Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ 6 5 2  ♥ A 9 7  ♦ A K 9 8 4  ♣ K 4

RHO opens with one diamond in first seat. Three and a half honor tricks and a five-card suit qualifies as a strong notrump even if I am missing a high-card point, so I could overcall with one notrump. But, since the opponents are vulnerable and have opened in my best suit, it might be better to pass and see if they get into trouble.

I pass. LHO tries to stay out of trouble by passing also. Partner balances with one heart, and RHO doubles for takeout.

One could argue that two diamonds here should be natural. The primary reason to play that a cue-bid shows support is to allow you to play a jump raise as pre-emptive. But you don't need a pre-emptive raise when LHO has passed. You can simply raise hearts to whatever level you think is appropriate. 

But the robots do play two diamonds as a cue-bid showing heart support. So I might as well take advantage of that fact to offer a choice of strains. I can bid two diamonds to show my heart support, then bid two notrump to show just short of a one-notrump overcall.

Over two diamonds, partner bids two hearts. I bid two notrump as planned, and partner bids four hearts. RHO leads the heart ten.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ A 9 7 ♦ A K 9 8 4 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 3 ♥ K Q 8 3 2 ♦ J 3 2 ♣ 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
1 ♦	Pass	Pass	1 ♥
Double	2 ♦	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	2 NT	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

One of the first bridge books I ever read was Bob Ewen's Opening Leads. Ewen states that, when leading a trump, one should lead second highest. The idea is to retain your high spot for a possible overruff if you have a doubleton and to start a trump echo, to show a third trump, if you have three. So far, his suggestion is mainstream. But Ewen continues to say that "second highest" applies even when you hold an honor sequence. Thus one should lead the ten from jack-ten and the nine from ten-nine.

This method makes sense. If you lead second highest from non-touching cards (which is a common agreement), what do you gain by switching to highest when you hold a sequence? That simply introduces an ambiguity. I can't think of any reason not to play Ewen's method.

Ewen presents this as if it were expert practice. But, as I discovered later, it isn't. Not only have I never found anyone who plays this way, I've never found anyone who has even heard of this approach. That surprises me, since Ewen's book is hardly obscure.

That's not to say I've never seen anyone lead the ten from jack-ten of trumps. But they don't do so by agreement. They do so either for deceptive purposes or as some sort of mis-guided attempt to give suit preference. So, against a human, I would never assume from this opening lead that the heart jack is on my right. But against robots, I think that's a safe assumption.

Still, there is no reason not to guard against the possibility that I'm wrong. Rather than win in dummy and take an immediate finesse, I can unblock the nine, win this trick in my hand, then return to dummy with the heart ace for a finesse.

Accordingly, I unblock the nine. East plays the five, and I win with the king.

West probably has the diamond queen and presumably at least four of them for his opening bid. Let's say I draw trump now. If East has four of them, I will discard a spade from dummy on the fourth round. Then I will lead the diamond jack. West will cover, and I'll win in dummy.

If East doesn't play the ten, I know West has it, so I'll play a spade to the queen. West will take his ace and l return a spade. I'll win and play a diamond to the eight, reaching this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ K 9 4 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 3 ♥ 3 ♦ 3 ♣ 3 2

If I were in my hand, I could repeat the diamond finesse, take two pitches, and lose only the club ace. making five. But I'm in dummy. So I must lose the club ace and another spade and make only four.

No, wait. It's worse than that. I have no way to get off dummy without losing control. If I play ace and ruff a diamond to lead up to the club king, they can hop and cash two spades for down one.

Let's back up. On the fourth round of trumps, I must pitch a diamond from dummy. Now, after I take the second diamond finesse, this will be the position, again with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 ♥ -- ♦ K 9 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 3 ♥ 3 ♦ 3 ♣ 3 2

Now I can exit with a spade. If they win and tap me, I can repeat the diamond finesse and pitch one of my clubs to make four.

