Board 60
Our side vulnerable
Our side vulnerable
| ♠ A 6 3 ♥ Q 6 3 2 ♦ A 5 ♣ J 9 8 2 |
Partner opens one diamond, I bid one heart, LHO overcalls with one spade, and partner doubles, showing three-card heart support. RHO bids two spades. Had he passed, two notrump would have been the obvious call. I'm less sanguine about our prospects of making three notrump after the raise, but no call other than two notrump appeals. Some players would double showing "cards," but I've never understood that approach. What does partner care that I have extra high cards? I've never figured out what he's supposed to do with that information. It seems to me the only thing a card-showing double accomplishes is that it makes the doubler feel better.
I bid two notrump, LHO passes, and partner bids three hearts. Three diamonds by him would be (or at least should be) a signoff. It's less clear what three clubs would be. I would play it as a scramble. I don't think opener should have to pass two notrump with a 1-3-5-4 minimum, knowing full well he's going down and might be able to make a partscore elsewhere. Three hearts, however, should be forcing. It makes no sense to run to a known four-three heart fit, bypassing potentially playable spots in the minors. So this should suggest that four hearts may be a better game than three notrump.
Ace third of spades opposite partner's presumed shortness suggests playing in hearts, but my weak hearts suggest playing in notrump. The right game probably depends on how many tricks we have ready to cash. Even eight cashing tricks may be enough, since we may have squeeze possibilities. But if we have to knock out aces in our side suits, hearts will probably be better. I bid three spades to express my own doubt. Partner bids four hearts. I pass, and LHO leads the king of clubs.
| NORTH
♠ 9 ♥ A 9 8 ♦ K Q J 9 3 ♣ A 10 5 4 |
||
| SOUTH
♠ A 6 3 ♥ Q 6 3 2 ♦ A 5 ♣ J 9 8 2 |
| West | North | East | South |
| Pass | 1 ♦ | Pass | 1 ♥ |
| 1 ♠ | Double1 | 2 ♠ | 2 NT |
| Pass | 3 ♥ | Pass | 3 ♠ |
| Pass | 4 ♥ | (All pass) | |
| 1Support double | |||
This is exactly the kind of hand I was hoping partner would bid three notrump with: interior solidity in diamonds and aces on the side. Of course, I'm not sure which game I would rather be in. If West has the king and queen of clubs as he appears to, I would guess that I want to be in three notrump when West has the heart king and in four hearts when East has it.
The club king is a strange lead. We've announced that spades is a weak spot, so it would seem like the logical suit to attack. I suspect West has club length. We are obviously in a shaky contract, so this is hardly the time to try a speculative lead from a short suit. My initial guess is that West is 5-2-2-4, which makes East 4-4-4-1.
Is finding East with the heart king sufficient to make this? Say I win the club ace and play a low heart. East hops with the king and switches to a spade. I take the ace, ruff a spade, cash the heart ace, play a diamond to my hand, and cash the heart queen. If hearts are three-three, I'm home. But if East has the long heart, I need him to follow to four diamonds. If he does, I can promote my last trump with the fifth round of diamonds: three hearts tricks, one ruff in dummy, four diamonds, and two black aces.
While I suspect East has four diamonds, I'd rather not have to count on it. Is there a better line? What if, after winning the spade ace, I immediately drive the club queen? East may get a ruff. But that's fine with me unless he has a doubleton trump, which seems almost impossible. I will have lost only three tricks, and I will have the rest.
What if West declines to give his partner a ruff? Suppose he wins the club queen and taps dummy with a spade. I ruff, ace of hearts, diamond to the ace, queen of hearts. If East has a high trump left, I play a diamond to the king, queen of diamonds pitching my last spade, and I'm home. Now all I need is for East to follow to two diamonds.
Can West tangle up my entries by winning the club queen and playing a diamond? That doesn't appear to present any insurmountable problems, but I may have to do some guessing about how the red suits split. I'll worry about that if that happens. A low heart toward my queen looks like my best start.
