Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 10 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A 3  ♥ A J 9 6 4 2  ♦ K Q 10 8  ♣ Q

I open in first seat with one heart. Partner bids one spade. I rebid two diamonds, and partner bids two notrump.

Three hearts by me should be forcing. If I were six-four in the red suits with a bad hand, I would rebid two hearts over one notrump, then remove two notrump to three diamonds. Bidding two diamond then rebidding hearts, sometimes referred to as an ABA sequence, should be forcing. Unfortunately, as I've discovered in the past, the robots don't understand this. To ensure we reach game, I have to guess whether to bid four hearts or three notrump. Four hearts risks catching partner with a singleton heart. But if we can't set up hearts, we may be unable to find nine tricks in notrump anyway. So I guess to bid four hearts.

Four hearts ends the auction, and West leads the four of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 7 2 ♥ Q ♦ A J 9 5 3 2 ♣ K 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 3 ♥ A J 9 6 4 2 ♦ K Q 10 8 ♣ Q

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 NT	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

Partner does have a singleton heart, but at least it's the queen. It appears I will lose a club trick, possibly a spade, and one or two trump tricks. Can I pitch my spade loser on the club king? I can if East doesn't shift to a spade at trick two. But if he does, I have a problem. I must decide whether to duck, hoping East has shifted from the king, or to hop and cross to dummy with a diamond to take my pitch. The latter risks setting up a diamond ruff for the opponents when they win the heart king.

Maybe I won't have to make that decision. If East has ace-jack of clubs, he may insert the jack at trick one and let me score my stiff queen. I play low from dummy. East, unfortunately, takes the ace. The good news is he shifts to the king of spades, solving my problem. I take the ace, and West follows with the five.

There is no lie of the trump suit where I can take all the tricks. Even if East has king-ten doubleton, I will still lose a slow heart trick to West. So there is nothing to gain by finessing. I might as well lead a low heart to the queen and hope the ten drops in three rounds. If so, I'll make five. If not, I'll make four.

I lead the heart deuce. West hops with the king, and East follows with the seven. West shifts to the four of diamonds. I win in my hand with the king and cash the ace and jack of hearts. The ten doesn't drop, so I make four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 7 2 ♥ Q ♦ A J 9 5 3 2 ♣ K 7
WEST Robot ♠ J 6 5 ♥ K 10 8 3 ♦ 6 4 ♣ J 9 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ K 9 8 4 ♥ 7 5 ♦ 7 ♣ A 10 6 5 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 3 ♥ A J 9 6 4 2 ♦ K Q 10 8 ♣ Q

Plus 620 is worth 86%. Some guessed to bid three notrump rather than four hearts. With help in both black suits, that's not an unreasonable choice, but it didn't work out here. Three notrump makes only three.

What is an unreasonable choice is the way some declarers played four hearts. They crossed with a diamond to take a pointless heart finesse. When the finesse lost, East scored a diamond ruff for down one. As we said earlier, the finesse can't gain. There is no reason not to lead a low heart from your hand.

I'm still not sure what East's shift to the spade king was all about. A low spade would beat me if I hopped with the ace. Perhaps East was worried I had a stiff jack and leading a low spade would set up a ruffing finesse against his king. But so what? Even if that happens, I'm pitching a winner. 

The only thing I can think of is that East wanted to retain the lead to make sure the defense played a second spade. He was afraid if he led a spade to his partner's ace, his partner would find something else to do, like try to give him a diamond ruff. But unless the robots have been given a major upgrade lately, they don't worry about solving problems for partner, so I doubt that's it. Robots need a verbose mode, where they explain what they were "thinking."

If East does shift to a low spade at trick two, what should I do? Ducking always works if East has the spade king. Hopping might or might not work if West has it. A priori, it's fifty-fifty who has it, so if I think the location of the spade king has no bearing on East's decision to shift, the percentage play is to duck. If I think it has some bearing but isn't necessarily determinative, then I have a much harder problem.

If East has the spade king, then, from his point of view, his partner might have the ace, which could make the shift necessary. And since I'm known to have at most three black cards, a shift from the king can't cost. So I see no reason why East should be reluctant to shift from the king. Accordingly, ducking appears to be my percentage play.

