Board 6
Opponents vulnerable
| ♠ 5 4 ♥ K 9 ♦ K Q J 5 4 3 2 ♣ K 4 |
RHO opens with one spade, and I overcall with two diamonds. LHO bids three diamonds, showing a limit raise or better in spades, and partner bids four diamonds. RHO bids four spades.
I have five losers. Can partner cover three of them? No doubleton is useful, so partner needs three working high cards. That's a limit raise. With a limit raise, partner would have bid three spades rather than gently raising to four diamonds. So five diamonds does not rate to make.
Next question. Can we beat four spades? I have one trick on defense (no tricks in diamonds and half a trick for each side-suit king). Partner needs three tricks to beat this, and I've already expressed my doubt that he has them. So four spades rates to make, and five diamonds should be a good save.
I bid five diamonds. LHO and partner pass, and RHO doubles, ending the auction. LHO leads the seven of spades.
| NORTH Robot ♠ A J 3 ♥ Q 8 7 5 2 ♦ 10 9 8 7 6 ♣ -- |
||
| SOUTH Phillip ♠ 5 4 ♥ K 9 ♦ K Q J 5 4 3 2 ♣ K 4 |
| West | North | East | South |
| Robot | Robot | Robot | Phillip |
| 1 ♠ | 2 ♦ | ||
| 3 ♦ | 4 ♦ | 4 ♠ | 5 ♦ |
| Pass | Pass | Double | (All pass) |
I can't avoid losing the two red aces. Is there any way I can pitch my spade loser? Spades are three-five, but West doesn't know that. From his point of view, East might have six spades, giving the defense no spade tricks. Further, West doesn't know his partner has no small trumps. So perhaps if I give him a chance to give his partner a heart ruff, he will take it rather than try to cash a spade.
This shouldn't work. Why would I play hearts before drawing trump if East might be ruffing hearts? But it's my only chance. I rise with the ace of spades. RHO plays the six; I play the four. Now deuce of hearts--six--king--ace.
West doesn't fall for it. He lays down the queen of spades, then shifts to the jack of hearts. I win in dummy and claim down one.
| NORTH Robot ♠ A J 3 ♥ Q 8 7 5 2 ♦ 10 9 8 7 6 ♣ -- |
||
| WEST Robot ♠ Q 8 7 ♥ A J 10 3 ♦ -- ♣ Q 9 7 5 3 2 |
EAST Robot ♠ K 10 9 6 2 ♥ 6 4 ♦ A ♣ A J 10 8 6 |
|
| SOUTH Phillip ♠ 5 4 ♥ K 9 ♦ K Q J 5 4 3 2 ♣ K 4 |
Minus 100 is worth 57%.
We have a shot at beating four spades. Declarer must pick up the jack of spades. Will he do so? Say I lead the diamond king. Declarer wins in his hand and plays a spade to the queen and ace. Partner returns a spade. What's the right play?
If North has ace doubleton of spades, it makes no difference, so let's assume he has ace third. (Yes, he might have ace fourth. Let's ignore that possibility for now.) Some might think this makes the odds three to two that North has the spade jack. Actually whether that's true or not depends on what we knew about the ace.
There are three ways for North to hold ace-jack third, and there are three ways for South to hold jack doubleton. So if North was known to hold the ace (from the auction perhaps), then it's a toss-up whether to finesse or not. Once you factor back in the possibility that North holds ace-jack fourth, finessing becomes the percentage play, but only by a small margin. If North can't have four spades or if you can't handle the hand if he does, then your play is indeed a toss-up. It's worth remembering this combination, since a lot of players don't realize that.
In this case, however, North was not known to hold the spade ace until he played it. That makes a difference. Holding ace-empty third, he might duck the queen, but with ace-jack third, he can't afford to duck, since his jack will pop up next. In other words, with ace-jack third, his choice is restricted; with ace-empty third, it isn't. So, when he wins the ace, ace-jack third is more likely by restricted choice. Finessing is now a favorite even without factoring in the four-one break. So if we sell to four spades, declarer should finesse and make his contract.
One player almost managed a top. He bid an imaginative four diamonds over one spade. West bid four spades, and North bid five diamonds. After two passes, West decided to take the push to five spades, making this South the only player who found a way to get a plus score. But then he turned his top into a near zero. After two passes, he saved in six diamonds. There are two good reasons not to bid six diamonds:
- It violates captaincy. A pre-empt describes your hand, so it's partner's job to make any further decisions. In this case, overruling partner is especially bizarre, since South has more defense than he has promised.
- If you don't care about theoretical matters like captaincy, there is a practical reason not to save: Not everyone will take the push to five spades. Five diamonds doubled will be the contract at some tables--perhaps many tables. If you compete to six diamonds, you are automatically losing the board to everyone who bought it in five diamonds. So even if you are right, your gain is small. The odds favor defending even if you think five spades is a moderate favorite to make.
