Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 8

For Alex's analysis:

Board 8
Neither side vulnerable

♠ A 9 8 2  ♥ A Q 3  ♦ Q 9 3  ♣ J 10 3

Three passes to me. I open with one club. Partner bids one spade, and RHO bids one notrump.

Since he's a passed hand, that's an "unusual notrump." The tooltip says it at shows least five-five in the unbid suits. I can't imagine why. You can double to show the unbid suits. Why have two calls to show the same thing? Besides, double is preferable, since it gives partner the option of defending.

Since it makes little sense to play one notrump as showing the unbid suits, I would play it showing minors, despite the one-club opening. I don't see how that loses. Your alternative with that hand is to overcall two diamonds, and one notrump leaves open two additional strains. (And I'm not the only one who thinks that. I remember hearing Al Roth rebuke his partner after a disaster: "No! It's minors! It's always minors!")

I raise to two spades, and partner tries for game with three of clubs. The ace-queen of hearts behind the bidder is a plus. But the queen of diamonds is probably wasted. Move that card into the club suit, and I would accept. With this hand, I settle for three spades. Everyone passes, and RHO leads the five of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 2 ♥ A Q 3 ♦ Q 9 3 ♣ J 10 3
	♥ 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 6 3 ♥ K J 4 ♦ A 2 ♣ 9 7 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♠
1 NT	2 ♠	Pass	3 ♣
Pass	3 ♠	(All pass)

West has shown at least five-five in the red suits, and he might have led a stiff club. So his likeliest shape is 1-5-5-2. The spade king is probably offside, giving me five losers: a spade, a diamond, and three clubs. But if West has two club honors doubleton and the diamond king, I can make this. If they don't untangle their club tricks in time, I can set up dummy's queen of diamonds for a club pitch.

Actually, I might make this even if the diamond king is offside. Suppose this is the layout:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 2 ♥ A Q 3 ♦ Q 9 3 ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ x ♥ x x x x x ♦ J 10 x x x ♣ A Q		EAST Robot ♠ K x x ♥ x x ♦ K x x ♣ K x x x x
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 6 3 ♥ K J 4 ♦ A 2 ♣ 9 7 4

Say I win and take a trump finesse. It loses. If East returns a trump or a heart, I can draw trump, cash hearts, then play a club. West cashes clubs and plays a diamond. If he leads the jack, I can cover, capture the king with my ace, and lead toward the nine. If he leads low, I insert the nine, making when West has either jack-ten or the king.

The problem is, when I lose the trump finesse, East will almost surely switch to a club, letting West cash his clubs while he still has a heart exit.

Maybe I should forget about the spade finesse. If West is indeed 1-5-5-2, I don't need to take it. Spurning the finesse allows me to conceal my heart strength. I can win in dummy with the queen of hearts and play ace and a spade. Now my hand is no longer an open book. It will appear to East that his partner has king-jack of hearts. So he might well continue hearts.

What's the danger in that line? It's possible West has a stiff club and chose not to lead it. It would be embarrassing to play ace and a spade only to find king doubleton onside. I suppose it's even possible West has a club void and king third of spades, although East might have bid at some point with seven solid clubs. Still, part of being a good declarer is creating problems for the opponents, even if you have to take some risks to do so. If this works, the opponents will be demoralized--if it's possible to demoralize a robot. I think these risks are small, so I'm going to go for it.

I play the queen from dummy, East plays the ten, and I follow with the four. 

I lead the spade ace. West pitches the four of diamonds. Four-zero trumps! That kills the endplay. What's West's shape? There is only one heart lower than the five, so West can't have six hearts. And, since the robots usually pitch count cards, the diamond four is probably from a five-card suit. So West is 0-5-5-3, and there's no club blockage.

I play a spade from dummy. East takes the spade king. West pitches the diamond seven. West returns the nine of hearts. At least I kept him off the club play, for all the good it's going to do me.

