Sunday, February 12, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - February 10 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ 3 2   K J 8 5   A Q 10  ♣ A 10 7 3  

Two passes to me. I open with one club. LHO passes, partner bids one heart, and RHO overcalls with one spade.

I bid two hearts, showing four-card support. In the days before support doubles and redoubles, I would have bid three hearts. After interference, two hearts showed a minimum three-card raise, three hearts showed a minimum four-card raise, and a cue-bid (or two notrump over a double) showed a hand that would have bid three hearts without competition. The support double is an improvement. It allows you distinguish between three- and four-card raises while keeping the auction low, and, perhaps more importantly, it allows you to show a three-card raise when you hold better than a minimum.

Over two hearts, LHO raises to two spades, partner bids three clubs, and RHO bids three spades. With a maximum in high cards and no spade wastage, I have a clear acceptance of partner's invitation. How should I accept? We are both limited, so we know we don't have values for a slam. But it's important to prepare for a four-spade sacrifice, so I need to make the most descriptive call I can to aid in that decision. With this hand, I have no feature to emphasize. I'm balanced with scattered values. The most descriptive call I can make is a simple four hearts.

I bid four hearts, LHO bids four spades, and partner passes. Is his pass forcing? I'll give my usual answer to this question: Who cares? If partner thinks it's right to defend, he will double. If he doesn't want to stop me from bidding on if I'm so inclined, he will pass. In this auction, he will probably double any time he has two or more spades and pass when he has spade shortness. Since he is limited by his failure to open, if he passes I will have a fair picture of his hand and will be well placed to make the right decision. While I'm unlikely to choose to defend four spades undoubled, there is no reason I shouldn't do so if it looks right.

I think we tend to get hung up on whether a high-level pass is forcing or not when it often doesn't matter. Double shows better defense than offense and pass shows the opposite. What more do you need to know? If it's not clear from the auction that it's our hand and the opponents are saving, then we don't want pass to be forcing. And if it is clear, why do we need an agreement? Partner won't sell undoubled even without one.

Of course if you invert the meaning of pass and double, as some do, then you need a clear and unambiguous understanding of when pass is forcing, so you will know when this inversion applies. To my mind, that's a good reason not to play that way. No matter how clear you think your agreements are, there will always be fringe cases you didn't think of. While I can see an advantage of such an inversion, I'm not convinced the advantage is sufficient to compensate for the risk of a misunderstanding.

In any event, what should I do over four spades? With seven losers, it's hard to see taking eleven tricks opposite a passed hand. With a flat hand and scattered honors, I have a much better hand for defense than for offense. It's clear to double.

Double ends the auction. Now what should I lead? We appear to have all three side suits under control. If declarer has no source of tricks, there is no need for an active defense. My goal on the opening lead is to avoid giving away a trick. A trump lead looks like the best way to accomplish that. So I lead the deuce of spades.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q J 8 6
A 4
9 8 6 2
♣ J 6 4


WEST
Phillip
♠ 3 2
K J 8 5
A Q 10
♣ A 10 7 3






West North East South
Phillip Robot Robot Robot


Pass Pass
1 ♣ Pass 1 1 ♠
2 2 ♠ 3 ♣ 3 ♠
4 4 ♠ Pass Pass
Double (All pass)

What do I know about the layout? Declarer probably has six spades for his three-spade bid, so partner appears to have the singleton his auction suggested. It is likely to be a singleton honor, since South did not open with two spades. Declarer has at most three hearts and at most three clubs (since partner would not bid three clubs with fewer than three).

Declarer plays a low spade from dummy and partner wins with the ace. Partner shifts to the diamond four.

Why not a heart? With four small hearts, partner would probably lead one to get me off a potential end play. And with any five-card holding, he would want to establish and cash our heart trick as soon as possible. Not doing so risks declarer's later playing ace and a heart for a throw-in. The fact that partner didn't make the obvious heart shift suggests the shift is dangerous from his point of view.

