Sunday, January 30, 2022

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 15

Board 15
Our side vulnerable

♠ 6   7 4 2   Q 10 8 2  ♣ K 10 8 3 2  

I pass in first seat. LHO opens with one spade, RHO raises to three, and LHO goes on to four. Partner leads the ace of diamonds.The robots lead king from ace-king. So this is either an unsupported ace or ace-king doubleton.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 8 7 3 2
Q 5
5 3
♣ A Q J 7




EAST
Phillip
♠ 6
7 4 2
Q 10 8 2
♣ K 10 8 3 2




West North East South
Robot Robot Phillip Robot


Pass 1 ♠
Pass 3 ♠ Pass 4 ♠
(All pass)


I don't want partner shifting to hearts from the king, so I encourage with the diamond eight. This says less about my enthusiasm for diamonds than it does about my lack of tolerance for a heart shift. Declarer follows with the four. 

Partner cashes the heart ace. I discourage with the deuce, and declarer follows with the nine. I expect partner to shift back to diamonds now. Having set up declarer's hearts, he needs to cash my diamond king if I have it. But he continues with the heart three--queen--seven--six. Apparently, he is playing me for the heart king despite my encouraging diamond at trick one. Fortunately, I have the diamond queen, not the king, so his play didn't matter. In partner's defense, my eight was a lazy play. It could have been my lowest from queen-ten-eight. I can afford the ten, so I should have played it.

Declarer leads the eight of spades from dummy and rides it to partner's king. Partner returns the spade five. Partner has shown up with two red aces and the spade king. With that much in high cards, he would have doubled one spade with the right shape. So obviously he has a doubleton club. That means I have a club trick coming and declarer is down one.

Wrong. Declarer has a stiff club. Making four.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 8 7 3 2
Q 5
5 3
♣ A Q J 7


WEST
Robot
♠ K 5
A J 10 3
A 9 7 6
♣ 9 6 4


EAST
Phillip
♠ 6
7 4 2
Q 10 8 2
♣ K 10 8 3 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ A Q J 9 4
K 9 8 6
K J 4
♣ 5

This result is dead average. Every pair was minus 420. This is why it's hard to get a big score in non-best-hand tournaments. Sometimes you have no opportunity to do anything good--or even to screw anything up. In this deal, every decision of any consequence was made by a robot, who will presumably do the same thing at every table. So you are destined to get an average. 

I'm not sure why partner didn't double one spade. It doesn't look close. Thirteen support points, three honor tricks, and support for all unbid suits-- including four hearts. I'm not sure what more the robots think you need.

Also, the diamond ace is a strange opening lead. If you lead a club, declarer has to guess diamonds to make it.

Or maybe not. How will the play go? Declarer wins with the club ace and floats the eight of spades. West wins and returns a spade. Declarer wins in dummy and leads the club queen. If East covers, declarer makes easily. He ruffs, plays a heart to the queen, and cashes a club, pitching a diamond. This is the position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 7 3 2
5
5 3
♣ 7






SOUTH
Robot
♠ A Q
K 9 8
K J
♣ --

He then leads a heart to the eight. West wins with the ten, and, since he is out of clubs, he is endplayed.

What if East doesn't cover the club queen? Declarer will probably ruff and play a heart to the queen. Declarer can still endplay West by ruffing another club and exiting with a low heart, but that would be a strange line. More likely, he will play a heart to eight. West wins with the ten and exits with his last club. Declarer ruffs, reaching this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 7 3 2
--
5 3
♣ J






SOUTH
Robot
♠ A
K 9
K J 4
♣ --

Declarer ruffs a heart in dummy, guessing whether to play East for a stiff jack or West for a stiff ace. Whichever one he tries, it doesn't work. So he is left with a guess in diamonds. Given West's failure to double one spade, he will probably guess wrong.

So far we are averaging about 60%. We have one board to go.

Sunday, January 23, 2022

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 14

Board 14
Neither vulnerable

♠ A J 10 6 4 3   J 8   K Q 7 4  ♣ 10  

RHO passes. I open one spade in second seat, and partner bids two clubs. It's more economical to bid two spades, then three diamonds over partner's likely two notrump than to bid two diamonds, then three spades. So I bid two spades. Partner messes up my plan by bidding three hearts. If I'd known he was going bid hearts, I would have bid two diamonds.