I win in my hand with the jack, as West follows with the eight. I don't see anything to play for except for West to have given false count in diamonds and for clubs to be blocked after all.

I draw trump. West pitches the five of diamonds and the seven of hearts. We've reached this position, with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A ♦ Q 9 3 ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ K ♦ A 2 ♣ 9 7 4

Now ace and a diamond. West hops with the king and plays another heart. I get my pitch. Making three. So the clubs were blocked? West gave false count in diamonds?

No. Here's the full deal:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 2 ♥ A Q 3 ♦ Q 9 3 ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ 8 7 6 5 2 ♦ K 10 7 5 4 ♣ A Q 8		EAST Robot ♠ K 7 5 4 ♥ 10 9 ♦ J 8 6 ♣ K 6 5 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 6 3 ♥ K J 4 ♦ A 2 ♣ 9 7 4

West simply butchered the defense. He knew his partner had the club king, else South would have driven to game. So why didn't he cash clubs? Ah, I see. He thought his partner had the last trump and this was the position after he won the diamond king:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A ♦ Q ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ 6 2 ♦ -- ♣ A Q 8		EAST Robot ♠ 6 ♥ -- ♦ 8 ♣ K 6 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K ♦ -- ♣ 9 7 4 2

If he ruffs out my heart ace, the defense takes the rest. If he cashes clubs, I score a diamond at the end. Of course, if that were the layout, I would have played diamonds earlier to score a ruff in my hand. The robots really need to learn to draw inferences.

I score 89% for plus 140 and finish with a respectable 72%.

Be sure to play in this week's Free Weekly Instant Tournament on BBO so we can start comparing results next week.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 6

Alex also discusses this deal in Gargoyle Chronicle's YouTube channel:

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q J  ♥ J 5 2  ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3  ♣ A 3

Pass on my right. I'm sure some will open with one notrump, letting the six-card suit compensate for the missing high-card point. I'm not averse to opening one notrump with a six-card minor. But this hand doesn't look good enough to me. A strong notrump typically has three and a half to four honor tricks. This hand has a little better than two and half.

I open with one diamond. LHO overcalls with one heart, partner makes a negative double, and RHO raises to two hearts. It's a flaw in the robots' methods that I can't bid with this hand. But I can't. Partner would expect a much better hand for three diamonds, and two notrump is natural. I pass perforce. LHO also passes, and partner reopens with a double.

I think this double should be "take-out" of opener's suit, in other words, promising at least three hearts, at least three clubs, and no more than two diamonds. With that understanding, I would pass. But the robots play this double as virtually meaningless. It says nothing other than that partner doesn't want to sell out. I don't see how that's playable. You need some agreement as to responder's possible shapes to be able to make an intelligent decision. But my robot partner refuses to listen to my suggestions. So I guess to pull to three diamonds.

Everyone passes, and West leads the king of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 6 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ J 6 2
	♥ K
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 5 2 ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3 ♣ A 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♦
1 ♥	Double	2 ♥	Pass
Pass	Double	Pass	3 ♦
(All pass)

West overcalled in a four-card heart suit? That suggests he doesn't have the right shape for a take-out double. He probably has a doubleton spade. Most likely 2-4-3-4. This is going to be a surprise to East. East will think I have a doubleton heart and will miscount my hand. Perhaps I can make use of that at some point.

I duck in dummy. East plays the four, and I "encourage" with the five.

West doesn't fall for it. He shifts to the ten of clubs. I don't want East on play for a heart through, so I duck in dummy, and, when East plays the seven, I duck in my hand as well.

West continues with the nine of clubs. I play low. This time East contributes the king and I take my ace.

Why did East play the club king? It's easy to gloss over such matters. But any time an opponent does something unexpected, it's worth pausing to figure out why. If you can, it may reveal the whole layout to you.