But we now know that it isn't. For whatever reason, East thinks he's supposed to shift to spade king when he has it. So if he leads low, he doesn't have it. Of course, I had no way of knowing that at the time. So if East had shifted to a low spade, I suspect I would have mistakenly ducked.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 10 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A Q 8  ♥ A 4  ♦ A K 8 5 3  ♣ K 6 2

I open with two notrump (20-21 HCP) in second seat. Partner raises to three. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 ♥ Q 9 7 ♦ Q J 2 ♣ 10 9 8 5 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 8 ♥ A 4 ♦ A K 8 5 3 ♣ K 6 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

I have nine top tricks. The best place to try for more is in the club suit. If clubs break and RHO has the queen or jack, I can float the ten of clubs, then reach dummy and finesse again to set up the suit. I lose only two club tricks and make five.

The problem with this line is the West may shift to a heart when he wins the club. Now what? I doubt my robot opponent will shift from the king (though a crafty human might). So if he does shift, my best shot is to play low, hoping East has KJx or K10x or chooses to play the jack from KJ8. If I don't get lucky in the heart suit, I still have the chance that East has the club ace and West can't get in to continue hearts. I make four if any of these chances pans out; I might go down if they don't.

Alternatively, I could just play a club to the king. If the ace is onside, I make four, and I don't risk going down. Which play is better? 

If the club ace is on my right, floating the ten makes four if West shifts to a heart and five if he doesn't (unless West has a stiff queen or jack). So it always works at least as well as a club to the king and sometimes works better.

If the club king is on my left, a club to the king might work better. But it requires a parlay: West would need to find a heart shift, and the lie of the heart suit would have to be unfavorable. It's weird that a club to the king is the better play only when it loses, isn't it?

All in all, I would have to be quite unlucky to regret floating the club ten, so that's that line I'll choose. 

The four is the lowest outstanding diamond, so West can't have all five of them. It's safe to play the queen from dummy. I do so, as East follows with the seven. Now ten of clubs--four--deuce--ace. Well! That was a success. I'm making at least four now.

West continues with the ten of diamonds. I win with dummy's jack, and East discards the spade six. The robots discard count cards, so it appears East has an even number of spades. 

If clubs split, I'm making five. I lead the club nine, and East covers with the jack. I take the king, and West discards the eight of heart, presumably from an even number.

This is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 ♥ Q 9 7 ♦ 2 ♣ 8 5 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 8 ♥ A 4 ♦ A K 8 ♣ 6

East has queen-seven of clubs over dummy's eight, so the club suit is dead. My only chance for a second overtrick now is to score the heart queen.

What is the layout? I know East has an even number of spades and West has an even number of hearts. East could be 4-4-1-4, making West 4-4-4-1. But would West discard from a four-card heart suit when he had a safe diamond pitch? He might if he had the king. If he doesn't have the king, then he probably has six hearts. That would make East 6-2-1-4 and West 2-6-4-1. In normal circumstances, I would consider the latter construction unlikely, since West didn't lead a heart. But robots don't believe in fourth from longest and strongest, so I can't rule it out.

So what's next? I have two ways to score the heart queen: 

(1) If West has the heart king, I can simply lead a low heart toward the queen.

(2) If East has the heart king, I can cash my winners, coming down to this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ Q 9 ♦ -- ♣ 8
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A 4 ♦ -- ♣ 6

East must either stiff the heart king or come down to two hearts and the queen of clubs. In the latter case, I toss him in.

In essence, I have a two-way finesse against the king of hearts. Unfortunately, I must make up my mind now. If I run diamonds to get more information, I can no longer lead toward the heart queen without cashing the ace first. If I do, West can hop and lead a spade, tangling my communication.

So who is more likely to have the heart king? I already decided that if West is 4-4-4-1, he probably has it, else he would have pitched a diamond. And if he's 2-6-4-1, he is six-to-two to have it a priori. So a heart toward the queen is clearly the percentage play. Too bad. Endplays are more fun than finesses. But that's the way it is.

I lead the four of hearts--deuce--queen--king. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 ♥ Q 9 7 ♦ Q J 2 ♣ 10 9 8 5 3
WEST Robot ♠ J 7 ♥ J 8 6 5 3 2 ♦ 10 9 6 4 ♣ A		EAST Robot ♠ 9 6 5 4 3 2 ♥ K 10 ♦ 7 ♣ Q J 7 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 8 ♥ A 4 ♦ A K 8 5 3 ♣ K 6 2

Plus 430 is worth 79%. I would have scored 100% had I gone for the endplay, but it's a clear error to do so. The heart king is three to one to be on my left on the actual layout, and would be close to 100% if hearts were four-four.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 10 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K Q J 9  ♥ 9 7 6 3  ♦ A K J 5  ♣ A

Two passes to me. I open with one diamond. Partner bids one spade, and RHO bids one notrump, showing at least five-five in the unbid suits.