Can I make five if I manage my entries better? Let's say I lead the diamond jack at trick two. West covers. I win in dummy, draw trump, and lead a diamond to the eight, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 ♥ -- ♦ K 9 4 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 3 ♥ 3 ♦ 3 ♣ 3 2

Now when I play a spade to my queen and West wins and returns a spade, I'm in my hand for another diamond finesse. I can pitch my spade and a club and lose only the club ace to make five. If I'm going to take three diamond finesses, I need to take one of them now.

The danger in taking a finesse now is that diamonds might be 5--0. If so, I'm going down, losing two aces and at least two diamond ruffs. If everyone is in game, the fact that I risk going down doesn't matter. I stand to gain as many matchpoints as I stand to lose, so I should just take the percentage play. But if some pairs don't reach game, the risk-reward ratio is different. When my play works, I gain half a matchpoint against every pair in game. When it loses, I lose a half a matchpoint to every pair in game and a full matchpoint to every pair not in game. 

Is it worth the risk even so? There are three ways East can have a small singleton diamond and only one way for him to have a void, so an immediate finesse gains three times out of four. Let's say the field consists of four more pairs: two are in game; two are not. The immediate finesse will gain 1 matchpoint (.5 for each pair in game) 75% of the time. It will lose 3 matchpoints (.5 for each pair in game and 1 for each pair not in game) 25% of the time. So the net expectation is zero when half the field is in game. That means if I think more than half the field will be in game, I should lead the diamond jack now. If I think less than half will be in game, I should play safe and draw trump.

I could be wrong, but I think at least half the field will be in game. So I play the diamond jack--seven--four--.

The good news is East doesn't ruff. The bad news is he follows with the ten. That means I don't need three finesses to pick up the diamond suit. Two finesses suffice, so my trick-two finesse was unnecessary. Everyone in game will be making five.

I play a heart to dummy's ace. West follows with the four; East, with the six. I play a heart to my hand, drawing East's last trump, and West pitches the spade four.

Now I play a diamond to the eight and run the diamonds, pitching two clubs. East pitches the spade seven and the nine, five, and seven of clubs, carefully holding all his even spotcards. On the last diamond, West pitches the club ten. We've reached this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 3 ♥ 8 3 ♦ -- ♣ --

I play a spade--eight--queen-ace. West returns the jack of spades to my king. I cash the last two trumps and West "misguesses" and holds the club ace instead of the spade ten, so my spade three wins the last trick. Making six.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ A 9 7 ♦ A K 9 8 4 ♣ K 4
WEST Robot ♠ A J 10 4 ♥ 10 4 ♦ Q 7 6 5 ♣ A Q 10		EAST Robot ♠ 9 8 7 ♥ J 6 5 ♦ 10 ♣ J 9 8 7 6 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 3 ♥ K Q 8 3 2 ♦ J 3 2 ♣ 3 2

Plus 480 is worth 100%. It turns out the last overtrick was only a small bonus. Plus 450 would have been worth 93%. That surprises me. With the diamond ten dropping, making five should be routine.

West made a clear error in the end position. When he was in with the spade ace, he should try to cash the club ace instead of exiting with a spade. If it cashes, great. If I ruff, he knows he has a spade trick coming. Trying to cash the club ace eliminates the need to guess which card to hold at trick thirteen.

Robots make this particular mistake often. It's a flaw in their algorithm. They assume double-dummy play by everyone, including themselves, so they see no difference between a play that is always 100% and a play is 100% provided you do the right think later on. To be fair, we humans sometimes make this mistake as well. But at least we are embarrassed when we do.

The most dramatic example I've seen of this mistake is when a robot went down in seven notrump with thirteen top tricks. I led dummy's void, and declarer pitched from dummy's long suit. Now he had only twelve tricks. In the robot's "mind," he could afford this discard because he had a two-way guess for a queen for his thirteenth trick. So, double-dummy, the discard made no difference. If only robots were allowed to claim when the dummy comes down! Then he would have made it.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ 10 8 5  ♥ A K Q 3  ♦ 6 5  ♣ A Q 7 6

Partner passes, and RHO opens with two diamonds, weak. I double. LHO bids two spades, a one-round force. Partner passes, and RHO bids three diamonds. If you look just at high-card points, I don't have much beyond my initial double. But I do have four-card support for both unbid suits and all my high cards are in those suits, which means point count under-evaluates the hand. So I double again.