Now I have to choose between three notrump and three spades. My two-spade bid did not promise six spades in the robots' methods, so if I bid three notrump, partner is unlikely to correct to four spades. Furthermore, if I bid three spades, he is unlikely to bid three notrump unless he has a diamond stopper. So it's pretty much up to me to guess which strain is better. Three notrump is probably the right spot if partner has a singleton spade and might be right even opposite a doubleton, so I bid it. Everyone passes. West leads the deuce of diamonds.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 9 5
A K Q 9
J 5
♣ A Q 6 3 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A J 10 6 4 3
J 8
K Q 7 4
♣ 10


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip


Pass 1 ♠
Pass 2 ♣ Pass 2 ♠
Pass 3 Pass 3 NT
(All pass)


I have eight cashing tricks once I knock out the diamond ace. I need one more. I might have lots more in the spade suit, but I have communication problems. My best play in spades is (A) to get to dummy twice to take two finesses. But since the only entry to my hand is the heart jack, I can't easily use hearts as one of my dummy entries. If I can reach dummy only once, my best play is (B) to take one finesse against East, then try to drop the other honor. This works if East has honor doubleton, both honors third, or three small. The problem with that line is it means I have to lead a club to the ace, spurning the finesse. But if spades don't come home, I need that club finesse for my ninth trick. Perhaps I'm better off (C) starting spades from my hand, playing West for a doubleton honor, and retaining the option of taking a club finesse later. If I believe West will hop with honor doubleton (and if I'm right in that belief), then (C) allows me to pick up honor doubleton offside or king-queen third onside, making it almost as good as (B). If I believe West will duck with honor doubleton, I have to give up on king-queen third onside, making it a quite inferior line.

I can postpone that decision for now. If I can reach dummy with the diamond jack, I'll take two spade finesses. If not, I'll worry then about how to play spades. What's the best way reach dummy with the diamond jack? If West has the diamond ace, playing the jack at trick one will work quite well. If East has the diamond ace, playing low might work. East can keep me off dummy by playing a spot, but he doesn't know I have both diamond honors. He may decide to play the ace and return a diamond. Since I don't have much to go on, I'll go with the fact that the robots seem to dislike leading from honors against notrump. I play low. Good guess. East wins with the ace and I drop the four. Now six of diamonds--seven--three--jack.

Next problem. Should I lead the spade nine or low? Low is better if East has a singleton honor. Or is it? Suppose I lead low and East plays an honor. If I had two side entries to my hand, I could win and lead low to the nine, then return to my hand and drive the remaining honor. But with only one entry, I can't do that. I'll have to smother the nine and hope spades are three-two. Since I'm going to have to smother the nine anyway, I might as well lead it. I play the nine of spades--king--ace--seven. The jack of spade drives West's queen and East follows, so I have the rest. Making five.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 9 5
A K Q 9
J 5
♣ A Q 6 3 2


WEST
Robot
♠ Q 8 7
6 5
10 8 3 2
♣ J 8 7 4


EAST
Robot
♠ K 2
10 7 4 3 2
A 9 6
♣ K 9 5


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A J 10 6 4 3
J 8
K Q 7 4
♣ 10

Plus 460 is worth 92%. Some declarers took fewer tricks in three notrump, but most reached four spades, making five, after a two diamond rebid by opener. Four spades does look like the better spot. I seem to have gotten lucky on this one.

I don't especially care for partner's three heart bid. Two notrump looks better to me. For one thing, if we belong in notrump, it may play better from the North side. It is often right to declare notrump from the side with a queen doubleton or jack doubleton. For another, two notrump leaves more room. Partner will bid a four-card heart suit over two notrump, so if you have a heart fit, you can still find it. And if he bids three diamonds, as he would here, you have left room show your doubleton spade. The three heart bid needlessly cramps the auction.

Sunday, January 16, 2022

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 13

Board 13
Both vulnerable

♠ 8 5 4 3   K J 8 2   K 10 8 5  ♣ 7  

Partner passes, and RHO opens with one club. I would double at favorable vulnerability. But with both vulnerable, this is a bit light. I pass. LHO bids one spade, and RHO bids one notrump. 

