Sunday, December 31, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 9 6   K J 9 8 7 6   A J  ♣ J 5  

Two passes to me. I open with one heart, LHO passes, and partner bids one spade.

If RHO passes, my correct rebid is two spades. The spade support is more important than the sixth heart. Why tell partner about one card in my hand when I can tell him about three?

It's true that if partner is four-two in the majors with a weak hand, we will play the wrong partscore. But if partner is five-one in the majors with a weak hand, it's the two heart rebid that will land us in the wrong partscore. If my bid is going to end the auction, it's a tossup which rebid works better. So I should worry about the times my bid doesn't end the auction. In those cases, it will probably work out better if I show my spade support. 

Unfortunately, the robots play that two spades promises four trumps. If I bid two spades, partner will assume spades are agreed and won't look for another strain. So a two-heart rebid is foisted upon me.

Thankfully, RHO comes to the rescue with a two-diamond overcall. Now I can show my three spades with a support double. It's a weird system where you pray for your opponents to interfere so you can bid your hand intelligently. Incidentally, the support double solves both of the problem scenarios above. With five spades and a bad hand, partner bids two spades. With four-two in the majors and a bad hand, he bids two hearts. The double leaves room to play either major at the two level.

I double. Partner bids two spades, and everyone passes. RHO leads the four of hearts.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ K 9 6
K J 9 8 7 6
A J
♣ J 5






SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q 10 8 7 4
5
Q 7 5 3
♣ Q 9 7


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot
Pass
Pass 1 Pass 1 ♠
2 Double Pass 2 ♠
(All pass)

West probably has a singleton heart to be leading dummy's suit. And he probably has six diamonds to be overcalling at the two level with such a bad suit. Since this is a best-hand tournament, East is limited to 13 HCP, which means West has at least eight. And he shouldn't have more than ten--at least if I'm right he has six diamonds--since he didn't open with one diamond.

Is there anything to conclude from the fact that he chose not to open with two diamonds? Some opponents might be dissuaded by a four-card spade suit. But the robots like to have good suits for weak two-bids, so the fact that the diamond suit has only one high honor is probably enough of a deterrent for a robot.

I'm off two clubs, a heart, and a spade off the top. Even if I can avoid losing to the jack of spades and can avoid a third club loser, I still must hold my diamond losses to one trick, which means I need to ruff one diamond in dummy. That won't be easy.

I play a low heart from dummy. East wins with the ten and shifts to his presumed singleton diamond, the eight. I play low, and West continues to show his Christmas spirit by playing the king. I win with dummy's ace.

Where do I stand now? I'm losing a heart, a spade, two clubs, and a diamond ruff as soon as the opponents get in. I have to take the rest, so I must assume I can avoid a third club loser. I must also assume the spade jack is on my right. If West has it, East can lead a heart for a trump promotion at some point. My problem, then, boils down to ruffing my fourth diamond in dummy without getting overruffed.

Suppose I lead the spade king from dummy. Say West wins and gives his partner a diamond ruff. East might now be able to play ace of clubs and a club to the king to score a diamond overruff with the spade jack. Since I must assume East has the spade jack anyway, I might as well take a first-round finesse against it. Then dummy's spade king will be available for a ruff if necessary.

I lead the spade six from dummy--five--four--ace. West leads the four of diamonds, and East ruffs with the deuce.

West exits with the jack of spades. I play the queen from my hand, East follows, and I play low from dummy. We are down to this position:


NORTH
Phillip
♠ K
K J 9 8 7
 --
♣ J 5






SOUTH
Robot
♠ 10 8 7
 --
Q 7
♣ Q 9 7

I can now ruff a diamond in dummy and lead a club to my nine. But trumps are drawn, so there is no hurry to do that. I might as well lead a club toward dummy to give West a chance to hop with the king.

I lead the seven of clubs--four--jack--king. King? West can't have the ace of clubs.

♠ A x   x   K 10 9 x x x  ♣ A x x x  

is a clear an opening bid. So East must have both club honors and has made a careless play, winning with the king instead of the ace.

East now leads the club deuce. This makes no sense. If East were looking at my hand, he would know he could afford to underlead the club ace. He can't lose it, because I need dummy's trump to ruff my diamond loser. But he's not looking at my hand. For all he knows I have queen ten of diamonds and he's conceding the rest of the tricks. The robots don't think about giving declarer a guess. They worry about what works under the assumption that declarer is double dummy. Under that assumption, underleading the club ace can cost but can never gain. So, as hard as it is to believe, West must have the club ace.

I play the nine. West wins with the ten and exits with the club ace. I ruff in dummy and concede one trick. Down one.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ K 9 6
K J 9 8 7 6
A J
♣ J 5


WEST
Robot
♠ A 3
4 3
K 10 9 6 4 2
♣ A 10 3


EAST
Robot
♠ J 5 2
A Q 10 2
8
♣ K 8 6 4 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q 10 8 7 4
5
Q 7 5 3
♣ Q 9 7

West had a doubleton heart, not a singleton. That makes his failure to open a tad more understandable, but only a tad.

After the gift of the diamond king, can I make this if I play West for a doubleton heart? At the point I floated the six of spades, suppose I lead the king of hearts to ruff out East's ace? Then I lead a spade to dummy's king, reaching this position:


NORTH
Phillip
♠ 9 6
 J 9 8 7 
 J
♣ J 5


WEST
Robot
♠ A
--
 10 9 6 4 2
♣ A 10 3


EAST
Robot
♠ J 5
 Q 2
--
♣ K 8 6 4 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q 10 8
 --
Q 7 5
♣ Q 9 7

I lead the jack of hearts. East plays low, letting his partner ruff with the ace. The defense can then score two clubs and two diamond ruffs. No, I can't make it by setting up a heart trick. I can make it by leading the nine of clubs out of my hand. But that's not a sensible line.

Not that I need to make it. Down one is worth 96%. That's surprising. The auction and the first few tricks should be the same at every table. Not every declarer will float the six of spades. But that turns out not to matter. If you start spades by leading the king, the defense can't exploit your error without breaking the club suit. So you're still down only one.

The reason this is such a good result is that most players are bidding two hearts over two diamonds. Even given the opportunity to clarify that their support is only three cards, they still elect to show that all-important six of hearts instead. West of course doubles two hearts. Some stood their ground; others ran to two spades. But now the opponents have enough information to double that contract as well.

No comments:

Post a Comment