Partner bids three hearts and everyone passes. RHO leads the seven of spades.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 10 8 5 ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ 6 5 ♣ A Q 7 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 2 ♥ 9 5 4 2 ♦ J 9 7 2 ♣ K 9 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
2 ♦	Double	2 ♠	Pass
3 ♦	Double	Pass	3 ♥
(All pass)

Do I have any shot at making this? Given West's failure to lead a high diamond, East probably has a singleton diamond honor. So East will cash two spades, cash his diamond honor, then play a third spade. West will score an overruff, cash another diamond for the setting trick, then play a third one. I'll need to ruff high and hope the remaining trumps are two-two to hold it to down one. If they aren't, I'm down two.

Down one will be OK if three diamonds makes. Does it? To hold this to down one, I need West to have three hearts. So let's give him 2-3-6-2. If we cash our four tricks and tap dummy with a heart, he can't avoid a trump loser. That shouldn't be a hard defense to find, and tapping dummy might not even be necessary. But there's no reason I need to figure that out right now. I don't think is going to be a good result.

I play a low spade from dummy. East overtakes his partner's seven with the nine and cashes the jack of spades, as West follows with the three. East then shifts to the eight of diamonds. The eight? West led a doubleton in his partner's suit rather than a diamond from ace-king-queen-ten? How come the robots never lead my suit?

I cover with nine of diamonds. West wins with the ten and cashes the queen. At least he tries to cash it. East ruffs with the eight of hearts and leads the spade queen. I ruff with the nine of hearts and West pitches the four of diamonds. Really? East has both high hearts? That was lucky.

Am I making this now? Here is the current position, with the lead in my hand. I need the rest of the tricks.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ -- ♣ A Q 7 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 5 4 2 ♦ J 7 ♣ K 9 4

East wouldn't have ruffed with jack-ten fourth of hearts. So he must have jack-ten third. That means West is 2-2-6-3 and dummy's clubs are good. Even if East made a bizarre play of ruffing with his natural trump trick and West is 2-1-6-4, then four rounds of trumps will squeeze West in the minors. So it appears I've made this.

I cash two hearts. Both opponents follow, and I claim. The robots know I have a complete count, so they accept. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 10 8 5 ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ 6 5 ♣ A Q 7 6
WEST Robot ♠ 7 3 ♥ 7 6 ♦ A K Q 10 4 3 ♣ J 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ A K Q J 9 4 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ 8 ♣ 10 8 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 2 ♥ 9 5 4 2 ♦ J 9 7 2 ♣ K 9 4

Both opponents misdefended. West knows he doesn't want his partner to ruff the second diamond, so he should play the ace, not the queen. The queen asks partner to ruff. It's the card to play if you aren't sure if partner has a singleton diamond (so you can't afford to lead a low one) but you want him to ruff if he does. It would be the right play, for instance, holding the jack of hearts to ensure you get your overruff.

Even so, East, holding jack-ten third of hearts, should ignore his partner's request. He can see that ruffing never gains. But if he lets his partner's queen hold, he gets a trump promotion for down one. For his ruff to make any sense at all, he must have thought I had the diamond ace. I can't imagine why I would duck the diamond ace if I had it, but the robots don't draw such inferences.

Plus 140 is worth 100%. No one else doubled three diamonds, so had I gone down in three hearts, I would have had a near zero.

Getting 100% from your own actions should always be a cause for concern, since it means no one else did what you did. In a good field, that probably means you made a mistake and got away with it. That isn't necessarily true in a bad field, like this one. But you should still take a second look at your decision.

Was I wrong to double three diamonds? My double is certainly wrong at IMPs. We don't have a game when partner couldn't act. And with my holding such a flat hand, there is little likelihood that both our contract and their contract are making, which is the only scenario where you must compete for the partscore at IMPs. But at matchpoints, you want to compete if either contract is making. Am I right to double at matchpoints?

It's true I got lucky that the opponents misdefended. But the possibility that the opponents will misdefend is part of the vig in bidding aggressively. You don't want to count on misdefense. But it's OK if you catch an unlucky layout and misdefense rescues you.

