Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ 9 2  ♥ 8 6 5 4  ♦ A Q 10 5 3  ♣ A K

Unsurprisingly, Alex bid and played this hand exactly as I did and for exactly the same reasons. You can watch her analysis on my YouTube channel:

Two passes to me. I open with one diamond, LHO bids one spade, partner bids three diamonds (weak), and RHO bids three spades.

We have a ten-card diamond fit, so the Law says I should compete to the four-level. Even so, I wouldn't compete with no expectation of beating four spades. Four diamonds here is called a "one-under bid." Normally, a player who pre-empts is out of the auction and leaves further decisions to partner. But a bid one under the opponents' game invites him back in. Specifically, it invites him to double if he has good defense for his pre-empt. Since I have three likely tricks on defense, I would be happy to hear partner double.

I bid four diamonds, and LHO goes on to four spades--pass--pass back to me.

Given partner didn't double, should I sacrifice in five diamonds? It seems unlikely that five diamonds will go down three, so it will be a good save if four spades makes.

At IMPs, the answer is clearly "no." I have decent chances to beat this. Even the queen of spades in partner's hand might be enough if declarer decides to hook me for it. And the upside is small even if saving is right. I'm risking eight imps to gain three. So at IMPs, I would pass and hope for the best. At matchpoints, however, some would argue that passing isn't allowed. If I think four spades is 51% to go down, I should double. If I think it's 51% to go make, I should save. Passing, they say, can never be the percentage action.

That argument would hold if it were likely that four spades or five diamonds would be played at every table. And that everyone would take the same number of tricks in those contracts. But that's not necessarily the case here.

For example, if some tables play in three spades making, a five-diamond sacrifice risks more than it stands to gain. If four spades makes, saving picks up half a matchpoint for every pair in four spades or five diamonds. If it goes down, conceding 300 in five diamonds loses half a matchpoint to those same pairs plus a full matchpoint for every pair in three spades. So even if four spades is a slight favorite to make, saving is not the percentage action.

Similarly, if four spades makes five at some tables and we find the defense to hold it to four, a double will have cost more than it stood to gain. If that scenario is possible, a slight chance of beating four spades isn't sufficient to double.

It looks to me like pretty much a toss-up whether four spades makes or not. So I pass. Partner leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ J 7 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
	♦ 4	EAST Phillip ♠ 9 2 ♥ 8 6 5 4 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ A K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
Pass	Pass	1 ♦	1 ♠
3 ♦	3 ♠	4 ♦	4 ♠
(All pass)

I take the ace, dropping declarer's king. We have three top tricks. If partner has queen third of clubs or a heart trick, we can beat this--provided we defend correctly. If partner has queen third of clubs, I must unblock. Give declarer

(A) ♠ Q J x x x  ♥ A K x x ♦ K  ♣ x x x .

If don't unblock, he can strip the hand and endplay me. On the other hand, if partner has the king of hearts, I may need to lead a heart before cashing the clubs. If declarer has

(B) ♠ Q J x x x x  ♥ A x x ♦ K  ♣ Q J x ,

then if I cash clubs and play a heart, declarer can win, draw trump, and pitch both his heart losers on dummy's clubs. It's true hand (B) gives partner

♠ x  ♥ K J x x ♦ x x x x x  ♣ x x x ,

in which case he might have made a negative double. But I, for one, wouldn't. The opponents have the master suit. If we outbid them, it won't be in a four-four heart fit. It will be because we have a massive diamond fit. So three diamonds looks better than a negative double.

How do I decide what to do? Playing with a partner I trust, I would cash the club king. If partner has the heart king, he will discourage, and I'll shift to a heart.

My robot partner is no help, however. I'll have to decide what to do on my own. (A) is more likely than (B) a priori, since it gives declarer a more balanced distribution in the majors. In addition, if partner happens to have the ace of hearts or if he has the king and declarer finesses when I shift, cashing both clubs will result in down two. So cashing clubs looks right.