One possibility is he has king-queen and is giving suit preference for spades. At least that would be a possibility if East were human. But the robots don't play suit preference, so that can't be it. Perhaps he has king small and doesn't want to win the third round of clubs. He is unblocking, so his partner can win the queen. That means he started with three clubs, making West 2-4-2-5 instead of 2-4-3-4. East, however, will be assuming his partner is 2-5-2-4.

It also means West has the only club guard, and I have the matrix for a club-heart squeeze against him. If I can come down to a position like this with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ A 8 ♦ -- ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J 2 ♦ 3 ♣ --

then I have him. But I don't see how I'm going to reach that position. East can destroy the matrix with a heart shift, and either opponent can force to me to ruff the club jack.

I cash the queen of diamonds--deuce--six--nine. Now the ace of diamonds. West plays the jack. The king and eight are now equals. I might as well unblock to keep maximum flexibility. I play the king; East plays the seven.

Diamonds were two-two, so it appears I'm right that West is 2-4-2-5. Is there any way to make this? Here is the current position with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 ♦ 8 ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 2 ♦ 10 5 4 3 ♣ --

Suppose I exit with a spade and the defense, fast asleep, cashes two spades and plays a third one. Now the squeeze is intact. That would be a poor defense, but it looks like my only chance.

I lead the queen of spades--nine--deuce--king. East shifts to the eight of clubs. Well, that kills the squeeze. But if West's last spade is the ace, I can now endplay him. I ruff and lead the jack of spades. West takes the ace and exits with the queen of hearts. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 6 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ J 6 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 9 ♥ K Q 10 3 ♦ J 2 ♣ Q 10 9 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ K 10 8 4 3 ♥ 9 7 4 ♦ 9 7 ♣ K 8 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 5 2 ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3 ♣ A 3

I wasn't even thinking about an endplay. It just fell into my lap on the way to the squeeze. East wasn't thinking about it either. Stripping partner of his exit card was not the right idea. But East presumably still thought his partner had five hearts and that his play didn't matter. It's hard--for both humans and robots--to back off an assumption you've made earlier. But sometimes you need to. When you think your play doesn't matter is precisely when you need to pause and revisit your assumptions. 

Plus 110 is worth 100%. I was the only one to go plus. I suppose opening one notrump would have worked also. If I open one notrump, I would probably play it there. I have eight top tricks, so that's an easier way to go plus. But this way was more fun.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 7

You can, if you prefer, watch Alex analyze this deal on Gargoyle Chronicle's YouTube channel:

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A 7  ♥ K J 8 7 4  ♦ Q J 10 3  ♣ K Q

I could open with one notrump, but I don't like opening one notrump with a five-card major unless I have a rebid problem. With this hand, I have an easy two-diamond rebid, so I open with one heart. 

Partner bids one notrump, and I rebid two diamonds. Partner bids three hearts, showing an invitational raise with only three trumps. I bid four hearts. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the nine of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 6 ♥ 9 5 3 ♦ A K 7 6 ♣ J 10 9
	♦ 9
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ K J 8 7 4 ♦ Q J 10 3 ♣ K Q

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

I have two aces to lose. I can lose a second heart trick or a spade trick, but not both. I'd like to set up clubs for a spade pitch, but the opponents are threatening a diamond ruff, so I can't do that right away. I have to get trumps going.

I win in dummy with the diamond ace. East plays the deuce. I must play an honor from my hand for two reasons: (1) It leaves open the possibility that I can reach dummy twice more in diamonds. And (2) if West's nine is a singleton, it leaves open the possibility that the lead was from a doubleton. (I could be 3-5-3-2 for my two-diamond rebid.)

What should East's deuce mean? I think it should be discouraging, suggesting either the ace or king of clubs. Since clubs is dummy's weaker suit, that's the obvious shift. With a club card, he discourages; without one, he encourages. If he encourages and West needs to find his entry (perhaps to get a diamond ruff), then West knows either it's in spades or East doesn't have one.

