of the unlikely scenarios, so I want to cash the diamond ace.

I lead the diamond jack to the ace. As expected, everyone follows, so I claim. (East did cover by the way, perhaps guarding against my having started with three small.)

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 7 5 3 ♥ K 10 5 4 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 7 6
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ Q 9 7 6 3 ♦ 8 6 5 2 ♣ Q J 9 2		EAST Robot ♠ 9 8 6 4 ♥ J 8 ♦ Q 7 ♣ A K 5 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q J 10 2 ♥ A 2 ♦ A 10 9 3 ♣ 10 8

Plus 650 is worth 79%. A number of declarers found a way to take only ten tricks, often by taking an early diamond finesse against West. In general, one should postpone critical decisions as long as possible, since you may get information that will prompt you to change your mind. Sometimes taking a finesse early is appropriate. You may have communication problems. Or you may decide that, should the finesse lose, the defense is more apt to make a mistake if you lose it early. Neither of those considerations applies here. Taking an early finesse is a clear error.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 11 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ A 9  ♥ Q 10 6 4  ♦ A K J 10 5 3  ♣ K

One spade on my left, pass, pass to me. 

If the one spade bid had come on my right, I would overcall with two diamonds. Some would double for fear of missing a heart fit. But since the opponents have the master suit, missing a heart fit doesn't worry me so much as missing the chance to get my six-card suit into the auction. It is unlikely we can outbid the opponents unless we find a diamond fit.

When the opponents have bailed out at the one-level, however, the situation is different. Now it may well be our hand--possibly for a game--so I'm more concerned about finding a heart fit. That makes doubling more attractive.

I double, LHO passes, and partner bids three clubs. There's not much point in bidding diamonds now. If we don't have a heart fit, our likeliest game is three notrump. Partner probably has some help in spades, so I'm not worried about my single stopper.

I bid three notrump, everyone passes, and LHO leads the king of spades

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 5 4 ♥ A K 9 ♦ 8 7 ♣ Q 8 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 9 ♥ Q 10 6 4 ♦ A K J 10 5 3 ♣ K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
1 ♠	Pass	Pass	Double
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Partner is contributing the expected second stopper in spades, so I have time to set up the diamond suit. If diamonds split, I can take five diamonds, three hearts, and a spade, for nine tricks. The opponents can take at most two spades, a diamond, and the club ace. So I make three notrump. A problem arises only if diamonds are five-zero. But, assuming I attack diamonds by taking a finesse against the queen, I can still take five diamond tricks. If I carelessly cash the diamond ace first, however, I'm in trouble.

At IMPs, taking the diamond finesse is clear, since it guarantees the contract. But at matchpoints could it be right to cash the ace-king, trying to drop a doubleton queen offside? West is known to have the preponderance of high cards after all. But he is also known to have at least five of the seven spades.

This is a fairly common problem. When one opponent is known to have most of the high cards but the other opponent rates to be longer in a given suit, how does that change the odds on how to play that suit? Is the high card disparity or the the length disparity more important?

If West has three or more diamonds, cashing the ace-king doesn't help, so we might as well assume that's not the case.What if we knew West had a doubleton diamond? Would it be right to play for the drop then? 

If we knew nothing about the location of high cards, knowing West had a doubleton diamond would make the finesse a three-to-two favorite. If we assume West has at least 11 HCP, then East is restricted to at most three. (Yes, giving West 11 HCP is a simplification. If he is 5332, he probably has at least 12. If he is shapely, he could have nine or ten. But to keep things simple, we'll assume he has at least 11.)

Crediting East with at most three HCP means that if East has three small diamonds, he could have the heart jack, the club jack, neither, or both. If East has queen third of diamonds, then he can have the heart jack, the club jack, or neither, but he can't have both. So, roughly speaking, the high card constraints have eliminated from consideration about a quarter of those hands where East has queen third of diamonds. In other words, the finesse has gone from being a three-to-two favorite to being a two-and-a-quarter-to-two favorite. It's still a favorite--just less of one.

If it's right to take the finesse even if we knew West had a doubleton diamond, then it must be right if we aren't sure how diamonds split. If West has a singleton diamond, the finesse is a heavy favorite. And it is a heavier favorite yet if he has a void.

I play low from dummy at trick one, RHO plays the spade six and I win with the ace. I play a heart to dummy. West contributes the jack; East, the eight. I play a diamond from dummy and RHO plays the deuce. If I play the ten, West will probably assume I have the jack. If I play the jack, I could easily be missing the ten. So if West has queen-nine fourth of diamonds, the jack may conceal the fact that the suit is running.

I play the jack. West wins with the queen and cashes the spade queen. RHO follows with the seven. West now cashes the spade jack. If he doesn't cash the club ace next, I'll make an overtrick. On this trick, RHO pitches the club seven. Perhaps a diamond pitch will make it appear my diamonds aren't running, so I pitch the diamond three. West continues with another spade, and I claim

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 5 4 ♥ A K 9 ♦ 8 7 ♣ Q 8 4 3
WEST Robot ♠ K Q J 3 2 ♥ J 5 ♦ Q 9 6 4 ♣ A 2		EAST Robot ♠ 7 6 ♥ 8 7 3 2 ♦ 2 ♣ J 10 9 7 6 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 9 ♥ Q 10 6 4 ♦ A K J 10 5 3 ♣ K

Making four is worth 96%. The overtrick didn't matter much, since the field had difficulty reaching game. Most players balanced with two diamonds and played it there. I find that a little surprising, since I thought the field was fonder of off-shape take-out doubles than I am.

