ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 11

Board 11
Neither vulnerable

♠ A Q 2  ♥ Q 10 5  ♦ 9 8  ♣ A Q 10 8 7

I have 14 HCP with two tens, no jacks, and a good five-card suit, so I open 1NT. I'm consciously avoiding the term "upgrade." I'm not "upgrading" to 1NT. I am judging the hand to be worth a strong notrump. It doesn't need "upgrading." 

Partner bids two hearts, a transfer to spades, and RHO doubles. I bid two spades, promising three spades. Partner passes, and RHO balances with three hearts. Since I have confirmed three-card spade support by accepting the transfer after the double, I can leave any further competitive decisions to partner. I pass, and partner chooses to defend. 

I see no hurry to cash our spade tricks. The club suit isn't a threat. If the diamond suit is, perhaps my ability to ruff the third round will suffice to keep our spade tricks from disappearing. I'd prefer to avoid leading a spade in case declarer has the king. So I lead the diamond nine.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J 10 5 ♥ 8 2 ♦ K 6 5 2 ♣ J 6 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A Q 2 ♥ Q 10 5 ♦ 9 8 ♣ A Q 10 8 7

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	2 ♥	Double
2 ♠	Pass	Pass	3 ♥
(All pass)

Declarer doesn't have the spade king, but I'm still happy I didn't lead a spade.

Partner would compete with three spades on most hands with six of them. So I suspect declarer is one-six or one-seven in the majors. He plays the five of diamonds from dummy, partner plays the queen, and declarer plays the four. Partner shifts to the four of clubs, declarer plays the five, and I win with the queen. The club four should be from a singleton, 43 doubleton, or K94. But partner's carding when he shifts is unhelpful. He could have 943. 

Since declarer has no dummy entries, it won't hurt to cash the club ace. If declarer doesn't play the king, I will know partner is ruffing the third round. Unfortunately, he does play the king. Partner plays the three. Partner might be ruffing the third round, but he could easily have the nine left. 

With ace-queen of diamonds, there is no way partner would sell to three hearts when we have a nine-card spade fit, so it's safe to cash the spade ace. Actually, come to think of it, it's safe to play a diamond also. And it might be more productive. One diamond ruff won't help, since I have a natural trump trick, but perhaps I can get two. If declarer is 1-6-3-3, I can play a diamond, get a ruff, cash the spade ace, give partner his club ruff, then get a trump promotion on the fourth diamond. 

I play the eight of diamonds--king--ace--ten. It suddenly occurs to me that was an error. Partner might return a spade instead of a diamond. I should have cashed the spade ace first to remove that option. Fortunately, partner returns the three of diamonds. Declarer plays the jack, and I ruff. Now ace of spades--five--nine--eight. I play the seven of clubs. Partner follows with the nine. See? I told you he might have 943. Declarer has the rest. Down two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J 10 5 ♥ 8 2 ♦ K 6 5 2 ♣ J 6 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A Q 2 ♥ Q 10 5 ♦ 9 8 ♣ A Q 10 8 7		EAST Robot ♠ 9 7 6 4 3 ♥ J 3 ♦ A Q 3 ♣ 9 4 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ A K 9 7 6 4 ♦ J 10 7 4 ♣ K 5

I would have been tempted to double three hearts with partner's hand. But it's hardly clear. Maybe I'm just being swayed by the result. Fortunately, plus 100 is good enough to score 90%. Most pairs defending three hearts beat it only one, and quite a few players in my seat made an undisciplined decision to compete to three spades. They got what they deserved, going minus when they were entitled to go plus. 

The decision to open one notrump didn't matter much. If you open one club, partner bids one spade, and you make a support double over two hearts, showing your three-card support that way. Then partner bids two spades and RHO bids three hearts. So you are in a similar position, except that now there is no chance partner will find a double.

How did the defense lose a trick at other tables? It seems they trusted partner's carding and tried to give him a club ruff at trick three. Of course, even if partner does have a doubleton club, giving him an immediate ruff is the wrong defense. 

It's interesting that some Easts shifted to the club nine instead of the four. Does this mean their carding in this situation is random? Sometimes they lead the nine, sometimes the four (but never, for some reason, the correct three)? No. It seems East returned the nine when West's opening bid was one club but the four when his opening bid was one notrump. 

I doubt there is any logic behind that. It's probably just an accidental consequence of the fact that the program traverses a different path depending on the precise auction. So, while I doubt East used a random number generator to select his card, it's random for all practical purposes. In other words, it's determined by factors we aren't privy to, so we have no way of predicting which card partner will choose.