Double at this point should not be "a hand not quite good enough to double one club." If it wasn't safe to double when partner could respond at the one-level, it certainly isn't safe when he has to respond at the two-level, especially now that the opponents have had a chance to exchange information. Nor should double show a red two-suiter. Any red two-suiter worth entering the auction with now was worth a one-level overcall.

A double now should be take-out of spades and should bring clubs into the picture as a possible trump suit. You are probably either "4441" or "5431," and in the latter case your five-card suit is probably clubs, since you could have overcalled with a five-card red suit. It also shows a  good hand--at least a sound opening bid--allowing partner the option of defending one notrump if his best suit happens to be spades.

That's hardly what I have, so I pass, and RHO buys it for one notrump. I'm not leading from four small in dummy's suit. That risks picking up a queen or jack in partner's hand that declarer is destined to lose to if we don't break the suit. The choice is between a heart and a diamond. I should prefer to lead a suit in which neither declarer nor dummy has length. Since RHO would open one diamond with four-four in the minors, he is more likely to have four hearts than four diamonds. On the other hand, dummy is more likely to have four diamonds than four hearts. With four-four in the majors, he would have responded with one heart, and with five-four, he would be removing one notrump Those two considerations cancel out, so I'll choose the weaker suit, since it's less apt to give away a trick. I lead the diamond five.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A K 10 6
5 4 3
6 2
♣ Q 10 9 6


WEST
Phillip
♠ 8 5 4 3
K J 8 2
K 10 8 5
♣ 7






West North East South
Phillip Robot Robot Robot


Pass 1 ♣
Pass 1 ♠ Pass 1 NT
(All pass)


Dummy plays the deuce, partner the queen, and declarer wins with the ace. The robots know to play the jack from queen-jack at trick one (though they don't always do that on later tricks), so declarer should have the jack. Declarer has 12 to 14 HCP, so that leaves partner with 10 to 12. No. He passed in first seat. Make that 10 or 11. What do I know about the layout? Not much. Declarer is balanced, doesn't have four spades, and has longer clubs than diamonds--unless he's 3-4-3-3. I know nothing about the high cards outside the diamond suit.

As usual when I know so little, I'll start by making a prediction. If my prediction doesn't come true, I'll have learned something. Since clubs is obviously declarer's main source of tricks. my prediction is that declarer will attack clubs at trick two. He doesn't. He plays the spade queen. 

One possible reason for not attacking clubs is that they are already good. In other words, he has the ace-king of clubs. If so, then the ace-jack of diamonds and the spade queen brings him to 14 HCP, so partner has everything else. That's unlikely, however. With that hand declarer would probably run his clubs right away in order to put pressure on the defense.

A likelier possibility is that he is missing the club king and needs to reach dummy for a finesse. He is unblocking his queen doubleton of spades before leading a spade to dummy. (With queen third, he wouldn't cash the queen. He would just lead low to dummy.) If he had plenty of dummy entries, he might be missing king-jack of clubs and wish to start clubs from the dummy. But with only one dummy entry, he doesn't have that luxury. So I suspect he has ace-jack of clubs. One thing I am fairly confident of is that he has the ace. Missing that card, he would surely attack clubs before spades.

If I'm right that he has ace-jack of both minors, the spade queen brings him to 12 HCP, which means partner must have the heart ace. So we have lots of red tricks to cash whenever we get in. A quarter of a trick ago, I had no clue how the high cards were distributed. Now I have a pretty good idea.

I play the spade eight, and partner plays the deuce. Declarer then leads the nine of spades. I follow with the three, declarer finesses the ten, and partner wins with the jack.

By taking the spade finesse, declarer risked never getting to dummy in spades. That argues against his needing to take a club finesse. Perhaps his clubs are solid after all. Perhaps the reason he didn't run clubs is he wanted to save a club entry to dummy in case the spade finesse lost.

Partner shifts to the seven of diamonds. Declarer plays the four, and I win with the eight. For all declarer knows, the diamond king is onside, so he would not play low with jack small of diamonds left. He must have started with ace-jack fourth. With AJ94, he would have played the jack or nine rather than the four, so he must have AJ43 and partner must have started with Q97. Why didn't partner lead the nine so he could retain the lead? Who knows? But that has to be the diamond layout. Nothing else makes sense. 

