BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 6 4  ♥ K  ♦ J 8 4 3  ♣ K J 9 8

Two passes to one heart on my right. I double, partner bids two spades, and RHO passes. I have fifteen support points for spades (counting the heart king as worthless), and partner's two-spade bid, according to the tool tip, shows 9-12. That's means my hand is worth an invitation. 

Does that look right? What do I need for game? Queen fifth of spades, ace doubleton of diamonds, queen of clubs? That's a minimum two spade bid, and that looks like a fine game. If he has only four spades, however, the hand could prove awkward. To come to ten tricks, we will probably need to ruff two hearts in my hand or two diamonds in partner's hand. In an eight-card fit, managing those ruffs and still having the communication to draw the last trump and cash my club winners will not be easy. So I'm certainly not worth four spades. Even three might be too high opposite a four-card spade suit. But I have to invite. Any time he has five spades, game rates to have a shot. 

I bid three spades. Partner passes.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 4 ♥ K ♦ J 8 4 3 ♣ K J 9 8
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 9 3 ♥ 9 7 5 2 ♦ A 9 7 ♣ Q 10

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
1 ♥	Double	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♠	(All pass)

West leads the heart queen--king--ace--deuce. There are only 16 HCP missing. If East has the heart ace, West should have everything else.

Partner had only four spades, but fortunately he has the club ten, which solidifies the suit. I have four spade trucks, three club tricks, and the diamond ace. One heart ruff is all I need to come to nine tricks. Or is it? I have no entry to dummy's clubs outside the trump suit. So if trumps are four-one, I can't both ruff a heart and run the clubs. Maybe I should try for two hearts ruffs in dummy? In that case, two club tricks are enough. If fact, if I can score six trump tricks, one club trick is enough. I may wind up playing the hand on a crossruff, ruffing dummy's club winners.

I can't formulate a more specific plan until I see how the defense proceeds. At trick two, East shifts to the deuce of diamonds. I play the seven, and West wins with the queen. He now shifts to the seven of spades. 

Paradoxically, leading trumps is often the wrong defense if it appears declarer may embark on a crossruff.  What it frequently does is pickle partner's trumps spots, making declarer's trumps high and making the crossruff easier. Unless you can lead enough rounds of trumps actually to stop ruffs, you are better off staying away from the trump suit. 

East plays the spade ten, and I win with the queen (leaving open the possibility from West's perspective that East has the jack). I now have two high trumps and one low trump in each hand. The outstanding spades are 852. 

I'm still not sure whether to crossruff or try to keep control and run clubs. But either line requires me to knock out the club ace, so I might as well do that now. I lead the queen of clubs. West plays the four; East, the five. 

It's a bit surprising West ducked this, since he doesn't know I have the ten. I suspect he has ace fourth and is ducking in the hope his partner has a doubleton. If so, he can give him a ruff if I continue the suit. In any event, I doubt very much he ducked with ace doubleton. That means I don't have to worry about the third round of clubs being ruffed on my left, which was the danger in going after a crossruff.

I play the ten of clubs--ace--nine--seven. West continues with the club deuce, and East follows with the six. West was indeed aiming to give his partner a club ruff. I pitch the nine of diamonds, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 ♥ -- ♦ J 8 4 ♣ K
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 9 3 ♥ 9 7 5 ♦ A ♣ --

If I can score the diamond ace and six trump tricks, I make the rest for an overtrick. I lead a diamond to my ace. East plays the six; West the ten. I know West has the diamond queen left. So He began with at least one spade, three diamonds, and three clubs. That leaves him with at most six hearts, so East must have a heart left. That means I can afford to ruff a heart small. Then I can play a diamond. If East follows, I ruff with the three, knowing West must follow with the queen, and finish with a high crossruff. What if East ruffs in to uppercut me? If he ruffs in with the five, I overruff with the nine. The missing trumps are now the eight and deuce. If East has both of them, I have the jack and three in my hand as a tenace over them. If West has a trump left, it doesn't matter. He still has a diamond, so can't overruff. There is no way the opponents can prevent me from scoring the last four tricks on a crossruff. 

I ruff a heart in dummy and play a diamond. East follows. I ruff small and claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 4 ♥ K ♦ J 8 4 3 ♣ K J 9 8
WEST Robot ♠ 7 ♥ Q J 10 8 3 ♦ K Q 10 ♣ A 4 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ 10 8 5 2 ♥ A 6 4 ♦ 6 5 2 ♣ 7 6 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 9 3 ♥ 9 7 5 2 ♦ A 9 7 ♣ Q 10

86% for plus 170, I was actually the only one to play three spades. On the same auction, 11 pairs bid four spades (most of them going down) and ten passed two spades. That's tells me my judgment was probably right. When half the field drives to game and the other half doesn't even show interest, the wisdom of crowds suggests the hand is probably worth an invitation.

