Board 36
Both sides vulnerable
Both sides vulnerable
| ♠ J 10 9 3 ♥ K Q 9 8 3 ♦ 7 3 ♣ 9 7 |
Partner opens one spade, and RHO overcalls with two diamonds. I'd like to bid a pre-emptive three spades, but our convention card says that's a limit raise, so I have to settle for two spades. I suppose it's just as well I was prohibited from bidding three, because two spades ends the auction. West leads the ace of diamonds.
| NORTH
♠ J 10 9 3 ♥ K Q 9 8 3 ♦ 7 3 ♣ 9 7 |
||
| SOUTH
♠ A K 8 5 ♥ 7 2 ♦ 6 4 2 ♣ A K Q 2 |
| West | North | East | South |
| Pass | 1 ♠ | ||
| 2 ♦ | 2 ♠ | (All pass) |
East plays the nine of diamonds, and I play the deuce. West continues with the king of diamonds, East dropping the ten, then the queen of diamonds. I doubt West sold out to two spades with six solid diamonds. But if I ruffed low and he did, I'd feel pretty silly. It looks as if I can afford to ruff with the jack, so I do. East follows with the diamond jack.
If East was unwilling to offer a single raise with jack third of diamonds, he can't have much. Surely he doesn't have the heart ace. (Although only a few deals ago I made an assumption like that that proved to be wrong). It's also suspicious that West sold out. It's seldom a good idea to let the opponents play at the two level when you know they have a fit. West would surely have balanced with spade shortness, so I have a strong suspicion he has three spades. (Against five-card majorites, three small spades would be a plus for balancing, since you can infer shortness in partner's hand. But when the opponents might be in a four-three fit, as is the case here, balancing with three trumps is more dangerous. This is one of the advantages of playing four-card majors: It makes the opponents' life more difficult in low-level competitive auctions.)
I have to play a heart sooner or later. It's hard to see the harm in getting the play out of the way early. I have to confess to being a little bit lazy here. I'm relying more on instinct than on analysis. I haven't actually constructed a deal where an immediate spade finesse presents any danger. It just looks more convenient to play a heart first.
I play a club--four--king (the most ambiguous of my three choices)--three. Someone gave false count, probably because he has a doubleton honor. My guess is East has five and West has the doubleton. If it were the other way around, West would have balanced. So it looks as if West is 3-3-5-2. I play the deuce of hearts--ace--three--four. East's four is consistent with my picture. It appears he has three hearts (unless he also has a doubleton honor).
West plays the ten of clubs--nine--five--ace. The obvious play now is to ruff my deuce of clubs and float the ten of spades. Is there anything wrong with this plan? East can't really have four spades. But West can. What if he's 4-2-5-2? (This requires East to have given false count in hearts, but that's hardly impossible.) If I lead a low club, West will pitch his heart. Now, when I lose the spade finesse to him, he can play another diamond. If I ruff in the dummy, I can't get to my hand to cash the club queen. If I ruff in my hand, I'm tapped out and can't score my heart trick.
Can I cash the heart before ruffing a club? If I do, then how do I get off dummy? A spade to the ace? To the eight? The club shift, killing the entry to my hand, was a nice play on West's part. A heart continuation would have made the hand easy for me. Cashing the heart might work, but it's complicated. I'll come back to this line later if necessary. First, let me see what happens if I lead the club queen instead of a low one. If that works, I may save myself a headache.
If I lead the club queen and West pitches a heart, I'm OK. I can continue with the club deuce, ruffing in dummy, and take a spade finesse. Now if West wins and leads a diamond, I can ruff in dummy and pitch my heart, leaving me with high trumps in my hand.