With five losers, I have enough to drive to game. Some avoid splintering with a singleton ace, but that's less important when the splinter is in an opponent's suit. In that case, the ace is less likely to be useful to partner, and your shortness may be the key to getting to slam. So I bid four clubs.

LHO doubles, and partner bids four spades. I have nothing more to say. Everyone passes, and West leads the king of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K Q J 9 ♥ 9 7 6 3 ♦ A K J 5 ♣ A
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 7 5 3 2 ♥ -- ♦ Q 10 7 4 2 ♣ K Q 8 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♠
1 NT	4 ♣	Double	4 ♠
(All pass)

If you didn't play in this tournament, stop now and plan the play. See if you can do better than nine of the other twelve declarers.

Partner has more club wastage than I expected, given the double of four clubs. Even so my only certain loser is the spade ace. I could make six if trumps split. But, since West should have a singleton in one pointed suit or the other, it's quite possible they won't.

Let's assume for the moment that East has ace-ten fourth of spades. Can I hold him to his two trump tricks and make five? Say I ruff the opening lead, lead a club to the ace, ruff another heart, then cash the king and queen of clubs, disposing of dummy's hearts. When I lead a trump to the king, East will duck, and I'll find myself in this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q J 9 ♥ -- ♦ A K J 5 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 7 ♥ -- ♦ Q 10 7 4 2 ♣ 8

Now I'm in trouble. East will win the next trump and tap dummy with a heart, and I've lost control. I'll score dummy's trump and, assuming diamonds are two-two, two diamond tricks. But East will ruff the third diamond and cash a heart, holding me to four.

To maintain control, I must have a trump left in my hand when East takes his spade ace. So ruffing the second heart is a mistake. Let's try at a different line. 

Suppose I ruff the opening lead and lead a spade to the king. East ducks. Now I unblock the club ace. We've reached this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q J 9 ♥ 9 7 6 ♦ A K J 5 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 7 5 ♥ -- ♦ Q 10 7 4 2 ♣ K Q 8

If I lead a second spade, what can East do? If he wins and leads a third trump to stop the ruff, I take the rest. I don't actually need the second ruff. I have enough pitches to take care of dummy's three hearts.

If East wins and leads, say a diamond, I win in dummy, ruff a heart, and pitch dummy's remaining hearts on the king and queen of clubs. Now I can just lead diamonds until East ruffs in with his natural trump trick. Making five.

What if East ducks the second round of spades? Now I can abandon trumps. I ruff a heart and cash winners. East can score his two trump tricks whenever he wants, but that's all he gets. Again, making five.

And what if trumps were three-two all along? If the defense wins the second spade, I have the rest whatever they return. And if they duck, I can run winners until they ruff in with the spade ace. Either way, I make six.

So, while ruffing a second heart may feel natural, it's a mistake. It gains nothing if trumps break and loses a trick if they don't break.

I ruff the opening lead in my hand and lead a spade--six--king--eight. Now the club ace--three--deuce--four. We've reached the position above. I lead the spade queen. East takes the ace, and West discards the five of hearts. East chooses to exit with the queen of hearts. I ruff in my hand, cash two clubs, and claim eleven tricks.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K Q J 9 ♥ 9 7 6 3 ♦ A K J 5 ♣ A
WEST Robot ♠ 6 ♥ A K 8 5 2 ♦ 9 6 ♣ J 10 9 7 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 10 8 4 ♥ Q J 10 4 ♦ 8 3 ♣ 6 5 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 7 5 3 2 ♥ -- ♦ Q 10 7 4 2 ♣ K Q 8 2

I like this deal because it involves no esoteric technique. There are no squeezes or throw-ins. All you have to do is think ahead a little bit and consider what might happen if you take your tricks in the wrong order. Still, that's apparently harder than it looks. Quite a few ruffed a second heart too early and held themselves to four. So plus 650 is worth 89%.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 10 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 9 5 4  ♥ A 8 7  ♦ A Q 10 9  ♣ 6

One club--pass--pass to me. I'm sure some will start with a double. But unless you have a very offensively oriented hand, you should try to end your sequences with double. If you start with one spade then double when the opponents bid more clubs, partner has the option of defending. If you double first, then bid spades, partner doesn't have that option.

I bid one spade. Partner raises to three spades, which the tooltip says shows four spades and seven to nine total points. So it's pre-emptive? That makes no sense. If responder couldn't bid at the one-level, why are we worried about his bidding at the three-level? Pre-emptive raises are unnecessary after a balancing overcall. You should simply raise to whatever level your hand is worth.