Is that what happened? What would I need for my double to be right without misdefense? Suppose partner held the heart jack instead of the diamond jack. Now if clubs are three-three, three hearts makes. And if clubs are four-two, three diamonds makes. If all you have to do to make your decision right is to switch a jack from one suit to another in partner's hand, it's hard to criticize your action.

My second double was aggressive, but not crazy. So I stand by it.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A 10 5 2  ♥ K Q 3  ♦ A Q 6  ♣ 7 6 4

RHO opens with one spade in third seat, and I overcall with one notrump. Partner bids two clubs, Stayman.

Since RHO opened in third seat, he could have a four-card spade suit. It's even possible he psyched, although the fact that he's vulnerable and the fact that he's a robot make that highly unlikely. Still, I hate to be talked out of a trump fit simply because an opponent has bid the suit. I see no harm in showing my four-card spade suit, so I bid two spades. Partner rebids two notrump.

When you hold a strong notrump behind an opening bidder, you can often make three notrump with less than 25 HCP, since you can expect more than half of your finesses to be working. A human partner would have taken that into account already and would have adjusted his ranges accordingly. So opposite a reliable partner, I would pass. But my robot partner probably doesn't know to do that. I suspect he's inviting game with the same hands he would have invited with had I opened one notrump. So it's up to me to make the adjustment. 

I bid three notrump. Everyone passes and LHO leads the three of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K ♥ 10 8 7 6 ♦ 9 7 5 4 3 ♣ A J 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10 5 2 ♥ K Q 3 ♦ A Q 6 ♣ 7 6 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	1 ♠	1 NT
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	2 NT	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

If East has the diamond king and diamonds break, I have seven tricks. I can drive the heart ace for an eighth trick, but I don't have the dummy entries to take a diamond finesse and lead up to my king-queen of hearts twice, so I may need East's assistance in finding a ninth.

Will I get his assistance? He may have no choice but to offer it. The spade ten, the heart ten, and the club jack are all threats. He will have a hard time preventing me from scoring one of those cards.

East plays the spade eight on dummy's king. I know West led from three, but there is no reason I should let East know that. I play the five, retaining a card lower than the one West led. 

There are 17 HCP outstanding. If East is balanced, then West will have 3 to 5 HCP, so the diamond finesse could fail. Let's hope it doesn't. I play a diamond from dummy--deuce--queen--eight. Now ace of diamonds--jack--three--king. Diamonds split, so I have my seven tricks.

I'm not sure who has the diamond ten. I hope it's East, since I don't especially want West to get in for a club shift. I lead a diamond, and West pitches the five of hearts. The robots play count when discarding. That looks like high from four, making West 3-4-2-4 and East 5-2-3-3. That's a favorable layout for me. If East has the heart ace, I only need one heart lead toward my hand, then I can duck out the ace.

East wins with the diamond ten and shifts to the queen of spades. I play low, West plays the nine, and I pitch a heart from dummy, reaching this position with East on lead:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 8 7 ♦ 9 7 ♣ A J 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10  ♥ K Q 3 ♦ -- ♣ 7 6 4

East is in trouble. If he continues spades, he gives me the spade ten for my ninth trick. If plays ace and a heart, he gives me a second heart trick. If the plays a low heart from his ace doubleton, I can win and duck out his ace. And if he has king-queen of clubs and leads one, I can duck, leaving him endplayed in three suits.

What if West has a club honor? Then East can exit with a low club. But then I take dummy's ace and cash diamonds, coming down to:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 8 7 ♦ -- ♣ J 2
		EAST Robot ♠ J x ♥ A x ♦ -- ♣ K (or Q)
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10 ♥ K Q 3 ♦ -- ♣ --

Now I lead a heart from dummy. Whatever East does, he can score only two more tricks, coming to four tricks for the defense.