If declarer has four diamonds, he is presumably 2-2-4-5, since he would open one diamond with 2-3-4-4. I have already worked out partner has the heart ace, so I shift to the deuce of hearts. Partner takes his ace, and declarer drops the nine.

Partner shifts to the nine of diamonds and declarer ducks again, playing the three. He seems to be hoping I led from king third. I win with the ten. I expect declarer to pitch a heart from dummy, but he doesn't. He pitches a club. When I cash the diamond king, he discards the club nine from dummy. Again, a heart discard seems more natural. Partner discards the club deuce. This is the current position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ A K
4 3
--
♣ Q 10


WEST
Phillip
♠ 5 4
K J 8
--
♣ 7



If my construction is correct, declarer has a stiff heart and five clubs left. So if I cash the heart king, we can take three heart tricks for down two. But before I commit myself, it's good practice to stop and ask if it's possible my construction is wrong. I have assumed South would open one diamond with four-four in the minors. But what if that's not true? Could he be 2-3-4-4 with queen third of hearts?

If so, could it gain not to cash the heart king? One possibility is to play partner for the club ace. I can lead to his ace and he can play a heart through declarer. But I decided long ago declarer has to have the club ace. If he is missing a club honor, it must be the king. So that option is out. 

Another possibility is that we can lock declarer in dummy and take two heart tricks in the end. Is that possible? In theory it is. If partner has king-eight third of clubs left, I can play either black suit. When declarer plays the club queen from dummy, partner covers, blocking the suit.

But that's absurd. I already observed that pitching clubs from dummy instead of hearts was strange. He surely wouldn't have done that if it might cut communication to his hand. So even if declarer did start with queen third of hearts, not cashing the queen can never gain. (Keeping those hearts losers in dummy was actually a clever ploy, since it gave me a losing option.)

I cash the king of hearts--three--six--queen. We take two more heart tricks, and declarer has the rest. Down two.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A K 10 6
5 4 3
6 2
♣ Q 10 9 6


WEST
Phillip
♠ 8 5 4 3
K J 8 2
K 10 8 5
♣ 7


EAST
Robot
♠ J 7 2
A 10 7 6
Q 9 7
♣ K 5 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q 9
Q 9
A J 4 3
♣ A J 8 4 3

Finessing the spade ten was a very strange play. It is certainly wrong if the finesse loses, since the hand falls apart. And it doesn't necessarily gain if the finesse wins. Suppose the spade ten holds but the club finesse loses. Now you are pitching winners as the defense runs red-suit tricks, so the extra winner in spades makes no difference. If a finesse is wrong when it loses and isn't necessarily right when it wins, it's probably not a good idea to take it.

Plus 200 is worth 74%. Some defenders led a spade. This failed for the expected reason: it picked up partner's honor. Others led a diamond but failed to read the position after that. They either cashed the diamond king prematurely or failed to cash the heart king when necessary. This was a tricky deal. There were lots of chances to go wrong, but the clues were always there to point you in the right direction. 

As is often the case, the gimmick of trying to predict what declarer is going to do makes spotting those clues easier. If you wait until you have a decision to make, the clues are harder to find. In this deal, for example, I needed to know at trick eight whether partner had the club ace. But the clue that he didn't occurred at trick two. At trick eight, a lot more has happened, and I have more information to sort through. While it's possible to review the play from the beginning and spot the clue, it's a lot more work. At trick two, making the inference is easy--so long as you take the effort to do it.

Sunday, January 9, 2022

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 12

Board 12
Neither vulnerable

♠ A K 5   K 10 4 3   K 7  ♣ A K 6 2  

Partner opens with 1NT. We have 35 to 37 combined HCP, and mine are all in aces and kings, so I am just short of driving to a grand slam. Our prospects may be better in a suit contract than in notrump. I can bid Stayman to find a heart fit, but after two clubs--two diamonds, I have no idea if it's possible to look for a club fit in the robots' methods. Maybe 5NT would work. It should be forcing to 6NT and request that partner bid suits up the line. Unfortunately, I have no way of finding out what partner thinks a bid means until it's actually an option and I have a tooltip available, so it's impossible to plan ahead.