But I have no say in the robots' methods, so I have to deal with partner's determination to silence RHO once and for all. Fortunately, I have a good enough hand that partner's depriving me of a game try makes no difference. I have five losers and a clear four-spade bid.

I bid four spades, which ends the auction. LHO leads the king of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 10 6 3 ♥ Q J 10 2 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ 10 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 9 5 4 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ A Q 10 9 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
1 ♣	Pass	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	3 ♠	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

I'm losing at most a club, a heart, and a spade. If spades come home and the heart king is onside, I could make six.

What do I know about the layout? I know that East has at most 5 HCP. Even so, he might have raised to three clubs pre-emptively with five-card support. So there is some inference that West has at least six clubs.

East plays the club three, and West continues with the ace of clubs. East plays the jack, and I ruff. I'll assume the jack is an honest card and West has the club queen.

I cash the ace of spades--deuce--three--seven. In a vacuum, playing for the drop in spades is slightly better than taking a finesse. But it doesn't take much to sway the odds. Is my assumption that West has at least six clubs enough?

It's true this inference isn't 100%, since East won't always bid three clubs with five. But, just for drill, let's say it is 100%. Would that be enough to tip the odds?

A common method for making such decisions is to consider vacant spaces. In general, I'm not a fan of vacant spaces. It's a flawed approach and in some cases can give significantly incorrect answers.¹ But it does have the advantage of being easy to use. And in this particular case its shortcomings won't be an issue, so let's give it a try.

If I lead a diamond to dummy, lead the jack of spades, and East follows, then I will know eight of West's cards: six clubs, one diamond, and one spade. That leaves him with five vacant spaces. I'll assume we would have heard from West again if he had eight clubs, so East must have at least three. That means I know six of East's cards: three clubs, a diamond, and two spades, leaving him with seven vacant spaces. So East is seven to five to hold the spade queen.

But distribution isn't the only consideration here. We also know that East is limited to 5 HCP, and he has already shown up with the club jack. While this doesn't preclude East's holding the spade queen, it does make it less likely.

How do we take this factor into account? There is a variety of ways to do this. But so long as we are using vacant spaces for distribution, let's use it for honors as well. There are two significant honors outstanding: the heart king and the spade queen. East can hold at most one of them; West can hold both. So East has one "vacant honor space," and West has two. That makes it roughly two to one that West holds any specific honor. That's more than enough to offset the distribution inference, so playing for the drop is the percentage play.

I cash the spade king--eight--jack--queen. East has the club jack and the spade queen, so the heart king must be offside. Still, I have nothing to lose by leading the heart queen from dummy, even though I have no intention of finessing. I play the ten of diamonds to the king. East drops the jack.

What's going on? Why is East going out of his way to show me these minor-suit jacks? He didn't have to show me either one. It's almost as if he wants to make sure I cash the heart ace. Could his pass of one club be a psych? If Lowenthal were on my right, I would consider taking the heart finesse. But robots aren't that devious. I lead the queen of hearts--three--ace--king. Making six.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 10 6 3 ♥ Q J 10 2 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ 10 5
WEST Robot ♠ 8 2 ♥ K ♦ 5 4 3 2 ♣ A K Q 7 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 7 ♥ 9 6 5 4 3 ♦ J 7 ♣ J 9 8 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 9 5 4 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ A Q 10 9 ♣ 6

Plus 680 is worth 100%! Really? I'm the only one to drop the heart king?

East's club jack at trick two was a careless play. I never would have dropped the heart king if East had concealed both his jacks. But East made the same play at every table, so I'm not sure why everyone else finessed. Perhaps they didn't notice the club jack? Sometimes it can be hard to pay attention when the hand looks routine.

The "vacant honor spaces" analysis is an interesting approach, isn't it? It's not well known. And rightly so, because it doesn't work. There are some specific cases where it does give the right answer, and this is one of them. But, sadly, it doesn't generalize. Still, like regular vacant spaces, it's easy to use and it gives at least an approximation of the correct odds. Sometimes that's good enough.

---

¹See The Vacant Spaces Trap for a discussion of the method's flaws.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 10 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A 8 2  ♥ A J 10  ♦ 10 8 4  ♣ A K 10 6

I open with one trump. LHO bids three diamonds. The tooltip says this shows "strong rebiddable ♦; 14-16 total points." Partner and RHO pass.

Make one of my diamonds a heart or a spade, and I would double for takeout. With a ruffing value, I have a good hand for offense. And with four top tricks, I have a good hand for defense if partner chooses to pass. But with this hand, holding three diamonds, I have no reason to act. Not only do I know I want to defend, but I also know that if I double, partner isn't sitting. He needs three diamonds to convert at the three level. And when I have three myself, he probably doesn't have them.