East chooses to cash the heart ace and exit with the heart jack. I take my nine tricks for plus 400.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K ♥ 10 8 7 6 ♦ 9 7 5 4 3 ♣ A J 2
WEST Robot ♠ 9 6 3 ♥ 9 5 4 2 ♦ J 8 ♣ K 10 9 3		EAST Robot ♠ Q J 8 7 4 ♥ A J ♦ K 10 2 ♣ Q 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10 5 2 ♥ K Q 3 ♦ A Q 6 ♣ 7 6 4

Making three notrump is worth 89%. This deal is a good example of why it's right to stretch for game in this situation. Three notrump would be quite a poor contract if I didn't have an opening bid in front of me. 

With ace-jack tight of hearts, there was nothing East could do to beat me. But if he had ace-small, he could try exiting with a low heart instead of ace and another. When my queen holds, I won't be entirely sure where the ace is. East could hold

♠ Q J x x x  ♥ J x  ♦ K 10 x  ♣ K Q x

and West could be ducking the ace. So I must decide whether to lead low, ducking out the ace, or to lead the king, smothering the jack. I rate to get it right, since leading the king is playing for both for one specific distribution of hight cards and for East and West each to have made good plays. But giving me that option is East's only chance.

I said I saw no harm in showing my four-card spade suit over Stayman. Actually, there could be harm if you have an agreement not to show it. Give North the same hand without the spade king or the club ace, for example. If he knows I won't bid two spades, he can bid Stayman to reach a safer partscore. But he can't afford to do that without a specific agreement that you will never bid two spades. I might be persuaded to make that agreement after a first- or second-seat opening that promises a five-card suit. But I can't see making it an unconditional agreement.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q 2  ♥ A  ♦ K Q J 8 5 2  ♣ A 8 3 2

I open with one diamond, partner bids one heart. I have five diamond tricks, two aces, and half a trick from the fourth club. Seven and half tricks is worth a three-diamond bid, but with six-four, it's better to bid your four-card suit first. We could miss a club slam if I rebid three diamonds.

I rebid two clubs, and partner shows a preference with two diamonds. Now I bid three diamonds, essentially showing a hand worth three diamonds on the previous round but with a club suit on the side. Partner obligingly bids three notrump. Everyone passes, and RHO leads the deuce of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 2 ♥ A ♦ K Q J 8 5 2 ♣ A 8 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A J 7 3 ♥ J 10 8 7 5 ♦ 7 3 ♣ J 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	3 ♦	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Partner's three notrump is a bit pushy without a fitting diamond honor. I might have passed three diamonds with his hand, but three notrump isn't a bad spot. If diamonds split, I have eight tricks. I can try a spade finesse for my ninth. If the opponents don't shift to clubs when they win the diamond ace, I can even afford to lose the spade finesse. The defense will be able to take only a diamond, a spade, and two hearts.

I win in dummy with the heart ace. East plays the six. I want the six to look encouraging, so I must conceal the five. The seven is a better falsecard than the eight. If West thinks the six is high, then it would deny the seven, so the seven is "the card I'm known to hold." Or, more accurately, "the card I want to be known to hold." Accordingly, I play the seven.

At trick two, I lead the diamond king from dummy. East plays the four, and I follow with the seven to conceal the fact that East's four is low. West wins with the ace.

West continues with the six of diamonds. I win with dummy's queen, and East follows with the nine.

The fact that West is defending passively rather than try to cash heart tricks suggests he knows I have only eight cashing tricks. He can't know that unless he has both black kings. If I needed to, I would try to maneuver some kind of endplay to avoid the spade finesse. But, since the opponents have only two winners to cash, I can afford to lose the finesse.

Do I have any shot at an overtrick if the opponents don't cash their hearts when West wins the spade king? Maybe. The defense doesn't know I have four spades. If I cash diamonds, someone may pitch a spade from four. Can I afford to cash them? If I cash two diamonds, I'll be down to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 2 ♥  ♦ 5 2 ♣ A 8 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A J 7 3 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ -- ♣ J

What do I pitch on the next diamond? I can't afford a second heart discard, and pitching a spade gives up on the overtrick. So I will have to take the spade finesse now. Since cashing two diamonds won't apply much pressure, perhaps I'm better off losing the spade finesse immediately before West gathers more information.