I'll start with two clubs and hope I can bid 5NT later if necessary. Partner bids two hearts. Good. Now I don't have to worry about a club fit. A common agreement here is that three of the other major shows support for partner's major and slam interest, and the robots do play that, so I bid three spades. Partner bids four diamonds. He shows more than a minimum by cooperating with my slam try, so I'm now willing to bid a grand slam if we have all the keycards.

I bid four notrump, and partner bids five spades, showing two keycards and the trump queen. We have all the keycards. Now I have to decide whether seven hearts or seven notrump is better. I know ten of partner's high-card points. Since he has shown more than a minimum, he needs six more. Let's give him two queens and two jacks. Any two queens (unless he has ace-queen doubleton of diamonds) gives us twelve cashing tricks. A jack along with one of the queens might provide a thirteenth. But it might also be wasted. Queen-jack third of spades is worthless, as is ace-queen-jack tight of diamonds. On the other hand, a thirteenth trick might easily come from a ruff. Any of the three side suits might provide one. In short, seven hearts looks quite good, and seven notrump, while possible, looks speculative. So I bid seven hearts. 

Everyone passes, and West leads the four of spades.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A K 5
K 10 4 3
K 7
♣ A K 6 2






SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q 7 3
A Q J 5 2
A J 5
♣ J 9


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot


Pass 1 NT
Pass 2 ♣ Pass 2
Pass 3 ♠ Pass 4
Pass 4 NT Pass 5 ♠
Pass 7 (All pass)

Partner judged well to evaluate his hand as better than a minimum even though he has only 15 HCP. The fifth heart is an extra trick and compensates for his having only one queen. That brings us to twelve tricks, and a diamond ruff provides our thirteenth. Seven notrump is only slightly better than a finesse. So seven hearts looks like the right spot.

If trumps break, I can draw three rounds of trumps and ruff a diamond. What if they don't break? Then I will need to take the slight risk that someone has a singleton diamond. I can play ace and king of diamonds, then ruff the third diamond high. 

I win the spade lead in dummy and test trumps by cashing the heart king. Everyone follows, so I claim.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A K 5
K 10 4 3
K 7
♣ A K 6 2


WEST
Robot
♠ 10 8 4
8 7 6
10 6 3 2
♣ Q 8 3


EAST
Robot
♠ J 9 6 2
9
Q 9 8 4
♣ 10 7 5 4


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q 7 3
A Q J 5 2
A J 5
♣ J 9


48%. It's unusual to get below average for bidding and making a grand slam, but a plurality of the field bid 7NT. Since 13 out of 33 pairs did not reach any grand, the 7NT bidders did not have good odds for their gamble. If 7NT makes, they gain 9.5 matchpoints--half a matchpoint for each of the 19 other pairs in a grand. (It makes no difference which grand. The gain is half a matchpoint either way.) If 7NT goes down, they lose those same 9.5 matchpoints plus an addition 13 for the pairs not in a grand for a total of 22.5 matchpoints. So they are risking more than two to one on a coin toss. 

Of course we don't know it's a coin toss until we see partner's hand. Either minor-suit jack could have been a queen instead, making 7NT cold. Or the diamond jack might have been the spade jack, making it virtually hopeless. It's hard to say what the odds were at the time I had to make my decision. But I doubt they were two to one, so I'm happy with my choice.

Sunday, January 2, 2022

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 11

Board 11
Neither vulnerable

♠ Q J 9 7 3   A K   --  ♣ K Q J 10 9 7  

Some would open with one spade, believing that immediately showing the fifth spade takes precedence over showing the relative length of your suits. But I believe your suit length is critical. If you can be tapped out, the six-card suit can play many tricks better than the five-card suit. So I bid one club. LHO bids one diamond, partner bids one spade, and RHO raises to two diamonds.

I have three losers: the ace and king of spades and the ace of clubs. If partner has two of those cards, I want to be in slam. Since we have at least nine spades, I'm willing to risk the five level to investigate. So opening one club worked out well. If I had opened one spade and partner had raised, I would have to worry we had a five-three fit, in which case the possibility of a four-one spade break would make reaching the five level off two keycards dangerous.