The point about staying off the trump suit when declarer threatens a crossruff is worth noting. In this case, it probably didn't matter, but it did give me less to think about. I could rest easier once the spade ten was no longer a threat. 

An initial trump lead, however, would have been a different matter. Now East can continue with a second trump when he is in with the heart ace and hold me to nine tricks. Singleton trump leads have a bad name. But I have noticed they are often right against a four-four fit. I would lead a trump from West's hand with softer clubs. But with A432, it's not so clear that a crossruff is in the works. Tapping dummy to kill entries to the club suit may be a better plan, so I agree with West's lead.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 3

Board 3
Their side vulnerable

♠ Q 9  ♥ A J 10 3  ♦ K 5 2  ♣ A Q 3 2

I open one notrump in first seat. Partner transfers to spades and bids three notrump, which I pass. West leads the four of diamonds

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 6 4 3 ♥ K Q 4 ♦ A 7 ♣ 10 8 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 ♥ A J 10 3 ♦ K 5 2 ♣ A Q 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

The diamond three is missing. So the lead could be fourth best from a five-card suit or lowest from a three- or four-card suit. Less likely (though not so unlikely as against humans), it could be from shortness.

I have seven top tricks. I can try to develop two more in spades with the club finesse in reserve if that fails. The percentage play in spades is to lead a spade to the nine. If spades are three-three, it's a toss-up which hand to finesse for the jack. If the suit is four-two, however, you must hope for jack doubleton on your right.

But the threat of losing three diamonds tricks and two spade tricks means the percentage play in spades isn't the only consideration. I must also worry about tempo. I would like to lose the lead only once, or, failing that, lose the lead the second time to the hand with only three diamonds. At this point, that hand is more likely to be East. If I lead a spade to queen. I may be able to finesse West for the spade jack later, not caring whether the finesse wins or loses. 

There are other advantages to this line as well. If I lead a spade to the nine and it loses to the jack, I still have only seven tricks. If I lead a spade to the queen, I'll have eight. Once I have eight tricks in the bag, I have a variety of ways to go after trick nine. I can finesse the spade. I can finesse the club. Or I can try for some kind of end play. It all depends on my read of the hand. As Reese once pointed out, having eight cashing tricks in three notrump leaves you in a strong position. There is almost always some way to find a ninth.

I play the diamond ace, East plays the six, and I play the five. (Better than the deuce, which might clarify the diamond count for East.) I still haven't seen the three.

I lead the spade three--deuce--queen--ace. With some holdings, West might have ducked to retain his entry. I need to keep that in mind in case I have to guess the end position. But I must also keep in mind that the robots will duck less often than human experts. They won't duck if it might lose double dummy (for example, with ace-empty third), whereas a human expert might, assuming that you are unlikely to continue with a low spade to the king.

West continues with the nine of diamonds and East plays the ten. It's still not 100% clear who, if anyone, has five diamonds. The four might have been from a five-card suit, or it might also have been lowest from 984. Although that would give East QJ1063, and he might have played the queen at trick one from that holding. In any event, I need to duck this. If they continue diamonds, I'll make my final assessment of who is more likely to have five. If I think it's West, I can safely finesse in spades. If I think it's East, I may decide to play on clubs

I duck. East continues with the diamond jack. I win with the king, and West plays the queen. The eight was the right play, silly robot. I know you didn't block the suit by continuing the nine from Q94. So I now know that if anyone has five diamonds, it's you. That means it's safe for me to take the spade finesse.

I pitch the club six from dummy and lead the nine of spades--seven--four--eight. I play a heart to dummy and cash the spade king. Everyone follows, and I claim.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 6 4 3 ♥ K Q 4 ♦ A 7 ♣ 10 8 6
WEST Robot ♠ A J 7 ♥ 9 8 5 ♦ Q 9 8 4 3 ♣ J 5		EAST Robot ♠ 8 5 2 ♥ 7 6 2 ♦ J 10 6 ♣ K 9 7 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 ♥ A J 10 3 ♦ K 5 2 ♣ A Q 3 2

Plus 660 is worth 78%. Some went down by leading a spade to the nine at trick two. We've already discussed why that line is wrong. Others held themselves to four by ducking the first diamond in both hands. Since the four can't be from a six-card suit, there is no reason to do that. Those who did duck the first round got a club shift from East at trick two. When they ducked this to West's jack, they could no longer score eleven tricks. 

