Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 28 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K 9 2  ♥ J 5 4  ♦ 10 8 4  ♣ A K 8

RHO opens with one notrump. I have a one-notrump opening myself, so I could double. Some players don't care for penalty doubles of one notrump--so much so that they give double some other meaning. But I think the penalty double of one notrump is a useful call.

Perhaps, though, "penalty double" is not the best description. It's true that if partner has a flat hand, he will pass and you will defend one notrump doubled. But that's not the main reason you double. You double because it might be your hand, and if partner has a long suit and some shape, you want to encourage him to bid it. The double, paradoxically, tends to work out better when partner pulls it than when he passes.

You do, however, have to be prepared to defend if partner is flat, and with this hand, I have poor defensive prospects. I have four tops tricks and possibly a long spade trick, but no place to look for tricks beyond that. If I knew partner had some shape and was going to pull the double, I would double. It might be our hand and doubling now might be the only way to get into the auction. But if partner passes the double, I won't be happy.

I pass and am quite pleased with my decision when I hear LHO raise to three notrump. Everyone passes, so I must find a lead.

If the opponents have 25 HCP, partner is broke. If one of the opponents has counted a five-card suit as a point, partner might have a jack. My best chance to beat this is to find partner with the spade jack. Either I can lead a low spade, hoping to find dummy with queen-ten, or I can lead the king, hoping to drop a doubleton queen. The latter is more likely, so I lead the spade king.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 4 ♥ Q 10 7 ♦ K Q 9 5 3 ♣ 9 5
WEST Phillip ♠ A K 9 2 ♥ J 5 4 ♦ 10 8 4 ♣ A K 8

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
			1 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

Queen-ten of spades were in dummy after all. And, since dummy has only nine HCP, partner could have a jack, so I might wind up regretting my opening lead. But it's too late to do anything about that now. Partner plays the three; declarer, the six. Now what?

If I continue spades, declarer can take five diamonds, one spade, and anywhere from three to five hearts, making anywhere from nine to eleven tricks. Since I can't beat this, perhaps I should just cash out to ensure holding declarer to nine tricks.

One thing to consider is that declarer might not know diamonds are running. Partner might have the jack and declarer might have ace doubleton. But even if that's the case, what choice does he have but to try to run the suit? If I'm the one with spade length, I must have a club honor, since I would have led low from ace-king and length with no side cards. Even if declarer doesn't draw that inference, three-three diamonds is a priori more likely than both club honors in the short-spade hand.

So playing on diamonds is declarer's best chance to make this. But will he necessarily try to make it? It's a normal contract, after all. Might declarer drive the clubs anyway, conceding down one to avoid going down more?

If I concede a spade, declarer can count three diamonds, one spade, and three hearts. If he has five hearts, he can cash the ace and king and discover the suit is running. But if he has four hearts, cashing the ace and king doesn't help. When the jack doesn't drop, he doesn't know whether the fourth heart is good or not. In that case, it's possible he will wind up down two if he tries to run diamonds, so he might decide to play on clubs and concede down one.

Still, for me to continue spades hoping for that to be the case is playing for a parlay: Declarer must have ace-small doubleton of diamonds, he must have fewer than five hearts, and he must have two or three spades (else I can't set up a spade trick anyway). And, even if he has all that, he must judge to concede down one rather than try to make it--hardly an obvious decision. It's clearly right for me to cash my four tricks.

I cash the spade ace, then king-ace of clubs, then play another club on the off chance partner has the queen. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 4 ♥ Q 10 7 ♦ K Q 9 5 3 ♣ 9 5
WEST Phillip ♠ A K 9 2 ♥ J 5 4 ♦ 10 8 4 ♣ A K 8		EAST Robot ♠ 8 7 3 ♥ 8 6 2 ♦ J 6 2 ♣ 7 4 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 6 5 ♥ A K 9 3 ♦ A 7 ♣ Q J 10 6

Minus 400 is worth 46%. Nine defenders did continue spades at trick two and found declarer with the magic hand where he has a decision to make. Three times, declarer cashed out and made an overtrick but six times he attacked clubs and conceded down one. Presumably there is some randomness build into the program to account for this.

I notice some defenders chose to lead the spade ace rather than the king. The standard approach against notrump is to lead the king from ace-king or king-queen, reserving the ace as a request for partner to unblock an honor (or to give count if he has no honor). The queen also requests an unblock of the jack, so you lead the queen from king-queen-ten-nine but the king from king-queen-ten-small.

Someone--I don't know who or when--came up with the idea to reverse the ace and king leads. In this method, you lead the ace from ace-king and lead the king to request an unblock. This makes absolutely no sense to me. It means you can't afford to lead the king from king-queen unless you can stand an unblock. Perhaps the method makes some sense if you play Rusinow leads against notrump, but it seems unplayable otherwise. Yet I see that several websites for beginners suggest it.

If someone can point me to an article providing a cogent argument for this method, I'd love to see it. Perhaps I'm missing something. Until then, I'm sticking with the standard approach.