Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ A J 8 6 3  ♥ A K Q 3  ♦ 10  ♣ J 10 4

Partner passes, and RHO opens with one spade. That's my primary suit, so I pass. Perhaps the auction will proceed one notrump--pass--two diamonds, in which case I can double for takeout. It doesn't. LHO bids two diamonds, and RHO bids two spades.

The opponents are now in a game force. There is no reason for me to get involved. I pass, LHO bids three hearts, and RHO bids three notrump, which ends the auction.

We have four cashing tricks. There are two ways to go after a fifth.

One possibility is to try for four heart tricks. I can lead a heart honor, hoping partner holds the jack or that he holds the ten and declarer holds a singleton or doubleton jack. If dummy's diamonds are running, this is probably our only chance to beat this contract.

Another possibility is to hope dummy's diamonds are not running. If so, then declarer can't develop diamonds or spades without giving the defense a fifth trick. In this scenario, a heart lead isn't necessary and might actually hurt. If one heart trick is all declarer needs to come to nine tricks, then a heart lead may make it easy for him. A passive club lead is safer.

Which approach offers the better chance? Partner has an average of about two and a half hearts to the opponents' six and a half. The chance of finding him with the heart jack is slim. But my stiff diamond bodes well for the possibility that partner can stop the diamond suit. If I held two or three diamonds, I would certainly lead a heart honor. But, holding the stiff ten, I think a club lead offers our best chance to beat this.

This isn't IMPs, however. Beating the contract isn't our only consideration. If partner can't stop diamonds, declarer may have ten or more tricks off the top. If that's the case, we do better to cash our four tricks.

At matchpoints, a high heart has two chances to be right: (1) It could be right to cash out to hold the overtricks. (2) I could get lucky and beat it. At IMPs, I would lead the club jack. But at matchpoints, a heart looks like a better choice.

Which heart should I lead? With a robot partner it doesn't matter, since robots don't signal at trick one. But let's indulge in a fantasy for a moment and pretend that we are playing with a real partner. Which honor will elicit a meaningful signal? Specifically, which card will get partner to encourage with jack third, so I can underlead and cash five tricks?

The standard choice from ace-king-queen is the king. But if I lead the king, partner will probably think he needs the queen to encourage. What if I lead the queen? If partner holds he jack, he will know that's the card I'm looking for and will encourage. If declarer has the jack, partner won't know I've made a funny lead and will have no clue what's going on. But it doesn't matter. He has nothing in the suit, so he will discourage.

True, the queen normally asks partner to drop the jack if he holds it. You would choose the queen from KQ109x. for example. But dummy's heart length will prevent partner from doing that. This "can-I-underlead?" signal is routine when you are sitting over dummy and need to find an entry in partner's hand. You lead king from AK, queen from AKQ; or jack from AKQJ. If partner has the honor just below the one you lead, he encourages. It's rare to make this play on opening lead, since partner usually won't be able to read it. But if the auction and dummy make it clear what's going on, as it should here, it can be the only way to find out what you need to know.

I lead the heart queen and find the following dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K ♥ 10 9 4 2 ♦ A K Q J 8 7 4 ♣ 8
WEST Phillip ♠ A J 8 6 3 ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ 10 ♣ J 10 4

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
		Pass	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♦	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Partner can't stop diamonds, so declarer will take lots of tricks when he gets in. I need to decide whether to play partner for the heart jack and try to beat this or simply to cash out.

Partner plays the heart six; declarer, the seven. Partner should have either J65, J6, or 86. If he has J65, I can underlead now or at trick three. But if he has a doubleton, I must decide now. If he has J6 I must underlead; if he has 86, I must continue cashing. It would appear to be a fifty-fifty guess. But it isn't. Even if I knew for a fact that partner had J6, it's not clear I should underlead, since partner won't know what to return. If he returns a club, I would have done better to cash out. Since an underlead loses if partner has 86 and might lose even if he has J6, the underlead is less than 50%. My best play is to cash another heart, then underlead if partner completes an echo by playing the five.