Some would play suit preference here, since West may be looking for your black-suit entry. But I think making ad hoc exceptions like that is a serious error. It gains nothing. Attitude works just fine, and always playing attitude rather than switching back and forth between attitude and suit preference based on some subjective criterion avoids misunderstandings. In this particular case, a low card suggests clubs whichever signal you intend, but you aren't always so lucky.

The robots, of course, understand none of this. The deuce means nothing at all.

I play the heart three from dummy. East plays the deuce. What's my best play?

West probably wouldn't have led a short suit with a singleton trump. And if he has four, it makes no difference what we do. So let's assume trumps are three-two. Let's also assume the diamond lead was a doubleton--not a singleton. We can revisit that assumption later.

Here, then, are the possible heart layouts:

Heart Layouts

West	East
♥ A Q	♥ 10 x x
♥ A 10	♥ Q x x
♥ Q 10	♥ A x x
♥ A x	♥ Q 10 x
♥ Q x	♥ A 10 x
♥ 10 x	♥ A Q x
♥ A Q x	♥ 10 x
♥ A 10 x	♥ Q x
♥ Q 10 x	♥ A x

That's a lot of possibilities to consider. Fortunately, we can simplify the analysis by canceling out holdings where the right play is simply a guess. For example, If West has ace-queen tight, my best play is the eight, which guarentees holding my losers to two. Similarly, if West has ace-ten tight, my best play is the jack. And if he has queen-ten tight, my best play is the king. In all those cases, the "wrong" play isn't necessarily fatal, but it does require me to guess right on the next round.

The upshot is, if West has two honors doubleton, my best play is toss up (if I have a three-faced coin). So the first three cases cancel out and I can ignore them.

Can we ignore any other layouts? If West has queen doubleton, it makes no difference what I do. I'm losing two tricks whether I play the king, jack, or eight. I also lose two tricks whatever I do if West has ace-queen third. So we can ignore those two cases as well. We have only four cases left:

Relevant Cases

West	East	King	Jack	Eight
♥ A x	♥ Q 10 x			Y
♥ 10 x	♥ A Q x		Y
♥ A 10 x	♥ Q x		Y	Y
♥ Q 10 x	♥ A x	Y
Total		1	2	2

The first two cases are the only layouts where I can hold my losers to one. If West holds ace doubleton, I must play the eight. If he holds ten doubleton, I must play the jack.

In the last two cases, I always have two natural losers. The trick to avoid losing a ruff as well. If West holds ace-ten third, I must play the jack or the eight. If I play the king, West can win, play his second diamond, then get a ruff when his partner wins the queen. If West holds queen-ten third, I must play the king. If I lose to West's ten or queen, he can play his second diamond and get a ruff when his partner wins the ace.

The bottom line: The jack or the eight is best in two cases each. The king is best in one. So my best play is a toss-up between the jack and the eight.

Is there any way to break the tie? Perhaps. Let's revisit our assumption that West has a doubleton diamond. If he has a singleton (or even if East thinks he has a singleton), then East might hop with ace-queen third to give him a ruff. That reduces the likelihood of one of the cases where the jack is right. So our best play is the eight.

I play the eight. West wins with the ten and cashes the ace of clubs on which East plays the three and I play the queen. So it was a stiff diamond and he's trying to find his partner's entry? No. He shifts to the four of diamonds now. Not sure why he cashed the club ace before doing that.

I win in dummy with the king. East plays the eight, and I continue to unblock by playing the jack. We've reached this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 6 ♥ 9 5 ♦ 7 6 ♣ J 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ K J 8 4 ♦ Q 3 ♣ K

I play a heart--queen--king--ace. The opponents can't stop me from pitching my spade loser. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 6 ♥ 9 5 3 ♦ A K 7 6 ♣ J 10 9
WEST Robot ♠ 9 3 2 ♥ A 10 6 ♦ 9 4 ♣ A 8 5 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ K 10 8 5 4 ♥ Q 2 ♦ 8 5 2 ♣ 7 6 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ K J 8 7 4 ♦ Q J 10 3 ♣ K Q

Plus 620 is worth 75%. We're sitting at 70% with one board left in the set.

