Sunday, July 4, 2010

Match 2 - Board 10

Board 10
Both sides vulnerable

♠ K Q 7 A Q 10 6 Q 5 2 ♣ J 5 4

RHO opens one spade in first seat. Some would double with this hand--you do have support for all the unbids suits after all--but I prefer to be cautious when I hold three cards in my opponent's suit, especially when I have secondary values there. In my view, there are two bad things that can happen if you double with this hand: (1) You catch partner with spade shortness (so that your spade honors are wasted on offense); or (2) you don't catch partner with spade shortness (so that your spade honors are getting ruffed away). Since my hand isn't good enough to overcall with one notrump, I don't see much point in bidding.

I pass, and so does everyone else. What should I lead?

The king of spades has a certain appeal. It might give away a spade trick, but it doesn't have to. Even the ten of spades in partner's hand may be enough to prevent that. And, if it does give away a trick, I might get that trick back by stopping a ruff in dummy. Furthermore, it's not as if I have a perfectly safe lead in a different suit. Dummy will be short of entries, so any lead might be taking a finesse for declarer that he would be unable to take himself. OK. I've talked myself into it. I lead the king of spades.


NORTH
♠ 9 6
8 7 5 4 3 2
J 3
♣ K 10 2


WEST
♠ K Q 7
A Q 10 6
Q 5 2
♣ J 5 4




West North East South
1 ♠
(All pass)


Dummy plays the six; partner, the deuce; and declarer wins with the ace. I think I'm happy with my lead. We may have stopped a diamond ruff. And the sight of dummy would have made me nervous after either minor-suit lead. The opponents, by the way, are playing an Acol variation. So South might have only four spades, and he might have a strong notrump.

I'm anticipating a low diamond lead by declarer. I think I'm going to duck it to give partner a chance to win and play a spade in case he has ten-eight. But, before I've completely made up my mind about that, declarer plays the five of spades. Could it be right to hop? Yes. If partner began with jack-eight fourth and I duck this to partner's jack, declarer will be able to duck out my queen. But it could obviously be wrong to hop, and I have no idea what to lead if I win this trick. So I play the seven. Partner takes dummy's nine with his jack.

Partner shifts to the jack of hearts, declarer plays the king, and I win with the ace. I continue with the queen of hearts, and partner pitches the three of clubs. Partner would be unlikely to discard a club from a four-card suit, so I suspect he began with either three or five.

I suppose I could construct a hand where it's right to continue with the ten of hearts. But partner's low club suggests that dummy's club king is an entry, so a heart continuation is surely wrong if delcarer has five spades. And it might be wrong if he has four. I know partner has a high diamond honor (or six small), since declarer would have played ace-king and ruffed a diamond in dummy otherwise. If partner has the ace, a diamond shift is safe. If he has the king, perhaps he has the ten as well. I shift to the deuce of diamonds--three--ace--four.

Partner returns the eight of diamonds--nine--queen--jack. The eight of diamonds should be a count card, so partner should have begun with ace-ten-eight-seven-six. If I'm correct that he would not have discarded from a four-card club suit, that gives him an original pattern of 4-1-5-3, leaving declarer with 4-2-3-4. Declarer has the spade ace, the heart king, the diamond king, and the club ace: 14 high-card points. Since he didn't open with a weak notrump, he must have the club queen as well, so I now know declarer's hand:

♠ A 10 x x K 9 K 9 4 ♣ A Q x x

Declarer has no side losers left. All we can score is trump tricks. If I lead the ten of hearts to tap him, we will take two trump tricks for down one.

I lead the ten of hearts. Partner pitches the eight of clubs, and declarer ruffs with the eight of spades. He plays the six of clubs to the king, then leads the seven of hearts. Partner ruffs with the three, and declarer overruffs with the ten. Declarer plays the queen of clubs. Partner ruffs with the four spades, and we still have my spade queen to score for down one.