Next question: What order should I cash my clubs in? If I were hoping for a signal, I would have to cash the king first. Since I intend to cash both of them whatever partner plays, perhaps I should cash the ace first to show my doubleton. But is that really necessary? If I cash two clubs and play a heart to partner, there is nothing for partner to do but return a club and hope I ruff it. He knows a diamond isn't cashing. And a heart return is playing me for the other heart honor, which declarer must have for his four-spade bid. So there is no reason to telegraph my doubleton to declarer. If he's missing the heart king, I want him to think it's safe to finesse. 

I cash the king of clubs--deuce--three--five. Now ace of clubs--jack--four--six. Now the eight of hearts.

Declarer rises with the ace of hearts, draws trump, and concedes a heart trick for down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ J 7 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 6 ♥ K 9 7 ♦ 9 8 6 4 2 ♣ 10 4 3		EAST Phillip ♠ 9 2 ♥ 8 6 5 4 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ A K
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 8 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 2 ♦ K ♣ Q J 2

Plus 50 is worth 61%. Declarer didn't even try to make his contract? Why was he so sure the heart finesse was off--and that I had the doubleton club despite my carding? Weirdly, the declarers who were allowed to play three spades did finesse and suffered a club ruff. So everyone who played spades--either three or four--went down one. That seems backwards to me. In three, I would play safe for my contract. You don't want to go down in a partscore when some will be in game. In four, I would try to make it.

How about my double or save decision? If I double, we get 100%. If we save, we get 4%. Since we got well above average for passing, it was right not to flip a coin.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 25 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither side vulnerable

♠ K 7 2  ♥ A K 9  ♦ A K 6  ♣ K 9 4 3

If you prefer, you can watch Alex describes the bidding and play on my YouTube channel:

Three passes to me. I have 23 casino points, so I'm not passing it out. I open with two notrump. Partner bids three hearts, a transfer to spades. I bid three spades, and partner bids three notrump.

When you open one notrump, you should pass this auction with a 4-3-3-3 pattern. When partner transfers and bids three notrump, he shows a balanced hand, since he would bid a second suit if he had one. After a two-notrump opening, however, partner doesn't have room to show a second suit unless he's willing to bid past three notrump. He could have a singleton. He could even be five-five. So declining to correct to four spades is dangerous.

Even if you knew partner was balanced, it still might be right to correct. When your high cards are concentrated in one hand, you often have communication problems in notrump.

Consider this: Partner has no slam interest, so the opponents, on balance, have more HCP than partner does. They also have the same number of spades. So the opponents are more likely to hold the spade ace than partner. If they can hold up twice, they may disconnect you from dummy. In spades, you can reach dummy with ruffs.

So, in my view, passing three notrump would be a mistake. I correct to four spades, and everyone passes. LHO leads the deuce of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 9 6 5 4 ♥ 6 5 ♦ Q J ♣ A 10 7 5
	♦ 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 7 2 ♥ A K 9 ♦ A K 6 ♣ K 9 4 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	3 ♠
Pass	3 NT	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

I probably have a club loser. So I'll need to hold my trump losers to two to make this. I can lead toward my spade king. If that loses to the ace, I can lead a spade from my hand and guess whether to play the nine or jack from dummy. Actually, it's not much of a guess. If West started with three spades, it's even money. But if he started with four, I must play the nine.

I win with the queen of diamond in dummy. East follows with the three. I play a low spade. East rises with the ace; West plays the three. That's a good start toward losing only two trump tricks.

East shifts to the ten of hearts--ace--seven--five.

If I had the eight of spades, I could consider protecting against a four-one break by going to dummy with the club ace and leading low to the eight. That gives up on an overtrick if West started with queen doubleton. But that's unlikely, since East probably wouldn't have hopped with ace third. Since I don't have the eight, it's moot. There is nothing I can do about four spades in East. I might as well cash the king of spades. I do. West plays the ten; East, the eight.

Now my only problem is the club suit. I could strip the red suits, then throw them in. Unfortunately, the only thing I have to throw them in with is a trump. With no trumps in my hand, they can then exit safely with a red card. Still, stripping the hand is worthwhile. In fact, it's worthwhile for two reasons.