What would have happened if I had opened with one notrump? Partner would raise to three, which makes on the normal club lead for 46%. But if West finds a spade lead, three notrump actually goes down--assuming that, when declarer plays a spade honor from dummy, East ducks his king to preserve communication.

Interesting that, even though partner is 4-3-3-3, the eight-card heart fit is better. Declarer's being 5-4-2-2 does make a difference, since it gives declarer two vulnerable suits. Switch one of South's diamonds for one of East's spades, and three notrump can't go down. 

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A Q 7 4  ♥ A Q 10 9 2  ♦ 9 8  ♣ 7 2

You can also follow this board on the Gargoyle Chronicles YouTube channel:

Two passes to me. Good thing I'm in third seat. This would be a problem in first or second seat when partner's one notrump response would be forcing.

I open with one heart. Partner bids two clubs, Drury, showing a limit raise in hearts. I don't have an acceptance, but I do have a full opening bid. If partner's had re-evaluates to an opening bid in support of hearts, I want to be in game. So I bid two diamonds, artificial, to show a full opening. Partner isn't interested. He bids two hearts. I pass. West leads the deuce of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 6 ♥ J 8 6 ♦ K 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 4
	♠ 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 7 4 ♥ A Q 10 9 2 ♦ 9 8 ♣ 7 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 ♥	(All pass)

I have four heart tricks and three spades. I need one more. The heart finesse could be on, or I could have a fourth spade trick, or the diamond ace could be onside.

I could insert the ten of spades. Then I would take four spade tricks if spades were three-three or if West led from jack fourth. But if the ten is covered, I'm awkwardly placed. If I win, play a spade to dummy, and lose a heart finesse, I could suffer a spade ruff. I think it's better to play the spade king to ensure I'm in dummy for the heart finesse. That gives up on jack fourth on my left. But I still have three-three spades or jack doubleton on my right.

I rise with spade king. RHO plays the three. I lead the eight of hearts--seven--deuce--king.

West returns the five of hearts. East plays the three, and I win in my hand with the nine. I cash the ace of spades to see if the jack drops. It doesn't. West plays the nine; East, the five.

I still have a shot at avoiding a spade loser even if they aren't three-three. I can cash another spade. If East ruffs, I haven't lost anything, since I can now ruff my spade loser in dummy. I've simply traded a spade loser for a heart loser. But if East happens to have started with two-two in majors, I gain a trick.

I cash the spade queen--jack--ten--four. So the jack was onside. I would have survived playing the ten at trick one.

I draw the last trump. West pitches the eight of clubs. That's presumably count, so West is 3-2-4-4. If the diamond ace is onside, I'm making an overtrick.

Let's assume it's offside. Is there anything I can do? If East has both club honors, I can exit with a club and endplay him. Is that possible? Ace of diamond and ace-king of clubs give him 11 HCP. But West would have led a diamond from queen-jack rather than a spade from jack third. So if East must have the queen or jack as well, which gives him an opening bid. So West must have a club honor. 

A club exit might work anyway. If I play a club and West hops and plays another club, then East is endplayed. That would be a terrible defense. But it doesn't hurt to try. I see nothing better. I play the deuce of clubs. West plays low; East takes the ace and returns a club to West's king. West shifts to the three of diamonds. There is no way my robot opponent is giving me a chance to take the rest of the tricks. The ace must be offside. My only chance is to duck. 

I play low. East wins with the jack and cashes the diamond ace. Making two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 6 ♥ J 8 6 ♦ K 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 4
WEST Robot ♠ J 9 2 ♥ K 5 ♦ 10 5 3 2 ♣ K 8 6 5		EAST Robot ♠ 8 5 3 ♥ 7 4 3 ♦ A Q J 7 4 ♣ A 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 7 4 ♥ A Q 10 9 2 ♦ 9 8 ♣ 7 2

Plus 110 is worth 57%.