NORTH
♠ 9 6
8 7 5 4 3 2
J 3
♣ K 10 2


WEST
♠ K Q 7
A Q 10 6
Q 5 2
♣ J 5 4


EAST
♠ J 4 3 2
J
A 10 8 7 6
♣ 9 8 3


SOUTH
♠ A 10 8 5
K 9
K 9 4
♣ A Q 7 6


Something is nagging me about this end position. Finally I figure it out. I'm an idiot! I was double-dummy, and I misdefended. Find my mistake before reading on.

Instead of playing the ten of hearts, I should have continued with a third round of diamonds, establishing two winners in partner's hand. Declarer will pitch a club from dummy, reaching this position:


NORTH
♠ --
8 7 5 4
--
♣ K 10


WEST
♠ Q
10 6
--
♣ J 5 4


EAST
♠ 4 3
--
10 7
♣ 9 8


SOUTH
♠ 10 8
--
--
♣ A Q 7 6


Declarer will presumably play a trump to my queen, pitching a heart from dummy.  Now I play the ten of hearts, allowing partner to pitch a second club. Declarer can't afford to ruff this, or he will finish down three. He must pitch a club himself, and we have our setting trick. I now continue with my last heart. Partner lets dummy win this, pitching his last club. If declarer could get to his hand to draw partner's last trump, he could claim. But he can't. He can postpone the inevitable by leading dummy's last heart and pitching one more club.  But he doesn't have enough hearts to pitch all his clubs.  So, eventually, he must lead a club, allowing partner to ruff with his four of spades for down two.

Of course, declarer would have enough hearts in dummy to pitch all his clubs if he hadn't discarded one when I won the queen of spades. Perhaps he would do better to pitch a club instead?  No. If he does that, I don't play the heart ten.  I play a club. If he wins this trick in dummy, he's down three.  If he wins in his hand to draw partner's trump, I get the last two tricks for down two.  It turns out dummy is squeezed when I win the queen of spades.

Why didn't I see this? Whenever I have a blind spot, I try to extrapolate the general principle that I overlooked. Yes, in this case, I could have simply worked the position out card for card, but I may someday encounter a similar position where I have less information. So it's worthwhile to find the principle involved.

I suppose the basic idea is that I lost a tempo by tapping declarer right away. Once dummy's hearts were established, declarer didn't need to continue drawing trumps, and my queen of spades was no longer an entry. Playing diamonds does not deprive me of my chance to tap declarer, because I must gain the lead with the spade queen. But tapping him immediately does deprive me of my chance to establish diamonds. The reason the extra tempo gains a trick is quite complicated. But that part isn't really important. Had I thought about the position in these terms, I wouldn't need to think any further to see that a diamond continuation can't do any worse than playing the heart ten and might do better.

Luckily, the lost trick doesn't matter. We are the only pair not to defend two hearts making, so this is a top. It's embarassing how lucky I've been in this match. Not only am I playing against a pair who isn't playing strong notrumps, but I'm sitting in the right seat. Had I held my opponent's cards, I would have opened one spade and would have wound up with a zero instead of a top.

Or maybe not. It occurs to me that some players would have doubled one spade. I wonder if Jack is one of them. I replay the board sitting in RHO's seat. I open one spade. Jack doubles. Partner passes, East bids two diamonds, and partner balances with two hearts, ending the auction.

So I needn't be too embarassed. At least I can accept some responsibility for this result from my decision to pass over one spade. The strange thing is: Had I known at the time that passing would result in defending one spade and doubling would result in defending two hearts, I probably would have doubled.

Score on Board 10: +100 (12 MP)
Total: 94 (78.3%)

Current rank: 1st

3 comments:

  1. "Partner returns the eight of diamonds--nine--four--jack."

    I think you meant "Partner returns the eight of diamonds--nine--queen--jack."

    Great analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I corrected it. Thanks. What did writers do before they had hundreds of instant proofreaders?

    ReplyDelete
  3. In answer to your question Phil, we made bunches of mistakes and have them preserved for posterity in features such as 'Thats ridiculous' in BW. Hugh Darwen's site has some choice ones too.
    Time for a return of that feature?

    ReplyDelete