I cash the king of hearts--eight--six--four, then ruff a heart in dummy. West plays the jack; East, the queen. Now ace and king of diamonds, pitching a club from dummy. I exit with a spade. West takes the queen, and East pitches the three of hearts. We're down to this position with West on lead:

	NORTH Robot ♠ J ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ A 10 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ K 9 4 3

Reason one to strip the hand: If West began with four clubs, he's now endplayed. That reason doesn't pan out. He exits with a diamond. I ruff in dummy and East follows.

What's reason two? I now know no one started with four clubs. If I cashed a high club without stripping the hand and fourth hand dropped an honor, it would be right, by restricted choice, for me to finesse against the other honor. But now that I know no one has four clubs, no one can have a singleton honor. If an honor drops, I know to play for queen-jack doubleton.

So no more 20% boards for doing the right thing. By tightening up the position, we've found a way to outsmart restricted choice.

I plays a club to the king. Sadly, no honor drops. So I make only four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 9 6 5 4 ♥ 6 5 ♦ Q J ♣ A 10 7 5
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 3 ♥ J 8 7 ♦ 8 5 4 2 ♣ J 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ A 8 ♥ Q 10 4 3 2 ♦ 10 9 7 3 ♣ Q 8
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 7 2 ♥ A K 9 ♦ A K 6 ♣ K 9 4 3

Plus 420 is worth 62%. That's surprising. It looks as if anyone who chooses to pass three notrump should luck out and score 430. Say West finds his best lead of a heart. You duck. They continue hearts. You win, lead a diamond to the queen and a spade up. East takes his ace--either on this trick or the next--and continues hearts. Now you drive the spade queen. West is out of hearts, so you take ten tricks.

I still think passing is right. Partner might have had a stiff heart instead of two small. Hearts might have been four-four. Or the late spade entry might have been in the hand with long hearts. It seems you need quite a bit of luck for three notrump to be right. You also need a modicum of skill. Two of the three players who played three notrump went down, which is why I scored above average for making four spades.

Be sure to play in this week's Free Weekly Instant Tournament on BBO. Then we can compare results over the next eight weeks. See you then.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 25 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 7 6 3  ♥ Q 10 8 2  ♦ A K 4  ♣ 7

I open with one spade in first seat. Partner bids one notrump. I rebid two hearts. Partner raises, and I go on to four hearts.

Alex describes the play on my YouTube channel. If you prefer, you can read on instead.

West leads the five of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ J 7 6 4 ♦ Q J 7 3 2 ♣ Q J
	♣ 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 6 3 ♥ Q 10 8 2 ♦ A K 4 ♣ 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

I'm off two high hearts and a club. I should be cold unless trumps are four-one.

How will the play go? East will win this trick and try to cash another club. I might as well ruff with the eight to unblock in case West has four trumps, It might not matter, but I don't see how ruffing with the eight can hurt.

After ruffing, I'll continue with the heart queen. The most awkward continuation is that they win and give me a ruff sluff. We saw last week how a ruff sluff can create problems for declarer. If the opponents are experts--or even if they read last week's blog--they might give me a ruff-sluff just to give me a headache. But it takes a good player to do that. If an average player--or an average robot--gives you a ruff-sluff, he probably has something in mind. And attacking your trumps because they aren't splitting is a likely reason.

Let's say I believe that's what's going on. (I'm not saying I will. I haven't decided yet.) Is there anything I can do if trumps are four-one? Maybe. As long as it's West who has the trump length.

The way to solve problems like this is to work backwards. Like solving a maze. Imagine the ending you want to reach, then figure out how to get there. If West is 2-4-3-4 or 3-4-2-4, I can strip him of all his pointed cards, but I can't strip him of that last club, so the ending will be four cards. Perhaps something like this, with the lead in my hand.

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ J 7 ♦ J 7 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ K 9 5 ♦ -- ♣ x
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ x x ♥ 10 2 ♦ -- ♣ --

If my spades are winners, I'm home. I lead a spade. If West ruffs, I overruff and ruff a diamond with the ten. No matter what West does, he can't score more than his high heart.