I ducked the diamond king only because I was playing against robots, who don't signal. A human West would lead high with no diamond honor, so after a low lead, East would never fly ace with ace-jack. 

Let's give West the diamond ace, assume he is human, and take a look at this problem from his point of view:

	NORTH ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ K 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 4
WEST ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ A 10 5 2 ♣ K 6 5	♣ 2

Declarer leads the deuce of clubs. You duck to partner's ace. Partner returns a club to your king. Should you underlead your ace, hoping declarer has the jack and misguesses? Or should you just cash it? After all, if declarer doesn't have jack doubleton and realizes you're human, he has no guess. So you may be risking overtricks with no chance to gain.

The answer is: You absolutely should lead low. For three reasons: 

1. Cashing the ace is an insult to partner. If partner doesn't have queen--or if he has queen-jack--or if he knows from your club count that declarer has a stiff diamond, then he shouldn't play a club to your king. He should play a diamond to prevent the underlead. So declarer must have jack doubleton. And partner didn't put you on play to see you wimp out.
   
   
2. If you underlead, declarer will probably go wrong. If you have the queen, you must lead low. If you have the ace, you could cash it. So ducking is his percentage play.
   
   
3. It's important to have a reputation for being tough. Tough opponents are hard to play against. You have to worry they are making plays others won't even think of. So, even if declarer gets it right and you drop a trick, you will earn dividends in the long run. And if declarer does get it right, you should thank him for the compliment. He's assuming you would underlead the ace 100% of the time.
   
   

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ K 6 5  ♥ A K Q 5  ♦ A Q 6 4  ♣ K 10

Alex covers the deal on YouTube. She must have been watching Sam Spade movies lately. She decided to go noirish on this one:

RHO opens with one club. I double, intending to rebid one notrump to show 19 to 21 HCP, balanced. LHO passes, partner bids one diamond, and RHO bids an impertinent one heart.

The opponents might be in trouble here. But they are only at the one-level, I have four-card support for partner's suit, and they could have a playable spot in clubs. It might not hurt to double just in case they are in trouble. But the robots don't do well when the auction gets complicated. It seems wiser just to bid my hand and keep the auction simple. 

I bid one notrump, and partner bids two hearts, which the tooltip says shows 5+ HCP and is forcing to three notrump. Why didn't partner just bid three notrump? No idea. But if he wants to know more about my hand, it would be remiss of me not to show him my good diamond support. So I bid three diamonds. Partner bids three notrump.

Still not sure what that cue-bid was all about. But if my three-diamond bid doesn't excite him, so be it. I pass, and LHO leads the deuce of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 8 5 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 10

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	1 ♣	Double
Pass	1 ♦	1 ♥	1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	3 ♦
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

The sight of dummy does not enlighten me as to what partner had in mind with two hearts. He really wanted to force to game with 0 HCP opposite 19 to 21?

His proper bid over one notrump was two clubs. When the opponents bid two suits, the suit you can't have is a cue-bid, and the one you might have is natural. Here, partner can't have hearts when he didn't bid them over the double. But he might have clubs. And I've shown club tolerance with my one-notrump bid. So two clubs should be natural--and to play.

Anyway, I have to do what I can in three notrump. What's East's shape? With a stiff diamond, he might have doubled one diamond. Perhaps he's 2-4-2-5? Maybe he has a doubleton king of diamonds. If so, I can duck it out, then eventually throw the opponents in to lead a black suit for me. 

I play a low heart from dummy, and East plays the ten. A common mistake is to win the ace in this situation. That simply advertises you are well-heeled in the suit. With ace alone, you would be ducking. So the king or queen is more deceptive than the ace. The queen is marginally better. There are holdings where West will lead the queen from queen-jack, so, if East doesn't have the jack, he may already suspect you have the queen. If East had played the jack instead of the ten, the king would be better. Now neither opponent knows you have the queen.