What holding would make it dangerous? A shift from queen fourth might enable declarer, with jack-ten third, to set up a heart trick for a club pitch. Similarly, a shift from ten fourth might give declarer a trick if he has king-jack-nine. I can't see how a shift from any five-card holding would hurt, so I suspect partner has one of those two holdings. Also, he appears to be unconcerned about dummy's fourth diamond becoming a winner. Perhaps he knows that's not a danger. Perhaps he is 1-4-4-4, making declarer 6-3-2-2.

Declarer plays the diamond seven, and I win with the ten, Declarer surely would have played the diamond king if he had it, so partner has that card. That's seven HCP accounted for. 

Is there any reason not to continue with a passive defense? Can declarer possibly take a pitch somewhere? Suppose declarer holds this hand:

♠ K x x x x x   x x   J x x  ♣ K Q

If I don't play a heart now, our heart trick goes on dummy's jack of clubs. But why would partner switch to a diamond on that layout? If my deduction that partner has only four hearts is correct, I don't think any tricks can go away. So I continue with another trump.

Declarer wins in dummy, and partner pitches the five of diamonds. Partner would not pitch from four diamonds, allowing declarer to establish dummy's long diamond. So partner must be 1-4-5-3, making declarer 6-3-1-3. It also means partner has the diamond jack. With that pattern, partner is limited to 10 HCP given his failure to open, so he has at most the heart queen or the club queen.

Declarer plays a diamond from dummy and ruffs it. I unblock the ace to maintain flexibility. If declarer had the king-queen of clubs, he would simply drive the club ace. The fact that he has set about a strip suggests partner's queen is the club queen. Declarer must have queen third of hearts and king third of clubs. Not bad. I've worked out the entire layout. If my inference at trick two is correct, I can even place partner with the heart ten.

Declarer plays the six of hearts--eight--ace--three and ruffs another diamond. He now leads the nine of hearts. I play low, and partner wins with the ten.

If partner leads a third heart to tap dummy, declarer can lead dummy's last diamond and pitch a club, endplaying partner. Partner must tap declarer with a diamond to prevent that.

Partner agrees. He exits with the diamond king. Declarer ruffs and leads the heart queen. I cover and declarer ruffs in dummy. We have reached this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ J
--
--
♣ J 6 4


WEST
Phillip
♠ --
J
--
♣ A 10 7


EAST
Robot
♠ --
x
--
♣ Q x x


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K
--
--
♣ K x x

There is nothing we can do. Declarer can simply duck a club. Whichever hand wins this trick is endplayed.

Declarer leads a club to the nine. Henry Bethe would let the nine hold and laugh. But I don't have the confidence to make plays like that. ("Oh, you had the king of clubs, partner? Sorry. I must have miscounted.")

I win with the ten and cash the club ace. Down two.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q J 8 6
A 4
9 8 6 2
♣ J 6 4


WEST
Phillip
♠ 3 2
K J 8 5
A Q 10
♣ A 10 7 3


EAST
Robot
♠ A
10 7 3 2
K J 5 4 3
♣ Q 8 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ K 10 9 7 5 4
Q 9 6
7
♣ K 9 5

Was four hearts making? If South leads his singleton diamond and partner wins and leads a heart to the jack, he'll make it. If he leads a heart to the king, he'll go down. Nobody played four hearts, so it's hard to say what would happen.

Plus 300 is worth 93%. Four spades doubled was a popular contract, but most defenders either led a heart, giving away a trick immediately, or led the club ace and continued clubs. There is no need for an aggressive defense when you have all the side suits bottled up. 93% is a generous reward for an opening lead that should be routine.

3 comments:

  1. Excellent, as always. Perhaps you could comment about how much analysis like this you can do in face to face games. How much does it affect your game when there is a time limit?

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    Replies
    1. Sometimes I do take more time than I would feel comfortable taking in a face-to-face tournament. But this deal wasn't one of them. The deals I have time trouble on are the ones where lots of different layouts are possible and you need to figure out how to cater to as many as you can. Deals like this one--where you have lots of inferences and are almost double-dummy early on--I can play fairly quickly. One of the reasons I prefer knockouts to pair events is that you have more flexibility with time management. You can take the time on you need on difficult boards and play quickly on easy ones. In a pair event, if you get two difficult boards in a row on the same round, you are in trouble.

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