One person made six. Obviously you can. Knock out the spade ace as I did, then win the the second diamond, run the spades, and take a club finesse at the end. I have to admit I didn't even consider that line. But if I had, I would have rejected it. Risking the contract in hope of finding a three-three break with two finesses working doesn't seem like a good idea. I checked the hand records to see if declarer had reason to believe this was going to work. It turns out he won the opening diamond lead with the king in his hand. After that, the play was perfectly reasonable. Having lost the option to duck the second diamond, you sort of fall into making six.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K 10 9 2  ♥ A 4  ♦ 3  ♣ K Q J 8 5

I open one spade, and partner bids one notrump. I'm sure some will bid three clubs with this hand, but it's not worth a game force. I bid two clubs. Partner bids two notrump.

We could certainly have a club slam. Club ace, heart king, spade queen. That leaves two or three HCP for wastage in diamonds. If three clubs were forcing, I would bid it. But it isn't. Three hearts would show a three-card suit, since partner could still have five hearts. So the only way to investigate slam is to bid four clubs. I would do so if we had some way to stop in four notrump. But the robots play most four notrump calls as Blackwood. If I bid four clubs, the only games available to us will be four spades or five clubs.

In most slam decisions, half a board is at stake. If you do the right thing, you gain half a matchpoint from every other pair. If you do the wrong thing, you lose half a matchpoint to every other pair--regardless of what the other pairs do. So it's worth bidding a slam if it is at least 50% to succeed. In this case, however, once we bid past three notrump, the odds might favor going on to slam even if it rates to be poor. 

Let's say we judge that a third of the field will play three notrump, and let's say we judge it will make at least four. The rest of the field plays either five or six clubs. Where do I stand if I bid four clubs and partner raises to five? If I pass and I'm right, I gain a half a matchpoint from two thirds of the field, in other words, one third of a board, If I go on to six and I'm right, I gain a half a matchpoint from two thirds of the field and a full matchpoint from the third that stopped in three notrump, which comes to two thirds of a board. In other words, bidding slam is odds on so long I think I have one chance in three of making it. 

If I didn't think I had one chance in three of making slam, I wouldn't be trying for it in the first place. So as a practical matter, unless we manage to stop in four spades, bidding four clubs is tantamount to driving to slam. Am I willing to do that? Hardly. This hand is worth a slam invitation, but it's not worth a slam drive. Since, essentially, I have no way to invite, I think the percentage action is to bid three notrump.

I do so, and everyone passes.West leads the diamond six. East takes his ace and I claim. 

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 9 2 ♥ A 4 ♦ 3 ♣ K Q J 8 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 7 5 4 ♥ Q 10 7 ♦ 9 8 6 ♣ 10 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 8 3 ♥ K J 9 5 3 ♦ A 7 4 2 ♣ 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ 8 6 2 ♦ K Q J 10 5 ♣ A 7 4 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

Six clubs would go down on a heart lead, but then so would three notrump. Even looking at partner's hand, I"m not sure what the right contract is at matchpoints.

It turns out every one who bid slam made it. Still, plus 690 is worth 65%, because quite a few pairs reached five clubs on auctions like

1 ♠	1 NT
3 ♣	4 ♣
5 ♣

If you're going to jump shift, you should at least follow through and bid four hearts when partner raises. That shouldn't be a cue-bid. When you have bid two suits and make a slam try by bidding a third, it should show a fragment and suggest shortness in the fourth suit. Sorting out the control situation is usually less important than judging if the hands fit well. Yes, if you have some freakish hand with a heart void and two small diamonds, you would rather be playing that four hearts is a cue-bid and denies a diamond control. But such hands come up rarely and your methods shouldn't cater to them. Even if you bid four hearts, however, you won't--or shouldn't--reach slam. With KQJTx of diamonds, partner won't be excited by your four-heart bid and will simply bid five clubs. 

Note that when deciding whether to raise five clubs to six in this auction, you do not face the same considerations I speculated about in my auction. You have (unwisely in my opinion) forced to game. Partner has shown nothing more than a minimum response. There is no reason to believe three notrump is making or that the field will be there. Some pairs might even be playing two clubs. So choosing to pass five club is perfectly reasonable.

Six pairs did reach six clubs, but none on any kind of intelligent auction. They overbid with three clubs on the second round, then overbid again by driving to slam when partner raised. For all they knew, five clubs was going down. In short, no one had a good auction, including me. Everyone guessed; some guessed better than others. It's a difficult hand in standard methods. 

For what it's worth, nine out of 28 pairs were in three notrump, so my estimate of one third was pretty close. What I didn't anticipate (although perhaps I should have) was that two pairs played three clubs. Presumably they forgot to check whether their three-club rebid over two notrump was forcing or not. 

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

On to the next tournament.