I win with the queen. I'm going to try to duck out the diamond king, but I might as well cash the ace first. Good thing I do. West plays the deuce and East drops the king.

So East did have a stiff diamond. He surely would have doubled with 4-4-1-4, so he must be 3-4-1-5. I can now reach dummy with the diamond ten to lead up to one of my kings. Perhaps I can force the opponents to lead up to the other one. That would make three diamond tricks, three hearts tricks, and two kings for an impressive down one.

I play a diamond. West hops with the jack, and East discards the three of clubs. The three? The robots give count when discarding, so if he has all five outstanding clubs, he would be discarding the deuce. Is he 4-4-1-4 after all?

West continues with the three of hearts. I pitch a club from dummy, and East plays the nine. He shouldn't have that card. The ten at trick one was apparently a falsecard.

I win with the king and lead a diamond to dummy's ten. West plays the three, and East pitches the heart four. We've presumably reached this position, with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ ? ? x ♥ x x ♦ 9 7 ♣ ?		EAST Robot ♠ A ? ? x ♥ x ♦ -- ♣ A ? ?
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A 5 ♦ Q ♣ K 10

Which king should I lead up to? If I lead a spade to my king, the opponents will have three spade tricks. If I lead a club to my king, they will have only two club tricks. Seems better to lead a club.

I play a club. East hops with the ace, and West follows with the jack. East continues with the six of hearts, which I take with the ace. Now we've reached this position, with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7
WEST Robot ♠ ? ? x ♥ 8 ♦ 9 7 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ A ? ? x ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ Q 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ 5 ♦ Q ♣ K

If I cash the queen of diamonds and toss West in with a heart, he can cash one diamond, on which I pitch a spade. Then he must lead a spade, and I'll take the last two tricks for down one. Sounds good to me. That's what I do.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 8 5 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5 4
WEST Robot ♠ 9 7 3 ♥ J 8 3 2 ♦ J 9 7 3 2 ♣ J		EAST Robot ♠ A Q J 4 ♥ 10 9 6 4 ♦ K ♣ A Q 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 10

Minus 100 is worth 93%. Three notrump was a popular contract, but most declarers did not manage eight tricks.

Did East err in playing the third heart? He lost his second club trick that way. This was the position when East exited with a heart:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7 6
WEST Robot ♠ 9 7 3 ♥ J 8 ♦ 9 7 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ A Q J 4 ♥ 6 ♦ -- ♣ Q 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A 5 ♦ Q ♣ K

Can he beat me two if he plays another club? No, I guess not. I can't endplay West anymore. But I can endplay East, since he has all the spade honors. I cash the heart ace and the diamond queen. Then I lead a spade to the eight. East can't reach his partner and must give me my spade king at the end.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 3

 

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ J 3  ♥ A Q 8 6 4  ♦ A Q 8 5 3  ♣ 6

If you prefer, you can watch Alex take you through Board 3 on Gargoyle's YouTube channel:

I open with one heart in first seat. LHO overcalls with two clubs. Partner raises to two hearts. And RHO bids three clubs. Partner's perfect minimum is king third in both red suits, which makes four hearts cold on normal breaks. So my hand is worth an invitation. 

I suspect the field won't be inviting. I would count this as 15 total points after the raise, which isn't worth an invitation. But point count undervalues concentrated strength.

The loser-counters, however, might go to the other extreme and blast game. Five losers, in theory, is worth a four-heart bid. They're wrong, too, in my opinion. Loser count overvalues hands where fit is important. In general, when some people will be content with a part score and others will be blasting game, the baby-bear approach is usually right.

