Sunday, February 19, 2012

Event 3 - Match 4 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ Q 10 9 7 4 A 8 7 4 2 ♣ 9 6 3

Partner passes in first seat and RHO opens three clubs. I pass, LHO bids three hearts, and RHO raises to four. Partner leads the spade ace.


NORTH
William
♠ --
J 9 2
A J 10 5
♣ K J 10 8 7 4




EAST
Phillip
♠ Q 10 9 7 4
A
8 7 4 2
♣ 9 6 3


West North East South
Jack William Phillip Harry
Pass 3 ♣ Pass 3
Pass 4 (All pass)

Wow! Some three club opening! I don't care for our chances of beating this. If partner has the spade king, he has at most one other prime card. Declarer ruffs with the deuce of hearts. I'd like to encourage with the ten, but I'm not sure I can afford that card, so I settle for playing the seven.

I expect declarer to come to his hand and ruff another spade. Instead, he leads the nine of hearts--ace--three--five. As usual, when declarer does something unexpected, it's time to stop and figure out what is going on.

It's hard to see how playing a heart immediately is superior to ruffing a spade first. So declarer must have no way to reach his hand safely. He must be missing the diamond king and doesn't want to play a club to his hand for fear of establishing a defensive ruff.

Let's construct some hands where declarer is missing the diamond king and see if we have any chance to beat this:

♠ J x x K Q 8 x x Q x ♣ A Q x

If I tap dummy with a spade, I promote partner's ten of hearts. But so what? We have only three tricks. Perhaps it's better to lead a club, killing declarer's hand entry. Now declarer can't afford to ruff a spade, nor can he afford to play a low heart to dummy's jack. In either case, if he tries to return to his hand with a club, partner can ruff and put me in with the spade queen for a second ruff. But that's not how declarer would play. He would win the club in his hand and take a diamond finesse. Even if the finesse loses, the defense can manage only one more trick.

In order to beat this, I need to give declarer more spade losers. How about this hand?

♠ J x x x K Q 8 x x Q ♣ A Q x

Say I tap dummy, promoting partner's heart ten. Declarer comes to his hand in clubs, cashes his high trumps and discovers the bad trump break. He can take a diamond finesse, but he can't get to dummy to cash the ace. So, on this layout, a spade shift beats him. And it's necessary. After any other return, declarer makes six. Of course, playing trumps at trick two was a pretty poor way to attack this hand. A low diamond to the queen would have been a better idea. But at least I've found some layout where we have a shot to beat this, even if I need declarer to have misplayed it. When I first saw dummy, I didn't think that was possible.

I play the spade ten--six--deuce--heart jack. Declarer plays a club to his hand, draws trump, and claims.


NORTH
William
♠ --
J 9 2
A J 10 5
♣ K J 10 8 7 4


WEST
Jack
♠ A K 8 3 2
7 6 5
K 9 6
♣ 5 2


EAST
Phillip
♠ Q 10 9 7 4
A
8 7 4 2
♣ 9 6 3


SOUTH
Harry
♠ J 6 5
K Q 10 8 4 3
Q 3
♣ A Q



West North East South
Jack William Phillip Harry
Pass 3 ♣ Pass 3
Pass 4 (All pass)

It's nice to see I was right about the diamond king. Note how drawing that inference cut down on the work I had to do. If I had to worry about the possibility of partner's having the heart king or the club ace, I would still be constructing deals. Asking "What is going on?" must always take precedence over asking "What should I do?" Not that inferences like this are always correct. Sometimes you overlook something; sometimes declarer just misplays the hand. But if you draw a reasonable inference that turns out to be wrong and let a contract make as a result, at least you have an interesting story to tell.

Do the opponents belong in a slam? Six clubs looks slightly better than six hearts. It essentially needs the heart ace to be singleton or doubleton with some extra chances if you happen to get a diamond lead. But it's hard to see how to get there even after a more sensible one club opening. Not that you mind missing a slam this marginal.

The board is yet another push. Now I'm worried. We are still down ten imps and now have only three boards to go.

Table 1: -480
Table 2: +480

Result on Board 5: 0 imps
Total: -10 imps

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