♠ A 4  ♥ Q J 10  ♦ 8 6 4  ♣ K Q 9 8 7

Partner passes, and RHO opens one diamond. Three small diamonds is a danger signal and argues for passing. But I do have a decent suit, and a two-club overcall takes away the whole one-level. It could work out badly, but I bid two clubs. LHO bids two spades, and RHO bids two notrump. LHO bids three spades, and RHO raises to game. Partner leads the deuce of clubs

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ A K J 5 3 ♣ A 10 6
		EAST Phillip ♠ A 4 ♥ Q J 10 ♦ 8 6 4 ♣ K Q 9 8 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
Pass	1 ♦	2 ♣	2 ♠
Pass	2 NT	Pass	3 ♠
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

Declarer plays low from dummy. It doesn't appear there is much to this deal. I just win the club and shift to a heart. We get one club trick and whatever heart and spade tricks we have coming to us. Is any other defense conceivable? Could partner have a stiff diamond? That would give declarer a 6-1-4-2 shape, leaving partner with ace-sixth or king-sixth of hearts. That doesn't seem likely. And even if that were the case, declarer wouldn't be ducking this trick. So a heart shift it is. I play the club queen and declarer follows with the jack. Now queen of hearts--ace--five--six.

Declarer continues with the deuce of spades to the seven and eight. I take my ace and lead the jack of hearts--king-- deuce--seven. Not sure what partner's echo was all about. I would play partner's five as attitude myself, saying, "You are on the right track. If you are contemplating any other defense, such as playing me for a singleton club, it isn't going to work." But I'm sure that's not what partner meant. Perhaps he was giving count?

Declarer plays the queen of spades to partner's king, and partner leads the heart three to my ten. It holds. Declarer has the rest. Down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ A K J 5 3 ♣ A 10 6
WEST Robot ♠ K 7 5 ♥ 5 4 3 2 ♦ Q 10 7 ♣ 5 4 2		EAST Phillip ♠ A 4 ♥ Q J 10 ♦ 8 6 4 ♣ K Q 9 8 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 9 6 3 2 ♥ A K 9 ♦ 9 2 ♣ J 3

Plus 50 is worth 63%. It turns out the overcall, getting partner off to a club lead, was critical. Four spades made at those tables where my hand passed over one diamond.

Declarer could have made this by finessing in diamonds and pitching his heart, and at IMPs I presume he would do so. Should he have done so at matchpoints? The finesse gains if it works and diamonds are three-three. (It gains in other rare cases as well, such as when I have 

♠ A K  ♥ Q J x x  ♦ x x  ♣ K Q x x x.

But we'll ignore such cases for now and factor them back in if the decision is close.) The finesse loses if it fails and diamonds are not three-three. (If they are, he breaks even by taking his heart pitch.) If we assume the finesse is 50-50, the finesse criteria cancel out. So, on a comparative basis, the finesse is right if diamonds are three-three and wrong if it isn't. If declarer judges a fair percentage of the field is in game and is getting a club lead, then settling for down one was the percentage play. 

But hold on. Why was declarer even in this position? There is no reason to duck the club. Just go up with the ace and start trumps. The defense has only two trump entries, so they can't set up the heart trick and cash it in time. You can decide in the end position whether to risk the diamond finesse or not. In any event, now all you need is the finesse--or possibly a squeeze. You don't need a three-three diamond break as well.

There is one reason to duck the first trick. It gives you the option of hooking the club ten for a pitch. While it is quite unlikely I would have bid two clubs with queen fifth, perhaps he would have tried this if I had played the club king at trick one.

This time it would have made no difference, but the club queen was still an extremely lazy play. There is nothing for the defense to do except continue hearts whenever we get in. So partner can't possibly care whether I have two club honors or not. If the club jack were in dummy, the falsecard would be trivial (and therefore less convincing). With the jack in declarer's hand, the potential gain from falsecarding doesn't jump out at you. But it needn't. Any time you see that a false card can't cost, you should make it; it's not necessary to see how it might gain. My first thought when dummy hit was, "It doesn't appear there is much to this deal." That's often a dangerous thought. Here, it lulled be into carelessness.

Lowenthal was almost always alert to such situations. We once defended a four spade contract where John had opened one heart and I had shown four-card support. I led a heart, dummy hit with Jxx, and John had AKQxx. Since partner will soon know what you have, any decent defender would do what he could to conceal his holding from declarer, making it more difficult for him to place the remaining honors. Most would try a wimpy solution, like winning with the king and continuing with the ace. But a good declarer knows you might do this, so he won't pay much attention. John, however, was no wimp. He won with the ace and continued with a low one. I held my breath. Might declarer have some loser he has no way to avoid? If so, he might pitch it, figuring it can't hurt. Declarer thought this over a while, then ruffed and proceeded to misplace a critical card and go down. 

Had John somehow surmised that declarer had no unavoidable loser to pitch? I thought about the problem from his point of view at trick one and didn't see how he could have. 

"That was a risky play," I said. 

"If it were riskless," said John, "it wouldn't work."