Sunday, December 11, 2011

Event 3 - Match 3 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q J 9 J 10 7 A 4 3 ♣ A 8 7 4

I open one notrump (12-14). Partner bids two hearts (a transfer to spades), and I bid two spades. Partner bids three hearts, a game force showing at least five-five in the majors. Even though I have a minimum in high cards, this is a terrific hand, especially given that I am limited by my failure to pre-accept. I have fillers in both of partner's suits and aces opposite his short suits. Even the distribution is a plus. While "4333" is often a poor distribution, it is actually a good distribution opposite a two-suiter. Despite what various point-count systems may tell you, when partner has two five-card or longer suits, it is usually better to be three-three in those suits than to be three-two (and much better than to be three-one). So I bid four spades to show extras.

Even if you generally play fast arrival (which I don't), fast-arrival should not apply when showing a preference. A simple preference can't promise support and a good hand, because it must frequently be made with a doubleton as a mark-time bid. Still, you need some way to show extras below game. Since the simple preference is not available for that purpose, it makes sense to assign that role to the jump preference. It is true that, in this particular auction (because opener is known to be balanced and because the three heart bid promises five), these considerations don't apply. Opener has no reason to bid three spades with a doubleton, so you could play fast arrival if you chose to. But ad hoc exceptions make me nervous. Since a jump preference should show extras in most auctions, you are less apt to have an accident if you make that a general rule.

Partner passes four spades, and LHO leads the jack of diamonds.


NORTH
Jack
♠ A K 5 3 2
K 9 8 5 3
Q 8
♣ 3






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ Q J 9
J 10 7
A 4 3
♣ A 8 7 4


West North East South
Nathanial Jack Marcus Phillip
1 NT
Pass 2 1 Pass 2 ♠
Pass 3 2 Pass 4 ♠
(All pass)
1Jacoby transfer
2Forcing to game with at least five-five in the majors

I play the diamond queen and East covers with the king. It appears I must lose a diamond trick and potentially two hearts tricks. As long as trumps are three-two, I'm cold. If they aren't, I probably need to find the heart queen onside, so I can establish hearts by losing the lead only once. Otherwise, I will be tapped out.

Ducking the diamond to deprive the opponents of communication seems like a good idea, although it's not entirely safe. If East shifts to a heart, and West takes the ace and continues hearts, I will duck, assuming the shift was from a singleton. If East has queen third, he can win and give his partner a ruff, and I will go down in a cold contract. But if East is clever enough to find that shift, he deserves to beat me. These communication-killing ducks are frequently necessary for reasons you can't foresee at trick one. So it's a good idea to deploy them as a matter of routine unless you see a serious danger.

I play the diamond three. East continues with the five of diamonds--ace--six--eight. The deuce is missing. Probably East began with king-five-deuce.

I cash the spade queen. (Not the jack. As a general rule, declarer should conceal his jacks when possible. If I lead the queen, neither opponent knows where the jack is. If I lead the jack and it holds, at least one and possibly both opponents will know I have the queen.) West plays the ten; East, the four.

The ten looks suspiciously like a singleton. If so, is there anything to gain by abandoning trumps and playing on hearts right away? Maybe. Suppose I play a heart to the king and it holds. Now I'm home. I concede a heart. They tap dummy. I concede a second heart. If they don't tap dummy again, I can claim. If they do, I have a high cross ruff.

That's fine if West ducks when I lead a heart. But what if he hops and plays another heart? If I finesse, I go down when the spade ten was a falsecard and East has queen third of hearts. If I go up, I go down when East has a singleton heart. There is no way I can guarantee success whenever the ace is onside. So this line is worse than 50%, and it's better to stick with my original plan of playing West for the heart queen.

I might as well draw one more round of trumps, just in case the ten was a falsecard. I cash the jack of spades, and West pitches the deuce of clubs. I can't afford to draw the third round of trumps. I might need the spade nine as a hand entry. For example, suppose West has ace-queen fourth of hearts. I lead a heart honor, West hops, and plays another diamond. I can ruff high, play a spade to my nine, and float the other honor. East ruffs with his last trump, and I have a reentry with the club ace to repeat the heart finesse. Note, by the way, that I would be unable to cater to ace-queen fourth of hearts onside if I had not ducked the first diamond. If I draw the third round of trumps, I'm short an entry to my hand. If I don't, West can hop with the heart ace, give his partner a ruff, then gain the lead with the diamond ten for a second ruff. I don't claim credit for seeing this at trick one, but I didn't have to. It's enough to know that depriving the opponents of communication is a good idea on principle.

Which heart honor should I lead from my hand? Again, declarer should conceal his jacks when possible. (Just think of all the times you, as defender, told yourself, "If I only knew who had the jack of hippogriffs, I would know exactly what to do.") In this suit, for example, if it were necessary for West to hop with the ace, leading the ten would make it harder for him to do so. If West has the queen, hopping may cost a trick by force (if his partner holds a singleton jack). And, if he doesn't have the queen, hopping may take a guess away. (I may hold queen-ten and be fishing for the jack.) In this particular layout, I don't have any specific objective in mind in concealing the jack. I'm just following best practices.

I lead the ten. West plays the ace, and East follows with the four. I have just explained how leading the ten makes it harder for West to play the ace. So the ace is an unexpected play. What can he possibly have to making hopping look like the right move? I can think of only one hand that makes sense:

♠ 10 A x J 10 6 ♣ K J 10 x x x x

Now, if he allows his partner to gain the lead before he does, he will be unable to continue the tap when he gets in with the heart ace. Somehow, though, I don't think this is what West has. He must have some other reason for hopping that hasn't occurred to me.

West plays the six of hearts. I can stop worrying about what West has now. If I play low on this trick, I can't go down. I play low, East wins with the queen, and I claim.


NORTH
Jack
♠ A K 5 3 2
K 9 8 5 3
Q 8
♣ 3


WEST
Nathanial
♠ 10
A 6 2
J 10 9 6
♣ Q J 10 5 2


EAST
Marcus
♠ 8 7 6 4
Q 4
K 7 5 2
♣ K 9 6


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ Q J 9
J 10 7
A 4 3
♣ A 8 7 4


This was not a spectacular defense. West can beat me by force by ducking the heart. Even after hopping with the ace, he will probably beat me if he continues diamonds. I can make it if I drop the heart queen. But unless I can figure out a reason for West to hop with ace third of hearts, I don't see why I would do that. Even looking at his hand, I can't figure out why he hopped.

Speaking of not being able to figure out the opponents' actions, why did East lead the five of diamonds at trick two? Was that systemic or was he just randomizing his spot cards? If I had needed a count on this deal, I probably would have gotten it wrong. For the remainder of the match, I need to keep in mind that the opponents might not card as I would expect them to.

The board is a push. I suspect our opponents played four spades from the North hand. And they probably got a diamond lead, killing any chance the defense might have. We were lucky Nathanial lived up to his name. This board should have been a loss for our system.

Table 1: +420
Table 2: -420

Result on Board 3: 0 imps
Total: +2 imps

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