The danger in leading the club queen is that West ruffs it. Can I handle that? I overruff and cash the king of hearts, reaching this position:
| NORTH
♠ 9 3 ♥ Q 9 8 ♦ -- ♣ -- |
||
| SOUTH
♠ A K 8 5 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 2 |
Now I lead the heart queen and pitch my club if East follows. If West began with queen fourth of spades, he ruffs with his natural trump trick, and I have the rest. If West follows as well, then he was 3-3-5-2. The remaining spades are two-two. So, again, I have the rest. If East ruffs the queen of hearts, then West was 2-4-5-2. I can overruff, ruff the club in dummy, and claim. This line loses a trick unnecessarily only if East began with a singleton queen of spades and West began with four small. I doubt I can find a line that does any better.
I lead the queen of clubs, and West pitches the five of diamonds. I continue with the deuce of clubs, and he ruffs with the four of spades. Now he ruffs? OK. Be that way. I overruff and finesse East for the spade queen. Making four.
| NORTH
♠ J 10 9 3 ♥ K Q 9 8 3 ♦ 7 3 ♣ 9 7 |
||
| WEST
♠ 4 2 ♥ A J 6 5 ♦ A K Q 8 5 ♣ 10 3 |
EAST
♠ Q 7 6 ♥ 10 4 ♦ J 10 9 ♣ J 8 6 5 4 | |
| SOUTH
♠ A K 8 5 ♥ 7 2 ♦ 6 4 2 ♣ A K Q 2 |
Is the field going to reach game? I doubt it. One notrump--two clubs--two spades--pass looks like the normal auction. But, when I check the scores, it appears I'm wrong. Four pairs did reach four spades. Fortunately, one declarer found a way to go down. I can't imagine how he did that. The other two pairs played a heart partscore, making two. They transfered to hearts rather than bid Stayman? Perhaps they were playing Puppet Stayman. Anyway, plus 170 is dead average.
Which brings up an interesting point. Game is roughly 50%. Normally you would think you should bid such a game or at least that it would be a toss-up whether to bid it or not. But I got six matchpoints when the game made, and I would have gotten twelve if it had gone down. So my expectation in avoiding game was nine matchpoints. Had I bid game, I would either share a top or share a bottom with the other pairs who reached game, so my expectation would be six matchpoints. Clearly the percentage action is to avoid game. But why?
The reason is that not everyone found the spade fit, which means simply playing spades at all gets you ahead of the field. I'm not sure how you could predict that on this particular deal, but it's a point worth remembering.
Score on Board 36: +170 (6 MP)
Total: 297 MP (68.8%)
Current rank: 1st
"Clearly the percentage action is to avoid game. But why?"
ReplyDeleteI've improved my matchpoint scores by staying out of these games. I won't say the answer is poor declarer play as much as declarer play is not uniformly excellent. Every declarer who can't make four even when it is there is a matchpoint for you if you stop short, whether or not game makes.
Can you judge when declarer play will be a factor? To some extent, yes, if you have multiple tenaces, don't accept partner's invitation. With a suit that may run without hard work, go to game even if the odds are only slightly in your favor. The other case where stopping is right is the one Phillip had here. If you know you are in the right strain, and that others won't be, stop immediately.
For example, yesterday I held S K8642 H A542 D --- C K953. LHO opened 1H non-vul against vul, and partner overcalled 2D. Uh Oh. Partner should have a good hand vulnerable, so LHO will pass. Now what do I do? I hate to bid in this situation, but passing then bidding Spades over a double will give partner a wrong picture. So I bid 2 Spades and crossed my fingers. Partner responded with 3 Clubs, opponents passing, and I passed too--for a top. Two other pairs found the Club fit, but apparently either didn't play it well, or more likely didn't have as friendly a defense.
There is also what I call the Ginny rule after a 31 HCP 6NT contract Ginny Rosytinis put me in. Once the spade finesse worked, there was a non-simultaneous double squeeze to make six. Ginny said after the hand, "I knew that you were the only one in the room who could make six."
I said, "At matchpoints, if I am the only one in the room who can make six, you don't need to bid it." Of course, Ginny kept putting me in those slams at IMPs, along with "impossible" 3NT contracts. She is also very good at finding the killing defense, if there is one, which is why we did a lot better at IMP events than matchpoints.