So how can I reach this ending? I'll need to cash five tricks and West must follow to all of them. If he has a doubleton diamond, I can cash only two diamonds, so, when they lead the third round of clubs, I must pitch a diamond and ruff in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ J 7 ♦ Q J 7 3 2 ♣ --
	♣ x ♦ A ♣ x ♥ 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 6 3 ♥ 10 2 ♦ K 4 ♣ --

Now I cash two diamonds and dummy's queen of spades, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ J 7 ♦ J 7 3 ♣ --
	♠ Q ♠ x ♠ 3 ♠ x
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 6 ♥ 10 2 ♦ -- ♣ --

West, I hope, is down to three trumps, a club, and either two spades or a spade and a diamond. I have to guess which. If he has another diamond, I cash a diamond and lead a spade to my hand, reaching the desired end position. If he has two spades, I cash the ace and king of spades to reach the same end position. Hopefully I have some clues by the time I have to decide.

Back to trick one. I play a club from dummy, and East takes the ace. Surprisingly, he doesn't play another club. He switches to the six of diamonds. What's that all about? I play the ace, and West ruffs with the three of hearts. Oh. That's what it's about. I've lost two tricks and I still have to lose to the ace and king of hearts. My only hope is the defense manages to crash them.

West plays the club king, and I ruff. I lead the queen of hearts. West plays the king. Crashing isn't going to do me any good now. If East wins with a stiff ace, he can just give his partner another diamond ruff to beat me.

East follows with the nine. West plays a heart to his partner's ace, and I claim. Down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ J 7 6 4 ♦ Q J 7 3 2 ♣ Q J
WEST Robot ♠ J 9 8 4 ♥ K 5 3 ♦ -- ♣ K 9 8 5 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ 10 2 ♥ A 9 ♦ 10 9 8 6 5 ♣ A 10 6 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 6 3 ♥ Q 10 8 2 ♦ A K 4 ♣ 7

Minus 100 is dead average.

East did well to work out to shift to a diamond at trick two. West might have helped him out on opening lead. The way to do that is with an alarm-clock signal. An alarm clock is any card that partner can read as a lie. It wakes partner up and alerts him that you need him to do something unusual--often to give you ruff in a side suit.

Playing fourth best leads, the normal alarm clock is lowest from a known long suit. If West had overcalled or pre-empted in clubs, the deuce would wake East up immediately, since it can't be fourth best. In this case, the deuce probably wouldn't work, since East doesn't know that West doesn't have four clubs. The nine might work better. Note an unusual spot lead is not suit-preference. It simply suggests an unusual defense. It's up to partner to work out which suit you want returned.

If you play third and lowest opening leads, lowest from a long suit doesn't work as an alarm clock. Partner will simply assume you have an odd number. The systemic alarm clock is fourth best from five or six; fifth best from seven. That card is usually readable as a lie. In this case, if West were known to have long clubs, the five would wake East up. It can't be lowest from five. And it can't be third best from six, since that places declarer with the eight or nine--impossible since he has no more clubs. Unfortunately, West isn't known to have long clubs, so the five could be third best from four. It would be a silent alarm.

Speaking of alarm clocks, set yours for Sunday next week. Join me then for the last deal in this set.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 25 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K J 9 6 5 4  ♥ Q 2  ♦ A K 7 5  ♣ K

Several readers have complained about this blogger platform and their annoying ads, so I've been looking for another platform. I considered Substack. But I decided why not move into the 21st century? YouTube videos about bridge and chess have become quite popular, so why not give it a try?

It's a bit of work to produce them, but I think the presentation is better. It's certainly easier to follow the play when you have dynamic graphics. Give it a try and tell me what you think. For those who prefer reading to watching, the text version is below. But rest assured nothing is in the text that isn't also in the video:

I open with one spade in second seat and partner bids one notrump.

Should I rebid two spades or two diamonds? The answer depends on what I intend to do if partner rebids two notrump. If I intend to bid game, then I should bid two diamonds. Then, over two notrump, I can bid three spades, forcing. If I don't want to bid game, then I should bid two spades. Now, if partner bids two notrump, my three-diamond rebid is non-forcing. With this hand, I want to reach game if partner invites, so I bid two diamonds.