I play the club ace. East follows with the six, and I play the deuce. I play the eight of hearts, and East follows with the five. I wasn't expecting that. Why didn't he hop with the king? If we consider the heart suit in isolation, hopping with the king is the wrong play. But, if I were East, I would be disinclined to give declarer a tempo. For example, suppose this is the layout:
| NORTH
♠ 9 ♥ A 9 8 ♦ K Q J 9 3 ♣ A 10 5 4 |
||
| WEST
♠ A J x x x ♥ x x ♦ x x ♣ K Q x x |
EAST
♠ Q x x x ♥ K 10 x x ♦ x x x x ♣ x | |
| SOUTH
♠ K x x ♥ Q J x x ♦ A x ♣ J 9 x x |
It's right for East to duck if he knows I have the spade ace. He can no longer beat me by force, so he might as well hope I do something foolish in the trump suit. But how can he know I have the spade ace? He's not looking at my hand. In fact, if I were East, I would assume my partner had the spade ace from his failure to make the obvious spade lead.
Should I play low, trying to duck out a doubleton king on my left? If I'm right that hearts are two-four, then a priori West will hold the heart king one time in three. If I expect East to hop with the heart king more than half the time, playing low is my percentage play.
Are there any other clues? What about the auction? Perhaps West led a club because his spades were weak. If they are headed by the queen or jack, he might not have overcalled without the heart king. In addition, if I give East good spades, the heart king, and the singleton club I think he has, he might have bid something more aggressive than a simple raise.
What about my matchpoint odds? If West has the heart king, three notrump is making. (To keep his heart and club stoppers, West must pitch a spade on the run of the diamonds. The defense no longer has a fifth trick, so declarer can set up clubs.)
Let's make some simplifying assumptions:
(1) If I guess hearts, I'll make four hearts. If not, I'm down one.
(2) Those pairs who play three notrump will make it if West has the heart king and will go down one if East has it.
Under these assumptions, if I play the heart queen and I'm right, I gain one matchpoint against each pair in four hearts (either beating or tying them instead of tying or losing to them) and one matchpoint against each pair in three notrump (beating them, instead of tying them at down one). If I play low and I'm right, I gain one matchpoint against each pair in four hearts, but I gain two matchpoints against each pair in three notrump. Instead of losing to them by going down, I beat them by scoring 620. So playing low gains more when it's right. It's the Half-Dollar Principle in action.
The arguments for ducking this trick seem pretty compelling. I hope I can persuade partner of that fact if it doesn't work. I play the deuce.
West wins with the king. Yay! He cashes the club queen, and East pitches the four of spades. West continues with the seven of clubs. I play low from dummy. Instead of ruffing, East pitches the ten of spades, and I win in my hand with the jack. I guess East has a natural trump trick and sees no reason to ruff with it.
This is the position:
| NORTH
♠ 9 ♥ A 9 ♦ K Q J 9 3 ♣ 10 |
||
| SOUTH
♠ A 6 3 ♥ Q 6 3 ♦ A 5 ♣ 9 |
It's just as well I can't handle five-one trumps. Now I have nothing to think about. I play a heart to dummy's ace. West plays the four; East, the seven. I have pitches for both my spade losers, so there is no longer a need to ruff a spade in dummy. I play a heart back to my queen as West pitches the spade deuce, then concede a heart. Making four.
| NORTH
♠ 9 ♥ A 9 8 ♦ K Q J 9 3 ♣ A 10 5 4 |
||
| WEST
♠ Q 8 7 5 2 ♥ K 4 ♦ 10 8 ♣ K Q 7 3 |
EAST
♠ K J 10 4 ♥ J 10 7 5 ♦ 7 6 4 2 ♣ 6 | |
| SOUTH
♠ A 6 3 ♥ Q 6 3 2 ♦ A 5 ♣ J 9 8 2 |
One pair managed to make five clubs doubled. The defense must have slipped up to allow this contract to score. But that mistake wouldn't have been so costly if not for the double. Minus 600 would have been worth eight matchpoints, since there was a higher scoring game available, and plus 100 would have been worth 11. So the double cost eight matchpoints and stood to gain only one. As usual, doubling five of a minor was a poor bet.
Score on Board 60: +620 (8 MP)
Total: 476 (66.1 %)
Current rank: 1st
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