I pass, and partner leads the three of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 7 6 4 ♥ Q 9 6 ♦ J 5 ♣ J 8 3 2
		EAST Phillip ♠ A 8 2 ♥ A J 10 ♦ 10 8 4 ♣ A K 10 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
		1 NT	3 ♦
(All pass)

There are 18 HCP missing. Declarer is limited to 15 HCP. since he would presumably have doubled with more. So partner must have at least 3 HCP. If that translates into a defensive trick, we are probably beating this. I have four top tricks to contribute unless declarer has a stiff club. And if he does, we may have an extra trick in hearts.

Declarer can't have five hearts, so partner's three of hearts must be from length. Three, four, or five hearts are all possible. I play the ten, and declarer wins with the king. 

Declarer leads the seven of diamonds--nine--jack--four. What will declarer do with this entry? If he has king third of spades, he will lead a spade toward his king, hoping to duck out my doubleton ace later. Even with king doubleton, he will probably lead a spade to his king. It can't hurt and might set up an end position later.

Declarer leads the five of diamonds. He squandered his entry, so I think I can assume that, if he does have the spade king, he has the jack as well and doesn't need to lead up to it.

I follow with the diamond eight. Declarer plays the ace; partner, the three. So partner has no trump honors. Where are his 3 HCP? Either he has the spade king or he has the club queen and the spade jack. Since I've already concluded that declarer can't have the spade king without the jack, the latter is impossible. So I'm placing partner with the spade king.

Declarer cashes the king of diamonds to draw my last trump. Partner pitches the eight of hearts; dummy, the four of spades. I wish partner would learn how to discard here. If he began with five hearts, he should play the deuce, clarifying his holding. But I know he wouldn't, so I have no idea how many hearts partner has.

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 7 6 ♥ Q 9 ♦ -- ♣ J 8 3 2
		EAST Phillip ♠ A 8 2 ♥ A J ♦ -- ♣ A K 10 6

Declarer leads the queen of clubs, partner plays the four, and I win with the king. If declarer has a stiff club, it won't hurt to lay down the club ace. Declarer can ruff, establishing dummy's jack, but he has no dummy entry.

I lay down the club ace. Declarer follows with the nine, and partner plays the five. So declarer is either 3-2, 2-3, or 1-4 in the majors. If he's 2-3 or 1-4, I can exit with ace and a spade. We take two hearts and one or two tricks in spades.  

What if he's 3-2? Then we have only one heart trick, but we have a shot at three tricks in spades. I must play a low spade to partner's king, get a heart return to my jack, then lead the heart ace, which declarer ruffs. Now declarer must break spades. If partner has jack-nine left, we'll take two spade tricks for down two. Otherwise, we'll take only my ace for down one.

To summarize: if declarer has three spades, I must shift to a low spade. If he has one spade, a low spade doesn't hurt. If declarer has two spades, a low spade doesn't hurt as long as partner returns a heart, which should be easy for partner to find.

I shift to the deuce of spades--five--king--six. Partner continues with the nine of spades. I take my two aces. Down one

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 7 6 4 ♥ Q 9 6 ♦ J 5 ♣ J 8 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 9 ♥ 8 7 4 3 2 ♦ 9 3 ♣ 7 5 4		EAST Phillip ♠ A 8 2 ♥ A J 10 ♦ 10 8 4 ♣ A K 10 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 5 3 ♥ K 5 ♦ A K Q 7 6 2 ♣ Q 9

We gave declarer a spade trick by breaking spades, but it couldn't be avoided. Plus 100 is worth 75%.

One defender managed to beat this two tricks by falsecarding with the heart jack at trick one. Declarer took the bait. He won with the king, drew five rounds of trumps, and played a heart to the nine. East took the heart ten and tapped declarer with the ace. Declarer now found himself in this position, needing one more trick to hold his contract to down one:

	NORTH ♠ Q 7 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ J 8 3
WEST ♠ K 10 9 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 7 5		EAST ♠ A 8 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ A K 10
	SOUTH ♠ J 5 3 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ Q 9

He can manage this by leading a low spade from his hand and ducking in dummy. But he didn't find that play, so he finished down two.

Despite the fact it gained a trick, I don't care for the falsecard. Falsecarding at trick one is fine if you know you need a miracle to beat the contract or if you know partner won't be involved in the defense. But neither is the case here. You expect this contract to go down. And if partner wins an early diamond trick, you want him to play another heart. How will he know to do that if you've played the jack at trick one?