Sunday, September 19, 2021

ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ Q 5   A K Q J 9 5   J 8 5  ♣ J 6  

RHO opens one club in third seat. I bid one heart. LHO raises to two clubs, partner bids two spades, and RHO passes. 

Partner tends to have good suits for his weak two bids. So he probably has a six-card spade suit that wasn't up to his standards. A good five-card suit is possible but unlikely, since it would be dangerous to bid past two of my suit with only five spades and no expectation of a fit. 

Should I pass or correct to three hearts? Even though my suit is better, it's a level higher. For it to be necessary to correct to hearts in order to go plus, hearts would have to take two tricks more than spades. I see no reason to believe that's true. 

I realize that's more of an IMP than a matchpoint philosophy. But my experience is that other tables find all kinds of ways to go minus. So even at matchpoints my primary goal in partscore auctions is to go plus. I rate to go plus here. Who knows what will happen if I bid three hearts? Partner might even bid again.

I pass. West passes also and leads the deuce of hearts.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 5
A K Q J 9 5
J 8 5
♣ J 6






SOUTH
Robot
♠ K 10 8 6 4 3
4
10 9
♣ A Q 9 8


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot


Pass Pass
1 ♣ 1 2 ♣ 2 ♠
(All pass)


East wouldn't be raising without four clubs, so West has only three. Why is he leading a heart? A lead from three small in my suit would be weird. I suspect he has four hearts and is trying to give his partner a ruff. So he is either 4-4-2-3 or 3-4-3-3.

I might as well pitch one of my diamond losers. I win with the ace and cash the king, pitching a diamond. East plays six--eight. West follows to the second heart with the three.

Now what? If I try to cash a third heart and East ruffs, I have lost my chance to take a club finesse. That may not matter. I don't expect the club finesse to work, since I don't think West would have led dummy's suit if he had a safe club lead. So I might as well try a third round of hearts. Good choice. Both opponents follow, and I pitch my last diamond. So West is apparently 4-3-3-3.

I was wrong about the heart split. Let's see if I'm wrong about the club finesse as well. I lead the club jack--five--eight--king. West belatedly tries the the diamond ace. East plays the deuce and I ruff. If West has ace-jack-nine fourth of spades, he has three trump tricks unless I can endplay him. Can I? I can cash the ace-queen of clubs and ruff a club to dummy as West pitches a diamond. Then I ruff out his last diamond and lead a spade. He can't take more than two spade tricks.

Embarking on this plan, I cash the ace and queen of clubs, pitching a heart from dummy. West's ten drops. Now my nine is good. This is the current position:


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 5
J 9
J 8
♣ --






SOUTH
Robot
♠ K 10 8 6 4
--
--
♣ 9


When I lead the nine of clubs, West ruffs with the deuce, and I overruff with the five.That's another way to hold him to two trump tricks. Can I hold him to one?  If he has ace-jack-small of spades left, there is nothing I can do. My only hope is that East's singleton is the jack.

I lead the spade queen. No such luck. East follows with the nine. I have to lose two spade tricks. Making four.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 5
A K Q J 9 5
J 8 5
♣ J 6


WEST
Robot
♠ A J 7 2
10 3 2
A 7 6
♣ K 10 7


EAST
Robot
♠ 9
8 7 6
K Q 4 3 2
♣ 5 4 3 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K 10 8 6 4 3
4
10 9
♣ A Q 9 8


95%! Another surprisingly good result. True, West made a poor opening lead. But it's not even his worst opening lead. Leading the suit they had bid and raised would have dropped yet another trick. Besides, everyone has the same opponents, so you wouldn't expect this result to be unusual. 

The reason it is unusual is that most players are in hearts. Some bid three hearts over two spades and played it there. Others tried a two-heart overcall over one club, pre-empting partner out of mentioning his suit altogether. A two-heart overcall is not a terrible choice opposite a passed hand. In fact, it's somewhat unlucky that it works out poorly. One would not expect that hearts is the wrong strain. In fact, the only reason it is is that East has an easier opening lead than West does.

No comments:

Post a Comment