How can I find out if partner has the cards I need? Five diamonds as exclusion Blackwood would be nice, but that's not part of the robots' methods. I could bid Blackwood and hope that, if partner has two keycards, the diamond ace isn't one of them. But that's probably against the odds. Maybe the thing to do is to trust partner to use his judgment. If I splinter with four diamonds, then bid five diamonds over partner's probable four spades, will he do the right thing? I think he should. If he's looking at two working keycards, he should reason as follows: "Partner might gamble on my having one keycard for a one-level response, but gambling on my having two would be exceedingly optimistic. If he can't make slam opposite this hand, then we would be going down at the five level if I were missing one of these cards. That's a risk he wouldn't have taken."

So he should make the right decision with two keycards. What is the risk he will bid slam with only one? He will know all his diamond honors are useless. The only other cover card he can have is the heart queen, and it's hard to see how that card is critical in this auction. I don't think he is likely to bid slam with only one working keycard and the heart queen.

In general, I don't like to splinter then bid again. Splinters, in theory, are limit bids and should therefore surrender captaincy. But, while I like following such rules as much as the next pedant, sometimes you have to make exceptions. Four diamonds, then five diamonds, should accomplish exactly what I want.

I bid four diamonds; partner bids four spades. I bid five diamonds; partner bids five spades, and I give up. West leads the heart four. 


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q J 9 7 3
A K
--
♣ K Q J 10 9 7






SOUTH
Robot
♠ K 8 6 5 2
J 8 3
10 7 4 3
♣ 6


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot

1 ♣ 1 1 ♠
2 4 Pass 4 ♠
Pass 5 Pass 5 ♠
(All pass)


I fully approve of partner's one spade bid, but I'm a little surprised he made it. I've seen the robots pass as responder with similar hands. 

East plays the five of hearts under my ace, and I drop the three. That was sloppy. I know from the auction that West can't have a doubleton heart. And now East knows that also. I should have played the eight, concealing the card below West's lead, to retain the possibility that the lead was from a doubleton. I can't imagine how it could matter on this deal, but the next sloppy play might. I need to wake up before I go down in a contract that appears to be cold.

How might I go down? The only bad thing I can see happening is someone's getting a surprise club ruff. Say, for example, I lead a spade to the king and ace. West plays a club to the ace, and East returns a club. I ruff and get overruffed with the ten. To avoid that, I need to lead the spade queen from dummy. That will neutralize the spade ten unless trumps are three-zero.

It turns out they are. I lead the spade queen, East pitches the diamond five, and West plays the spade four. Am I in trouble if West has a stiff club? If I lead a spade to the king, West can win, lead a club to his partner's ace, and overruff the club return with his ten. If I lead the spade jack from dummy, he gets a trump promotion instead of an overruff. What if I lead a club myself now? East wins and plays another club. I can ruff with the king and lead a spade toward the jack. Yes, that works.

I lead the king of clubs. No worries. West has the ace. He wins and returns a heart, and I claim.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q J 9 7 3
A K
--
♣ K Q J 10 9 7


WEST
Robot
♠ A 10 4
9 7 6 4
Q 8 6
♣ A 3 2


EAST
Robot
♠ --
Q 10 5 2
A K J 9 5 2
♣ 8 5 4


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K 8 6 5 2
J 8 3
10 7 4 3
♣ 6


Plus 450 is worth 69%. Some players blasted six spades. If you're going to do that, surely you should bid Blackwood first and at least avoid slam if partner has only one keycard. While bidding Blackwood with a void is not advisable, it's still better than simply blasting.

A number of players did bid Blackwood and stopped in five spades. One effect of that decision was that it induced West to lead a diamond, since he is not privy to your void. While my handling of the spade suit turned out not to matter, it does matter if dummy is tapped with a diamond at trick one. Now if you carelessly lead a spade to the king, you go down, since West can tap dummy twice more to promote his spade ten. This, in fact, happened to a few declarers.

I'm not sure why learning about the diamond void steered West away from a diamond lead. You know declarer is off two aces since you are looking at them. Would he really drive to the five level with a heart loser as well? A heart lead can hardly be productive. But that ace-ten third of spades might be an annoyance if you attack the trump suit with diamond taps. So learning about the void should make a diamond lead even more attractive.