As far as the odds calculation goes, the methodology I described above is fine for an at-the-table approximation. But it assumes all four possible high-card layouts (heart jack, club jack, neither, and both) are all equally likely, which isn't quite the case. For those who care, here is a more accurate calculation:

If we assume East has two spades and three diamonds, then his remaining eight cards are chosen from a population of two jacks and eleven small cards. There are ₁₁C₇ ways he can have one specific jack, ₁₁C₈ ways he can have no jacks, and ₁₁C₆ ways he can have both. Since there are four ways for East to have three small diamonds, the total number of ways for the diamond queen to be offside is 4 * (2 * ₁₁C₇ + ₁₁C₈ + ₁₁C₆). There are six ways for East to hold queen third of diamonds, so the total number of ways for the queen to be onside is 6 * (2 * ₁₁C₇ + ₁₁C₈). That works out to about 51% in favor of the finesse, slightly worse than what we arrived at with our rough approximation.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 4 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

For the first two boards of this week's tournament, I got 93% for results that should have been below average. If I can manage a result for board three that should be above average, maybe I'll do even better.

I pick up this hand in first seat:

♠ A K Q 7 5  ♥ 10 8 3  ♦ K J 8 7  ♣ 7

I open with one spade, partner bids one notrump, I bid two diamonds and buy it. West leads the heart four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 ♥ A 6 ♦ Q 6 3 2 ♣ Q 10 5 4 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K Q 7 5 ♥ 10 8 3 ♦ K J 8 7 ♣ 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♦
(All pass)

If everything breaks, I can take five spades (ruffing one to set the suit up), three diamonds, and a heart. Nine tricks. If spades don't break, I won't score the long spade, but I'll still make eight tricks. A four-one diamond split, however, might prove to be a problem.

Let's say I hop with the heart ace and play a spade to the ace, ruff a spade, and play the diamond queen. It holds. I play another diamond and East shows out. Am I in trouble? West will win and tap me in clubs. Now I've lost control and can no longer run spades. Can I switch to a cross ruff? This is the position.

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 6 ♦ 6 ♣ Q 10 5 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 ♥ 10 8 ♦ K ♣ --

I've taken five tricks and need three more. As long West follows to a spade, I have them. I cash the spade king, pitching a heart from dummy, ruff a heart, and still have the diamond king. So as long as at least one of my suits breaks, I can manage eight tricks. If both suits break, I can make nine.

Back to trick one. I play the heart ace, East plays the jack, and I follow with the three. I assume the jack is intended to signal possession of the king. Since the deuce is missing, a likely lie of the heart suit is queen fifth on my left and king-jack third on my right.

I play a spade--four--ace--six. It's superficially tempting to cash the spade king, pitching a heart from dummy. But that's an illusion. I must ruff a spade to set up the suit, and I don't have the entries to ruff a heart also. So pitching a heart from dummy accomplishes nothing. In fact, it would be a mistake, because playing three rounds of spades before losing to the diamond ace exposes me to a possible uppercut.

Say, for example, I cash another spade, pitching heart, then ruff a spade in dummy. Everyone follows. I play a diamond to the jack. West takes the ace and plays a spade. I've manufactured a trump loser out of thin air.

So I don't take the pitch. I play the spade five and ruff in dummy. West plays the eight; East, the three.

Now queen of diamonds--five--seven--ace. West cashes the club ace, East playing the seven. He then switches to the diamond nine--three--four--king. Here is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 6 ♦ 6 ♣ Q 10 5 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 ♥ 10 8 ♦ J 8 ♣ --

This wasn't the best defense. West should have ducked the diamond ace. If he has ace third, he could then win the next diamond and play a third one. If he has ace doubleton, he could play a heart to his partner for a third diamond. After this defense, I may be able to make a second overtrick by ruffing a heart in dummy, which I hadn't planned on doing.

I cash the spade king, pitching dummy's heart. West follows with the jack; East, the deuce. Now I ruff a heart in dummy, ruff a club to my hand, and claim all but the last trick. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 ♥ A 6 ♦ Q 6 3 2 ♣ Q 10 5 4 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ J 8 6 ♥ Q 7 5 4 2 ♦ A 9 ♣ A 9 6		EAST Robot ♠ 10 4 3 2 ♥ K J 9 ♦ 10 5 4 ♣ K J 8
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K Q 7 5 ♥ 10 8 3 ♦ K J 8 7 ♣ 7

I said at the start that I hoped to achieve a result that should be above average. Did I succeed? I suspect most declarers will not see the danger of taking the heart pitch from dummy and will do so routinely. So my best chance is that the error will cost. Unfortunately, it doesn't. The hand with the diamond ace has short spades, so there is no trump promotion. Anyone who takes the pitch will get away with it.

So plus 130 should be a fairly normal result. Still, I might do worse and I can't see doing better. So I suppose this qualifies as "a result that should be above average."

And indeed it is. Plus 130 is worth 100%.