I bid three diamonds, and partner accepts with four hearts. Everyone passes and LHO leads the jack of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 9 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ A Q
	♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 3 ♥ A Q 8 6 4 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
2 ♣	2 ♥	3 ♣	3 ♦
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Since I think a fair percentage of the field will not reach game, my primary concern is making this. So what's my best chance? Should I take the club finesse to pitch a spade?

A vulnerable two-level overcall on a jack-high suit is unlikely, but it's not unheard of. And I might not need the club finesse. If I can take four diamond tricks, I can afford to lose two spades.

I can take four diamond tricks any time diamonds are two-two, which is 40% of the time. 50% of the time they will split three-one one way or the other. Of the eight ways they can split three-one, I can pick up stiff king or jack in either hand. So that's an additional 25%, bringing my total chances up to 65%. 

Actually, I'm wrong. It's better than that. West probably would have led a stiff small or stiff jack of diamonds. So that reduces the denominator. Let's try this again.

If we eliminate the likely diamond leads, we come up with the following table. For each of West's possible holdings, the tables shows whether we can achieve our goal. If we go up with the club ace, our goal is four tricks. If we finesse and it loses, we need five tricks.

Diamond Layout

West	East	Cases	4 tricks	5 tricks
♦ --	♦ K J x x	1
♦ K	♦ J x x	1	Y
♦ K J	♦ x x	1	Y
♦ K x	♦ J x	2	Y
♦ J x	♦ K x	2	Y	Y
♦ x x	♦ K J	1	Y	Y
♦ K x x	♦ J	1	Y
♦ K J x	♦ x	2
♦ J x x	♦ K	1	Y
♦ K J x x	♦ --	1

Now we can calculate out chance of success. The percentages aren't exact, because the cases are not equally likely. But it's a good approximation.

Goal	Cases	Percentage
4 tricks	9 / 13	0.69
5 tricks	3 / 13	0.23

If I go up with the ace, I'll make 69% of the time. What if I finesse? I'll make if the finesse works. I'll make even if the finesse loses if I can take five diamond tricks. If I judge the finesse to be 60%, then finessing works 60% of the time plus 23% of the remaining 40%, or about 69% of the time total. So that's the over-under. If I think the finesse is better than 60%, I should finesse. If not, I should go up.

60% sounds conservative to me. So I'll take over. I play the queen. East plays the three. I pitch a spade on the ace of clubs. East plays the seven; West, the deuce. I play the ten of hearts to my ace to guard against a four-one break. Deuce from East; three from West.

I want to make sure I end up in dummy after the third round of hearts, so I cash the queen next. West discards the seven of spades. I unblock the nine to stay flexible. Now a heart to dummy's king. West discards the king of clubs. I've reached this position with the lead in dummy.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J ♥ 8 6 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ --

As long as I don't lose three diamond tricks, I've made this. I play the deuce of diamonds from dummy. East plays the six.

My instincts say to cover with the eight. Now I can't go down. If I play the queen... Oh, I still can't go down. If West shows out, I lose a spade and two diamonds. This is why I don't listen to my instincts.

I play the queen. West wins with the king and returns the nine. I claim eleven tricks.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 9 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ A Q
WEST Robot ♠ K 9 7 6 ♥ 3 ♦ K 9 ♣ K J 10 9 8 2		EAST Robot ♠ A Q 10 8 ♥ J 5 2 ♦ J 6 ♣ 7 5 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 3 ♥ A Q 8 6 4 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ 6

Plus 650 is worth 100%. I was right the field didn't try for game. Only two other pairs reached game, and they both made only four. 

In retrospect, I missed a key inference in my analysis. I said that if the club finesse lost, I had a 23% chance of taking five diamonds tricks. But that's not true. Given West's failure to lead a spade, the best he can have in spades is ace-queen. If he's missing the club king, that doesn't leave him with much for his overcall. If the club finesse loses, the diamond king is almost surely offside.

That means the over-under for taking the finesse is 69%, not 60. I think I'd still take over. But it's a lot closer.