I lead the spade queen--six--three--king. West unfortunately continues with the eight of spades. The spade continuation killed the only entry to my hand and any chance of creating problems for the defense. I don't see anything I can do other than cash my tricks. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 2 ♥ A ♦ K Q J 8 5 2 ♣ A 8 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 8 ♥ K 9 4 2 ♦ A 6 ♣ K 9 7 6		EAST Robot ♠ 9 6 5 4 ♥ Q 6 3 ♦ 10 9 4 ♣ Q 10 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A J 7 3 ♥ J 10 8 7 5 ♦ 7 3 ♣ J 4

+400 is worth a surprising 89%. Most of the field is rebidding two diamonds over one heart. I don't understand. Even if you have some grudge against the club suit, why not bid three diamonds? Two diamonds is a massive underbid. What are they teaching beginning bridge players these days that a jump rebid in your suit shows? 

I realize not everyone thinks in terms of playing tricks. But what I learned as a novice from Goren's Contract Bridge Complete was that a jump rebid showed 16 to 19 total points (HCP and distribution) and a good six-card suit. Even after deducting a point for the unprotected spade queen, this hand is still worth 18 total points, so it's not even close. It's a maximum three diamond bid by Goren's standard. I need to pick up a beginner's book and see what they're teaching them.

West had some difficult problems defending three notrump. His first problem was on opening lead. He did well not to lead the unbid suit, which would have given the defense no chance. Whether a heart or a club lead is better is unclear. A club attacks dummy's entry but may simply give a trick away. As it happens, a club lead makes the defense easy. But, since dummy is very likely to hold a singleton heart, West's choice of a heart is reasonable, and suffices if the defense is accurate thereafter.

Let's sit in West's seat and try to gauge his best defense. What should we do after winning the diamond ace? It's hard to see declarer's bidding game without the spade ace. If he has it, he has eight tricks. We could try to cash three heart tricks, then exit with a diamond and wait for the setting trick. But if declarer has five hearts, cashing hearts sets up his ninth trick in the heart suit. So for that defense to work, I would need to find partner with queen-ten or queen-jack fourth of hearts. That's pretty optimistic. And partner might have signaled with the ten or queen from that holding.

Since a heart continuation doesn't look promising. It looks as if our options are to switch to a club, hoping partner has the queen, or to defend passively by exiting with a diamond. If declarer has the spade jack, we might as well switch to a club. A passive defense would give declarer time to set up his ninth trick in spades. But if partner has the spade jack, there is no reason to risk a club shift. A passive defense is better.

In short, a club switch is right if partner has the club queen and declarer has the spade jack, and a diamond exit is right if declarer has the club queen and partner has the spade jack. That looks like a toss-up. But is it? 

A passive defense needs more than just those two cards to be right. It also needs partner to have the club jack. If declarer has it, he can simply take a club finesse. In fact, if declarer reads the layout, it also need partner to have the heart queen. If declarer has it, he can run diamonds, coming down to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ A 8 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 ♥ K 9 ♦ -- ♣ K 9		EAST Robot ♠ J ♥ x x x ♦ -- ♣ J x
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A x ♥ Q x ♦ -- ♣ Q x

Now ace and a spade endplays us. 

So a passive defense is playing for four cards to be right, whereas a club shift is playing for only two cards to be right. A club shift looks like the right defense. 

Actually, maybe we can do better. At least if our partner were a human rather than a robot. If we aren't going to defend passively, we don't need the diamond for an exit card. So we can duck the first diamond to get more information. Partner's first diamond should be count. But if partner began with three diamonds, he has the ten and nine left and can give suit preference.

If partner plays the nine, we can't be sure he has the club queen, since he has to signal one way or the other, and he may have nothing to say. But one thing we can be sure of: If he plays the ten, he doesn't have the club queen. He wouldn't go out of his way to play a high diamond with something in clubs. So if he plays the ten, we can try a heart switch in desperation. Maybe we can run hearts after all. Or maybe he has the heart queen and jack-ten of clubs and can win and put a club through.

So that's my plan: Duck the first diamond and win the second. Then play a club unless partner's carding tells me a club isn't going to work. 

.