Partner takes a preference to two spades. A useful rule of thumb when partner shows a preference is to bid one less than you would have bid had he raised. If you would have bid game over a single raise, then invite. If you would have invited, then pass. I would have invited over an immediate two spade-bid, so I pass now.

Two spades ends the auction. West leads the four of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 8 ♥ 9 3 ♦ Q 10 8 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 7
	♣ 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 9 6 5 4 ♥ Q 2 ♦ A K 7 5 ♣ K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	(All pass)

I'm off three top tricks. Game depends on picking up the spade suit. I wouldn't mind being in game vulnerable at IMPs. But at matchpoints, I'm glad I stayed low.

I play low from dummy, and East takes the ace. He shifts to the jack of hearts. I cover with the queen, and West takes the ace. He continues with the five of hearts to East's king. West should be returning a count card: his highest heart to show an even number or his lowest to show an odd number. But the robots don't do that (much to my annoyance when I defend with them). So East doesn't know whether I have a third heart or not.

Given that, if East has queen third of spades, he will play another heart, trying to tap dummy, so I can't take a spade finesse. If I don't have a third heart, that will give me a ruff-sluff. But so what? East knows I have no loser to pitch, so a ruff-sluff won't help me.

When East leads a heart, I'll ruff in my hand and play a spade to the ace for a finesse. Is there anything I can do if East has queen fourth of spades? Maybe. If West's singleton is the ten, dummy's eight of spades will hold. Then I can ruff a club to my hand and play a diamond to dummy, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 10 8 ♣ Q J 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J ♥ -- ♦ A K 7 ♣ --

Now I lead clubs. If East ruffs, I overruff and claim. If he refuses to ruff, I pitch all my diamonds and coup him at trick twelve.

But East surprises me by shifting to the five of clubs. East might have queen doubleton of spades. But There's no way he has queen third and didn't try to tap dummy. Does that mean I should take a backwards finesse against West?

A backwards finesse picks up queen third or queen doubleton of spades in the West hand--three cases each for a total of six cases. Finessing against East picks up those same six cases in the East hand. In addition, it picks up queen-ten third (three cases) and queen-ten doubleton (one case), for a total of ten cases. Thus, a priori, and ignoring four-one breaks, the forward finesse is a 10 to 6 favorite. But knowing East can't have queen third or queen-ten third changes that. The odds are now 6 to 4 in favor of the backwards finesse.

Could I be wrong about this inference? I don't see how. There is no reason from East's point of view that I can't be 5-3-4-1. So if he has queen third of spades, a heart return is automatic.

I lead the jack of spades--three--eight--deuce. Yay!. Now a low spade--seven--ace--ten. And a diamond to my hand. That wins, and I claim ten tricks.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 8 ♥ 9 3 ♦ Q 10 8 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 7
WEST Robot ♠ Q 7 3 ♥ A 8 7 6 5 ♦ J 4 ♣ 8 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ 10 2 ♥ K J 10 4 ♦ 9 3 2 ♣ A 5 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 9 6 5 4 ♥ Q 2 ♦ A K 7 5 ♣ K

We didn't need to reach game. Plus 170 is worth 93%.

It was careless of East not to return a third heart. I would have no reason to take the backwards finesse if he did. Perhaps he was avoiding a possible ruff-sluff on principle. Inexperienced players often avoid giving ruff-sluffs, because they know it's sometimes a bad idea. But if you know declarer has no losers to pitch, a ruff-sluff is something you should routinely consider. It can't hurt. And sometimes good things happen.

For example, change my hand to

♠ K J x x x  ♥ Q x  ♦ K J x x  ♣ K x

What do I do if East plays a third heart at trick four? If I ruff in dummy, I can no longer take a spade finesse. If I ruff in my hand, I'm in danger of being tapped out. I would hate to find myself in that position.

And yes. I know. If East held the queen of spades and could see my hand, failing to play a heart to talk me into a backward finesse would be a very clever play. But he can't see my hand. And, frankly, this East isn't that clever even if he could see it.