Sunday, March 31, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - March 15 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ K   J 10 9 8 4   10 3  ♣ A K Q 8 3  

RHO passes. I open with one heart. Partner responds one spade. I rebid two clubs. Partner bid two diamonds, artificial and game-forcing. I bid three clubs, and partner leaps to four hearts.

The tooltip says this shows heart support and 13 to 14 total points. That makes no sense. It's classic Eastern Science Fiction. 

You need some way to show slam interest in hearts. If three hearts promised extra values, then you could play fast arrival: Bid three hearts with slam interest and four hearts with a minimum. But three hearts can't promise extra values, because you haven't established the strain yet. If you have heart support but are willing to play three notrump if partner suggests it, you need to be able to bid three hearts even with a minimum. Since three hearts can't promise extras, playing four hearts as fast arrival would leave you with no way to show slam interest below game. In general, fast arrival should apply only when strain has already been established. In a game-forcing auction, jump preferences, like jumps in notrump, should show about a king more than you have already promised.

One might argue that this auction should be an exception. After opener has shown five-five in hearts and clubs, it's wildly unlikely he will suggest three notrump over three hearts. But making exceptions is dangerous. The rule as stated above makes sense most of the time. A partnership will be less apt to have an accident if it applies such rules consistently.

With this hand, I have a pass whether four hearts shows extras or not. I pass, and LHO leads the diamond ace.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A Q 10 3 2
K 3 2
K J
♣ 7 4 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K
J 10 9 8 4
10 3
♣ A K Q 8 3


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
Pass 1
Pass 1 ♠ Pass 2 ♣
Pass 2 Pass 3 ♣
Pass 4 (All pass)

East encourages with the eight. West continues with the diamond nine, and East follows with the six.

Whatever heart losers I have are unavoidable. But I might be able to do something about my club loser if clubs are four-one. I could cash the spade king, then, if I reach dummy with the heart king, pitch my clubs on the ace and queen of spades. That runs the risk of having my spade queen ruffed when clubs were three-two all along.

A priori, a five-two break is less likely than a four-one break. But I have reason to believe clubs are splitting. West might have led a singleton club. And, if he has the heart ace, he might have shifted from at least some four-card holdings, since he would know from the auction that his partner had a singleton. Given that inference, I'm inclined to play for clubs to break rather than risk a spade ruff.

Of course the inference isn't 100%. So if I can cash spades safely, I'd prefer to do that. Can I? Let's assume trumps break. To cash spades safely, I would need to reach dummy with the heart king after trumps are drawn. If West has the heart queen, I can't manage that. He can cover the first or second heart hand and force to me play the king early. If West has the heart ace, however, I can. If he takes the ace early, I can win the third round of hearts with dummy's king. If he has ace third and ducks twice, I can win the second round with the king, and the only heart outstanding will be the ace, which I don't mind his ruffing with.

I play a spade to the king. East plays the six; West, the four. Should I lead the heart jack or a lower heart? I don't see that it matters. I choose the jack as a discovery play. If West has the queen, I'd like to see what holding he does or doesn't cover from for future reference.

West covers my jack with the queen. I play dummy's king, and East wins with the ace. OK. Cashing spades is out. I have to rely on a club break.

East shifts to the club six. I take the ace, and West follows with the five. Everyone follows to the heart ten. This is the position with one trump outstanding:


NORTH
Robot
♠ A Q 10 3
3
--
♣ 7 4






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
9 8 4
--
♣ K Q 8 3

If clubs break, I have the rest. What if they don't break? If the hand with club singleton is out of hearts I can cash two clubs and ruff one in dummy to make five. It costs nothing to try. If the club king gets ruffed, I still make four. I'm simply trading a club loser for a trump loser. 

I lead the club king. Everyone follows, and I claim. Making five.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A Q 10 3 2
K 3 2
K J
♣ 7 4 2


WEST
Robot
♠ J 9 8 5 4
Q 5
A 9 7
♣ J 9 5


EAST
Robot
♠ 7 6
A 7 6
Q 8 6 5 4 2
♣ 10 6


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K
J 10 9 8 4
10 3
♣ A K Q 8 3

Plus 650 is worth 61%.

West covered with queen doubleton, apparently worried I would lead the jack from something like J107xx. I'll keep that in mind.

Some declarers led the heart eight rather than the jack and found themselves with an interesting problem. West played low, and East took the ace and switched to the club six. Declarer won and played a heart to the queen and king, reaching essentially the same position as above except that the lead is in dummy. Now what?

If East has the last trump, declarer can guarantee his contract by playing spades. If East doesn't ruff, he gets his clubs away. If East does ruff, he overruffs and has a trump in dummy to ruff a club with. The only time cashing spades fails is if West is short in spades and has the last trump. On the other hand, the only time you need to cash spades is if clubs aren't breaking, and it seems likely they are. If East had shifted to the ten of clubs, it would be a different matter. But when he leads the six, how can clubs be four-one? Did West really chose to lead the diamond ace holding either a stiff club or J1095?

Most declarers who reached this position played on spades. I think I would have played for clubs to break. Since both lines work, it's hard to say who's right. Although perhaps I did make a mistake in leading the heart jack rather than a lower one. Ensuring West doesn't play the queen on the first round does give you extra options, even if you decide not to take them.

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