Since I have a choice of honors to cash, I can give suit preference by cashing the ace. Now partner will know which suit to return when he wins the heart jack. I cash the heart ace. Partner plays the eight; declarer, the seven. Now I know partner began with 86, so I can cash out. 

 OK. It's time to exit our fantasy and stop pretending partner is actually signaling. My robot partner could easily hold the jack. In fact, he's a slight favorite to, since declarer holds at least three more spades than partner. Should I underlead on that basis?

I still have the issue that, if I underlead, partner won't know which suit to return, since this partner won't interpret my heart ace as suit preference. Since the underlead could lose a trick even when it's right, it looks better to cash out. I cash the heart king. Unfortunately, it's partner who holds the jack. Declarer follows with the spade deuce.

My only chance to beat his now is that declarer is void in diamonds. I cash the spade ace and exit with the jack of clubs. Declarer has the rest. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K ♥ 10 9 4 2 ♦ A K Q J 8 7 4 ♣ 8
WEST Phillip ♠ A J 8 6 3 ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ 10 ♣ J 10 4		EAST Robot ♠ 7 5 ♥ J 8 6 ♦ 9 6 5 2 ♣ 9 7 5 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 9 4 2 ♥ 7 5 ♦ 3 ♣ A K Q 6 2

Even though we can beat this with accurate defense, holding it to three is worth 71%. Two defenders did play partner for the heart jack, but it did neither of them any good. One led the heart ace, then, at trick two, continued with a low heart. East won the jack and shifted to the club nine, so declarer made four. What was East playing for with that club shift? If declarer has both black aces, he's cold. And if partner has either one, a heart return suffices. Was he greedily playing for down two, hoping his partner had ace-queen of clubs?

The other defender led a low heart at trick one! That's a play that didn't occur to me. It does have a couple of things going for it. (1) If partner has jack doubleton, he can win and return a heart, avoiding the problem of his finding the right shift. And (2) if dummy has the jack and partner has the ten, declarer is unlikely to go up. Still, if I were going to try to beat this contract with no concern about giving up overtricks, I think a club lead offers a better chance.

West must have been quite pleased with himself when his partner won with the heart jack at trick one. And quite displeased with partner when he shifted to the club nine at trick two.

What would happen opposite a reliable partner? Weirdly, I have a much harder decision at trick two. Partner will play the heart eight on my queen, and I will know he has the jack. If he has jack third, it makes no difference what I do at trick two. So let's assume he has jack doubleton. 

Should I guarantee four tricks by cashing the ace, or should I lead a heart to his jack and hold my breath? If he returns a spade, we'll beat it. If he returns a club, they'll make an overtrick. 

As we saw earlier, if I don't know whether partner has the jack or not, underleading is anti-percentage. But now I know he has the jack, so the situation is different. I have just as much to gain as to lose by underleading. So, if it's a tossup which suit partner will return, I'm on a complete guess.

At least that's true against every table where West leads a heart. But not every West will lead a heart. Some Wests will lead the club jack. Against those tables, if I underlead and get a club shift, I convert a win into a tie. But if I underlead and get a spade shift, I gain nothing. I already had the board won against those tables just by cashing out. So, if I assume it's a tossup whether partner will do the right thing, my percentage play is to cash the heart ace, winning against the tables where West led a club and tying (on average) against the tables where West led a heart.

But is it a tossup whether partner will do the right thing? Maybe not. Partner probably knows I have more spades than clubs--or at least that my expected spade length is greater than my expected club length. So if I lead to his stiff heart jack, he should return a spade, playing me for the ace I'm more likely to hold.

While some West's will lead the club jack, I doubt many will. Most defenders will see their ace-king-queen and stop thinking. So, if we trust partner, I think the underlead is the right play.